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Canada

Souris—Moose Mountain



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Souris—Moose Mountain


Liberal Aziz Mian
Conservative Steven Bonk
NDP Sheena Muirhead-Koops
Green Remi Rheault
Canadian Future Lyndon Dayman
Independent Travis Mitchell Patron

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Souris—Moose Mountain 79% ± 7% CPC 11% ± 5% LPC 7% ± 4%▲ NDP CPC 2021 76.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Souris—Moose Mountain >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Souris—Moose Mountain

LPC 11% ± 5% CPC 79% ± 7% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Souris—Moose Mountain 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 77% NDP 8% LPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 76% NDP 8% LPC 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 76% LPC 9% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 76% LPC 9% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 76% LPC 9% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 76% LPC 9% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 76% LPC 9% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 76% LPC 9% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 76% LPC 10% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 76% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 76% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 76% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 76% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 76% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 76% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 76% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 76% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 77% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 77% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 77% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 76% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 77% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 77% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 77% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 79% LPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 79% LPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 78% LPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 79% LPC 12% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 79% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 79% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 79% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 79% LPC 11% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Souris—Moose Mountain

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Souris—Moose Mountain



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 83.9% 76.0% 79% ± 7% LPC 4.1% 4.2% 11% ± 5% NDP 8.0% 8.0% 7% ± 4% GPC 1.7% 0.1% 1% ± 1% PPC 1.8% 9.2% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.