338Canada | Liberal Party of Canada





Last update: November 28, 2021

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection33.6% ± 3.8%
Current number of MP's159
Current seat projection162 [128-185]



Vote Projection | Liberal Party of Canada | November 28, 2021




Seat Projection | Liberal Party of Canada | November 28, 2021




Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
2. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe >99%
3. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe >99%
6. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
7. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe >99%
8. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
9. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
10. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe >99%
11. Mount Royal LPC safe >99%
12. Etobicoke North LPC safe >99%
13. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe >99%
14. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe >99%
15. Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
16. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
17. Scarborough Centre LPC safe >99%
18. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
19. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe >99%
20. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
21. Ajax LPC safe >99%
22. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
23. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe >99%
24. Surrey–Newton LPC safe >99%
25. Brampton West LPC safe >99%
26. Beaches–East York LPC safe >99%
27. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
28. York South–Weston LPC safe >99%
29. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe >99%
30. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe >99%
31. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
32. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
33. Vimy LPC safe >99%
34. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
35. Papineau LPC safe >99%
36. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe >99%
37. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe >99%
38. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe >99%
39. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
40. Pontiac LPC safe >99%
41. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe >99%
42. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe >99%
43. Mississauga Centre LPC safe >99%
44. Brampton East LPC safe >99%
45. Orléans LPC safe >99%
46. Vancouver South LPC safe >99%
47. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
48. Don Valley North LPC safe >99%
49. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
50. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe >99%
51. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
52. Brampton North LPC safe >99%
53. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe >99%
54. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
55. North Vancouver LPC safe >99%
56. Guelph LPC safe >99%
57. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe >99%
58. Brampton South LPC safe >99%
59. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
60. Outremont LPC safe >99%
61. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
62. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
63. University–Rosedale LPC safe >99%
64. Milton LPC safe >99%
65. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe >99%
66. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
67. Kings–Hants LPC safe >99%
68. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC safe >99%
69. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
70. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
71. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC safe >99%
72. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
73. Cardigan LPC safe >99%
74. Surrey Centre LPC safe >99%
75. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe >99%
76. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe >99%
77. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe >99%
78. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
79. Willowdale LPC safe >99%
80. Avalon LPC safe >99%
81. Central Nova LPC safe >99%
82. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
83. Saint John–Rothesay LPC safe >99%
84. Brampton Centre LPC likely 99%
85. Markham–Stouffville LPC likely 99%
86. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely 99%
87. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely 99%
88. Sherbrooke LPC likely 99%
89. Charlottetown LPC likely 99%
90. Calgary Skyview LPC likely 99%
91. Egmont LPC likely 99%
92. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 99%
93. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely 99%
94. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely 98%
95. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC likely 98%
96. Nepean LPC likely 98%
97. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely 98%
98. Hochelaga LPC likely 98%
99. Québec LPC likely 97%
100. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely 97%
101. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC likely 97%
102. Delta LPC likely 97%
103. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely 97%
104. Steveston–Richmond East LPC likely 97%
105. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC likely 96%
106. Vancouver Centre LPC likely 96%
107. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC likely 95%
108. York Centre LPC likely 94%
109. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely 94%
110. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely 94%
111. Malpeque LPC likely 94%
112. Burlington LPC likely 94%
113. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely 94%
114. London North Centre LPC likely 94%
115. Whitby LPC likely 93%
116. Richmond Hill LPC likely 93%
117. St. John’s East LPC likely 93%
118. Labrador LPC likely 92%
119. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC likely 91%
120. Ottawa Centre LPC likely 91%
121. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning 90%
122. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning 90%
123. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning 89%
124. Oakville LPC leaning 89%
125. Long Range Mountains LPC leaning 89%
126. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC leaning 89%
127. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning 88%
128. Yukon LPC leaning 87%
129. Markham–Unionville LPC leaning 86%
130. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning 86%
131. St. Catharines LPC leaning 86%
132. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning 84%
133. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC leaning 84%
134. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley LPC leaning 84%
135. Sydney–Victoria LPC leaning 83%
136. London West LPC leaning 82%
137. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning 81%
138. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC leaning 78%
139. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning 78%
140. Niagara Centre LPC leaning 78%
141. Cambridge LPC leaning 78%
142. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning 77%
143. Fredericton LPC leaning 75%
144. Richmond Centre LPC leaning 75%
145. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning 75%
146. Nickel Belt LPC leaning 74%
147. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill LPC leaning 73%
148. Northwest Territories LPC leaning 71%
149. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
150. Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
151. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 65%
152. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ 63%
153. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
154. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 59%
155. Sault Ste. Marie Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
156. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
157. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/NDP 59%
158. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP 56%
159. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 56%
160. Sudbury Toss up LPC/NDP 56%
161. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 56%
162. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP 52%
163. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP 50%
164. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP 49%
165. South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
166. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up LPC/BQ 44%
167. Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
168. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
169. King–Vaughan Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
170. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up LPC/BQ 42%
171. Windsor–Tecumseh NDP leaning 29%
172. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC leaning 29%
173. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC leaning 26%
174. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 25%
175. Bay of Quinte CPC leaning 25%
176. Shefford BQ leaning 24%
177. Niagara Falls CPC leaning 24%
178. La Prairie BQ leaning 24%
179. Montarville BQ leaning 17%
180. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning 11%
181. Terrebonne BQ likely 10%
182. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely 9%
183. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely 8%
184. Nunavut NDP likely 8%
185. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely 6%
186. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC likely 6%
187. Burnaby South NDP likely 5%
188. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 4%
189. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC likely 3%
190. Calgary Confederation CPC likely 2%
191. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning 2%
192. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely 2%
193. Simcoe North CPC likely 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe
2. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe
3. Scarborough North LPC safe
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe
6. Bourassa LPC safe
7. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe
8. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
9. Saint-Laurent LPC safe
10. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe
11. Mount Royal LPC safe
12. Etobicoke North LPC safe
13. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe
14. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe
15. Don Valley East LPC safe
16. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe
17. Scarborough Centre LPC safe
18. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe
19. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe
20. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe
21. Ajax LPC safe
22. Beauséjour LPC safe
23. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe
24. Surrey–Newton LPC safe
25. Brampton West LPC safe
26. Beaches–East York LPC safe
27. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
28. York South–Weston LPC safe
29. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe
30. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe
31. Gatineau LPC safe
32. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
33. Vimy LPC safe
34. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe
35. Papineau LPC safe
36. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe
37. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe
38. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe
39. Ottawa South LPC safe
40. Pontiac LPC safe
41. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe
42. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe
43. Mississauga Centre LPC safe
44. Brampton East LPC safe
45. Orléans LPC safe
46. Vancouver South LPC safe
47. Halifax West LPC safe
48. Don Valley North LPC safe
49. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe
50. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe
51. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe
52. Brampton North LPC safe
53. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe
54. Winnipeg North LPC safe
55. North Vancouver LPC safe
56. Guelph LPC safe
57. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe
58. Brampton South LPC safe
59. Toronto Centre LPC safe
60. Outremont LPC safe
61. Waterloo LPC safe
62. Winnipeg South LPC safe
63. University–Rosedale LPC safe
64. Milton LPC safe
65. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe
66. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe
67. Kings–Hants LPC safe
68. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC safe
69. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe
70. Louis-Hébert LPC safe
71. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC safe
72. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe
73. Cardigan LPC safe
74. Surrey Centre LPC safe
75. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe
76. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe
77. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe
78. Don Valley West LPC safe
79. Willowdale LPC safe
80. Avalon LPC safe
81. Central Nova LPC safe
82. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe
83. Saint John–Rothesay LPC safe
84. Brampton Centre LPC likely
85. Markham–Stouffville LPC likely
86. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely
87. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely
88. Sherbrooke LPC likely
89. Charlottetown LPC likely
90. Calgary Skyview LPC likely
91. Egmont LPC likely
92. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely
93. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely
94. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely
95. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC likely
96. Nepean LPC likely
97. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely
98. Hochelaga LPC likely
99. Québec LPC likely
100. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely
101. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC likely
102. Delta LPC likely
103. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely
104. Steveston–Richmond East LPC likely
105. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC likely
106. Vancouver Centre LPC likely
107. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC likely
108. York Centre LPC likely
109. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely
110. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely
111. Malpeque LPC likely
112. Burlington LPC likely
113. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely
114. London North Centre LPC likely
115. Whitby LPC likely
116. Richmond Hill LPC likely
117. St. John’s East LPC likely
118. Labrador LPC likely
119. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC likely
120. Ottawa Centre LPC likely
121. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning
122. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning
123. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning
124. Oakville LPC leaning
125. Long Range Mountains LPC leaning
126. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC leaning
127. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC leaning
128. Yukon LPC leaning
129. Markham–Unionville LPC leaning
130. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning
131. St. Catharines LPC leaning
132. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning
133. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC leaning
134. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley LPC leaning
135. Sydney–Victoria LPC leaning
136. London West LPC leaning
137. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning
138. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC leaning
139. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning
140. Niagara Centre LPC leaning
141. Cambridge LPC leaning
142. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning
143. Fredericton LPC leaning
144. Richmond Centre LPC leaning
145. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning
146. Nickel Belt LPC leaning
147. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill LPC leaning
148. Northwest Territories LPC leaning
149. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC
150. Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC
151. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
152. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ
153. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC
154. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
155. Sault Ste. Marie Toss up LPC/CPC
156. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Toss up LPC/CPC
157. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/NDP
158. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP
159. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
160. Sudbury Toss up LPC/NDP
161. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
162. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
163. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP
164. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
165. South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC
166. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up LPC/BQ
167. Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC
168. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC
169. King–Vaughan Toss up LPC/CPC
170. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up LPC/BQ
171. Windsor–Tecumseh NDP leaning
172. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC leaning
173. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC leaning
174. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
175. Bay of Quinte CPC leaning
176. Shefford BQ leaning
177. Niagara Falls CPC leaning
178. La Prairie BQ leaning
179. Montarville BQ leaning
180. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning
181. Terrebonne BQ likely
182. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely
183. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely
184. Nunavut NDP likely
185. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely
186. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC likely
187. Burnaby South NDP likely
188. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
189. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC likely
190. Calgary Confederation CPC likely
191. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning
192. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
193. Simcoe North CPC likely



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