Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: January 4, 2026

Leader	Mark Carney
National popular vote in 2025	43.8%
Current vote projection	39.4% ± 3.9%
Current number of MPs	171
Current seat projection	156 [122-190]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | January 4, 2026

Seat projection | January 4, 2026

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada

	Districts and MPs	Current party	Projection
1.	Cape Spear Tom Osborne	L	LPC safe
2.	Acadie—Bathurst Serge Cormier	L	LPC safe
3.	Winnipeg South Centre Ben Carr	L	LPC safe
4.	Orléans Marie-France Lalonde	L	LPC safe
5.	Lac-Saint-Louis Francis Scarpaleggia	L	LPC safe
6.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Darren Fisher	L	LPC safe
7.	Halifax West Lena Metlege Diab	L	LPC safe
8.	Beaches—East York Nathaniel Erskine-Smith	L	LPC safe
9.	Nepean Mark Carney	L	LPC safe
10.	St. Boniface—St. Vital Ginette Lavack	L	LPC safe
11.	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel Patricia Lattanzio	L	LPC safe
12.	Vancouver Quadra Wade Grant	L	LPC safe
13.	Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Mona Fortier	L	LPC safe
14.	Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Gary Anandasangaree	L	LPC safe
15.	Ottawa South David McGuinty	L	LPC safe
16.	Don Valley West Rob Oliphant	L	LPC safe
17.	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Anna Gainey	L	LPC safe
18.	Vancouver Granville Taleeb Noormohamed	L	LPC safe
19.	Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs Marc Miller	L	LPC safe
20.	Kingston and the Islands Mark Gerretsen	L	LPC safe
21.	Brossard—Saint-Lambert Alexandra Mendes	L	LPC safe
22.	Pierrefonds—Dollard Sameer Zuberi	L	LPC safe
23.	St. John’s East Joanne Thompson	L	LPC safe
24.	Ottawa West—Nepean Anita Vandenbeld	L	LPC safe
25.	Hull—Aylmer Greg Fergus	L	LPC safe
26.	Toronto—Danforth Julie Dabrusin	L	LPC safe
27.	Halifax Shannon Miedema	L	LPC safe
28.	Gatineau Steven MacKinnon	L	LPC safe
29.	Scarborough Southwest Bill Blair	L	LPC safe
30.	University—Rosedale Chrystia Freeland	L	LPC safe
31.	Honoré-Mercier Eric St-Pierre	L	LPC safe
32.	Ahuntsic-Cartierville Melanie Joly	L	LPC safe
33.	Saint-Laurent Emmanuella Lambropoulos	L	LPC safe
34.	Toronto Centre Evan Solomon	L	LPC safe
35.	Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle Anju Dhillon	L	LPC safe
36.	Waterloo Bardish Chagger	L	LPC safe
37.	Vaudreuil Peter Schiefke	L	LPC safe
38.	Bourassa Abdelhaq Sari	L	LPC safe
39.	Spadina—Harbourfront Chi Nguyen	L	LPC safe
40.	Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Sophie Chatel	L	LPC safe
41.	Louis-Hébert Joel Lightbound	L	LPC safe
42.	Alfred-Pellan Angelo Iacono	L	LPC safe
43.	Vimy Annie Koutrakis	L	LPC safe
44.	Outremont Rachel Bendayan	L	LPC safe
45.	Papineau Marjorie Michel	L	LPC safe
46.	Moncton—Dieppe Ginette Petitpas Taylor	L	LPC safe
47.	Sackville—Bedford—Preston Braedon Clark	L	LPC safe
48.	Scarborough North Shaun Chen	L	LPC safe
49.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Leslie Church	L	LPC safe
50.	London Centre Peter Fragiskatos	L	LPC safe
51.	Winnipeg South Terry Duguid	L	LPC safe
52.	Guelph Dominique O’Rourke	L	LPC safe
53.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie Steven Guilbeault	L	LPC safe
54.	Fredericton—Oromocto David Myles	L	LPC safe
55.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Claude Guay	L	LPC safe
56.	Kanata Jenna Sudds	L	LPC safe
57.	Beauséjour Dominic LeBlanc	L	LPC safe
58.	Kings—Hants Kody Blois	L	LPC safe
59.	Saint-Maurice—Champlain Francois-Philippe Champagne	L	LPC safe
60.	Charlottetown Sean Casey	L	LPC safe
61.	Scarborough—Woburn Michael Coteau	L	LPC safe
62.	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country Patrick Weiler	L	LPC safe
63.	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Carlos Leitao	L	LPC safe
64.	Vancouver Centre Hedy Fry	L	LPC safe
65.	Winnipeg North Kevin Lamoureux	L	LPC safe
66.	North Vancouver—Capilano Jonathan Wilkinson	L	LPC safe
67.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Stephanie McLean	L	LPC safe
68.	Laval—Les Îles Faycal El-Khoury	L	LPC safe
69.	Burnaby North—Seymour Terry Beech	L	LPC safe
70.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Buckley Belanger	L	LPC safe
71.	Victoria Will Greaves	L	LPC safe
72.	Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Stephane Lauzon	L	LPC likely
73.	Avalon Paul Connors	L	LPC likely
74.	Davenport Julie Dzerowicz	L	LPC likely
75.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas JP Danko	L	LPC likely
76.	Ottawa Centre Yasir Naqvi	L	LPC likely
77.	London West Arielle Kayabaga	L	LPC likely
78.	Sherbrooke Elisabeth Briere	L	LPC likely
79.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore James Maloney	L	LPC likely
80.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Patty Hajdu	L	LPC likely
81.	Saint John—Kennebecasis Wayne Long	L	LPC likely
82.	Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Salma Zahid	L	LPC likely
83.	Humber River—Black Creek Judy Sgro	L	LPC likely
84.	Ajax Jennifer McKelvie	L	LPC likely
85.	Winnipeg West Doug Eyolfson	L	LPC likely
86.	Malpeque Heath MacDonald	L	LPC likely
87.	Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Sherry Romanado	L	LPC likely
88.	Burlington Karina Gould	L	LPC likely
89.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Iqra Khalid	L	LPC likely
90.	Sydney—Glace Bay Mike Kelloway	L	LPC likely
91.	Cardigan Kent McDonald	L	LPC likely
92.	Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Giovanna Mingarelli	L	LPC likely
93.	York South—Weston—Etobicoke Ahmed Hussen	L	LPC likely
94.	Brome—Missisquoi Louis Villeneuve	L	LPC likely
95.	Compton—Stanstead Marianne Dandurand	L	LPC likely
96.	Peterborough Emma Harrison	L	LPC likely
97.	Mount Royal Anthony Housefather	L	LPC likely
98.	Madawaska—Restigouche Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault	L	LPC likely
99.	Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Marie-Gabrielle Menard	L	LPC likely
100.	Pickering—Brooklin Juanita Nathan	L	LPC likely
101.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Gregor Robertson	L	LPC likely
102.	Sudbury Viviane Lapointe	L	LPC likely
103.	Northwest Territories Rebecca Alty	L	LPC likely
104.	St. Catharines Chris Bittle	L	LPC likely
105.	Markham—Thornhill Tim Hodgson	L	LPC likely
106.	Yukon Brendan Hanley	L	LPC likely
107.	South Shore—St. Margarets Jessica Fancy-Landry	L	LPC likely
108.	Mississauga Centre Fares Al Soud	L	LPC likely
109.	Edmonton Centre Eleanor Olszewski	L	LPC likely
110.	Scarborough—Agincourt Jean Yip	L	LPC likely
111.	Etobicoke North John Zerucelli	L	LPC likely
112.	Mississauga—Malton Iqwinder Gaheer	L	LPC likely
113.	Don Valley North Maggie Chi	L	LPC likely
114.	Etobicoke Centre Yvan Baker	L	LPC leaning
115.	Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville Nathalie Provost	L	LPC leaning
116.	Whitby Ryan Turnbull	L	LPC leaning
117.	Willowdale Ali Ehsassi	L	LPC leaning
118.	Burlington North—Milton West Adam van Koeverden	L	LPC leaning
119.	Oakville West Sima Acan	L	LPC leaning
120.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa	L	LPC leaning
121.	Central Nova Sean Fraser	L	LPC leaning
122.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Karim Bardeesy	L	LPC leaning
123.	Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish Jaime Battiste	L	LPC leaning
124.	Trois-Rivières Caroline Desrochers	L	LPC leaning
125.	Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez	L	LPC leaning
126.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Rebecca Chartrand	L	LPC leaning
127.	Oakville East Anita Anand	L	LPC leaning
128.	Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek	L	LPC leaning
129.	Egmont Bobby Morrissey	L	LPC leaning
130.	Delta Jill McKnight	L	LPC leaning
131.	Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette	L	LPC leaning
132.	Labrador Philip Earle	L	LPC leaning
133.	Thérèse-De Blainville Madeleine Chenette	L	LPC leaning
134.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca	L	LPC leaning
135.	Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski	L	LPC leaning
136.	Carleton Bruce Fanjoy	L	LPC leaning
137.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles Linda Lapointe	L	Toss up LPC/BQ
138.	Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
139.	Québec Centre Jean-Yves Duclos	L	Toss up LPC/BQ
140.	Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
141.	Brampton East Maninder Sidhu	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
142.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba	L	Toss up LPC/BQ
143.	Acadie—Annapolis Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
144.	Surrey Newton Sukh Dhaliwal	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
145.	Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
146.	Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
147.	Burnaby Central Wade Wei Lin Chang	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
148.	Calgary Confederation Corey Hogan	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
149.	Surrey Centre Randeep Sarai	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
150.	South Surrey—White Rock Ernie Klassen	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
151.	Brampton South Sonia Sidhu	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
152.	Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Ron McKinnon	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
153.	Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
154.	Cumberland—Colchester Alana Hirtle	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
155.	Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
156.	Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
157.	Kildonan—St. Paul Raquel Dancho	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
158.	Fleetwood—Port Kells Gurbux Saini	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
159.	Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
160.	La Prairie—Atateken Jacques Ramsay	L	Toss up LPC/BQ
161.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Mandy Gull	L	Toss up LPC/BQ
162.	Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
163.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
164.	Richmond East—Steveston Parm Bains	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
165.	Beauport—Limoilou Steeve Lavoie	L	Toss up LPC/BQ
166.	Port Moody—Coquitlam Zoe Royer	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
167.	Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Jonathan Rowe	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
168.	Kelowna Stephen Fuhr	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
169.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
170.	Miramichi—Grand Lake Mike Dawson	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
171.	Brampton West Amarjeet Gill	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
172.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
173.	Calgary McKnight Dalwinder Gill	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
174.	Cambridge Connie Cody	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
175.	Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana	L	Toss up LPC/NDP
176.	Regina—Wascana Michael Kram	C	CPC leaning
177.	Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence	C	CPC leaning
178.	Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]	L	CPC leaning
179.	Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena	C	CPC leaning
180.	Regina—Lewvan Warren Steinley	C	CPC leaning
181.	Simcoe North Adam Chambers	C	CPC leaning
182.	Edmonton Riverbend Matt Jeneroux	C	CPC leaning
183.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut Timothy Watchorn	L	BQ leaning
184.	Niagara South Fred Davies	C	CPC leaning
185.	Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli	C	CPC leaning
186.	Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani	C	CPC leaning
187.	Cloverdale—Langley City Tamara Jansen	C	CPC leaning
188.	Saskatoon—University Corey Tochor	C	CPC leaning
189.	Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Marc Dalton	C	CPC leaning
190.	Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid	C	CPC leaning
191.	Calgary Centre Greg McLean	C	CPC leaning
192.	Saskatoon South Kevin Waugh	C	CPC leaning
193.	Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Pierre Paul-Hus	C	CPC leaning
194.	Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland	C	CPC leaning
195.	Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett	C	CPC leaning
196.	Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong	C	CPC leaning
197.	Richmond—Arthabaska Éric Lefebvre	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
198.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger	C	CPC leaning
199.	Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton	C	CPC leaning
200.	Richmond Centre—Marpole Chak Au	C	CPC leaning
201.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley	C	CPC likely
202.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Natilien Joseph	L	BQ likely
203.	Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho	C	CPC likely
204.	Long Range Mountains Carol Anstey	C	CPC likely
205.	Nunavut Lori Idlout	N	NDP likely
206.	Edmonton West Kelly McCauley	C	CPC likely
207.	Niagara West Dean Allison	C	CPC likely
208.	Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall	C	CPC likely
209.	Winnipeg Centre Leah Gazan	N	NDP likely
210.	Terrebonne Tatiana Auguste	L	BQ likely
211.	Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys	C	CPC likely
212.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison	C	CPC likely
213.	Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Dan Albas	C	CPC likely
214.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette	C	CPC likely
215.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Richard Martel	C	BQ leaning
216.	Middlesex—London Lianne Rood	C	CPC likely
217.	Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Gérard Deltell	C	CPC likely
218.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Jake Sawatzky	L	NDP likely
219.	Shefford Andreanne Larouche	B	BQ likely
220.	Edmonton Southeast Jagsharan Singh Mahal	C	CPC likely
221.	Edmonton Gateway Tim Uppal	C	CPC likely
222.	Central Newfoundland Clifford Small	C	CPC likely
223.	Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Helena Konanz	C	CPC likely
224.	Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Scott Anderson	C	CPC likely
225.	York Centre Roman Baber	C	CPC likely
226.	Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo	C	CPC likely
227.	Langley Township—Fraser Heights Tako van Popta	C	CPC likely
228.	Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock	C	CPC likely
229.	Edmonton Northwest Billy Morin	C	CPC likely
230.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis	C	CPC likely
231.	Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb	C	CPC likely
232.	Saint John—St. Croix John Williamson	C	CPC likely
233.	Perth—Wellington John Nater	C	CPC likely
234.	Repentigny Patrick Bonin	B	BQ likely
235.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff	C	CPC likely
236.	Fundy Royal Rob Moore	C	CPC likely
237.	Abbotsford—South Langley Sukhman Singh Gill	C	CPC likely
238.	Vancouver Kingsway Don Davies	N	NDP likely
239.	Calgary Skyview Amanpreet Singh Gill	C	CPC likely
240.	La Pointe-de-l’Île Mario Beaulieu	B	BQ likely
241.	Nanaimo—Ladysmith Tamara Kronis	C	CPC likely
242.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman	C	CPC likely
243.	Edmonton Manning Ziad Aboultaif	C	CPC likely
244.	Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Frank Caputo	C	CPC likely
245.	Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata Bernard Genereux	C	CPC likely
246.	Oxford Arpan Khanna	C	CPC likely
247.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Xavier Barsalou-Duval	B	BQ likely
248.	Mirabel Jean-Denis Garon	B	BQ likely
249.	Montmorency—Charlevoix Gabriel Hardy	C	BQ likely
250.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj Alexis Deschenes	B	BQ likely
251.	Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu	C	CPC likely
252.	Saanich—Gulf Islands Elizabeth May	V	GPC likely
253.	Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan	C	CPC likely
254.	York—Durham Jacob Mantle	C	CPC likely
255.	Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Mel Arnold	C	CPC likely
256.	Windsor West Harbinder Gill	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
257.	Lévis—Lotbinière Jacques Gourde	C	CPC likely
258.	Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant	C	CPC likely
259.	Calgary Crowfoot Shuv Majumdar	C	CPC likely
260.	Laurentides—Labelle Marie-Helene Gaudreau	B	BQ likely
261.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale	C	CPC likely
262.	Rimouski—La Matapédia Maxime Blanchette-Joncas	B	BQ likely
263.	London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
264.	Saint-Jean Christine Normandin	B	BQ safe
265.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay	B	BQ safe
266.	Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Dominique Vien	C	CPC safe
267.	Berthier—Maskinongé Yves Perron	B	BQ likely
268.	Calgary Nose Hill Michelle Rempel Garner	C	CPC safe
269.	Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Joel Godin	C	CPC safe
270.	Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard	C	CPC safe
271.	Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder	C	GPC likely
272.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie Alexandre Boulerice	N	NDP safe
273.	Vancouver East Jenny Kwan	N	NDP safe
274.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp	C	CPC safe
275.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Jeff Kibble	C	NDP leaning
276.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin	C	CPC safe
277.	New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson	C	CPC safe
278.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon Claude DeBellefeuille	B	BQ safe
279.	Rivière-du-Nord Rheal Fortin	B	BQ safe
280.	Calgary Signal Hill David McKenzie	C	CPC safe
281.	Essex Chris Lewis	C	CPC safe
282.	Chilliwack—Hope Mark Strahl	C	CPC safe
283.	Saskatoon West Brad Redekopp	C	CPC safe
284.	Drummond Martin Champoux	B	BQ safe
285.	Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Brad Vis	C	CPC safe
286.	Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis	C	CPC safe
287.	Beloeil—Chambly Yves-Francois Blanchet	B	BQ safe
288.	King—Vaughan Anna Roberts	C	CPC safe
289.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan Marilene Gill	B	BQ safe
290.	Calgary Heritage Shuv Majumdar	C	CPC safe
291.	Tobique—Mactaquac Richard Bragdon	C	CPC safe
292.	Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback	C	CPC safe
293.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue Sebastien Lemire	B	BQ safe
294.	Jonquière Mario Simard	B	BQ safe