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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: August 3, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection45.8% ± 4.6%
Current number of MPs169
Current seat projection195 [153-240]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 3, 2025 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 11.5 seat/% 195 [153-240] 46% ± 5% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ LPC 195 [153-240] August 3, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 51/78 ON 78/122 MB 7/14 SK 3/14 AB 5/37 BC 22/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | August 3, 2025

35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 41.2% ▼ 2025 43.8% 45.8% ± 4.6% ▼ Max. 50.4% ▼ Probabilities % LPC August 3, 2025

Seat projection | August 3, 2025

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 153 ▼ 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats 195 ▼ Max. 240 ▼ Probabilities % LPC August 3, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
2. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
3. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
4. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
5. Orléans LPC safe >99%
6. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
7. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
8. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
9. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
10. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
11. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
12. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
13. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
14. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
15. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
16. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
17. Nepean LPC safe >99%
18. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
19. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
20. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
21. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
22. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
23. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
24. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
25. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
26. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
27. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
28. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
29. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
30. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
31. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
32. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
33. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
34. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
35. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
36. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
37. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
38. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
39. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
40. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
41. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
42. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
43. Halifax LPC safe >99%
44. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
45. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
46. Kanata LPC safe >99%
47. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
48. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
49. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
50. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
51. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
52. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
53. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
54. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
55. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
56. Vimy LPC safe >99%
57. Outremont LPC safe >99%
58. London Centre LPC safe >99%
59. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
60. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
61. Davenport LPC safe >99%
62. Papineau LPC safe >99%
63. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
64. Laval—Les Îles LPC safe >99%
65. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
66. Victoria LPC safe >99%
67. Guelph LPC safe >99%
68. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
69. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
70. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe >99%
71. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC safe >99%
72. Brome—Missisquoi LPC safe >99%
73. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
74. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
75. Compton—Stanstead LPC safe >99%
76. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC safe >99%
77. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
78. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
79. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
80. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC safe >99%
81. Trois-Rivières LPC safe >99%
82. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
83. Avalon LPC safe >99%
84. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC safe >99%
85. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC safe >99%
86. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC safe >99%
87. London West LPC safe >99%
88. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC safe >99%
89. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC safe >99%
90. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC safe >99%
91. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
92. Québec Centre LPC safe >99%
93. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
94. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe >99%
95. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
96. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC safe >99%
97. Mount Royal LPC safe >99%
98. Winnipeg West LPC safe >99%
99. Ajax LPC likely >99%
100. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely >99%
101. Cardigan LPC likely >99%
102. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely >99%
103. Burlington LPC likely >99%
104. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely >99%
105. La Prairie—Atateken LPC likely >99%
106. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely >99%
107. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely >99%
108. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 99%
109. Peterborough LPC likely 99%
110. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 99%
111. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
112. Sudbury LPC likely 99%
113. Beauport—Limoilou LPC likely 99%
114. St. Catharines LPC likely 99%
115. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 99%
116. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 99%
117. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 99%
118. Central Nova LPC likely 98%
119. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 98%
120. Etobicoke North LPC likely 98%
121. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 98%
122. Les Pays-d’en-Haut LPC likely 98%
123. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou LPC likely 98%
124. Yukon LPC likely 98%
125. Don Valley North LPC likely 97%
126. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 97%
127. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 97%
128. Whitby LPC likely 97%
129. Delta LPC likely 96%
130. Willowdale LPC likely 96%
131. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 96%
132. Oakville West LPC likely 96%
133. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 96%
134. Egmont LPC likely 95%
135. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC likely 93%
136. Oakville East LPC likely 92%
137. Labrador LPC likely 92%
138. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC likely 91%
139. Markham—Stouffville LPC likely 91%
140. Bay of Quinte LPC likely 91%
141. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert LPC likely 91%
142. Carleton LPC likely 91%
143. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 90%
144. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 90%
145. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 89%
146. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 89%
147. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 88%
148. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 88%
149. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 87%
150. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 87%
151. Terrebonne LPC leaning 87%
152. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 86%
153. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 86%
154. Calgary Confederation LPC leaning 86%
155. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 85%
156. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 85%
157. Brampton East LPC leaning 85%
158. Shefford LPC leaning 84%
159. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 82%
160. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 81%
161. Richmond East—Steveston LPC leaning 80%
162. Kelowna LPC leaning 79%
163. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 78%
164. Kildonan—St. Paul LPC leaning 77%
165. Eglinton—Lawrence LPC leaning 76%
166. Brampton South LPC leaning 76%
167. Richmond—Arthabaska LPC leaning 76%
168. Brampton North—Caledon LPC leaning 76%
169. Brampton Centre LPC leaning 75%
170. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord LPC leaning 74%
171. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 74%
172. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 74%
173. Kitchener—Conestoga LPC leaning 74%
174. Repentigny LPC leaning 71%
175. Milton East—Halton Hills South LPC leaning 70%
176. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore LPC leaning 70%
177. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/NDP 66%
178. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
179. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
180. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
181. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
182. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
183. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
184. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
185. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
186. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
187. La Pointe-de-l’Île Toss up LPC/BQ 57%
188. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
189. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 56%
190. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
191. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
192. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
193. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
194. Regina—Lewvan Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
195. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
196. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
197. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Toss up LPC/BQ 48%
198. Bowmanville—Oshawa North Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
199. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
200. Mirabel Toss up LPC/BQ 46%
201. Saskatoon—University Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
202. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
203. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj Toss up LPC/BQ 45%
204. Saskatoon South Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
205. Lanark—Frontenac Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
206. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 43%
207. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 43%
208. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
209. Oshawa Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
210. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
211. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
212. Wellington—Halton Hills North Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
213. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
214. Edmonton West Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
215. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
216. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
217. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
218. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
219. Laurentides—Labelle BQ leaning 30%
220. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 29%
221. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 29%
222. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 29%
223. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 28%
224. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 26%
225. Saint-Jean BQ leaning 26%
226. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ leaning 25%
227. Niagara West CPC leaning 25%
228. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ leaning 24%
229. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 24%
230. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 24%
231. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 24%
232. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 22%
233. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 21%
234. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 20%
235. Middlesex—London CPC leaning 20%
236. Edmonton Northwest CPC leaning 19%
237. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 18%
238. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC leaning 17%
239. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 16%
240. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC leaning 16%
241. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC leaning 16%
242. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ leaning 15%
243. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC leaning 14%
244. York Centre CPC leaning 14%
245. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC leaning 14%
246. Rivière-du-Nord BQ leaning 14%
247. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC leaning 13%
248. Huron—Bruce CPC leaning 13%
249. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning 11%
250. Perth—Wellington CPC leaning 11%
251. Vancouver East NDP likely 10%
252. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 10%
253. Beloeil—Chambly BQ likely 9%
254. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 9%
255. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ leaning 9%
256. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 9%
257. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 8%
258. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely 8%
259. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 8%
260. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 8%
261. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 7%
262. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC likely 7%
263. Drummond BQ likely 6%
264. London—Fanshawe Toss up CPC/NDP 5%
265. Jonquière BQ likely 5%
266. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning 5%
267. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 4%
268. Oxford CPC likely 4%
269. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 4%
270. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely 4%
271. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 4%
272. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP likely 3%
273. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 3%
274. York—Durham CPC likely 3%
275. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC likely 3%
276. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC likely 3%
277. Joliette—Manawan BQ likely 2%
278. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 2%
279. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC likely 2%
280. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely 2%
281. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely 2%
282. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 1%