338Canada.com - Liberal Party of Canada





Last update: February 28, 2021

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 201933.1%
Current vote projection34.7% ± 4.7%
Current number of MP's0
Current seat projection159 ± 38



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
2. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
3. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe >99%
4. Etobicoke North LPC safe >99%
5. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe >99%
6. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
7. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
8. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe >99%
9. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe >99%
10. Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
11. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
12. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
13. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
14. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe >99%
15. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe >99%
16. York South–Weston LPC safe >99%
17. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
18. Scarborough Centre LPC safe >99%
19. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
20. Spadina–Fort York LPC safe >99%
21. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
22. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
23. Toronto–St. Paul's LPC safe >99%
24. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe >99%
25. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
26. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
27. North Vancouver LPC safe >99%
28. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe >99%
29. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
30. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe >99%
31. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe >99%
32. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
33. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe >99%
34. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
35. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
36. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe >99%
37. Pontiac LPC safe >99%
38. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
39. Ajax LPC safe >99%
40. St. John's South–Mount Pearl LPC safe >99%
41. Beaches–East York LPC safe >99%
42. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
43. Papineau LPC safe >99%
44. Brampton West LPC safe >99%
45. Orléans LPC safe >99%
46. Long Range Mountains LPC safe >99%
47. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
48. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
49. Mississauga Centre LPC safe >99%
50. Cardigan LPC safe >99%
51. Kings–Hants LPC safe >99%
52. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe >99%
53. Mount Royal LPC safe >99%
54. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe >99%
55. Avalon LPC safe >99%
56. Brampton North LPC safe >99%
57. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
58. Surrey–Newton LPC safe >99%
59. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
60. Outremont LPC safe >99%
61. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
62. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
63. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
64. University–Rosedale LPC safe >99%
65. Delta LPC safe >99%
66. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe >99%
67. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
68. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe >99%
69. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC safe >99%
70. Vancouver South LPC safe >99%
71. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC safe >99%
72. South Shore–St. Margarets LPC safe >99%
73. Brampton South LPC safe >99%
74. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe >99%
75. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe >99%
76. Vimy LPC safe >99%
77. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe >99%
78. Brampton Centre LPC safe >99%
79. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
80. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe >99%
81. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe >99%
82. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC safe >99%
83. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe >99%
84. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC safe >99%
85. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 99%
86. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely 99%
87. London West LPC likely 99%
88. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC likely 99%
89. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC likely 99%
90. Burlington LPC likely 99%
91. Surrey Centre LPC likely 99%
92. Louis-Hébert LPC likely 99%
93. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely 99%
94. Labrador LPC likely 99%
95. Milton LPC likely 99%
96. Don Valley North LPC likely 98%
97. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely 98%
98. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely 98%
99. London North Centre LPC likely 98%
100. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely 98%
101. Egmont LPC likely 98%
102. Nepean LPC likely 98%
103. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely 98%
104. Guelph LPC likely 97%
105. Brampton East LPC likely 97%
106. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely 97%
107. Willowdale LPC likely 97%
108. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC likely 96%
109. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely 96%
110. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely 96%
111. Halifax LPC likely 96%
112. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely 96%
113. Cambridge LPC likely 95%
114. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely 95%
115. Central Nova LPC likely 95%
116. Ottawa Centre LPC likely 95%
117. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely 95%
118. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely 94%
119. St. Catharines LPC likely 93%
120. Whitby LPC likely 91%
121. Kitchener Centre LPC likely 91%
122. Cumberland–Colchester LPC leaning 89%
123. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC leaning 89%
124. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC leaning 88%
125. Oakville LPC leaning 88%
126. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning 87%
127. Compton–Stanstead LPC leaning 87%
128. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning 86%
129. Northwest Territories LPC leaning 86%
130. Parkdale–High Park LPC leaning 83%
131. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning 83%
132. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning 82%
133. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC leaning 80%
134. York Centre LPC leaning 78%
135. Sherbrooke LPC leaning 77%
136. Toronto–Danforth LPC leaning 76%
137. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning 76%
138. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning 75%
139. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning 75%
140. Sudbury LPC leaning 75%
141. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning 73%
142. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning 72%
143. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 70%
144. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning 70%
145. Hochelaga Toss up 68%
146. Markham–Stouffville Toss up 68%
147. Québec Toss up 67%
148. King–Vaughan Toss up 65%
149. Toronto Centre Toss up 64%
150. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up 63%
151. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up 62%
152. Yukon Toss up 61%
153. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up 61%
154. Richmond Hill Toss up 59%
155. Niagara Centre Toss up 56%
156. Vancouver Granville Toss up 52%
157. Shefford Toss up 48%
158. Davenport Toss up 47%
159. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up 46%
160. Nickel Belt Toss up 45%
161. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up 44%
162. West Nova Toss up 43%
163. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up 42%
164. La Prairie Toss up 40%
165. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up 40%
166. Niagara Falls Toss up 39%
167. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up 38%
168. Regina–Wascana Toss up 37%
169. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up 36%
170. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up 35%
171. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up 35%
172. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up 34%
173. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up 33%
174. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up 31%
175. Montarville BQ leaning 29%
176. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up 28%
177. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning 27%
178. Edmonton Centre Toss up 27%
179. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning 26%
180. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning 25%
181. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ leaning 24%
182. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning 23%
183. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC leaning 23%
184. Kenora Toss up 21%
185. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC leaning 20%
186. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning 18%
187. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 17%
188. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 16%
189. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 16%
190. Fredericton GPC leaning 15%
191. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC leaning 15%
192. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up 15%
193. St. John's East NDP leaning 14%
194. Nunavut NDP leaning 13%
195. Dufferin–Caledon CPC leaning 13%
196. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning 12%
197. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 12%
198. Richmond Centre CPC leaning 12%
199. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning 11%
200. Trois-Rivières Toss up 11%
201. Laurentides–Labelle BQ likely 10%
202. Brantford–Brant CPC likely 10%
203. Saint-Jean BQ likely 8%
204. Carleton CPC likely 8%
205. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely 7%
206. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 7%
207. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ likely 6%
208. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up 6%
209. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely 6%
210. Windsor West NDP likely 5%
211. La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ likely 5%
212. Langley–Aldergrove CPC likely 5%
213. Simcoe North CPC likely 5%
214. Niagara West CPC likely 4%
215. Durham CPC likely 4%
216. Fundy Royal CPC likely 4%
217. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely 4%
218. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely 3%
219. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely 3%
220. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely 3%
221. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely 3%
222. Huron–Bruce CPC likely 2%
223. Victoria NDP likely 2%
224. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely 2%
225. Edmonton West CPC likely 2%
226. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely 2%
227. Terrebonne BQ likely 2%
228. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely 1%
229. Burnaby South NDP likely 1%
230. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ leaning 1%
231. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely <1%
232. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely <1%
233. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ likely <1%
234. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ likely <1%
235. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely <1%
236. Thornhill CPC likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Winnipeg North LPC safe
2. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe
3. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe
4. Etobicoke North LPC safe
5. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe
6. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
7. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe
8. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe
9. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe
10. Don Valley East LPC safe
11. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe
12. Bourassa LPC safe
13. Saint-Laurent LPC safe
14. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe
15. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe
16. York South–Weston LPC safe
17. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe
18. Scarborough Centre LPC safe
19. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe
20. Spadina–Fort York LPC safe
21. Beauséjour LPC safe
22. Halifax West LPC safe
23. Toronto–St. Paul's LPC safe
24. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe
25. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe
26. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe
27. North Vancouver LPC safe
28. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe
29. Ottawa South LPC safe
30. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe
31. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe
32. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
33. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe
34. Gatineau LPC safe
35. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
36. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe
37. Pontiac LPC safe
38. Winnipeg South LPC safe
39. Ajax LPC safe
40. St. John's South–Mount Pearl LPC safe
41. Beaches–East York LPC safe
42. Charlottetown LPC safe
43. Papineau LPC safe
44. Brampton West LPC safe
45. Orléans LPC safe
46. Long Range Mountains LPC safe
47. Vancouver Centre LPC safe
48. Waterloo LPC safe
49. Mississauga Centre LPC safe
50. Cardigan LPC safe
51. Kings–Hants LPC safe
52. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe
53. Mount Royal LPC safe
54. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe
55. Avalon LPC safe
56. Brampton North LPC safe
57. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe
58. Surrey–Newton LPC safe
59. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe
60. Outremont LPC safe
61. Don Valley West LPC safe
62. Scarborough North LPC safe
63. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC safe
64. University–Rosedale LPC safe
65. Delta LPC safe
66. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe
67. Malpeque LPC safe
68. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe
69. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC safe
70. Vancouver South LPC safe
71. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC safe
72. South Shore–St. Margarets LPC safe
73. Brampton South LPC safe
74. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe
75. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe
76. Vimy LPC safe
77. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe
78. Brampton Centre LPC safe
79. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe
80. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe
81. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe
82. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC safe
83. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe
84. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC safe
85. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely
86. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely
87. London West LPC likely
88. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC likely
89. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC likely
90. Burlington LPC likely
91. Surrey Centre LPC likely
92. Louis-Hébert LPC likely
93. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely
94. Labrador LPC likely
95. Milton LPC likely
96. Don Valley North LPC likely
97. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely
98. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely
99. London North Centre LPC likely
100. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely
101. Egmont LPC likely
102. Nepean LPC likely
103. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely
104. Guelph LPC likely
105. Brampton East LPC likely
106. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely
107. Willowdale LPC likely
108. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC likely
109. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely
110. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely
111. Halifax LPC likely
112. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely
113. Cambridge LPC likely
114. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
115. Central Nova LPC likely
116. Ottawa Centre LPC likely
117. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely
118. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely
119. St. Catharines LPC likely
120. Whitby LPC likely
121. Kitchener Centre LPC likely
122. Cumberland–Colchester LPC leaning
123. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC leaning
124. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC leaning
125. Oakville LPC leaning
126. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning
127. Compton–Stanstead LPC leaning
128. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning
129. Northwest Territories LPC leaning
130. Parkdale–High Park LPC leaning
131. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning
132. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning
133. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC leaning
134. York Centre LPC leaning
135. Sherbrooke LPC leaning
136. Toronto–Danforth LPC leaning
137. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning
138. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning
139. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning
140. Sudbury LPC leaning
141. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning
142. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning
143. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning
144. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning
145. Hochelaga Toss up
146. Markham–Stouffville Toss up
147. Québec Toss up
148. King–Vaughan Toss up
149. Toronto Centre Toss up
150. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up
151. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up
152. Yukon Toss up
153. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up
154. Richmond Hill Toss up
155. Niagara Centre Toss up
156. Vancouver Granville Toss up
157. Shefford Toss up
158. Davenport Toss up
159. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up
160. Nickel Belt Toss up
161. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up
162. West Nova Toss up
163. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up
164. La Prairie Toss up
165. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up
166. Niagara Falls Toss up
167. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up
168. Regina–Wascana Toss up
169. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up
170. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up
171. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up
172. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up
173. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up
174. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up
175. Montarville BQ leaning
176. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up
177. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning
178. Edmonton Centre Toss up
179. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning
180. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning
181. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ leaning
182. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning
183. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC leaning
184. Kenora Toss up
185. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC leaning
186. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning
187. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning
188. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning
189. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning
190. Fredericton GPC leaning
191. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC leaning
192. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up
193. St. John's East NDP leaning
194. Nunavut NDP leaning
195. Dufferin–Caledon CPC leaning
196. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning
197. Calgary Centre CPC leaning
198. Richmond Centre CPC leaning
199. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning
200. Trois-Rivières Toss up
201. Laurentides–Labelle BQ likely
202. Brantford–Brant CPC likely
203. Saint-Jean BQ likely
204. Carleton CPC likely
205. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely
206. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
207. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ likely
208. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up
209. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely
210. Windsor West NDP likely
211. La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ likely
212. Langley–Aldergrove CPC likely
213. Simcoe North CPC likely
214. Niagara West CPC likely
215. Durham CPC likely
216. Fundy Royal CPC likely
217. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely
218. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely
219. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely
220. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely
221. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely
222. Huron–Bruce CPC likely
223. Victoria NDP likely
224. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
225. Edmonton West CPC likely
226. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely
227. Terrebonne BQ likely
228. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely
229. Burnaby South NDP likely
230. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ leaning
231. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely
232. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely
233. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ likely
234. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ likely
235. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely
236. Thornhill CPC likely



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