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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: July 21, 2024

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection24.2% ± 3.2%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection74 [51-101]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada ©2023 8.7 seat/% 74 [51-101] 24% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC 74 [51-101] July 21, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 3/7 PEI 3/4 NS 5/11 NB 4/10 QC 25/78 ON 26/122 MB 4/14 SK 1/14 AB 0/37 BC 3/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024

17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 21.0% ▼ 24.2% ± 3.2% ▼ Max. 27.4% ▼ Probabilities % LPC

Seat projection | July 21, 2024

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 51 ▼ 74 ▼ Max. 101 ▼ Probabilities % LPC July 21, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
2. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
3. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
4. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
5. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
6. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
7. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
8. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
9. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
10. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
11. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
12. Vimy LPC safe >99%
13. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
14. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
15. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
16. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
17. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe >99%
18. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
19. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
20. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
21. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
22. Papineau LPC safe >99%
23. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
24. Surrey Newton LPC safe >99%
25. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
26. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely 99%
27. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely 99%
28. Winnipeg South LPC likely 99%
29. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely 99%
30. Gatineau LPC likely 99%
31. Halifax West LPC likely 99%
32. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 99%
33. Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely 99%
34. Outremont LPC likely 98%
35. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely 98%
36. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC likely 98%
37. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely 98%
38. University—Rosedale LPC likely 96%
39. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 95%
40. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely 95%
41. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC likely 93%
42. Ajax LPC likely 92%
43. Mount Royal LPC likely 91%
44. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC likely 90%
45. Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning 90%
46. Etobicoke North LPC leaning 89%
47. Brampton West LPC leaning 89%
48. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning 88%
49. St. John’s East LPC leaning 86%
50. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC leaning 84%
51. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC leaning 82%
52. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning 80%
53. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning 79%
54. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC leaning 79%
55. Orléans LPC leaning 78%
56. Brampton East LPC leaning 78%
57. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 76%
58. Brampton South LPC leaning 76%
59. Ottawa South LPC leaning 75%
60. Cardigan LPC leaning 73%
61. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning 72%
62. Davenport LPC leaning 71%
63. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 70%
64. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 67%
65. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 64%
66. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Toss up LPC/BQ 63%
67. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
68. Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
69. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
70. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
71. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
72. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
73. Kings—Hants Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
74. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Toss up LPC/NDP 50%
75. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
76. Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
77. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
78. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
79. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
80. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
81. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
82. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
83. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 36%
84. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
85. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ 35%
86. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 35%
87. Winnipeg West Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
88. Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
89. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
90. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 30%
91. Brampton Centre CPC leaning 30%
92. Central Nova CPC leaning 28%
93. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning 26%
94. Québec Centre BQ leaning 26%
95. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning 22%
96. Malpeque CPC leaning 20%
97. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning 20%
98. Sherbrooke BQ leaning 20%
99. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning 19%
100. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC leaning 18%
101. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC leaning 18%
102. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 14%
103. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning 14%
104. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning 14%
105. Don Valley North CPC leaning 13%
106. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning 12%
107. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC leaning 11%
108. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning 11%
109. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning 10%
110. London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP 10%
111. Nepean CPC likely 9%
112. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely 9%
113. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely 9%
114. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely 8%
115. Yukon Toss up CPC/NDP 8%
116. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC likely 8%
117. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely 7%
118. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely 7%
119. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning 7%
120. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely 6%
121. Whitby CPC likely 5%
122. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely 5%
123. Long Range Mountains CPC likely 4%
124. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely 4%
125. Churchill—Kewatinook Aski NDP likely 4%
126. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely 4%
127. Oakville West CPC likely 3%
128. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 2%
129. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely 2%
130. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely 2%
131. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely 2%
132. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP 2%
133. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 2%
134. Willowdale CPC likely 1%
135. Burlington CPC likely 1%
136. Central Newfoundland CPC likely 1%
137. Oakville East CPC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe
2. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe
3. Winnipeg North LPC safe
4. Bourassa LPC safe
5. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
6. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe
7. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe
8. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
9. Scarborough North LPC safe
10. Beauséjour LPC safe
11. Beaches—East York LPC safe
12. Vimy LPC safe
13. Saint-Laurent LPC safe
14. Cape Spear LPC safe
15. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
16. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe
17. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe
18. Toronto Centre LPC safe
19. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe
20. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe
21. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe
22. Papineau LPC safe
23. Vaudreuil LPC safe
24. Surrey Newton LPC safe
25. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe
26. Scarborough Southwest LPC likely
27. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely
28. Winnipeg South LPC likely
29. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC likely
30. Gatineau LPC likely
31. Halifax West LPC likely
32. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely
33. Scarborough—Woburn LPC likely
34. Outremont LPC likely
35. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely
36. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC likely
37. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely
38. University—Rosedale LPC likely
39. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely
40. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely
41. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC likely
42. Ajax LPC likely
43. Mount Royal LPC likely
44. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC likely
45. Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning
46. Etobicoke North LPC leaning
47. Brampton West LPC leaning
48. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning
49. St. John’s East LPC leaning
50. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC leaning
51. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC leaning
52. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning
53. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning
54. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC leaning
55. Orléans LPC leaning
56. Brampton East LPC leaning
57. Surrey Centre LPC leaning
58. Brampton South LPC leaning
59. Ottawa South LPC leaning
60. Cardigan LPC leaning
61. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning
62. Davenport LPC leaning
63. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
64. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
65. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
66. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Toss up LPC/BQ
67. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
68. Avalon Toss up LPC/CPC
69. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
70. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC
71. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC
72. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Toss up LPC/CPC
73. Kings—Hants Toss up LPC/CPC
74. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
75. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
76. Don Valley West Toss up LPC/CPC
77. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC
78. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
79. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
80. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
81. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC
82. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC
83. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
84. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC
85. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ
86. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
87. Winnipeg West Toss up LPC/CPC
88. Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
89. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC
90. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
91. Brampton Centre CPC leaning
92. Central Nova CPC leaning
93. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning
94. Québec Centre BQ leaning
95. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning
96. Malpeque CPC leaning
97. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning
98. Sherbrooke BQ leaning
99. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning
100. Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC leaning
101. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC leaning
102. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
103. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning
104. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning
105. Don Valley North CPC leaning
106. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning
107. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC leaning
108. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning
109. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning
110. London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP
111. Nepean CPC likely
112. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely
113. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely
114. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely
115. Yukon Toss up CPC/NDP
116. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas CPC likely
117. Fredericton—Oromocto CPC likely
118. Vancouver Quadra CPC likely
119. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning
120. Saint John—Kennebecasis CPC likely
121. Whitby CPC likely
122. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely
123. Long Range Mountains CPC likely
124. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely
125. Churchill—Kewatinook Aski NDP likely
126. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely
127. Oakville West CPC likely
128. Richmond Hill South CPC likely
129. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely
130. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely
131. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC likely
132. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP
133. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely
134. Willowdale CPC likely
135. Burlington CPC likely
136. Central Newfoundland CPC likely
137. Oakville East CPC likely