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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: January 19, 2025

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection21.4% ± 3.6%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection41 [21-68]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | January 19, 2025 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada ©2023 7.6 seat/% 41 [21-68] 21% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC 41 [21-68] January 19, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 1/11 NB 2/10 QC 18/78 ON 15/122 MB 2/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 1/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | January 19, 2025

13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 17.8% ▼ 21.4% ± 3.6% ▼ Max. 25.1% ▼ Probabilities % LPC

Seat projection | January 19, 2025

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 21 ▼ 41 ▼ Max. 68 ▼ Probabilities % LPC January 19, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
2. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
3. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
4. Acadie—Bathurst LPC likely >99%
5. Scarborough North LPC likely >99%
6. Winnipeg North LPC likely >99%
7. Honoré-Mercier LPC likely >99%
8. Beaches—East York LPC likely 99%
9. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely 99%
10. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC likely 99%
11. Saint-Laurent LPC likely 97%
12. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC likely 96%
13. Toronto Centre LPC likely 95%
14. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely 93%
15. Beauséjour LPC likely 93%
16. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely 92%
17. Scarborough—Woburn LPC leaning 89%
18. Gatineau LPC leaning 88%
19. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC leaning 87%
20. Vimy LPC leaning 87%
21. Markham—Thornhill LPC leaning 86%
22. University—Rosedale LPC leaning 86%
23. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC leaning 85%
24. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 84%
25. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC leaning 79%
26. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC leaning 79%
27. Papineau LPC leaning 79%
28. Cape Spear LPC leaning 78%
29. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC leaning 77%
30. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC leaning 70%
31. Mount Royal Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
32. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
33. Etobicoke North Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
34. Ajax Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
35. Outremont Toss up LPC/NDP 63%
36. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
37. Winnipeg South Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
38. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Toss up LPC/NDP 53%
39. Vaudreuil Toss up LPC/BQ 50%
40. Pierrefonds—Dollard Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
41. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 48%
42. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
43. Moncton—Dieppe Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
44. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
45. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
46. Halifax West Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
47. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
48. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 43%
49. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
50. Mississauga Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
51. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
52. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
53. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 39%
54. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
55. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 33%
56. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
57. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 32%
58. Scarborough—Agincourt CPC leaning 26%
59. Mississauga—Malton CPC leaning 25%
60. Alfred-Pellan BQ leaning 24%
61. Davenport NDP leaning 23%
62. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 23%
63. Don Valley West CPC leaning 20%
64. Guelph CPC leaning 20%
65. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC leaning 19%
66. Vancouver Centre CPC leaning 18%
67. Laurier—Sainte-Marie NDP leaning 16%
68. Madawaska—Restigouche CPC leaning 16%
69. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park CPC leaning 14%
70. Waterloo CPC leaning 12%
71. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park NDP leaning 11%
72. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ 11%
73. Toronto—St. Paul’s CPC leaning 11%
74. Mississauga East—Cooksville CPC leaning 10%
75. Ottawa West—Nepean CPC leaning 10%
76. Brampton North—Caledon CPC likely 10%
77. Thunder Bay—Superior North CPC leaning 9%
78. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning 8%
79. Sackville—Bedford—Preston CPC likely 8%
80. Brampton Centre CPC likely 7%
81. Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC likely 7%
82. Calgary McKnight CPC likely 6%
83. Kingston and the Islands CPC leaning 6%
84. Cardigan CPC likely 5%
85. Markham—Stouffville CPC likely 5%
86. Yukon CPC leaning 4%
87. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC likely 4%
88. Don Valley North CPC likely 4%
89. Sherbrooke BQ likely 4%
90. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ likely 4%
91. Labrador CPC likely 3%
92. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC likely 3%
93. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC likely 3%
94. Charlottetown CPC likely 2%
95. Pickering—Brooklin CPC likely 2%
96. Egmont CPC likely 2%
97. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ likely 2%
98. Québec Centre BQ likely 2%
99. Avalon CPC likely 2%
100. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up CPC/NDP 2%
101. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely 2%
102. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely 1%
103. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC likely 1%
104. Nepean CPC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe
2. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe
3. Bourassa LPC safe
4. Acadie—Bathurst LPC likely
5. Scarborough North LPC likely
6. Winnipeg North LPC likely
7. Honoré-Mercier LPC likely
8. Beaches—East York LPC likely
9. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely
10. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC likely
11. Saint-Laurent LPC likely
12. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC likely
13. Toronto Centre LPC likely
14. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely
15. Beauséjour LPC likely
16. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely
17. Scarborough—Woburn LPC leaning
18. Gatineau LPC leaning
19. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC leaning
20. Vimy LPC leaning
21. Markham—Thornhill LPC leaning
22. University—Rosedale LPC leaning
23. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC leaning
24. Surrey Newton LPC leaning
25. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC leaning
26. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC leaning
27. Papineau LPC leaning
28. Cape Spear LPC leaning
29. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC leaning
30. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC leaning
31. Mount Royal Toss up LPC/CPC
32. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Toss up LPC/CPC
33. Etobicoke North Toss up LPC/CPC
34. Ajax Toss up LPC/CPC
35. Outremont Toss up LPC/NDP
36. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC
37. Winnipeg South Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
38. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Toss up LPC/NDP
39. Vaudreuil Toss up LPC/BQ
40. Pierrefonds—Dollard Toss up LPC/CPC
41. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
42. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC
43. Moncton—Dieppe Toss up LPC/CPC
44. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC
45. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC
46. Halifax West Toss up LPC/CPC
47. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
48. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
49. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Toss up LPC/CPC
50. Mississauga Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
51. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC
52. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
53. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
54. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC
55. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
56. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
57. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
58. Scarborough—Agincourt CPC leaning
59. Mississauga—Malton CPC leaning
60. Alfred-Pellan BQ leaning
61. Davenport NDP leaning
62. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
63. Don Valley West CPC leaning
64. Guelph CPC leaning
65. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC leaning
66. Vancouver Centre CPC leaning
67. Laurier—Sainte-Marie NDP leaning
68. Madawaska—Restigouche CPC leaning
69. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park CPC leaning
70. Waterloo CPC leaning
71. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park NDP leaning
72. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
73. Toronto—St. Paul’s CPC leaning
74. Mississauga East—Cooksville CPC leaning
75. Ottawa West—Nepean CPC leaning
76. Brampton North—Caledon CPC likely
77. Thunder Bay—Superior North CPC leaning
78. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning
79. Sackville—Bedford—Preston CPC likely
80. Brampton Centre CPC likely
81. Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC likely
82. Calgary McKnight CPC likely
83. Kingston and the Islands CPC leaning
84. Cardigan CPC likely
85. Markham—Stouffville CPC likely
86. Yukon CPC leaning
87. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC likely
88. Don Valley North CPC likely
89. Sherbrooke BQ likely
90. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ likely
91. Labrador CPC likely
92. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC likely
93. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC likely
94. Charlottetown CPC likely
95. Pickering—Brooklin CPC likely
96. Egmont CPC likely
97. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ likely
98. Québec Centre BQ likely
99. Avalon CPC likely
100. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up CPC/NDP
101. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely
102. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely
103. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC likely
104. Nepean CPC likely