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Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: April 12, 2026
LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection46.2% ± 3.7%
Current number of MPs174
Current seat projection210 [178-251]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 12, 2026 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 11.3 seat/% 210 [178-251] 46% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

LPC 210 [178-251] April 12, 2026 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 6/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 47/78 ON 89/122 MB 7/14 SK 4/14 AB 7/37 BC 25/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | April 12, 2026

38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 42.5% 2025 43.8% 46.2% ± 3.7% Max. 50.0% Probabilities % LPC April 12, 2026

Seat projection | April 12, 2026

135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats Min. 178 210 Max. 251 Probabilities % LPC April 12, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Districts and MPs Current party Projection
1.
Serge Cormier
L LPC safe
2.
Tom Osborne
L LPC safe
3.
Francis Scarpaleggia
L LPC safe
4.
Darren Fisher
L LPC safe
5.
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
L LPC safe
6.
Marie-France Lalonde
L LPC safe
7.
Patricia Lattanzio
L LPC safe
8. L LPC safe
9.
Lena Metlege Diab
L LPC safe
10. L LPC safe
11.
Sean Casey
L LPC safe
12.
Shaun Chen
L LPC safe
13.
Rob Oliphant
L LPC safe
14.
Ginette Petitpas Taylor
L LPC safe
15.
Julie Dabrusin
L LPC safe
16. L LPC safe
17. L LPC safe
18.
Mark Carney
L LPC safe
19. L LPC safe
20. L LPC safe
21.
Leslie Church
L LPC safe
22. L LPC safe
23.
David McGuinty
L LPC safe
24.
Alexandra Mendes
L LPC safe
25.
Dominic LeBlanc
L LPC safe
26.
Ginette Lavack
L LPC safe
27.
Danielle Martin
L LPC safe
28.
Sameer Zuberi
L LPC safe
29.
Greg Fergus
L LPC safe
30.
Terry Duguid
L LPC safe
31.
Wade Grant
L LPC safe
32.
Evan Solomon
L LPC safe
33.
Kody Blois
L LPC safe
34. L LPC safe
35.
Steven MacKinnon
L LPC safe
36.
Michael Coteau
L LPC safe
37.
Taleeb Noormohamed
L LPC safe
38.
Melanie Joly
L LPC safe
39.
Mark Gerretsen
L LPC safe
40.
Eric St-Pierre
L LPC safe
41.
Kevin Lamoureux
L LPC safe
42.
Anita Vandenbeld
L LPC safe
43.
Jenna Sudds
L LPC safe
44.
Joanne Thompson
L LPC safe
45.
Emmanuella Lambropoulos
L LPC safe
46. L LPC safe
47. L LPC safe
48.
Paul Connors
L LPC safe
49. L LPC safe
50.
James Maloney
L LPC safe
51.
Shannon Miedema
L LPC safe
52.
Abdelhaq Sari
L LPC safe
53.
Peter Schiefke
L LPC safe
54. L LPC safe
55.
Heath MacDonald
L LPC safe
56.
Jonathan Wilkinson
L LPC safe
57. L LPC safe
58. L LPC safe
59.
Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault
L LPC safe
60.
Doug Eyolfson
L LPC safe
61.
Bardish Chagger
L LPC safe
62. L LPC safe
63.
Mike Kelloway
L LPC safe
64. L LPC safe
65.
Joel Lightbound
L LPC safe
66.
Will Greaves
L LPC safe
67.
Sophie Chatel
L LPC safe
68. L LPC safe
69.
Karina Gould
L LPC safe
70.
Jennifer McKelvie
L LPC safe
71.
Angelo Iacono
L LPC safe
72.
Arielle Kayabaga
L LPC safe
73.
Giovanna Mingarelli
L LPC safe
74.
Hedy Fry
L LPC safe
75.
Yasir Naqvi
L LPC safe
76. L LPC safe
77.
Annie Koutrakis
L LPC safe
78. L LPC safe
79.
Julie Dzerowicz
L LPC safe
80.
Peter Fragiskatos
L LPC safe
81.
Rachel Bendayan
L LPC safe
82.
Carlos Leitao
L LPC safe
83.
Marjorie Michel
L LPC safe
84.
Jessica Fancy-Landry
L LPC safe
85.
Faycal El-Khoury
L LPC safe
86.
Francois-Philippe Champagne
L LPC safe
87.
Elisabeth Briere
L LPC safe
88.
Dominique O’Rourke
L LPC safe
89.
Steven Guilbeault
L LPC safe
90. L LPC safe
91.
Stephanie McLean
L LPC safe
92.
Sherry Romanado
L LPC safe
93.
Louis Villeneuve
L LPC safe
94. L LPC safe
95.
Marianne Dandurand
L LPC safe
96.
Marie-Gabrielle Menard
L LPC safe
97.
Anthony Housefather
L LPC safe
98. L LPC safe
99.
Emma Harrison
L LPC safe
100. L LPC safe
101. L LPC safe
102.
John Zerucelli
L LPC safe
103.
Juanita Nathan
L LPC safe
104.
Yvan Baker
L LPC safe
105. L LPC safe
106.
Eleanor Olszewski
L LPC safe
107.
Kent McDonald
L LPC safe
108.
Maggie Chi
L LPC safe
109.
Viviane Lapointe
L LPC safe
110.
Chris Bittle
L LPC safe
111. L LPC safe
112.
Ali Ehsassi
L LPC safe
113.
Tim Hodgson
L LPC safe
114.
Caroline Desrochers
L LPC safe
115.
Fares Al Soud
L LPC safe
116.
Sean Fraser
L LPC safe
117.
Madeleine Chenette
L LPC safe
118.
Iqwinder Gaheer
L LPC safe
119. L LPC likely
120.
Linda Lapointe
L LPC likely
121.
Adam van Koeverden
L LPC likely
122.
Ryan Turnbull
L LPC likely
123.
Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba
L LPC likely
124.
Brendan Hanley
L LPC likely
125.
Rebecca Alty
L LPC likely
126.
Charles Sousa
L LPC likely
127.
Jean-Yves Duclos
L LPC likely
128.
Sima Acan
L LPC likely
129. L LPC likely
130.
Corey Hogan
L LPC likely
131.
Bruce Fanjoy
L LPC likely
132.
Bobby Morrissey
L LPC likely
133.
Lisa Hepfner
L LPC likely
134.
Anita Anand
L LPC likely
135.
Helena Jaczek
L LPC likely
136.
Jill McKnight
L LPC likely
137.
Vince Gasparro
L LPC likely
138.
Christopher Malette
L LPC likely
139. L LPC likely
140.
Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
141.
Marcus Powlowski
L LPC likely
142. L LPC likely
143.
Wade Wei Lin Chang
L LPC likely
144.
Jacques Ramsay
L LPC likely
145. L LPC likely
146.
Steeve Lavoie
L LPC likely
147.
Philip Earle
L LPC likely
148.
Pauline Rochefort
L LPC likely
149.
Maninder Sidhu
L LPC likely
150. L LPC likely
151. L LPC likely
152. C LPC likely
153.
Rebecca Chartrand
L LPC likely
154. L LPC likely
155.
Sukh Dhaliwal
L LPC likely
156.
Randeep Sarai
L LPC likely
157. L LPC likely
158. C LPC likely
159. L LPC likely
160. C LPC likely
161.
Sonia Sidhu
L LPC likely
162. L LPC likely
163. L LPC likely
164.
Timothy Watchorn
L LPC likely
165. L LPC likely
166.
Aslam Rana
L LPC likely
167.
Kristina Tesser Derksen
L LPC likely
168.
Amandeep Sodhi
L LPC likely
169.
Gurbux Saini
L LPC likely
170.
Dalwinder Gill
C LPC likely
171.
Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]
L LPC leaning
172. L LPC leaning
173. C LPC leaning
174.
Stephen Fuhr
L LPC leaning
175.
Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]
L LPC leaning
176.
Philip Lawrence
C LPC leaning
177.
Kelly McCauley
C LPC leaning
178.
Sandra Cobena
C LPC leaning
179.
Fred Davies
C LPC leaning
180.
Raquel Dancho
C LPC leaning
181.
Natilien Joseph
L LPC leaning
182.
Greg McLean
C LPC leaning
183. C LPC leaning
184. C LPC leaning
185. C LPC leaning
186.
Carol Anstey
C LPC leaning
187.
Amarjeet Gill
C LPC leaning
188. C LPC leaning
189.
Adam Chambers
C Toss up LPC/CPC
190.
Warren Steinley
C Toss up LPC/CPC
191.
Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]
L Toss up LPC/NDP
192.
Connie Cody
C Toss up LPC/CPC
193.
Michael Kram
C Toss up LPC/CPC
194.
Corey Tochor
C Toss up LPC/CPC
195. C Toss up LPC/CPC
196.
Jagsharan Singh Mahal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
197.
Richard Martel
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
198. C Toss up LPC/CPC
199.
Scott Reid
C Toss up LPC/CPC
200.
Roman Baber
C Toss up LPC/CPC
201.
Andreanne Larouche
B Toss up LPC/BQ
202.
Éric Lefebvre
C Toss up LPC/CPC
203.
Tatiana Auguste
L Toss up LPC/BQ
204. C Toss up LPC/CPC
205.
Rhonda Kirkland
C Toss up LPC/CPC
206. C Toss up LPC/CPC
207.
Dean Allison
C Toss up LPC/CPC
208. C Toss up LPC/CPC
209. C Toss up LPC/CPC
210.
Don Davies
N Toss up LPC/NDP
211.
Jenny Kwan
N Toss up LPC/NDP
212. C Toss up LPC/CPC
213.
Scott Aitchison
C Toss up LPC/CPC
214.
Terry Dowdall
C Toss up LPC/CPC
215. C Toss up LPC/CPC
216.
Clifford Small
C Toss up LPC/CPC
217.
Vincent Neil Ho
C Toss up LPC/CPC
218.
John Williamson
C Toss up LPC/CPC
219.
Tim Uppal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
220. C Toss up LPC/CPC
221.
Kevin Waugh
C Toss up LPC/CPC
222.
Amanpreet Singh Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
223.
Rob Moore
C Toss up LPC/CPC
224.
Tamara Kronis
C Toss up LPC/CPC
225.
Patrick Bonin
B Toss up LPC/BQ
226. C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
227.
Mario Beaulieu
B Toss up LPC/BQ
228.
Ziad Aboultaif
C Toss up LPC/CPC
229.
Billy Morin
C Toss up LPC/CPC
230. C Toss up LPC/CPC
231.
Harbinder Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
232.
Eric Melillo
C Toss up LPC/CPC
233. C Toss up LPC/CPC
234. C Toss up LPC/CPC
235. C Toss up LPC/CPC
236. C Toss up LPC/CPC
237.
Ben Lobb
C Toss up LPC/CPC
238. C Toss up LPC/CPC
239.
Leah Gazan
N Toss up LPC/NDP
240. C Toss up LPC/CPC
241.
Shuv Majumdar
C Toss up LPC/CPC
242.
John Nater
C Toss up LPC/CPC
243. C CPC leaning
244.
Kurt Holman
C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
245.
Jean-Denis Garon
B BQ leaning
246. C CPC leaning
247. B BQ leaning
248. B BQ leaning
249.
Sukhman Singh Gill
C CPC leaning
250. C CPC leaning
251.
Michelle Rempel Garner
C CPC leaning
252.
Kelly DeRidder
C Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
253.
David McKenzie
C CPC leaning
254.
Lianne Rood
C CPC leaning
255. C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
256. C CPC leaning
257.
Gabriel Hardy
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
258.
Arpan Khanna
C CPC leaning
259.
Marie-Helene Gaudreau
B BQ leaning
260.
Jacob Mantle
C CPC leaning
261.
Christine Normandin
B BQ leaning
262.
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas
B BQ leaning
263. C CPC leaning
264. B BQ leaning
265.
Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay
B BQ leaning
266. C CPC leaning
267. L CPC leaning
268.
Alexandre Boulerice
N NDP likely
269. C CPC likely
270. C CPC likely
271. C CPC likely
272.
Shuv Majumdar
C CPC likely
273.
Jacques Gourde
C CPC likely
274. B BQ likely
275.
Rheal Fortin
B BQ likely
276.
Richard Bragdon
C CPC likely
277.
Gord Johns
N NDP leaning
278.
John Brassard
C CPC likely
279.
Jasraj Singh Hallan
C CPC likely
280.
Yves-Francois Blanchet
B BQ likely
281. C CPC likely
282.
Elizabeth May
G GPC likely
283.
Rachael Thomas
C CPC likely
284.
Chris Lewis
C CPC likely
285.
Leslyn Lewis
C CPC likely
286.
Michael Guglielmin
C CPC likely
287.
Martin Champoux
B BQ likely
288. C CPC likely
289. C CPC likely
290. C CPC likely
291. B BQ likely
292.
Mario Simard
B BQ likely
293.
Brad Redekopp
C CPC likely
294.
Gabriel Ste-Marie
B BQ likely
295.
Mark Strahl
C CPC likely
296. C CPC likely
297. C CPC likely
298.
Kyle Seeback
C CPC likely
299.
Anna Roberts
C CPC likely
300. C CPC likely
301. B BQ likely
302.
Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe
B BQ likely
303.
Luc Theriault
B BQ likely
304. C CPC safe
305.
Stephanie Kusie
C CPC safe
306.
Colin Reynolds
C Toss up CPC/NDP
307.
Sebastien Lemire
B BQ safe
308.
Tom Kmiec
C CPC safe
309.
Melissa Lantsman
C CPC safe
310.
Andrew Scheer
C CPC safe
311.
Kerry Diotte
C Toss up CPC/NDP