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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: February 16, 2025

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection28.7% ± 4.2%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection101 [72-141]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 16, 2025 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 9.1 seat/% 101 [72-141] 29% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC 101 [72-141] February 16, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 1/4 NS 4/11 NB 4/10 QC 27/78 ON 50/122 MB 4/14 SK 1/14 AB 0/37 BC 7/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | February 16, 2025

19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 24.5% ▼ 28.7% ± 4.2% ▼ 2021 32.6% Max. 32.9% ▼ Probabilities % LPC February 16, 2025

Seat projection | February 16, 2025

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 72 ▼ 101 ▼ Max. 141 ▼ 2021 160 seats Majority 172 seats Probabilities % LPC February 16, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
2. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
3. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
4. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
5. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe >99%
6. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
7. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
8. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
9. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
10. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
11. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
12. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
13. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
14. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
15. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
16. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
17. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
18. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
19. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
20. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
21. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
22. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
23. Papineau LPC safe >99%
24. Markham—Thornhill LPC safe >99%
25. Vimy LPC safe >99%
26. Surrey Newton LPC safe >99%
27. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely >99%
28. Cape Spear LPC likely >99%
29. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC likely >99%
30. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely >99%
31. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC likely >99%
32. Outremont LPC likely >99%
33. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely >99%
34. Ajax LPC likely >99%
35. Davenport LPC likely >99%
36. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely >99%
37. St. John’s East LPC likely >99%
38. Etobicoke North LPC likely >99%
39. Mount Royal LPC likely 99%
40. Halifax LPC likely 99%
41. Toronto—Danforth LPC likely 99%
42. Vaudreuil LPC likely 99%
43. Orléans LPC likely 99%
44. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC likely 99%
45. Brampton West LPC likely 99%
46. Ottawa South LPC likely 99%
47. Halifax West LPC likely 99%
48. Moncton—Dieppe LPC likely 98%
49. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC likely 98%
50. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 98%
51. Laval—Les Îles LPC likely 98%
52. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely 98%
53. Brampton East LPC likely 98%
54. Brampton South LPC likely 97%
55. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely 97%
56. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC likely 96%
57. Surrey Centre LPC likely 96%
58. Guelph LPC likely 95%
59. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 95%
60. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 95%
61. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely 94%
62. Don Valley West LPC likely 94%
63. Winnipeg South LPC likely 94%
64. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC likely 93%
65. Vancouver Centre LPC likely 92%
66. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely 92%
67. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely 91%
68. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely 90%
69. Waterloo LPC likely 90%
70. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC likely 90%
71. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 90%
72. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC leaning 90%
73. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC leaning 88%
74. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC leaning 88%
75. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning 87%
76. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 86%
77. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC leaning 85%
78. Brampton North—Caledon LPC leaning 84%
79. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC leaning 84%
80. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC leaning 82%
81. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning 80%
82. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC leaning 80%
83. Brampton Centre LPC leaning 80%
84. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 78%
85. London Centre LPC leaning 76%
86. Northwest Territories LPC leaning 74%
87. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC leaning 73%
88. Don Valley North LPC leaning 71%
89. Pickering—Brooklin Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
90. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ 68%
91. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Toss up LPC/BQ 66%
92. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
93. Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
94. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
95. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
96. Burnaby North—Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
97. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
98. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ 54%
99. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
100. North Vancouver—Capilano Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
101. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
102. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
103. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ 49%
104. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
105. Burlington North—Milton West Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
106. Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
107. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
108. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
109. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ 43%
110. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
111. Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ 42%
112. Kings—Hants Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
113. Compton—Stanstead Toss up LPC/BQ 39%
114. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
115. Richmond Hill South Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
116. Oakville West Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
117. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
118. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
119. Willowdale Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
120. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
121. Etobicoke Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
122. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
123. Kanata Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
124. Oakville East CPC leaning 27%
125. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 26%
126. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC 26%
127. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC leaning 25%
128. St. Catharines CPC leaning 24%
129. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 23%
130. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC leaning 22%
131. Central Nova CPC leaning 22%
132. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning 21%
133. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC leaning 20%
134. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 20%
135. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 20%
136. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ leaning 19%
137. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC leaning 19%
138. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ leaning 19%
139. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC leaning 17%
140. Cambridge CPC leaning 16%
141. Brome—Missisquoi BQ leaning 16%
142. Malpeque CPC leaning 16%
143. Delta CPC leaning 15%
144. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC leaning 15%
145. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC leaning 14%
146. London West CPC leaning 13%
147. York Centre CPC leaning 13%
148. Richmond East—Steveston CPC leaning 13%
149. Winnipeg West CPC leaning 13%
150. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 13%
151. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 12%
152. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC leaning 11%
153. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC leaning 11%
154. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC likely 9%
155. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely 7%
156. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC likely 6%
157. Nunavut NDP likely 6%
158. Long Range Mountains CPC likely 6%
159. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC likely 5%
160. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely 5%
161. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely 5%
162. Central Newfoundland CPC likely 4%
163. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC likely 4%
164. Vancouver Kingsway NDP likely 4%
165. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC likely 3%
166. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC likely 3%
167. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 2%
168. Edmonton Centre CPC likely 1%
169. Windsor West NDP leaning 1%
170. Hamilton Centre NDP likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Scarborough North LPC safe
2. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe
3. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe
4. Winnipeg North LPC safe
5. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe
6. Bourassa LPC safe
7. Beaches—East York LPC safe
8. Toronto Centre LPC safe
9. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe
10. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
11. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
12. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe
13. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe
14. Saint-Laurent LPC safe
15. Beauséjour LPC safe
16. University—Rosedale LPC safe
17. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe
18. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe
19. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe
20. Gatineau LPC safe
21. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe
22. Ottawa Centre LPC safe
23. Papineau LPC safe
24. Markham—Thornhill LPC safe
25. Vimy LPC safe
26. Surrey Newton LPC safe
27. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely
28. Cape Spear LPC likely
29. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC likely
30. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely
31. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC likely
32. Outremont LPC likely
33. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely
34. Ajax LPC likely
35. Davenport LPC likely
36. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely
37. St. John’s East LPC likely
38. Etobicoke North LPC likely
39. Mount Royal LPC likely
40. Halifax LPC likely
41. Toronto—Danforth LPC likely
42. Vaudreuil LPC likely
43. Orléans LPC likely
44. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC likely
45. Brampton West LPC likely
46. Ottawa South LPC likely
47. Halifax West LPC likely
48. Moncton—Dieppe LPC likely
49. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC likely
50. Mississauga Centre LPC likely
51. Laval—Les Îles LPC likely
52. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely
53. Brampton East LPC likely
54. Brampton South LPC likely
55. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely
56. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC likely
57. Surrey Centre LPC likely
58. Guelph LPC likely
59. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely
60. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely
61. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely
62. Don Valley West LPC likely
63. Winnipeg South LPC likely
64. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC likely
65. Vancouver Centre LPC likely
66. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely
67. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely
68. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely
69. Waterloo LPC likely
70. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC likely
71. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning
72. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC leaning
73. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC leaning
74. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC leaning
75. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning
76. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning
77. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC leaning
78. Brampton North—Caledon LPC leaning
79. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC leaning
80. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC leaning
81. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning
82. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC leaning
83. Brampton Centre LPC leaning
84. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning
85. London Centre LPC leaning
86. Northwest Territories LPC leaning
87. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC leaning
88. Don Valley North LPC leaning
89. Pickering—Brooklin Toss up LPC/CPC
90. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ
91. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Toss up LPC/BQ
92. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC
93. Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
94. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
95. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up LPC/CPC
96. Burnaby North—Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC
97. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC
98. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ
99. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC
100. North Vancouver—Capilano Toss up LPC/CPC
101. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC
102. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC
103. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ
104. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC
105. Burlington North—Milton West Toss up LPC/CPC
106. Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC
107. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC
108. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
109. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ
110. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC
111. Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ
112. Kings—Hants Toss up LPC/CPC
113. Compton—Stanstead Toss up LPC/BQ
114. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC
115. Richmond Hill South Toss up LPC/CPC
116. Oakville West Toss up LPC/CPC
117. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC
118. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC
119. Willowdale Toss up LPC/CPC
120. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC
121. Etobicoke Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
122. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
123. Kanata Toss up LPC/CPC
124. Oakville East CPC leaning
125. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning
126. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC
127. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC leaning
128. St. Catharines CPC leaning
129. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning
130. Nipissing—Timiskaming CPC leaning
131. Central Nova CPC leaning
132. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC leaning
133. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC leaning
134. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning
135. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
136. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ leaning
137. Thunder Bay—Rainy River CPC leaning
138. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ leaning
139. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC leaning
140. Cambridge CPC leaning
141. Brome—Missisquoi BQ leaning
142. Malpeque CPC leaning
143. Delta CPC leaning
144. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC leaning
145. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC leaning
146. London West CPC leaning
147. York Centre CPC leaning
148. Richmond East—Steveston CPC leaning
149. Winnipeg West CPC leaning
150. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
151. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning
152. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC leaning
153. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC leaning
154. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC likely
155. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely
156. Milton East—Halton Hills South CPC likely
157. Nunavut NDP likely
158. Long Range Mountains CPC likely
159. Kitchener—Conestoga CPC likely
160. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely
161. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely
162. Central Newfoundland CPC likely
163. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC likely
164. Vancouver Kingsway NDP likely
165. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC likely
166. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC likely
167. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning
168. Edmonton Centre CPC likely
169. Windsor West NDP leaning
170. Hamilton Centre NDP likely