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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada





Last update: February 5, 2023

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection31.8% ± 4.0%
Current number of MP's159
Current seat projection140 [104-164]

Popular vote projection | February 5, 2023

23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 27.8% ▼ 31.8% ± 4.0% ▼ 2021 32.6% Max. 35.9% ▼ Probabilities % LPC

Seat projection | February 5, 2023

66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196 201 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 104 ▼ 140 ▼ 2021 160 seats Max. 164 ▼ Majority 170 seats Probabilities % LPC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold >99%
2. Scarborough North LPC safe hold >99%
3. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold >99%
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold >99%
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold >99%
6. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold >99%
7. Bourassa LPC safe hold >99%
8. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold >99%
9. Etobicoke North LPC safe hold >99%
10. Don Valley East LPC safe hold >99%
11. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold >99%
12. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold >99%
13. Scarborough Centre LPC safe hold >99%
14. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold >99%
15. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold >99%
16. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold >99%
17. York South–Weston LPC safe hold >99%
18. Mount Royal LPC safe hold >99%
19. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold >99%
20. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold >99%
21. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold >99%
22. Beauséjour LPC safe hold >99%
23. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold >99%
24. Gatineau LPC safe hold >99%
25. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold >99%
26. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold >99%
27. Vimy LPC safe hold >99%
28. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold >99%
29. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold >99%
30. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold >99%
31. Pontiac LPC safe hold >99%
32. Vancouver South LPC safe hold >99%
33. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold >99%
34. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold >99%
35. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe hold >99%
36. Surrey Centre LPC safe hold >99%
37. Ajax LPC safe hold >99%
38. Toronto Centre LPC safe hold >99%
39. University–Rosedale LPC safe hold >99%
40. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe hold >99%
41. Mississauga Centre LPC safe hold >99%
42. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe hold >99%
43. Halifax West LPC safe hold >99%
44. Brampton East LPC safe hold >99%
45. Brampton West LPC safe hold >99%
46. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe hold >99%
47. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe hold >99%
48. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe hold >99%
49. Don Valley North LPC safe hold >99%
50. Winnipeg North LPC safe hold >99%
51. Papineau LPC safe hold >99%
52. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe hold >99%
53. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold >99%
54. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe hold >99%
55. Brampton North LPC safe hold >99%
56. Vancouver Centre LPC safe hold >99%
57. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC safe hold >99%
58. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe hold >99%
59. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe hold >99%
60. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe hold >99%
61. Brampton South LPC likely hold 99%
62. North Vancouver LPC likely hold 99%
63. Louis-Hébert LPC likely hold 98%
64. Winnipeg South LPC likely hold 98%
65. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely hold 98%
66. Milton LPC likely hold 98%
67. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold 98%
68. Vancouver Quadra LPC likely hold 98%
69. Ottawa South LPC likely hold 97%
70. Sherbrooke LPC likely hold 97%
71. Spadina–Fort York LPC likely hold 97%
72. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold 97%
73. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC likely hold 97%
74. Toronto–Danforth LPC likely hold 97%
75. Willowdale LPC likely hold 97%
76. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely hold 96%
77. Ottawa Centre LPC likely hold 96%
78. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC likely hold 95%
79. Orléans LPC likely hold 95%
80. Don Valley West LPC likely hold 95%
81. Kings–Hants LPC likely hold 95%
82. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely hold 95%
83. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely hold 95%
84. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC likely hold 95%
85. Brampton Centre LPC likely hold 95%
86. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC likely hold 94%
87. Davenport LPC likely hold 94%
88. Québec LPC likely hold 93%
89. Guelph LPC likely hold 93%
90. Cardigan LPC likely hold 93%
91. Outremont LPC likely hold 93%
92. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely hold 93%
93. Markham–Stouffville LPC likely hold 92%
94. Hochelaga LPC likely hold 92%
95. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely hold 92%
96. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning hold 90%
97. Central Nova LPC leaning hold 89%
98. Charlottetown LPC leaning hold 88%
99. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold 88%
100. Saint John–Rothesay LPC leaning hold 88%
101. Egmont LPC leaning hold 88%
102. Avalon LPC leaning hold 87%
103. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold 87%
104. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold 85%
105. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC leaning hold 84%
106. Waterloo LPC leaning hold 84%
107. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning hold 83%
108. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC leaning hold 82%
109. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold 82%
110. Steveston–Richmond East LPC leaning hold 81%
111. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC leaning hold 80%
112. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC leaning hold 79%
113. Delta LPC leaning hold 79%
114. Cape Breton–Canso LPC leaning hold 77%
115. Vancouver Granville LPC leaning hold 77%
116. Labrador LPC leaning hold 76%
117. Northwest Territories LPC leaning hold 76%
118. York Centre LPC leaning hold 73%
119. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning hold 71%
120. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning hold 71%
121. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
122. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
123. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ 69%
124. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
125. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
126. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
127. Malpeque Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
128. Oakville Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
129. Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
130. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
131. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 58%
132. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
133. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
134. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
135. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
136. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
137. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 53%
138. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
139. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 50%
140. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
141. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
142. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
143. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
144. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
145. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
146. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
147. Richmond Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
148. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
149. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
150. Fredericton CPC leaning gain 30%
151. Burnaby South Toss up LPC/NDP 29%
152. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ leaning hold 29%
153. St. Catharines CPC leaning gain 28%
154. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ leaning hold 22%
155. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain 21%
156. London West CPC leaning gain 21%
157. Niagara Centre CPC leaning gain 21%
158. La Prairie BQ leaning hold 20%
159. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC leaning gain 19%
160. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain 19%
161. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ leaning hold 17%
162. Shefford BQ leaning hold 17%
163. Montarville BQ leaning hold 15%
164. Nunavut NDP leaning hold 15%
165. Cambridge CPC leaning gain 14%
166. King–Vaughan CPC leaning hold 12%
167. South Surrey–White Rock CPC leaning hold 12%
168. Kanata–Carleton CPC leaning gain 12%
169. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC leaning hold 10%
170. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ 9%
171. Terrebonne BQ likely hold 8%
172. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC likely hold 7%
173. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC likely hold 6%
174. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC likely gain 6%
175. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely hold 5%
176. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold 5%
177. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC likely gain 5%
178. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC likely hold 4%
179. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC likely hold 4%
180. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC leaning gain 4%
181. Victoria NDP likely hold 2%
182. Beauport–Limoilou BQ leaning hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold
2. Scarborough North LPC safe hold
3. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold
6. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold
7. Bourassa LPC safe hold
8. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold
9. Etobicoke North LPC safe hold
10. Don Valley East LPC safe hold
11. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold
12. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold
13. Scarborough Centre LPC safe hold
14. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold
15. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
16. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold
17. York South–Weston LPC safe hold
18. Mount Royal LPC safe hold
19. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold
20. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold
21. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold
22. Beauséjour LPC safe hold
23. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold
24. Gatineau LPC safe hold
25. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold
26. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold
27. Vimy LPC safe hold
28. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold
29. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold
30. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold
31. Pontiac LPC safe hold
32. Vancouver South LPC safe hold
33. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold
34. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold
35. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe hold
36. Surrey Centre LPC safe hold
37. Ajax LPC safe hold
38. Toronto Centre LPC safe hold
39. University–Rosedale LPC safe hold
40. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe hold
41. Mississauga Centre LPC safe hold
42. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe hold
43. Halifax West LPC safe hold
44. Brampton East LPC safe hold
45. Brampton West LPC safe hold
46. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe hold
47. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe hold
48. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe hold
49. Don Valley North LPC safe hold
50. Winnipeg North LPC safe hold
51. Papineau LPC safe hold
52. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe hold
53. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold
54. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe hold
55. Brampton North LPC safe hold
56. Vancouver Centre LPC safe hold
57. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC safe hold
58. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe hold
59. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe hold
60. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe hold
61. Brampton South LPC likely hold
62. North Vancouver LPC likely hold
63. Louis-Hébert LPC likely hold
64. Winnipeg South LPC likely hold
65. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely hold
66. Milton LPC likely hold
67. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold
68. Vancouver Quadra LPC likely hold
69. Ottawa South LPC likely hold
70. Sherbrooke LPC likely hold
71. Spadina–Fort York LPC likely hold
72. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold
73. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC likely hold
74. Toronto–Danforth LPC likely hold
75. Willowdale LPC likely hold
76. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely hold
77. Ottawa Centre LPC likely hold
78. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC likely hold
79. Orléans LPC likely hold
80. Don Valley West LPC likely hold
81. Kings–Hants LPC likely hold
82. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely hold
83. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely hold
84. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC likely hold
85. Brampton Centre LPC likely hold
86. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC likely hold
87. Davenport LPC likely hold
88. Québec LPC likely hold
89. Guelph LPC likely hold
90. Cardigan LPC likely hold
91. Outremont LPC likely hold
92. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely hold
93. Markham–Stouffville LPC likely hold
94. Hochelaga LPC likely hold
95. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely hold
96. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning hold
97. Central Nova LPC leaning hold
98. Charlottetown LPC leaning hold
99. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold
100. Saint John–Rothesay LPC leaning hold
101. Egmont LPC leaning hold
102. Avalon LPC leaning hold
103. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold
104. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold
105. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC leaning hold
106. Waterloo LPC leaning hold
107. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning hold
108. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC leaning hold
109. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold
110. Steveston–Richmond East LPC leaning hold
111. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC leaning hold
112. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC leaning hold
113. Delta LPC leaning hold
114. Cape Breton–Canso LPC leaning hold
115. Vancouver Granville LPC leaning hold
116. Labrador LPC leaning hold
117. Northwest Territories LPC leaning hold
118. York Centre LPC leaning hold
119. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning hold
120. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning hold
121. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
122. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Toss up LPC/CPC
123. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ
124. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC
125. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
126. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
127. Malpeque Toss up LPC/CPC
128. Oakville Toss up LPC/CPC
129. Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
130. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC
131. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
132. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC
133. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
134. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
135. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC
136. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
137. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
138. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC
139. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
140. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC
141. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Toss up LPC/CPC
142. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC
143. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC
144. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC
145. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC
146. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Toss up LPC/CPC
147. Richmond Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
148. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC
149. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC
150. Fredericton CPC leaning gain
151. Burnaby South Toss up LPC/NDP
152. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ leaning hold
153. St. Catharines CPC leaning gain
154. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ leaning hold
155. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain
156. London West CPC leaning gain
157. Niagara Centre CPC leaning gain
158. La Prairie BQ leaning hold
159. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC leaning gain
160. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain
161. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ leaning hold
162. Shefford BQ leaning hold
163. Montarville BQ leaning hold
164. Nunavut NDP leaning hold
165. Cambridge CPC leaning gain
166. King–Vaughan CPC leaning hold
167. South Surrey–White Rock CPC leaning hold
168. Kanata–Carleton CPC leaning gain
169. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC leaning hold
170. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ
171. Terrebonne BQ likely hold
172. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC likely hold
173. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC likely hold
174. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC likely gain
175. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely hold
176. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold
177. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC likely gain
178. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC likely hold
179. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC likely hold
180. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC leaning gain
181. Victoria NDP likely hold
182. Beauport–Limoilou BQ leaning hold