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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: November 17, 2024

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection23.8% ± 3.2%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection66 [43-93]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada ©2023 8.9 seat/% 66 [43-93] 24% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC 66 [43-93] November 17, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 4/11 NB 4/10 QC 21/78 ON 26/122 MB 4/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 3/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024

17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 20.6% ▼ 23.8% ± 3.2% ▼ Max. 27.0% ▼ Probabilities % LPC

Seat projection | November 17, 2024

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 43 ▼ 66 ▼ Max. 93 ▼ Probabilities % LPC November 17, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
2. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
3. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
4. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
5. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
6. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
7. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
8. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe >99%
9. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
10. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
11. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
12. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
13. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely >99%
14. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely >99%
15. Toronto Centre LPC likely >99%
16. Winnipeg North LPC likely >99%
17. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely 99%
18. Cape Spear LPC likely 99%
19. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC likely 99%
20. Surrey Newton LPC likely 99%
21. Gatineau LPC likely 99%
22. Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely 99%
23. Vimy LPC likely 99%
24. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 99%
25. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely 98%
26. Papineau LPC likely 98%
27. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC likely 98%
28. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 97%
29. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely 96%
30. University—Rosedale LPC likely 95%
31. Etobicoke North LPC likely 94%
32. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely 93%
33. Ajax LPC likely 93%
34. Moncton—Dieppe LPC likely 93%
35. Halifax West LPC likely 92%
36. Brampton West LPC likely 91%
37. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely 90%
38. Outremont LPC leaning 88%
39. St. John’s East LPC leaning 88%
40. Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning 88%
41. Vaudreuil LPC leaning 87%
42. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC leaning 85%
43. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC leaning 83%
44. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning 82%
45. Orléans LPC leaning 80%
46. Brampton East LPC leaning 80%
47. Brampton South LPC leaning 78%
48. Mount Royal LPC leaning 77%
49. Ottawa South LPC leaning 77%
50. Halifax LPC leaning 76%
51. Ottawa Centre LPC leaning 75%
52. Winnipeg South Centre LPC leaning 74%
53. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 74%
54. Alfred-Pellan Toss up LPC/BQ 67%
55. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
56. Madawaska—Restigouche Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
57. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
58. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
59. Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
60. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 59%
61. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
62. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
63. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP 55%
64. Sackville—Bedford—Preston Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
65. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 50%
66. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
67. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
68. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
69. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
70. Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
71. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 42%
72. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
73. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
74. Laurier—Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP 40%
75. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
76. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 37%
77. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Toss up LPC/NDP 34%
78. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
79. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
80. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
81. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 31%
82. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning 28%
83. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning 23%
84. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning 23%
85. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ leaning 23%
86. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ 21%
87. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC leaning 21%
88. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 21%
89. Don Valley North CPC leaning 21%
90. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning 20%
91. Charlottetown CPC leaning 20%
92. Sherbrooke BQ leaning 18%
93. Avalon CPC leaning 18%
94. Egmont CPC leaning 18%
95. Québec Centre BQ leaning 17%
96. Labrador CPC leaning 16%
97. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning 16%
98. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning 14%
99. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning 13%
100. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning 12%
101. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 12%
102. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning 12%
103. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 12%
104. London Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 11%
105. Kings—Hants CPC leaning 11%
106. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC leaning 10%
107. Nepean CPC leaning 10%
108. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning 10%
109. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely 9%
110. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely 8%
111. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely 8%
112. Whitby CPC likely 6%
113. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely 6%
114. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely 5%
115. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely 4%
116. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely 4%
117. Central Nova CPC likely 4%
118. Malpeque CPC likely 3%
119. Willowdale CPC likely 3%
120. Oakville West CPC likely 3%
121. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 3%
122. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP 2%
123. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely 2%
124. Nunavut NDP likely 2%
125. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely 2%
126. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely 2%
127. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely 2%
128. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC likely 2%
129. Burlington CPC likely 2%
130. Sudbury CPC likely 1%
131. Oakville East CPC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe
2. Scarborough North LPC safe
3. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe
4. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe
5. Beaches—East York LPC safe
6. Bourassa LPC safe
7. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
8. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe
9. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
10. Saint-Laurent LPC safe
11. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe
12. Beauséjour LPC safe
13. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely
14. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely
15. Toronto Centre LPC likely
16. Winnipeg North LPC likely
17. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely
18. Cape Spear LPC likely
19. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC likely
20. Surrey Newton LPC likely
21. Gatineau LPC likely
22. Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely
23. Vimy LPC likely
24. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely
25. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely
26. Papineau LPC likely
27. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC likely
28. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely
29. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely
30. University—Rosedale LPC likely
31. Etobicoke North LPC likely
32. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely
33. Ajax LPC likely
34. Moncton—Dieppe LPC likely
35. Halifax West LPC likely
36. Brampton West LPC likely
37. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely
38. Outremont LPC leaning
39. St. John’s East LPC leaning
40. Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning
41. Vaudreuil LPC leaning
42. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC leaning
43. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC leaning
44. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning
45. Orléans LPC leaning
46. Brampton East LPC leaning
47. Brampton South LPC leaning
48. Mount Royal LPC leaning
49. Ottawa South LPC leaning
50. Halifax LPC leaning
51. Ottawa Centre LPC leaning
52. Winnipeg South Centre LPC leaning
53. Surrey Centre LPC leaning
54. Alfred-Pellan Toss up LPC/BQ
55. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC
56. Madawaska—Restigouche Toss up LPC/CPC
57. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
58. St. Boniface—St. Vital Toss up LPC/CPC
59. Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC
60. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
61. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Toss up LPC/CPC
62. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC
63. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
64. Sackville—Bedford—Preston Toss up LPC/CPC
65. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
66. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
67. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
68. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC
69. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
70. Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
71. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
72. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
73. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC
74. Laurier—Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
75. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC
76. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
77. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
78. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
79. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC
80. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
81. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
82. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning
83. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning
84. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning
85. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ leaning
86. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
87. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC leaning
88. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
89. Don Valley North CPC leaning
90. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning
91. Charlottetown CPC leaning
92. Sherbrooke BQ leaning
93. Avalon CPC leaning
94. Egmont CPC leaning
95. Québec Centre BQ leaning
96. Labrador CPC leaning
97. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning
98. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning
99. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning
100. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning
101. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
102. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning
103. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
104. London Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
105. Kings—Hants CPC leaning
106. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC leaning
107. Nepean CPC leaning
108. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning
109. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely
110. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely
111. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely
112. Whitby CPC likely
113. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely
114. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely
115. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely
116. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely
117. Central Nova CPC likely
118. Malpeque CPC likely
119. Willowdale CPC likely
120. Oakville West CPC likely
121. Richmond Hill South CPC likely
122. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP
123. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely
124. Nunavut NDP likely
125. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely
126. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely
127. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely
128. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC likely
129. Burlington CPC likely
130. Sudbury CPC likely
131. Oakville East CPC likely