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Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: March 1, 2026
LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection44.4% ± 3.4%
Current number of MPs169
Current seat projection190 [165-231]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 1, 2026 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 11.4 seat/% 190 [165-231] 44% ± 3% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

× LPC 190 [165-231] March 1, 2026 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 43/78 ON 78/122 MB 7/14 SK 2/14 AB 8/37 BC 22/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | March 1, 2026

37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 41.0% 2025 43.8% 44.4% ± 3.4% Max. 47.7% Probabilities % LPC March 1, 2026

Seat projection | March 1, 2026

125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 165 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats 190 Max. 231 Probabilities % LPC March 1, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Districts and MPs Current party Projection
1.
Serge Cormier
L LPC safe
2.
Tom Osborne
L LPC safe
3.
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
L LPC safe
4. L LPC safe
5.
Francis Scarpaleggia
L LPC safe
6.
Darren Fisher
L LPC safe
7.
Marie-France Lalonde
L LPC safe
8. L LPC safe
9.
Lena Metlege Diab
L LPC safe
10.
Sean Casey
L LPC safe
11.
Ginette Petitpas Taylor
L LPC safe
12.
Shaun Chen
L LPC safe
13.
Rob Oliphant
L LPC safe
14.
Julie Dabrusin
L LPC safe
15.
Ginette Lavack
L LPC safe
16.
Patricia Lattanzio
L LPC safe
17. L LPC safe
18.
Wade Grant
L LPC safe
19.
Terry Duguid
L LPC safe
20.
Leslie Church
L LPC safe
21.
David McGuinty
L LPC safe
22. L LPC safe
23.
Mark Carney
L LPC safe
24. L LPC safe
25.
Taleeb Noormohamed
L LPC safe
26. LPC safe
27.
Dominic LeBlanc
L LPC safe
28. LPC safe
29. L LPC safe
30.
Evan Solomon
L LPC safe
31.
Kevin Lamoureux
L LPC safe
32.
Mark Gerretsen
L LPC safe
33.
Kody Blois
L LPC safe
34. L LPC safe
35.
Michael Coteau
L LPC safe
36.
Alexandra Mendes
L LPC safe
37.
Anita Vandenbeld
L LPC safe
38.
Sameer Zuberi
L LPC safe
39.
Joanne Thompson
L LPC safe
40.
Greg Fergus
L LPC safe
41.
Shannon Miedema
L LPC safe
42.
Steven MacKinnon
L LPC safe
43.
Jonathan Wilkinson
L LPC safe
44. L LPC safe
45. L LPC safe
46. L LPC safe
47.
Paul Connors
L LPC safe
48. L LPC safe
49.
Melanie Joly
L LPC safe
50.
Eric St-Pierre
L LPC safe
51.
James Maloney
L LPC safe
52. L LPC safe
53.
Emmanuella Lambropoulos
L LPC safe
54. L LPC safe
55.
Bardish Chagger
L LPC safe
56.
Peter Schiefke
L LPC safe
57.
Will Greaves
L LPC safe
58.
Abdelhaq Sari
L LPC safe
59.
Yasir Naqvi
L LPC safe
60.
Hedy Fry
L LPC safe
61.
Julie Dzerowicz
L LPC safe
62.
Joel Lightbound
L LPC safe
63.
Sophie Chatel
L LPC safe
64.
Peter Fragiskatos
L LPC safe
65.
Angelo Iacono
L LPC safe
66.
Annie Koutrakis
L LPC safe
67.
Rachel Bendayan
L LPC safe
68.
Stephanie McLean
L LPC safe
69.
Dominique O’Rourke
L LPC safe
70.
Marjorie Michel
L LPC safe
71.
Carlos Leitao
L LPC safe
72.
Faycal El-Khoury
L LPC safe
73.
Steven Guilbeault
L LPC safe
74.
Francois-Philippe Champagne
L LPC safe
75. L LPC safe
76.
Jenna Sudds
L LPC safe
77. L LPC safe
78.
Elisabeth Briere
L LPC safe
79. L LPC safe
80.
Doug Eyolfson
L LPC safe
81. L LPC safe
82.
Arielle Kayabaga
L LPC safe
83. L LPC safe
84. L LPC safe
85. L LPC safe
86.
Jennifer McKelvie
L LPC safe
87. L LPC safe
88.
Heath MacDonald
L LPC safe
89.
Mike Kelloway
L LPC safe
90.
Sherry Romanado
L LPC safe
91.
Karina Gould
L LPC safe
92. L LPC safe
93.
Jessica Fancy-Landry
L LPC safe
94.
Eleanor Olszewski
L LPC safe
95.
Louis Villeneuve
L LPC safe
96.
Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault
L LPC safe
97. L LPC safe
98.
Giovanna Mingarelli
L LPC safe
99.
Kent McDonald
L LPC safe
100.
Emma Harrison
L LPC safe
101.
Marianne Dandurand
L LPC safe
102. L LPC safe
103.
Marie-Gabrielle Menard
L LPC safe
104.
John Zerucelli
L LPC safe
105.
Yvan Baker
L LPC safe
106.
Juanita Nathan
L LPC safe
107.
Maggie Chi
L LPC likely
108.
Anthony Housefather
L LPC likely
109.
Chris Bittle
L LPC likely
110.
Viviane Lapointe
L LPC likely
111.
Ali Ehsassi
L LPC likely
112.
Tim Hodgson
L LPC likely
113.
Fares Al Soud
L LPC likely
114. L LPC likely
115.
Sean Fraser
L LPC likely
116.
Iqwinder Gaheer
L LPC likely
117.
Ryan Turnbull
L LPC likely
118.
Brendan Hanley
L LPC likely
119.
Rebecca Alty
L LPC likely
120. L LPC likely
121.
Corey Hogan
L LPC likely
122.
Adam van Koeverden
L LPC likely
123.
Charles Sousa
L LPC likely
124.
Sima Acan
L LPC likely
125.
Caroline Desrochers
L LPC likely
126.
Jill McKnight
L LPC likely
127.
Madeleine Chenette
L LPC likely
128.
Wade Wei Lin Chang
L LPC likely
129. L LPC likely
130.
Bobby Morrissey
L LPC likely
131.
Anita Anand
L LPC likely
132.
Rebecca Chartrand
L LPC likely
133.
Linda Lapointe
L LPC likely
134.
Helena Jaczek
L LPC likely
135.
Bruce Fanjoy
L LPC likely
136.
Christopher Malette
L LPC likely
137.
Lisa Hepfner
L LPC likely
138.
Aslam Rana
L LPC likely
139.
Vince Gasparro
L LPC likely
140.
Jean-Yves Duclos
L LPC likely
141.
Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba
L LPC likely
142. L LPC likely
143.
Marcus Powlowski
L LPC likely
144.
Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
145.
Philip Earle
L LPC likely
146. L LPC likely
147. L LPC likely
148.
Sukh Dhaliwal
L LPC likely
149. L LPC likely
150.
Randeep Sarai
L LPC likely
151. L LPC likely
152. L LPC likely
153. L LPC likely
154.
Maninder Sidhu
L LPC likely
155. L LPC likely
156.
Pauline Rochefort
L LPC leaning
157.
Dalwinder Gill
C LPC leaning
158.
Gurbux Saini
L LPC leaning
159.
Jacques Ramsay
L LPC leaning
160.
Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]
L LPC leaning
161.
Sonia Sidhu
L LPC leaning
162. L LPC leaning
163. C LPC leaning
164. L LPC leaning
165.
Amandeep Sodhi
L LPC leaning
166. L LPC leaning
167. C LPC leaning
168.
Steeve Lavoie
L LPC leaning
169. C LPC leaning
170. L LPC leaning
171.
Kristina Tesser Derksen
L LPC leaning
172.
Stephen Fuhr
L LPC leaning
173.
Greg McLean
C LPC leaning
174.
Kelly McCauley
C LPC leaning
175.
Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]
L LPC leaning
176. C LPC leaning
177.
Tim Uppal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
178. C Toss up LPC/CPC
179.
Raquel Dancho
C Toss up LPC/CPC
180.
Sandra Cobena
C Toss up LPC/CPC
181.
Jagsharan Singh Mahal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
182.
Timothy Watchorn
L Toss up LPC/BQ
183.
Amarjeet Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
184. C Toss up LPC/CPC
185. C Toss up LPC/CPC
186.
Philip Lawrence
C Toss up LPC/CPC
187.
Fred Davies
C Toss up LPC/CPC
188.
Warren Steinley
C Toss up LPC/CPC
189.
Lori Idlout
N Toss up LPC/NDP
190. C Toss up LPC/CPC
191.
Michael Kram
C Toss up LPC/CPC
192.
Don Davies
N Toss up LPC/NDP
193. C Toss up LPC/CPC
194.
Connie Cody
C Toss up LPC/CPC
195.
Adam Chambers
C Toss up LPC/CPC
196.
Billy Morin
C Toss up LPC/CPC
197.
Jenny Kwan
N Toss up LPC/NDP
198.
Corey Tochor
C Toss up LPC/CPC
199.
Scott Reid
C Toss up LPC/CPC
200. C Toss up LPC/CPC
201. C Toss up LPC/CPC
202.
Natilien Joseph
L Toss up LPC/BQ
203.
Rhonda Kirkland
C Toss up LPC/CPC
204.
Éric Lefebvre
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
205. C Toss up LPC/CPC
206. C Toss up LPC/CPC
207. C Toss up LPC/CPC
208.
Carol Anstey
C Toss up LPC/CPC
209. C Toss up LPC/CPC
210. C Toss up LPC/CPC
211.
Amanpreet Singh Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
212. C Toss up LPC/CPC
213.
Roman Baber
C Toss up LPC/CPC
214.
Kevin Waugh
C Toss up LPC/CPC
215.
Vincent Neil Ho
C Toss up LPC/CPC
216.
Vacant
Toss up LPC/BQ
217.
Ziad Aboultaif
C Toss up LPC/CPC
218. C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
219.
Richard Martel
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
220. C CPC leaning
221.
Clifford Small
C CPC leaning
222. C CPC leaning
223.
Dean Allison
C CPC leaning
224.
Terry Dowdall
C CPC leaning
225.
Tamara Kronis
C CPC leaning
226.
Leah Gazan
N NDP leaning
227.
Andreanne Larouche
B BQ leaning
228. C CPC leaning
229.
John Williamson
C CPC leaning
230. C CPC leaning
231.
Scott Aitchison
C CPC leaning
232.
Lianne Rood
C CPC leaning
233.
Shuv Majumdar
C CPC leaning
234.
Harbinder Gill
C CPC leaning
235. C CPC leaning
236. C CPC leaning
237.
Eric Melillo
C CPC leaning
238.
Rob Moore
C CPC leaning
239. C CPC leaning
240.
Patrick Bonin
B BQ leaning
241.
Michelle Rempel Garner
C CPC leaning
242.
Ben Lobb
C CPC leaning
243.
Sukhman Singh Gill
C CPC leaning
244.
Kurt Holman
C CPC leaning
245. C CPC leaning
246.
John Nater
C CPC leaning
247.
David McKenzie
C CPC leaning
248.
Kelly DeRidder
C Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
249. C CPC leaning
250.
Mario Beaulieu
B BQ likely
251. C CPC likely
252. C CPC likely
253.
Gabriel Hardy
C BQ leaning
254. C CPC likely
255. C CPC likely
256. B BQ likely
257.
Jean-Denis Garon
B BQ likely
258. B BQ likely
259. C CPC likely
260.
Shuv Majumdar
C CPC likely
261.
Arpan Khanna
C CPC likely
262. C CPC likely
263.
Jacob Mantle
C CPC likely
264.
Gord Johns
N NDP leaning
265.
Elizabeth May
G GPC likely
266. C CPC likely
267.
Marie-Helene Gaudreau
B BQ likely
268.
Jasraj Singh Hallan
C CPC likely
269.
Rachael Thomas
C CPC likely
270.
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas
B BQ likely
271. C CPC likely
272.
Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay
B BQ likely
273.
Jacques Gourde
C CPC likely
274. B BQ likely
275. C CPC likely
276.
Christine Normandin
B BQ likely
277.
Alexandre Boulerice
N NDP likely
278.
Richard Bragdon
C CPC likely
279.
John Brassard
C CPC likely
280. C CPC likely
281. B BQ likely
282. C CPC likely
283.
Rheal Fortin
B BQ likely
284.
Brad Redekopp
C CPC likely
285.
Mark Strahl
C CPC likely
286.
Chris Lewis
C CPC likely
287.
Leslyn Lewis
C CPC likely
288.
Michael Guglielmin
C CPC likely
289. C CPC likely
290. C CPC likely
291.
Yves-Francois Blanchet
B BQ likely
292. C CPC likely
293. B BQ likely
294.
Martin Champoux
B BQ likely
295.
Mario Simard
B BQ likely
296. C CPC safe
297. C CPC safe
298.
Anna Roberts
C CPC safe
299. C CPC safe
300.
Colin Reynolds
C Toss up CPC/NDP
301.
Gabriel Ste-Marie
B BQ safe
302.
Stephanie Kusie
C CPC safe
303.
Kyle Seeback
C CPC safe
304.
Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe
B BQ safe
305. B BQ safe
306.
Luc Theriault
B BQ safe
307.
Kerry Diotte
C Toss up CPC/NDP
308.
Sebastien Lemire
B BQ safe