Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: November 26, 2023
Leader | Justin Trudeau |
National popular vote in 2021 | 32.6% |
Current vote projection | 26.5% ± 3.4% |
Current number of MP's | 158 |
Current seat projection | 73 [53-105] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Popular vote projection | November 26, 2023
Seat projection | November 26, 2023
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
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1. | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
2. | Scarborough North | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
3. | Acadie–Bathurst | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
4. | Scarborough–Rouge Park | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
5. | Markham–Thornhill | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
6. | Bourassa | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
7. | Scarborough–Guildwood | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
8. | Honoré-Mercier | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
9. | Saint-Laurent | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
10. | Humber River–Black Creek | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
11. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
12. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
13. | Lac-Saint-Louis | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
14. | Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
15. | Brossard–Saint-Lambert | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
16. | Vimy | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
17. | Gatineau | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
18. | Hull–Aylmer | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
19. | Pierrefonds–Dollard | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
20. | Vaudreuil–Soulanges | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
21. | Laval–Les Îles | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
22. | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
23. | Winnipeg South Centre | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
24. | Surrey–Newton | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
25. | Alfred-Pellan | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
26. | Beaches–East York | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
27. | York South–Weston | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
28. | Mount Royal | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
29. | Scarborough Southwest | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
30. | Don Valley East | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
31. | St. John’s South–Mount Pearl | ![]() |
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LPC safe hold | >99% |
32. | Beauséjour | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 99% |
33. | Papineau | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 99% |
34. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 99% |
35. | Etobicoke North | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 99% |
36. | Saint Boniface–Saint Vital | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 98% |
37. | Scarborough Centre | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 98% |
38. | Winnipeg North | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 98% |
39. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 97% |
40. | Halifax West | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 96% |
41. | Ajax | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 96% |
42. | Toronto Centre | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 96% |
43. | Winnipeg South | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 95% |
44. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 94% |
45. | University–Rosedale | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 94% |
46. | Ottawa–Vanier | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 93% |
47. | Vancouver South | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 91% |
48. | Pontiac | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 90% |
49. | Surrey Centre | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 90% |
50. | Mississauga Centre | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 90% |
51. | Brampton East | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 88% |
52. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 87% |
53. | Brampton West | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 86% |
54. | Madawaska–Restigouche | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 86% |
55. | Hochelaga | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 85% |
56. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 83% |
57. | Sherbrooke | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 82% |
58. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 79% |
59. | Outremont | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 78% |
60. | Scarborough–Agincourt | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 78% |
61. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 75% |
62. | Don Valley North | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 73% |
63. | Mississauga–Malton | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 70% |
64. | Brampton North | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 69% |
65. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 68% |
66. | Vancouver Centre | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 63% |
67. | St. John’s East | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 62% |
68. | Brampton South | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 61% |
69. | Cardigan | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 60% |
70. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 58% |
71. | Québec | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 57% |
72. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 51% |
73. | Halifax | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 49% |
74. | Ottawa South | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 47% |
75. | Milton | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 46% |
76. | Ottawa Centre | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 45% |
77. | Compton–Stanstead | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 43% |
78. | Spadina–Fort York | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 40% |
79. | Mississauga East–Cooksville | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 39% |
80. | Charlottetown | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 37% |
81. | Orléans | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 36% |
82. | Toronto–Danforth | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 36% |
83. | Burnaby North–Seymour | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 35% |
84. | Egmont | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 35% |
85. | Northwest Territories | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 34% |
86. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 34% |
87. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 33% |
88. | Louis-Hébert | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 32% |
89. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 32% |
90. | Kingston and the Islands | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 31% |
91. | Parkdale–High Park | ![]() |
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NDP leaning gain | 30% |
92. | Kings–Hants | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 29% |
93. | Brome–Missisquoi | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 29% |
94. | Vancouver Quadra | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 28% |
95. | Brampton Centre | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 26% |
96. | Davenport | ![]() |
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NDP leaning gain | 25% |
97. | North Vancouver | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 25% |
98. | Guelph | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 25% |
99. | Willowdale | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 23% |
100. | Labrador | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 23% |
101. | Calgary Skyview | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 20% |
102. | Don Valley West | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 20% |
103. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 19% |
104. | Markham–Stouffville | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 19% |
105. | Saint John–Rothesay | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 18% |
106. | Waterloo | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 18% |
107. | Avalon | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 17% |
108. | Central Nova | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 17% |
109. | Yukon | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 17% |
110. | Mississauga–Streetsville | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 16% |
111. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 16% |
112. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 15% |
113. | Steveston–Richmond East | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 13% |
114. | Cape Breton–Canso | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 13% |
115. | Ottawa West–Nepean | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 12% |
116. | Malpeque | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 11% |
117. | Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 10% |
118. | Vancouver Granville | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 9% |
119. | Etobicoke Centre | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 9% |
120. | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 8% |
121. | Edmonton Centre | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 8% |
122. | Eglinton–Lawrence | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 8% |
123. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 8% |
124. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 8% |
125. | Nepean | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 7% |
126. | Delta | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 7% |
127. | London North Centre | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 7% |
128. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 7% |
129. | Pickering–Uxbridge | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 6% |
130. | Thérèse-De Blainville | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 6% |
131. | York Centre | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 5% |
132. | La Prairie | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 5% |
133. | Whitby | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 4% |
134. | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 4% |
135. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 3% |
136. | Richmond Hill | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 3% |
137. | Montarville | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 3% |
138. | Burlington | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 3% |
139. | Oakville North–Burlington | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 3% |
140. | Hamilton Mountain | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/NDP | 3% |
141. | Glengarry–Prescott–Russell | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 3% |
142. | Shefford | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 2% |
143. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 2% |
144. | Oakville | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 2% |
145. | Nickel Belt | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 2% |
146. | Terrebonne | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 1% |
147. | Nipissing–Timiskaming | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 1% |
148. | Vaughan–Woodbridge | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 1% |
149. | Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 1% |
150. | Newmarket–Aurora | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
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1. | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel | LPC safe hold |
2. | Scarborough North | LPC safe hold |
3. | Acadie–Bathurst | LPC safe hold |
4. | Scarborough–Rouge Park | LPC safe hold |
5. | Markham–Thornhill | LPC safe hold |
6. | Bourassa | LPC safe hold |
7. | Scarborough–Guildwood | LPC safe hold |
8. | Honoré-Mercier | LPC safe hold |
9. | Saint-Laurent | LPC safe hold |
10. | Humber River–Black Creek | LPC safe hold |
11. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | LPC safe hold |
12. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount | LPC safe hold |
13. | Lac-Saint-Louis | LPC safe hold |
14. | Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle | LPC safe hold |
15. | Brossard–Saint-Lambert | LPC safe hold |
16. | Vimy | LPC safe hold |
17. | Gatineau | LPC safe hold |
18. | Hull–Aylmer | LPC safe hold |
19. | Pierrefonds–Dollard | LPC safe hold |
20. | Vaudreuil–Soulanges | LPC safe hold |
21. | Laval–Les Îles | LPC safe hold |
22. | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs | LPC safe hold |
23. | Winnipeg South Centre | LPC safe hold |
24. | Surrey–Newton | LPC safe hold |
25. | Alfred-Pellan | LPC safe hold |
26. | Beaches–East York | LPC safe hold |
27. | York South–Weston | LPC safe hold |
28. | Mount Royal | LPC safe hold |
29. | Scarborough Southwest | LPC safe hold |
30. | Don Valley East | LPC safe hold |
31. | St. John’s South–Mount Pearl | LPC safe hold |
32. | Beauséjour | LPC likely hold |
33. | Papineau | LPC likely hold |
34. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | LPC likely hold |
35. | Etobicoke North | LPC likely hold |
36. | Saint Boniface–Saint Vital | LPC likely hold |
37. | Scarborough Centre | LPC likely hold |
38. | Winnipeg North | LPC likely hold |
39. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | LPC likely hold |
40. | Halifax West | LPC likely hold |
41. | Ajax | LPC likely hold |
42. | Toronto Centre | LPC likely hold |
43. | Winnipeg South | LPC likely hold |
44. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | LPC likely hold |
45. | University–Rosedale | LPC likely hold |
46. | Ottawa–Vanier | LPC likely hold |
47. | Vancouver South | LPC likely hold |
48. | Pontiac | LPC likely hold |
49. | Surrey Centre | LPC likely hold |
50. | Mississauga Centre | LPC leaning hold |
51. | Brampton East | LPC leaning hold |
52. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | LPC leaning hold |
53. | Brampton West | LPC leaning hold |
54. | Madawaska–Restigouche | LPC leaning hold |
55. | Hochelaga | LPC leaning hold |
56. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | LPC leaning hold |
57. | Sherbrooke | LPC leaning hold |
58. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | LPC leaning hold |
59. | Outremont | LPC leaning hold |
60. | Scarborough–Agincourt | LPC leaning hold |
61. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | LPC leaning hold |
62. | Don Valley North | LPC leaning hold |
63. | Mississauga–Malton | Toss up LPC/CPC |
64. | Brampton North | Toss up LPC/CPC |
65. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | Toss up LPC/BQ |
66. | Vancouver Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC |
67. | St. John’s East | Toss up LPC/NDP |
68. | Brampton South | Toss up LPC/CPC |
69. | Cardigan | Toss up LPC/CPC |
70. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | Toss up LPC/NDP |
71. | Québec | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ |
72. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | Toss up LPC/BQ |
73. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP |
74. | Ottawa South | Toss up LPC/CPC |
75. | Milton | Toss up LPC/CPC |
76. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP |
77. | Compton–Stanstead | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ |
78. | Spadina–Fort York | Toss up LPC/NDP |
79. | Mississauga East–Cooksville | Toss up LPC/CPC |
80. | Charlottetown | Toss up LPC/CPC |
81. | Orléans | Toss up LPC/CPC |
82. | Toronto–Danforth | Toss up LPC/NDP |
83. | Burnaby North–Seymour | Toss up LPC/CPC |
84. | Egmont | Toss up LPC/CPC |
85. | Northwest Territories | Toss up LPC/NDP |
86. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | Toss up LPC/BQ |
87. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Toss up LPC/CPC |
88. | Louis-Hébert | Toss up LPC/CPC |
89. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | Toss up LPC/CPC |
90. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
91. | Parkdale–High Park | NDP leaning gain |
92. | Kings–Hants | CPC leaning gain |
93. | Brome–Missisquoi | Toss up LPC/BQ |
94. | Vancouver Quadra | CPC leaning gain |
95. | Brampton Centre | CPC leaning gain |
96. | Davenport | NDP leaning gain |
97. | North Vancouver | CPC leaning gain |
98. | Guelph | CPC leaning gain |
99. | Willowdale | CPC leaning gain |
100. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain |
101. | Calgary Skyview | CPC leaning gain |
102. | Don Valley West | CPC leaning gain |
103. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | CPC leaning gain |
104. | Markham–Stouffville | CPC leaning gain |
105. | Saint John–Rothesay | CPC leaning gain |
106. | Waterloo | CPC leaning gain |
107. | Avalon | CPC leaning gain |
108. | Central Nova | CPC leaning gain |
109. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
110. | Mississauga–Streetsville | CPC leaning gain |
111. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | CPC leaning gain |
112. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
113. | Steveston–Richmond East | CPC leaning gain |
114. | Cape Breton–Canso | CPC leaning gain |
115. | Ottawa West–Nepean | CPC leaning gain |
116. | Malpeque | CPC leaning gain |
117. | Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas | CPC likely gain |
118. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain |
119. | Etobicoke Centre | CPC likely gain |
120. | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert | BQ likely hold |
121. | Edmonton Centre | CPC leaning gain |
122. | Eglinton–Lawrence | CPC likely gain |
123. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | CPC likely gain |
124. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | BQ likely hold |
125. | Nepean | CPC likely gain |
126. | Delta | CPC likely gain |
127. | London North Centre | CPC leaning gain |
128. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | CPC likely gain |
129. | Pickering–Uxbridge | CPC likely gain |
130. | Thérèse-De Blainville | BQ likely hold |
131. | York Centre | CPC likely gain |
132. | La Prairie | BQ likely hold |
133. | Whitby | CPC likely gain |
134. | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | BQ likely hold |
135. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | CPC likely gain |
136. | Richmond Hill | CPC likely gain |
137. | Montarville | BQ likely hold |
138. | Burlington | CPC likely gain |
139. | Oakville North–Burlington | CPC likely gain |
140. | Hamilton Mountain | Toss up CPC/NDP |
141. | Glengarry–Prescott–Russell | CPC likely gain |
142. | Shefford | BQ likely hold |
143. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | CPC likely gain |
144. | Oakville | CPC likely gain |
145. | Nickel Belt | CPC likely gain |
146. | Terrebonne | BQ likely hold |
147. | Nipissing–Timiskaming | CPC likely gain |
148. | Vaughan–Woodbridge | CPC likely gain |
149. | Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill | CPC likely gain |
150. | Newmarket–Aurora | CPC likely gain |