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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada





Last update: May 15, 2022

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection31.8% ± 3.9%
Current number of MP's159
Current seat projection145 [100-179]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold >99%
2. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold >99%
3. Scarborough North LPC safe hold >99%
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold >99%
5. Bourassa LPC safe hold >99%
6. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold >99%
7. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold >99%
8. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold >99%
9. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold >99%
10. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold >99%
11. Mount Royal LPC safe hold >99%
12. Etobicoke North LPC safe hold >99%
13. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold >99%
14. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold >99%
15. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe hold >99%
16. Don Valley East LPC safe hold >99%
17. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold >99%
18. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold >99%
19. Scarborough Centre LPC safe hold >99%
20. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold >99%
21. Beauséjour LPC safe hold >99%
22. Gatineau LPC safe hold >99%
23. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold >99%
24. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold >99%
25. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold >99%
26. Vimy LPC safe hold >99%
27. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold >99%
28. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold >99%
29. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold >99%
30. York South–Weston LPC safe hold >99%
31. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold >99%
32. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold >99%
33. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold >99%
34. Pontiac LPC safe hold >99%
35. Winnipeg North LPC safe hold >99%
36. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe hold >99%
37. Ajax LPC safe hold >99%
38. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold >99%
39. Vancouver South LPC safe hold >99%
40. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe hold >99%
41. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe hold >99%
42. Papineau LPC safe hold >99%
43. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe hold >99%
44. Halifax West LPC safe hold >99%
45. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC safe hold >99%
46. Winnipeg South LPC safe hold >99%
47. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe hold >99%
48. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe hold >99%
49. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe hold >99%
50. Brampton West LPC safe hold >99%
51. Mississauga Centre LPC safe hold >99%
52. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe hold >99%
53. Brampton East LPC safe hold >99%
54. Louis-Hébert LPC safe hold >99%
55. Sherbrooke LPC safe hold >99%
56. Ottawa South LPC safe hold >99%
57. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe hold >99%
58. Don Valley North LPC safe hold >99%
59. Orléans LPC safe hold >99%
60. Toronto Centre LPC safe hold >99%
61. North Vancouver LPC safe hold >99%
62. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC safe hold >99%
63. University–Rosedale LPC safe hold >99%
64. Québec LPC likely hold 99%
65. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely hold 99%
66. Mississauga–Malton LPC likely hold 99%
67. Brampton North LPC likely hold 99%
68. Vancouver Quadra LPC likely hold 99%
69. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold 99%
70. Guelph LPC likely hold 99%
71. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely hold 99%
72. Kings–Hants LPC likely hold 99%
73. Hochelaga LPC likely hold 99%
74. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC likely hold 99%
75. Brampton South LPC likely hold 98%
76. Cardigan LPC likely hold 98%
77. Outremont LPC likely hold 98%
78. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely hold 98%
79. Avalon LPC likely hold 97%
80. Waterloo LPC likely hold 97%
81. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC likely hold 97%
82. Central Nova LPC likely hold 96%
83. Milton LPC likely hold 96%
84. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC likely hold 96%
85. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely hold 96%
86. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold 95%
87. Charlottetown LPC likely hold 95%
88. Egmont LPC likely hold 94%
89. Brome–Missisquoi LPC likely hold 93%
90. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold 93%
91. Willowdale LPC likely hold 93%
92. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC likely hold 92%
93. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC likely hold 92%
94. Don Valley West LPC likely hold 91%
95. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely hold 90%
96. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely hold 90%
97. Brampton Centre LPC leaning hold 90%
98. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold 89%
99. Steveston–Richmond East LPC leaning hold 89%
100. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold 89%
101. Delta LPC leaning hold 87%
102. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold 87%
103. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC leaning hold 87%
104. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning hold 86%
105. Calgary Skyview LPC leaning hold 85%
106. Labrador LPC leaning hold 85%
107. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC leaning hold 85%
108. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC leaning hold 83%
109. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold 80%
110. Kingston and the Islands LPC leaning hold 79%
111. Malpeque LPC leaning hold 78%
112. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold 75%
113. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning hold 75%
114. Nepean LPC leaning hold 74%
115. Ottawa Centre LPC leaning hold 73%
116. Yukon LPC leaning hold 73%
117. London North Centre LPC leaning hold 72%
118. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 70%
119. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ 69%
120. Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
121. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 68%
122. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP 67%
123. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
124. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP 66%
125. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
126. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
127. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 62%
128. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP 61%
129. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 61%
130. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 61%
131. York Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
132. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP 58%
133. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
134. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
135. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP 56%
136. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
137. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
138. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
139. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
140. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 54%
141. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up LPC/BQ 53%
142. La Prairie Toss up LPC/BQ 53%
143. Richmond Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
144. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 52%
145. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up LPC/BQ 49%
146. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ 49%
147. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
148. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
149. Montarville Toss up LPC/BQ 44%
150. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 43%
151. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 43%
152. Oakville Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
153. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
154. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
155. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
156. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
157. Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
158. St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
159. London West Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
160. Kanata–Carleton Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
161. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
162. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
163. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP 32%
164. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
165. Terrebonne BQ leaning hold 30%
166. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC leaning hold 26%
167. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ leaning hold 22%
168. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC leaning gain 21%
169. South Surrey–White Rock CPC leaning hold 21%
170. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC leaning gain 21%
171. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning hold 20%
172. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ leaning hold 18%
173. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain 18%
174. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC leaning hold 17%
175. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC leaning hold 16%
176. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain 12%
177. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC likely hold 8%
178. King–Vaughan CPC likely hold 6%
179. Saint-Jean BQ likely hold 6%
180. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain 5%
181. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely hold 5%
182. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold 3%
183. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold 3%
184. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely hold 2%
185. Bay of Quinte CPC likely hold 2%
186. Niagara Falls CPC likely hold 2%
187. Nunavut NDP likely hold 2%
188. Regina–Wascana CPC likely hold 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold
2. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold
3. Scarborough North LPC safe hold
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold
5. Bourassa LPC safe hold
6. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold
7. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold
8. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold
9. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold
10. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold
11. Mount Royal LPC safe hold
12. Etobicoke North LPC safe hold
13. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold
14. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold
15. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe hold
16. Don Valley East LPC safe hold
17. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold
18. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold
19. Scarborough Centre LPC safe hold
20. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold
21. Beauséjour LPC safe hold
22. Gatineau LPC safe hold
23. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
24. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold
25. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold
26. Vimy LPC safe hold
27. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold
28. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold
29. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold
30. York South–Weston LPC safe hold
31. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold
32. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold
33. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold
34. Pontiac LPC safe hold
35. Winnipeg North LPC safe hold
36. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe hold
37. Ajax LPC safe hold
38. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold
39. Vancouver South LPC safe hold
40. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe hold
41. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe hold
42. Papineau LPC safe hold
43. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe hold
44. Halifax West LPC safe hold
45. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC safe hold
46. Winnipeg South LPC safe hold
47. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe hold
48. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe hold
49. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe hold
50. Brampton West LPC safe hold
51. Mississauga Centre LPC safe hold
52. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe hold
53. Brampton East LPC safe hold
54. Louis-Hébert LPC safe hold
55. Sherbrooke LPC safe hold
56. Ottawa South LPC safe hold
57. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe hold
58. Don Valley North LPC safe hold
59. Orléans LPC safe hold
60. Toronto Centre LPC safe hold
61. North Vancouver LPC safe hold
62. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC safe hold
63. University–Rosedale LPC safe hold
64. Québec LPC likely hold
65. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely hold
66. Mississauga–Malton LPC likely hold
67. Brampton North LPC likely hold
68. Vancouver Quadra LPC likely hold
69. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold
70. Guelph LPC likely hold
71. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely hold
72. Kings–Hants LPC likely hold
73. Hochelaga LPC likely hold
74. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC likely hold
75. Brampton South LPC likely hold
76. Cardigan LPC likely hold
77. Outremont LPC likely hold
78. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely hold
79. Avalon LPC likely hold
80. Waterloo LPC likely hold
81. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC likely hold
82. Central Nova LPC likely hold
83. Milton LPC likely hold
84. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC likely hold
85. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely hold
86. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely hold
87. Charlottetown LPC likely hold
88. Egmont LPC likely hold
89. Brome–Missisquoi LPC likely hold
90. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC likely hold
91. Willowdale LPC likely hold
92. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC likely hold
93. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC likely hold
94. Don Valley West LPC likely hold
95. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely hold
96. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely hold
97. Brampton Centre LPC leaning hold
98. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold
99. Steveston–Richmond East LPC leaning hold
100. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold
101. Delta LPC leaning hold
102. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold
103. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC leaning hold
104. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning hold
105. Calgary Skyview LPC leaning hold
106. Labrador LPC leaning hold
107. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC leaning hold
108. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC leaning hold
109. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning hold
110. Kingston and the Islands LPC leaning hold
111. Malpeque LPC leaning hold
112. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC leaning hold
113. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning hold
114. Nepean LPC leaning hold
115. Ottawa Centre LPC leaning hold
116. Yukon LPC leaning hold
117. London North Centre LPC leaning hold
118. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
119. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ
120. Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
121. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
122. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
123. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Toss up LPC/CPC
124. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP
125. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC
126. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC
127. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
128. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
129. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
130. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
131. York Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
132. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP
133. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
134. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
135. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
136. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC
137. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC
138. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC
139. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
140. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
141. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up LPC/BQ
142. La Prairie Toss up LPC/BQ
143. Richmond Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
144. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
145. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up LPC/BQ
146. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ
147. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC
148. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC
149. Montarville Toss up LPC/BQ
150. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
151. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
152. Oakville Toss up LPC/CPC
153. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC
154. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
155. Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
156. Markham–Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC
157. Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC
158. St. Catharines Toss up LPC/CPC
159. London West Toss up LPC/CPC
160. Kanata–Carleton Toss up LPC/CPC
161. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC
162. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up LPC/CPC
163. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP
164. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
165. Terrebonne BQ leaning hold
166. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC leaning hold
167. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ leaning hold
168. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC leaning gain
169. South Surrey–White Rock CPC leaning hold
170. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC leaning gain
171. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning hold
172. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ leaning hold
173. Sault Ste. Marie CPC leaning gain
174. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC leaning hold
175. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC leaning hold
176. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain
177. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC likely hold
178. King–Vaughan CPC likely hold
179. Saint-Jean BQ likely hold
180. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain
181. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely hold
182. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC likely hold
183. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC likely hold
184. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely hold
185. Bay of Quinte CPC likely hold
186. Niagara Falls CPC likely hold
187. Nunavut NDP likely hold
188. Regina–Wascana CPC likely hold