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338 Blog
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Canada
Electoral districts
All 338 electoral districts
Atlantic Canada
Quebec
Ontario
Prairies
Alberta
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Territories
Parties
LPC
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Federal simulator
Yellowhead (federal)
MP: Gerald Soroka (CPC)
Latest projection: February 5, 2023
CPC safe hold
Yellowhead
70% ± 8%
CPC
12% ± 5%
NDP
5% ± 3%
LPC
5% ± 4%
PPC
4% ± 2%
IND
4% ± 3%
MAV
CPC 2021
66.16%
338Canada Popular vote projection | February 5, 2023
50%
100%
Yellowhead
>99%
CPC
<1%
NDP
<1%
LPC
Odds of winning | February 5, 2023
Popular vote projection | Yellowhead
LPC 5% ± 3%
CPC 70% ± 8%
NDP 12% ± 5%
PPC 5% ± 4%
Popular vote projection % | Yellowhead
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
LPC
CPC
NDP
PPC
Odds of winning | Yellowhead
LPC <1%
CPC >99%
NDP <1%
GPC <1%
Odds of winning the most seats
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
LPC
CPC
NDP
GPC
Recent electoral history | Yellowhead
2015
2019
2021
Proj.
CPC
72.3%
82.1%
66.16%
70% ± 8%
PPC
0.0%
2.8%
12.7%
5% ± 4%
NDP
9.0%
7.0%
11.76%
12% ± 5%
LPC
14.2%
5.2%
5.62%
5% ± 3%
BQ
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0% ± 0%
GPC
2.9%
2.3%
0.0%
0% ± 1%