Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: February 15, 2026

Leader	Mark Carney
National popular vote in 2025	43.8%
Current vote projection	43.5% ± 3.9%
Current number of MPs	168
Current seat projection	185 [153-228]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Vote projection | February 15, 2026

Seat projection | February 15, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada

	Districts and MPs		Current party	Projection
1.	Acadie—Bathurst Serge Cormier		L	LPC safe
2.	Winnipeg South Centre Ben Carr		L	LPC safe
3.	Lac-Saint-Louis Francis Scarpaleggia		L	LPC safe
4.	Orléans Marie-France Lalonde		L	LPC safe
5.	Cape Spear Tom Osborne		L	LPC safe
6.	Beaches—East York Nathaniel Erskine-Smith		L	LPC safe
7.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Darren Fisher		L	LPC safe
8.	Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Mona Fortier		L	LPC safe
9.	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel Patricia Lattanzio		L	LPC safe
10.	Halifax West Lena Metlege Diab		L	LPC safe
11.	St. Boniface—St. Vital Ginette Lavack		L	LPC safe
12.	Vancouver Quadra Wade Grant		L	LPC safe
13.	Nepean Mark Carney		L	LPC safe
14.	Winnipeg South Terry Duguid		L	LPC safe
15.	Ottawa South David McGuinty		L	LPC safe
16.	Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Gary Anandasangaree		L	LPC safe
17.	Moncton—Dieppe Ginette Petitpas Taylor		L	LPC safe
18.	Toronto—Danforth Julie Dabrusin		L	LPC safe
19.	Vancouver Granville Taleeb Noormohamed		L	LPC safe
20.	Scarborough North Shaun Chen		L	LPC safe
21.	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Anna Gainey		L	LPC safe
22.	Don Valley West Rob Oliphant		L	LPC safe
23.	Ottawa West—Nepean Anita Vandenbeld		L	LPC safe
24.	Kingston and the Islands Mark Gerretsen		L	LPC safe
25.	Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs Marc Miller		L	LPC safe
26.	Winnipeg North Kevin Lamoureux		L	LPC safe
27.	Fredericton—Oromocto David Myles		L	LPC safe
28.	Sackville—Bedford—Preston Braedon Clark		L	LPC safe
29.	Brossard—Saint-Lambert Alexandra Mendes		L	LPC safe
30.	University—Rosedale Vacant			LPC safe
31.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Leslie Church		L	LPC safe
32.	Beauséjour Dominic LeBlanc		L	LPC safe
33.	Hull—Aylmer Greg Fergus		L	LPC safe
34.	Toronto Centre Evan Solomon		L	LPC safe
35.	Pierrefonds—Dollard Sameer Zuberi		L	LPC safe
36.	Scarborough Southwest Vacant			LPC safe
37.	Kanata Jenna Sudds		L	LPC safe
38.	Gatineau Steven MacKinnon		L	LPC safe
39.	Kings—Hants Kody Blois		L	LPC safe
40.	St. John’s East Joanne Thompson		L	LPC safe
41.	Ahuntsic-Cartierville Melanie Joly		L	LPC safe
42.	Honoré-Mercier Eric St-Pierre		L	LPC safe
43.	Scarborough—Woburn Michael Coteau		L	LPC safe
44.	Burnaby North—Seymour Terry Beech		L	LPC safe
45.	Halifax Shannon Miedema		L	LPC safe
46.	Saint-Laurent Emmanuella Lambropoulos		L	LPC safe
47.	Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle Anju Dhillon		L	LPC safe
48.	Spadina—Harbourfront Chi Nguyen		L	LPC safe
49.	Waterloo Bardish Chagger		L	LPC safe
50.	Bourassa Abdelhaq Sari		L	LPC safe
51.	Vaudreuil Peter Schiefke		L	LPC safe
52.	Ottawa Centre Yasir Naqvi		L	LPC safe
53.	Victoria Will Greaves		L	LPC safe
54.	Vancouver Centre Hedy Fry		L	LPC safe
55.	London West Arielle Kayabaga		L	LPC safe
56.	London Centre Peter Fragiskatos		L	LPC safe
57.	Louis-Hébert Joel Lightbound		L	LPC safe
58.	Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Sophie Chatel		L	LPC safe
59.	Alfred-Pellan Angelo Iacono		L	LPC safe
60.	Davenport Julie Dzerowicz		L	LPC safe
61.	Vimy Annie Koutrakis		L	LPC safe
62.	Outremont Rachel Bendayan		L	LPC safe
63.	Guelph Dominique O’Rourke		L	LPC safe
64.	Papineau Marjorie Michel		L	LPC safe
65.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Stephanie McLean		L	LPC safe
66.	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Carlos Leitao		L	LPC safe
67.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie Steven Guilbeault		L	LPC safe
68.	Saint-Maurice—Champlain Francois-Philippe Champagne		L	LPC safe
69.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Claude Guay		L	LPC safe
70.	Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Stephane Lauzon		L	LPC safe
71.	Charlottetown Sean Casey		L	LPC safe
72.	North Vancouver—Capilano Jonathan Wilkinson		L	LPC safe
73.	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country Patrick Weiler		L	LPC safe
74.	Winnipeg West Doug Eyolfson		L	LPC safe
75.	Laval—Les Îles Faycal El-Khoury		L	LPC safe
76.	Sherbrooke Elisabeth Briere		L	LPC safe
77.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas JP Danko		L	LPC safe
78.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore James Maloney		L	LPC safe
79.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Buckley Belanger		L	LPC safe
80.	Avalon Paul Connors		L	LPC safe
81.	Saint John—Kennebecasis Wayne Long		L	LPC safe
82.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Karim Bardeesy		L	LPC safe
83.	Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Sherry Romanado		L	LPC safe
84.	Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Salma Zahid		L	LPC safe
85.	Humber River—Black Creek Judy Sgro		L	LPC safe
86.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Patty Hajdu		L	LPC safe
87.	Brome—Missisquoi Louis Villeneuve		L	LPC safe
88.	Ajax Jennifer McKelvie		L	LPC safe
89.	Compton—Stanstead Marianne Dandurand		L	LPC safe
90.	Burlington Karina Gould		L	LPC safe
91.	Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Marie-Gabrielle Menard		L	LPC safe
92.	Sydney—Glace Bay Mike Kelloway		L	LPC likely
93.	Malpeque Heath MacDonald		L	LPC likely
94.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Iqra Khalid		L	LPC likely
95.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Gregor Robertson		L	LPC likely
96.	Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Giovanna Mingarelli		L	LPC likely
97.	Sudbury Viviane Lapointe		L	LPC likely
98.	York South—Weston—Etobicoke Ahmed Hussen		L	LPC likely
99.	Peterborough Emma Harrison		L	LPC likely
100.	Pickering—Brooklin Juanita Nathan		L	LPC likely
101.	South Shore—St. Margarets Jessica Fancy-Landry		L	LPC likely
102.	Cardigan Kent McDonald		L	LPC likely
103.	Madawaska—Restigouche Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault		L	LPC likely
104.	St. Catharines Chris Bittle		L	LPC likely
105.	Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville Nathalie Provost		L	LPC likely
106.	Markham—Thornhill Tim Hodgson		L	LPC likely
107.	Mount Royal Anthony Housefather		L	LPC likely
108.	Mississauga Centre Fares Al Soud		L	LPC likely
109.	Scarborough—Agincourt Jean Yip		L	LPC likely
110.	Mississauga—Malton Iqwinder Gaheer		L	LPC likely
111.	Trois-Rivières Caroline Desrochers		L	LPC likely
112.	Etobicoke North John Zerucelli		L	LPC likely
113.	Don Valley North Maggie Chi		L	LPC likely
114.	Etobicoke Centre Yvan Baker		L	LPC likely
115.	Whitby Ryan Turnbull		L	LPC likely
116.	Thérèse-De Blainville Madeleine Chenette		L	LPC likely
117.	Burlington North—Milton West Adam van Koeverden		L	LPC likely
118.	Northwest Territories Rebecca Alty		L	LPC likely
119.	Willowdale Ali Ehsassi		L	LPC likely
120.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa		L	LPC likely
121.	Yukon Brendan Hanley		L	LPC likely
122.	Oakville West Sima Acan		L	LPC likely
123.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles Linda Lapointe		L	LPC likely
124.	Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana		L	LPC likely
125.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Rebecca Chartrand		L	LPC likely
126.	Québec Centre Jean-Yves Duclos		L	LPC likely
127.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba		L	LPC likely
128.	Central Nova Sean Fraser		L	LPC likely
129.	Delta Jill McKnight		L	LPC likely
130.	Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez		L	LPC likely
131.	Edmonton Centre Eleanor Olszewski		L	LPC likely
132.	Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner		L	LPC likely
133.	Oakville East Anita Anand		L	LPC likely
134.	Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish Jaime Battiste		L	LPC likely
135.	Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette		L	LPC likely
136.	Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek		L	LPC likely
137.	Burnaby Central Wade Wei Lin Chang		L	LPC likely
138.	Carleton Bruce Fanjoy		L	LPC likely
139.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca		L	LPC likely
140.	Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski		L	LPC likely
141.	La Prairie—Atateken Jacques Ramsay		L	LPC likely
142.	Egmont Bobby Morrissey		L	LPC likely
143.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Jake Sawatzky		L	LPC likely
144.	Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali		L	LPC leaning
145.	Brampton East Maninder Sidhu		L	LPC leaning
146.	Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan		L	LPC leaning
147.	Labrador Philip Earle		L	LPC leaning
148.	Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort		L	LPC leaning
149.	Surrey Newton Sukh Dhaliwal		L	LPC leaning
150.	Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Ron McKinnon		L	LPC leaning
151.	Surrey Centre Randeep Sarai		L	LPC leaning
152.	Port Moody—Coquitlam Zoe Royer		L	LPC leaning
153.	South Surrey—White Rock Ernie Klassen		L	LPC leaning
154.	Beauport—Limoilou Steeve Lavoie		L	LPC leaning
155.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Mandy Gull		L	LPC leaning
156.	Acadie—Annapolis Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]		L	LPC leaning
157.	Fleetwood—Port Kells Gurbux Saini		L	LPC leaning
158.	Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro		L	LPC leaning
159.	Brampton South Sonia Sidhu		L	LPC leaning
160.	Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota		L	LPC leaning
161.	Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis		L	LPC leaning
162.	Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi		L	LPC leaning
163.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli		C	LPC leaning
164.	Cumberland—Colchester Alana Hirtle		L	LPC leaning
165.	Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen		L	LPC leaning
166.	Richmond East—Steveston Parm Bains		L	LPC leaning
167.	Calgary Confederation Corey Hogan		L	LPC leaning
168.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut Timothy Watchorn		L	LPC leaning
169.	Kelowna Stephen Fuhr		L	LPC leaning
170.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
171.	Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Jonathan Rowe		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
172.	Miramichi—Grand Lake Mike Dawson		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
173.	Brampton West Amarjeet Gill		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
174.	Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
175.	Niagara South Fred Davies		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
176.	Cambridge Connie Cody		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
177.	Kildonan—St. Paul Raquel Dancho		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
178.	Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
179.	Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Marc Dalton		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
180.	Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
181.	Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
182.	Calgary McKnight Dalwinder Gill		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
183.	Cloverdale—Langley City Tamara Jansen		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
184.	Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
185.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Natilien Joseph		L	Toss up LPC/BQ
186.	Vancouver Kingsway Don Davies		N	Toss up LPC/NDP
187.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
188.	Nunavut Lori Idlout		N	Toss up LPC/NDP
189.	Edmonton Riverbend Matt Jeneroux		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
190.	Simcoe North Adam Chambers		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
191.	Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
192.	Vancouver East Jenny Kwan		N	Toss up LPC/NDP
193.	Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
194.	Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
195.	Regina—Wascana Michael Kram		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
196.	Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
197.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
198.	Regina—Lewvan Warren Steinley		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
199.	Terrebonne Vacant			Toss up LPC/BQ
200.	Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
201.	Calgary Centre Greg McLean		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
202.	Richmond—Arthabaska Éric Lefebvre		C	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
203.	Saskatoon—University Corey Tochor		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
204.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
205.	Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Pierre Paul-Hus		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
206.	Richmond Centre—Marpole Chak Au		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
207.	Shefford Andreanne Larouche		B	Toss up LPC/BQ
208.	Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Helena Konanz		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
209.	Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
210.	Winnipeg Centre Leah Gazan		N	Toss up LPC/NDP
211.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Richard Martel		C	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
212.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
213.	Niagara West Dean Allison		C	CPC leaning
214.	Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall		C	CPC leaning
215.	Edmonton West Kelly McCauley		C	CPC leaning
216.	Long Range Mountains Carol Anstey		C	CPC leaning
217.	Saskatoon South Kevin Waugh		C	CPC leaning
218.	Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys		C	CPC leaning
219.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison		C	CPC leaning
220.	Windsor West Harbinder Gill		C	CPC leaning
221.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Jeff Kibble		C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
222.	Middlesex—London Lianne Rood		C	CPC leaning
223.	Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Dan Albas		C	CPC leaning
224.	Repentigny Patrick Bonin		B	BQ leaning
225.	Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo		C	CPC leaning
226.	Nanaimo—Ladysmith Tamara Kronis		C	CPC leaning
227.	Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Scott Anderson		C	CPC leaning
228.	Edmonton Gateway Tim Uppal		C	CPC leaning
229.	Edmonton Southeast Jagsharan Singh Mahal		C	CPC leaning
230.	Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder		C	Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
231.	London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman		C	CPC leaning
232.	Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock		C	CPC leaning
233.	Langley Township—Fraser Heights Tako van Popta		C	CPC leaning
234.	Central Newfoundland Clifford Small		C	CPC leaning
235.	York Centre Roman Baber		C	CPC leaning
236.	Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb		C	CPC leaning
237.	La Pointe-de-l’Île Mario Beaulieu		B	BQ leaning
238.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis		C	CPC leaning
239.	Perth—Wellington John Nater		C	CPC leaning
240.	Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Gérard Deltell		C	CPC leaning
241.	Edmonton Northwest Billy Morin		C	CPC leaning
242.	Saint John—St. Croix John Williamson		C	CPC leaning
243.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff		C	CPC leaning
244.	Abbotsford—South Langley Sukhman Singh Gill		C	CPC leaning
245.	Montmorency—Charlevoix Gabriel Hardy		C	Toss up CPC/BQ
246.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman		C	CPC likely
247.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj Alexis Deschenes		B	BQ likely
248.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Xavier Barsalou-Duval		B	BQ likely
249.	Mirabel Jean-Denis Garon		B	BQ likely
250.	Fundy Royal Rob Moore		C	CPC likely
251.	North Island—Powell River Aaron Gunn		C	CPC leaning
252.	Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Frank Caputo		C	CPC likely
253.	Calgary Skyview Amanpreet Singh Gill		C	CPC likely
254.	Edmonton Manning Ziad Aboultaif		C	CPC likely
255.	Oxford Arpan Khanna		C	CPC likely
256.	Saanich—Gulf Islands Elizabeth May		G	GPC likely
257.	Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu		C	CPC likely
258.	York—Durham Jacob Mantle		C	CPC likely
259.	Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan		C	CPC likely
260.	Laurentides—Labelle Marie-Helene Gaudreau		B	BQ likely
261.	Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata Bernard Genereux		C	CPC likely
262.	Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Mel Arnold		C	CPC likely
263.	Rimouski—La Matapédia Maxime Blanchette-Joncas		B	BQ likely
264.	Saint-Jean Christine Normandin		B	BQ likely
265.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay		B	BQ likely
266.	Berthier—Maskinongé Yves Perron		B	BQ likely
267.	Courtenay—Alberni Gord Johns		N	NDP leaning
268.	Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant		C	CPC likely
269.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale		C	CPC likely
270.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie Alexandre Boulerice		N	NDP likely
271.	Calgary Crowfoot Shuv Majumdar		C	CPC likely
272.	Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard		C	CPC likely
273.	Rivière-du-Nord Rheal Fortin		B	BQ likely
274.	Lévis—Lotbinière Jacques Gourde		C	CPC likely
275.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon Claude DeBellefeuille		B	BQ likely
276.	Calgary Nose Hill Michelle Rempel Garner		C	CPC likely
277.	Calgary Signal Hill David McKenzie		C	CPC likely
278.	Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis		C	CPC likely
279.	Beloeil—Chambly Yves-Francois Blanchet		B	BQ likely
280.	Essex Chris Lewis		C	CPC likely
281.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin		C	CPC likely
282.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp		C	CPC likely
283.	Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Joel Godin		C	CPC likely
284.	Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Dominique Vien		C	CPC likely
285.	Tobique—Mactaquac Richard Bragdon		C	CPC likely
286.	New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson		C	CPC likely
287.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan Marilene Gill		B	BQ likely
288.	Drummond Martin Champoux		B	BQ likely
289.	Jonquière Mario Simard		B	BQ likely
290.	Chilliwack—Hope Mark Strahl		C	CPC likely
291.	Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Brad Vis		C	CPC likely
292.	Saskatoon West Brad Redekopp		C	CPC likely
293.	Calgary Heritage Shuv Majumdar		C	CPC safe
294.	Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback		C	CPC safe
295.	King—Vaughan Anna Roberts		C	CPC safe
296.	Calgary East Jasraj Singh Hallan		C	CPC safe
297.	Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman James Bezan		C	CPC safe
298.	Joliette—Manawan Gabriel Ste-Marie		B	BQ safe
299.	Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies Rob Morrison		C	CPC safe
300.	Lac-Saint-Jean Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe		B	BQ safe
301.	Lethbridge Rachael Thomas		C	CPC safe
302.	Elmwood—Transcona Colin Reynolds		C	CPC leaning
303.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak Louis Plamondon		B	BQ safe
304.	Regina—Qu’Appelle Andrew Scheer		C	CPC safe
305.	Montcalm Luc Theriault		B	BQ safe