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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: December 15, 2024

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection21.6% ± 3.0%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection47 [27-67]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada ©2023 7.4 seat/% [27-67] 22% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC [27-67] December 15, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 2/11 NB 3/10 QC 20/78 ON 15/122 MB 3/14 SK 1/14 AB 0/37 BC 1/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024

15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 18.5% ▼ 21.6% ± 3.0% ▼ Max. 24.6% ▼ Probabilities % LPC

Seat projection | December 15, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Min. 27 ▼ 47 ▼ Max. 67 ▼ Probabilities % LPC December 15, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
2. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
3. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
4. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
5. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
6. Saint-Laurent LPC likely >99%
7. Honoré-Mercier LPC likely >99%
8. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC likely >99%
9. Winnipeg North LPC likely >99%
10. Beaches—East York LPC likely 99%
11. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely 99%
12. Beauséjour LPC likely 98%
13. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC likely 98%
14. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely 97%
15. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely 96%
16. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC likely 96%
17. Vimy LPC likely 95%
18. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely 95%
19. Gatineau LPC likely 95%
20. Cape Spear LPC likely 93%
21. Toronto Centre LPC likely 93%
22. Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely 93%
23. Surrey Newton LPC likely 91%
24. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 90%
25. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC leaning 89%
26. Papineau LPC leaning 87%
27. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC leaning 84%
28. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC leaning 82%
29. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning 79%
30. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC leaning 77%
31. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC leaning 76%
32. Etobicoke North LPC leaning 71%
33. Ahuntsic-Cartierville Toss up LPC/BQ 69%
34. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
35. Moncton—Dieppe Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
36. Ajax Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
37. Winnipeg South Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
38. Vaudreuil Toss up LPC/BQ 65%
39. University—Rosedale Toss up LPC/NDP 64%
40. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
41. Halifax West Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
42. Mount Royal Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
43. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
44. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
45. Outremont Toss up LPC/NDP 52%
46. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP 47%
47. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
48. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 45%
49. Mississauga Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
50. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
51. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
52. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
53. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
54. Alfred-Pellan Toss up LPC/BQ 38%
55. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
56. Halifax NDP leaning 27%
57. Scarborough—Agincourt CPC leaning 27%
58. Madawaska—Restigouche CPC leaning 26%
59. Mississauga—Malton CPC leaning 26%
60. Ottawa Centre NDP leaning 26%
61. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 25%
62. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC leaning 22%
63. Don Valley West CPC leaning 21%
64. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning 16%
65. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 16%
66. Vancouver Centre CPC leaning 15%
67. Sackville—Bedford—Preston CPC leaning 15%
68. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park CPC leaning 14%
69. Guelph CPC leaning 13%
70. Davenport NDP leaning 13%
71. Waterloo CPC leaning 12%
72. Laurier—Sainte-Marie NDP leaning 11%
73. Toronto—St. Paul’s CPC leaning 10%
74. Mississauga East—Cooksville CPC leaning 10%
75. Ottawa West—Nepean CPC likely 10%
76. Brampton North—Caledon CPC likely 9%
77. Cardigan CPC likely 9%
78. Brampton Centre CPC likely 7%
79. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up CPC/NDP 7%
80. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up NDP/BQ 7%
81. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ likely 7%
82. Calgary McKnight CPC likely 6%
83. Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC likely 6%
84. Louis-Hébert Toss up CPC/BQ 6%
85. Sherbrooke BQ likely 6%
86. Québec Centre BQ likely 5%
87. Labrador CPC likely 5%
88. Yukon Toss up CPC/NDP 5%
89. Charlottetown CPC likely 5%
90. Markham—Stouffville CPC likely 5%
91. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park NDP likely 4%
92. Kingston and the Islands CPC leaning 4%
93. Egmont CPC likely 4%
94. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ likely 4%
95. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC likely 3%
96. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC likely 3%
97. Don Valley North CPC likely 3%
98. Avalon CPC likely 3%
99. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC likely 2%
100. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely 2%
101. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely 2%
102. Pickering—Brooklin CPC likely 2%
103. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely 2%
104. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC likely 1%
105. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely 1%
106. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe
2. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe
3. Bourassa LPC safe
4. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe
5. Scarborough North LPC safe
6. Saint-Laurent LPC likely
7. Honoré-Mercier LPC likely
8. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC likely
9. Winnipeg North LPC likely
10. Beaches—East York LPC likely
11. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely
12. Beauséjour LPC likely
13. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC likely
14. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely
15. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely
16. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC likely
17. Vimy LPC likely
18. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely
19. Gatineau LPC likely
20. Cape Spear LPC likely
21. Toronto Centre LPC likely
22. Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely
23. Surrey Newton LPC likely
24. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely
25. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC leaning
26. Papineau LPC leaning
27. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC leaning
28. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC leaning
29. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning
30. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC leaning
31. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC leaning
32. Etobicoke North LPC leaning
33. Ahuntsic-Cartierville Toss up LPC/BQ
34. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC
35. Moncton—Dieppe Toss up LPC/CPC
36. Ajax Toss up LPC/CPC
37. Winnipeg South Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
38. Vaudreuil Toss up LPC/BQ
39. University—Rosedale Toss up LPC/NDP
40. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC
41. Halifax West Toss up LPC/CPC
42. Mount Royal Toss up LPC/CPC
43. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Toss up LPC/CPC
44. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC
45. Outremont Toss up LPC/NDP
46. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP
47. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC
48. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
49. Mississauga Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
50. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC
51. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
52. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
53. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC
54. Alfred-Pellan Toss up LPC/BQ
55. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
56. Halifax NDP leaning
57. Scarborough—Agincourt CPC leaning
58. Madawaska—Restigouche CPC leaning
59. Mississauga—Malton CPC leaning
60. Ottawa Centre NDP leaning
61. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
62. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC leaning
63. Don Valley West CPC leaning
64. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning
65. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
66. Vancouver Centre CPC leaning
67. Sackville—Bedford—Preston CPC leaning
68. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park CPC leaning
69. Guelph CPC leaning
70. Davenport NDP leaning
71. Waterloo CPC leaning
72. Laurier—Sainte-Marie NDP leaning
73. Toronto—St. Paul’s CPC leaning
74. Mississauga East—Cooksville CPC leaning
75. Ottawa West—Nepean CPC likely
76. Brampton North—Caledon CPC likely
77. Cardigan CPC likely
78. Brampton Centre CPC likely
79. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up CPC/NDP
80. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up NDP/BQ
81. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ likely
82. Calgary McKnight CPC likely
83. Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC likely
84. Louis-Hébert Toss up CPC/BQ
85. Sherbrooke BQ likely
86. Québec Centre BQ likely
87. Labrador CPC likely
88. Yukon Toss up CPC/NDP
89. Charlottetown CPC likely
90. Markham—Stouffville CPC likely
91. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park NDP likely
92. Kingston and the Islands CPC leaning
93. Egmont CPC likely
94. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ likely
95. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC likely
96. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC likely
97. Don Valley North CPC likely
98. Avalon CPC likely
99. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC likely
100. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely
101. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely
102. Pickering—Brooklin CPC likely
103. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely
104. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC likely
105. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely
106. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely