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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: October 26, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection42.5% ± 3.8%
Current number of MPs169
Current seat projection169 [136-203]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 26, 2025 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.5 seat/% 169 [136-203] 42% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × ✓ ✓ LPC 169 [136-203] October 26, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 42/78 ON 68/122 MB 6/14 SK 1/14 AB 2/37 BC 22/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | October 26, 2025

34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 38.7% ▼ 42.5% ± 3.8% ▼ 2025 43.8% Max. 46.2% ▼ Probabilities % LPC October 26, 2025

Seat projection | October 26, 2025

95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 136 ▼ 2021 169 seats 169 ▼ Majority 172 seats Max. 203 ▼ Probabilities % LPC October 26, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
2. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
3. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
4. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
5. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
6. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
7. Orléans LPC safe >99%
8. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
9. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
10. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
11. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
12. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
13. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
14. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
15. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
16. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
17. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
18. Nepean LPC safe >99%
19. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
20. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
21. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
22. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
23. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
24. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
25. Halifax LPC safe >99%
26. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
27. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
28. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
29. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
30. Avalon LPC safe >99%
31. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
32. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
33. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
34. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
35. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
36. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
37. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
38. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
39. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
40. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
41. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
42. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
43. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
44. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
45. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
46. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
47. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
48. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
49. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
50. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
51. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
52. Victoria LPC safe >99%
53. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
54. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
55. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
56. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
57. Davenport LPC safe >99%
58. Vimy LPC safe >99%
59. Outremont LPC safe >99%
60. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
61. Papineau LPC safe >99%
62. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
63. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
64. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
65. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
66. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
67. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
68. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
69. London Centre LPC safe >99%
70. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
71. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC safe >99%
72. Guelph LPC safe >99%
73. Kanata LPC safe >99%
74. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
75. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
76. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
77. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
78. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC safe >99%
79. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe >99%
80. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC safe >99%
81. Cardigan LPC safe >99%
82. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely >99%
83. Brome—Missisquoi LPC likely >99%
84. Compton—Stanstead LPC likely >99%
85. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC likely >99%
86. Laval—Les Îles LPC likely >99%
87. London West LPC likely >99%
88. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely >99%
89. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC likely >99%
90. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC likely >99%
91. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely >99%
92. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC likely >99%
93. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely >99%
94. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely >99%
95. Ajax LPC likely 99%
96. Winnipeg West LPC likely 99%
97. Central Nova LPC likely 99%
98. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
99. Burlington LPC likely 99%
100. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC likely 99%
101. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 99%
102. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 98%
103. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 98%
104. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 98%
105. Peterborough LPC likely 97%
106. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 97%
107. Trois-Rivières LPC likely 97%
108. Delta LPC likely 97%
109. Sudbury LPC likely 96%
110. Yukon LPC likely 96%
111. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 96%
112. Egmont LPC likely 96%
113. St. Catharines LPC likely 96%
114. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 95%
115. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC likely 95%
116. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 95%
117. Mount Royal LPC likely 93%
118. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC likely 93%
119. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 93%
120. Etobicoke North LPC likely 93%
121. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 92%
122. Labrador LPC likely 92%
123. Québec Centre LPC likely 92%
124. Don Valley North LPC likely 92%
125. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC leaning 90%
126. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning 90%
127. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 90%
128. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 89%
129. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 88%
130. Whitby LPC leaning 88%
131. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 87%
132. Willowdale LPC leaning 87%
133. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 87%
134. Burlington North—Milton West LPC leaning 86%
135. Oakville West LPC leaning 86%
136. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 86%
137. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 85%
138. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 84%
139. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 84%
140. La Prairie—Atateken LPC leaning 80%
141. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 80%
142. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 79%
143. Richmond East—Steveston LPC leaning 77%
144. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC leaning 77%
145. Oakville East LPC leaning 77%
146. Kelowna LPC leaning 76%
147. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 76%
148. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 76%
149. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 76%
150. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 75%
151. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 73%
152. Carleton LPC leaning 73%
153. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 73%
154. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up LPC/BQ 70%
155. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/NDP 69%
156. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
157. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
158. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
159. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Toss up LPC/BQ 66%
160. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
161. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 59%
162. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
163. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
164. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
165. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
166. Les Pays-d’en-Haut Toss up LPC/BQ 54%
167. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
168. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
169. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
170. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
171. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
172. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 46%
173. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
174. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
175. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
176. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
177. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
178. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
179. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
180. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
181. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
182. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ leaning 30%
183. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC leaning 29%
184. Cambridge CPC leaning 28%
185. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 28%
186. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 27%
187. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 26%
188. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 25%
189. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 24%
190. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 23%
191. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 23%
192. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 23%
193. Terrebonne BQ leaning 22%
194. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 22%
195. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 21%
196. Simcoe North CPC leaning 21%
197. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 21%
198. Niagara South CPC leaning 19%
199. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 19%
200. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 19%
201. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 18%
202. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 18%
203. Shefford BQ leaning 17%
204. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 17%
205. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 16%
206. Oshawa CPC leaning 14%
207. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 14%
208. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 14%
209. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 13%
210. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 12%
211. Edmonton West CPC leaning 12%
212. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 12%
213. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC leaning 11%
214. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC leaning 11%
215. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC leaning 11%
216. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 10%
217. Vancouver East NDP leaning 10%
218. Nunavut NDP leaning 10%
219. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC likely 9%
220. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 9%
221. Repentigny BQ likely 8%
222. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 8%
223. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 8%
224. Edmonton Gateway CPC likely 8%
225. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely 7%
226. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 7%
227. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 6%
228. Niagara West CPC likely 5%
229. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely 5%
230. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 5%
231. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 4%
232. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 4%
233. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 4%
234. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 4%
235. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 4%
236. Middlesex—London CPC likely 4%
237. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 3%
238. Mirabel BQ likely 3%
239. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 3%
240. York Centre CPC likely 2%
241. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely 2%
242. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ likely 2%
243. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 2%
244. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 2%
245. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 2%
246. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 2%
247. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 2%
248. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 2%
249. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 2%
250. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 2%
251. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 1%