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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: April 30, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.7%
Current vote projection43.5% ± 0.0%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection169 [169-169]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 30, 2025 190 180 170 160 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.2 seat/% 169 [169-169] 44% ± 0% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ LPC 169 [169-169] April 30, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 10/11 NB 6/10 QC 43/78 ON 70/122 MB 6/14 SK 1/14 AB 2/37 BC 20/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | April 30, 2025

44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Probabilities % LPC April 30, 2025

Seat projection | April 30, 2025

170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Probabilities % LPC April 30, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
2. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
3. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
4. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
5. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
6. Orléans LPC safe >99%
7. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
8. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
9. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
10. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
11. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
12. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
13. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
14. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
15. Nepean LPC safe >99%
16. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
17. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
18. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
19. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
20. Halifax LPC safe >99%
21. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
22. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
23. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
24. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
25. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
26. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
27. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
28. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
29. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
30. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
31. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
32. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
33. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
34. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
35. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
36. Kanata LPC safe >99%
37. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
38. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
39. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
40. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
41. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
42. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
43. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
44. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
45. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
46. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
47. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
48. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
49. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
50. Avalon LPC safe >99%
51. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
52. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC safe >99%
53. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
54. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
55. Davenport LPC safe >99%
56. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
57. London Centre LPC safe >99%
58. London West LPC safe >99%
59. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
60. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC safe >99%
61. Burlington LPC safe >99%
62. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC safe >99%
63. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC safe >99%
64. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
65. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
66. Outremont LPC safe >99%
67. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
68. Guelph LPC safe >99%
69. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
70. Victoria LPC safe >99%
71. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
72. Vimy LPC safe >99%
73. Papineau LPC safe >99%
74. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC safe >99%
75. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
76. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
77. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
78. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
79. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
80. Laval—Les Îles LPC safe >99%
81. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
82. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe >99%
83. Brome—Missisquoi LPC safe >99%
84. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
85. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC safe >99%
86. Compton—Stanstead LPC safe >99%
87. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC safe >99%
88. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
89. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
90. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
91. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe >99%
92. Ajax LPC safe >99%
93. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC safe >99%
94. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC safe >99%
95. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC safe >99%
96. Trois-Rivières LPC safe >99%
97. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC safe >99%
98. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC safe >99%
99. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
100. Peterborough LPC safe >99%
101. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC safe >99%
102. Pickering—Brooklin LPC safe >99%
103. Québec Centre LPC safe >99%
104. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC safe >99%
105. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC safe >99%
106. Winnipeg West LPC safe >99%
107. St. Catharines LPC likely >99%
108. Sudbury LPC likely >99%
109. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely >99%
110. Cardigan LPC likely >99%
111. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely >99%
112. Mississauga Centre LPC likely >99%
113. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely >99%
114. Northwest Territories LPC likely >99%
115. La Prairie—Atateken LPC likely 99%
116. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 99%
117. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC likely 99%
118. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 99%
119. Etobicoke North LPC likely 99%
120. Mount Royal LPC likely 99%
121. Don Valley North LPC likely 99%
122. Yukon LPC likely 98%
123. Whitby LPC likely 98%
124. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 98%
125. Willowdale LPC likely 98%
126. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 98%
127. Delta LPC likely 98%
128. Central Nova LPC likely 98%
129. Hamilton Centre LPC likely 97%
130. Oakville West LPC likely 97%
131. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 95%
132. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC likely 93%
133. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 93%
134. Beauport—Limoilou LPC likely 92%
135. Bay of Quinte LPC likely 92%
136. Markham—Stouffville LPC likely 92%
137. Oakville East LPC likely 91%
138. Carleton LPC leaning 90%
139. Les Pays-d’en-Haut LPC leaning 89%
140. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou LPC leaning 89%
141. Egmont LPC leaning 89%
142. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 89%
143. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 88%
144. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 85%
145. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 85%
146. Labrador LPC leaning 83%
147. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 82%
148. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 81%
149. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 81%
150. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 80%
151. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 80%
152. Brampton East LPC leaning 79%
153. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 79%
154. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 77%
155. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville LPC leaning 74%
156. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 72%
157. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 71%
158. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
159. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
160. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
161. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
162. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
163. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
164. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ 58%
165. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
166. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
167. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
168. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
169. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
170. Terrebonne Toss up LPC/BQ 49%
171. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 45%
172. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
173. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 44%
174. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
175. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
176. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ 38%
177. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
178. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
179. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
180. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC leaning 29%
181. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC leaning 28%
182. Cambridge CPC leaning 27%
183. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning 27%
184. Kildonan—St. Paul CPC leaning 25%
185. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 22%
186. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 21%
187. Simcoe North CPC leaning 19%
188. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 19%
189. Repentigny BQ leaning 18%
190. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 17%
191. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 17%
192. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 14%
193. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 13%
194. Niagara South CPC leaning 13%
195. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 13%
196. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 12%
197. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 12%
198. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 11%
199. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely 10%
200. Regina—Wascana CPC likely 9%
201. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely 9%
202. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC likely 7%
203. Oshawa CPC likely 6%
204. Regina—Lewvan CPC likely 6%
205. Long Range Mountains CPC likely 6%
206. Saskatoon—University CPC likely 5%
207. Mirabel BQ likely 4%
208. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC likely 4%
209. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC likely 4%
210. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely 3%
211. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 3%
212. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ likely 3%
213. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 3%
214. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC likely 3%
215. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 3%
216. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 3%
217. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 2%
218. Saskatoon South CPC likely 2%
219. Vancouver East NDP likely 2%
220. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC likely 2%
221. Central Newfoundland CPC likely 2%
222. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 2%
223. Windsor West CPC likely 2%
224. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 2%
225. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 2%
226. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely 1%
227. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 1%
228. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 1%
229. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 1%
230. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 1%
231. Niagara West CPC likely 1%
232. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 1%