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Recent electoral history | Souris—Moose Mountain


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 76% ± 6% 83.9% 76.0% 84.0% LPC 13% ± 5% 4.1% 4.2% 9.8% NDP 7% ± 4% 8.0% 8.0% 4.6% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.8% 9.2% 0.0%

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338Canada Souris—Moose Mountain projection

Latest update: March 8, 2026

Souris—Moose Mountain 69% 82% 76% ± 6% CPC 8% 17% 13% ± 5% LPC 3% 11% 7% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 84.0% 338Canada vote projection | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Souris—Moose Mountain >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Souris—Moose Mountain

LPC 13% ± 5% CPC 76% ± 6% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Souris—Moose Mountain 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 78% LPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 78% LPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 78% LPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 84% LPC 10% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 84% LPC 10% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 84% LPC 10% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 84% LPC 10% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 84% LPC 10% NDP 5% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 84% LPC 10% NDP 5% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 84% LPC 10% NDP 5% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 83% LPC 10% NDP 5% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 82% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 81% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 81% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 81% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 81% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 81% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 81% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 80% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 81% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 80% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 81% LPC 10% NDP 7% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 81% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 79% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 80% LPC 10% NDP 6% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 80% LPC 10% NDP 6% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 80% LPC 10% NDP 6% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 80% LPC 10% NDP 6% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 80% LPC 10% NDP 6% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 80% LPC 10% NDP 7% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 79% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 79% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 79% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 79% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 79% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 79% LPC 10% NDP 7% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 79% LPC 10% NDP 7% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 78% LPC 10% NDP 7% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 78% LPC 10% NDP 7% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 78% LPC 10% NDP 7% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 78% LPC 10% NDP 7% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 77% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 77% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 77% LPC 12% NDP 6% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 77% LPC 12% NDP 6% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 77% LPC 12% NDP 6% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC 76% LPC 12% NDP 7% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 CPC 76% LPC 13% NDP 7% 2026-03-08

Odds of winning | Souris—Moose Mountain

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2026-03-08


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Demographic data | Souris—Moose Mountain

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 96.3% English 1.3% Tagalog 0.5% German 0.2% French 0.2% Gujarati 0.1% Punjabi 0.1% SpanishSouris—Moose MountainSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.4% No diploma 38.5% High school 13.5% Trade 19.3% College / Cégep 3.0% Some university 11.5% Bachelor's 2.8% PostgraduateSouris—Moose MountainSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 93.2% Not visible minority 6.8% Visible minority 3.9% Filipino 1.1% South Asian 0.5% Black 0.4% Chinese 0.2% Latin American 0.2% Southeast AsianSouris—Moose MountainSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 36.8% No Religion 22.8% Catholic 12.4% United Church 8.4% Christian (n.o.s.) 6.5% Lutheran 3.3% Other Christian 2.2% Anglican 1.5% Indigenous SpiritualitySouris—Moose MountainSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 77.0% Owner 19.8% Renter 3.2% Community housingSouris—Moose MountainSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 63.2% Employed 32.6% Not in labour force 4.3% UnemployedSouris—Moose MountainSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 89.9% Non-Indigenous 10.1% Indigenous identity 6.7% First Nations 3.2% Metis 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleSouris—Moose MountainSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 90.9% Car / truck / van 6.8% Walking 1.4% Other 0.5% Bicycle 0.4% Public transitSouris—Moose MountainSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.