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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: December 7, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection42.2% ± 4.0%
Current number of MPs170
Current seat projection167 [133-204]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 7, 2025 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.7 seat/% 167 [133-204] 42% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × LPC 167 [133-204] December 7, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 41/78 ON 72/122 MB 7/14 SK 1/14 AB 2/37 BC 14/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | December 7, 2025

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 38.2% ▼ 42.2% ± 4.0% ▼ 2025 43.8% Max. 46.3% ▼ Probabilities % LPC December 7, 2025

Seat projection | December 7, 2025

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 133 ▼ 167 ▼ 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats Max. 204 ▼ Probabilities % LPC December 7, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
2. Orléans LPC safe >99%
3. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
4. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
5. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
6. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
7. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
8. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
9. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
10. Nepean LPC safe >99%
11. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
12. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
13. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
14. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
15. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
16. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
17. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
18. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
19. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
20. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
21. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
22. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
23. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
24. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
25. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
26. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
27. Kanata LPC safe >99%
28. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
29. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
30. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
31. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
32. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
33. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
34. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
35. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
36. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
37. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
38. Halifax LPC safe >99%
39. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
40. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
41. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
42. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
43. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
44. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
45. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
46. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
47. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
48. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
49. London Centre LPC safe >99%
50. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
51. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
52. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
53. Davenport LPC safe >99%
54. Guelph LPC safe >99%
55. Vimy LPC safe >99%
56. Outremont LPC safe >99%
57. Papineau LPC safe >99%
58. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
59. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
60. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
61. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
62. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
63. Avalon LPC safe >99%
64. Victoria LPC safe >99%
65. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
66. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
67. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
68. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
69. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
70. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
71. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
72. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
73. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC safe >99%
74. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
75. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC safe >99%
76. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
77. London West LPC safe >99%
78. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
79. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
80. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC safe >99%
81. Laval—Les Îles LPC likely >99%
82. Malpeque LPC likely >99%
83. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely >99%
84. Ajax LPC likely >99%
85. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely >99%
86. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC likely >99%
87. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely >99%
88. Cardigan LPC likely >99%
89. Burlington LPC likely >99%
90. Winnipeg West LPC likely >99%
91. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely >99%
92. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely >99%
93. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely 99%
94. Brome—Missisquoi LPC likely 99%
95. Compton—Stanstead LPC likely 99%
96. Peterborough LPC likely 99%
97. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 99%
98. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely 99%
99. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 99%
100. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC likely 99%
101. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC likely 99%
102. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
103. Sudbury LPC likely 99%
104. St. Catharines LPC likely 98%
105. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 98%
106. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 98%
107. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely 97%
108. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 97%
109. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 97%
110. Etobicoke North LPC likely 97%
111. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 97%
112. Yukon LPC likely 96%
113. Mount Royal LPC likely 96%
114. Don Valley North LPC likely 96%
115. Central Nova LPC likely 96%
116. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 96%
117. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC likely 96%
118. Whitby LPC likely 94%
119. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 94%
120. Willowdale LPC likely 94%
121. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 94%
122. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 93%
123. Oakville West LPC likely 93%
124. Trois-Rivières LPC likely 91%
125. Egmont LPC likely 90%
126. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 89%
127. Oakville East LPC leaning 88%
128. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 88%
129. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC leaning 87%
130. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 87%
131. Labrador LPC leaning 86%
132. Carleton LPC leaning 86%
133. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 86%
134. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC leaning 84%
135. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 84%
136. Québec Centre LPC leaning 83%
137. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 82%
138. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 80%
139. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC leaning 80%
140. Brampton East LPC leaning 79%
141. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC leaning 77%
142. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 77%
143. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 75%
144. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 74%
145. Delta LPC leaning 73%
146. Calgary Confederation LPC leaning 73%
147. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
148. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
149. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
150. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
151. La Prairie—Atateken Toss up LPC/BQ 67%
152. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
153. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
154. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
155. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
156. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
157. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
158. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
159. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up LPC/BQ 57%
160. Surrey Newton Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
161. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Toss up LPC/BQ 54%
162. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
163. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 52%
164. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
165. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
166. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
167. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
168. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
169. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
170. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
171. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
172. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
173. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
174. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
175. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
176. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
177. Les Pays-d’en-Haut Toss up LPC/BQ 39%
178. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
179. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
180. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
181. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
182. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
183. Bowmanville—Oshawa North Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
184. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
185. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
186. Lanark—Frontenac Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
187. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
188. Regina—Lewvan Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
189. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 30%
190. Oshawa CPC leaning 30%
191. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 28%
192. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 27%
193. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 26%
194. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 26%
195. Long Range Mountains CPC leaning 24%
196. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 22%
197. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 21%
198. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 20%
199. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ leaning 20%
200. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 19%
201. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC leaning 18%
202. Vancouver Kingsway NDP leaning 17%
203. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC leaning 17%
204. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 16%
205. Edmonton West CPC leaning 16%
206. Niagara West CPC leaning 15%
207. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 15%
208. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 15%
209. Terrebonne BQ leaning 14%
210. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC leaning 13%
211. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 12%
212. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 12%
213. Middlesex—London CPC leaning 12%
214. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 11%
215. Shefford BQ leaning 11%
216. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 11%
217. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 10%
218. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 10%
219. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord BQ leaning 10%
220. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC likely 9%
221. York Centre CPC likely 7%
222. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 7%
223. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 7%
224. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 7%
225. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 7%
226. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 7%
227. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 6%
228. Fundy Royal CPC likely 6%
229. Nunavut NDP likely 6%
230. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 6%
231. Repentigny BQ likely 5%
232. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 5%
233. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC likely 4%
234. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 4%
235. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 3%
236. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 3%
237. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely 3%
238. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 3%
239. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 3%
240. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 3%
241. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 3%
242. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely 2%
243. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 2%
244. Vancouver East NDP likely 2%
245. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 2%
246. Mirabel BQ likely 2%
247. Oxford CPC likely 2%
248. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely 2%
249. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ likely 1%
250. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 1%
251. Montmorency—Charlevoix BQ leaning 1%
252. York—Durham CPC likely 1%
253. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 1%
254. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 1%
255. London—Fanshawe Toss up CPC/NDP 1%