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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: June 29, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection44.9% ± 4.6%
Current number of MPs169
Current seat projection179 [141-225]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 29, 2025 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 11.1 seat/% 179 [141-225] 45% ± 5% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × LPC 179 [141-225] June 29, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 46/78 ON 72/122 MB 7/14 SK 1/14 AB 5/37 BC 19/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | June 29, 2025

35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 40.3% ▼ 2025 43.8% 44.9% ± 4.6% ▼ Max. 49.4% ▼ Probabilities % LPC June 29, 2025

Seat projection | June 29, 2025

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 141 ▼ 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats 179 ▼ Max. 225 ▼ Probabilities % LPC June 29, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
2. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
3. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
4. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
5. Orléans LPC safe >99%
6. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
7. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
8. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
9. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
10. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
11. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
12. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
13. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
14. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
15. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
16. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
17. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
18. Halifax LPC safe >99%
19. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
20. Nepean LPC safe >99%
21. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
22. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
23. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
24. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
25. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
26. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
27. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
28. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
29. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
30. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
31. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
32. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
33. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
34. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
35. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
36. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
37. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
38. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
39. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
40. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
41. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
42. Avalon LPC safe >99%
43. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
44. Kanata LPC safe >99%
45. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
46. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
47. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
48. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
49. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
50. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
51. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
52. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
53. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
54. Davenport LPC safe >99%
55. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
56. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
57. Outremont LPC safe >99%
58. Vimy LPC safe >99%
59. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC safe >99%
60. Guelph LPC safe >99%
61. Papineau LPC safe >99%
62. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
63. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
64. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
65. Victoria LPC safe >99%
66. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
67. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
68. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe >99%
69. Brome—Missisquoi LPC safe >99%
70. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
71. Compton—Stanstead LPC safe >99%
72. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC safe >99%
73. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
74. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC safe >99%
75. London Centre LPC safe >99%
76. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
77. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
78. Laval—Les Îles LPC safe >99%
79. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
80. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
81. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC safe >99%
82. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
83. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
84. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
85. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC safe >99%
86. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC safe >99%
87. London West LPC safe >99%
88. Trois-Rivières LPC safe >99%
89. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely >99%
90. Cardigan LPC likely >99%
91. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely >99%
92. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC likely >99%
93. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely >99%
94. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC likely >99%
95. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely >99%
96. Ajax LPC likely >99%
97. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely >99%
98. Québec Centre LPC likely >99%
99. Winnipeg West LPC likely >99%
100. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC likely >99%
101. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC likely >99%
102. Burlington LPC likely 99%
103. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 99%
104. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 99%
105. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 99%
106. Mount Royal LPC likely 99%
107. Peterborough LPC likely 99%
108. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
109. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely 99%
110. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 99%
111. La Prairie—Atateken LPC likely 99%
112. Sudbury LPC likely 98%
113. Central Nova LPC likely 98%
114. St. Catharines LPC likely 98%
115. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 98%
116. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 98%
117. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 98%
118. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 97%
119. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC likely 97%
120. Yukon LPC likely 96%
121. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 96%
122. Etobicoke North LPC likely 96%
123. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 96%
124. Don Valley North LPC likely 96%
125. Egmont LPC likely 96%
126. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 95%
127. Beauport—Limoilou LPC likely 95%
128. Whitby LPC likely 94%
129. Willowdale LPC likely 93%
130. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou LPC likely 93%
131. Oakville West LPC likely 93%
132. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 93%
133. Labrador LPC likely 93%
134. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 92%
135. Les Pays-d’en-Haut LPC likely 92%
136. Calgary Confederation LPC likely 91%
137. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 89%
138. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 88%
139. Oakville East LPC leaning 87%
140. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 86%
141. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 86%
142. Carleton LPC leaning 85%
143. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 85%
144. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 84%
145. Delta LPC leaning 83%
146. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 81%
147. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 80%
148. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 80%
149. Hamilton Centre LPC leaning 79%
150. Brampton East LPC leaning 78%
151. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 77%
152. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert LPC leaning 76%
153. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 76%
154. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 74%
155. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 74%
156. Calgary McKnight LPC leaning 72%
157. Terrebonne Toss up LPC/BQ 69%
158. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
159. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
160. Surrey Newton Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
161. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
162. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
163. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
164. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
165. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
166. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
167. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ 64%
168. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
169. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
170. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
171. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
172. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
173. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
174. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
175. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
176. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
177. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
178. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
179. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
180. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
181. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
182. Repentigny Toss up LPC/BQ 47%
183. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 47%
184. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 46%
185. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
186. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
187. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
188. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
189. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
190. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
191. Regina—Lewvan Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
192. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
193. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
194. Saskatoon—University Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
195. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
196. Bowmanville—Oshawa North Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
197. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 36%
198. La Pointe-de-l’Île Toss up LPC/BQ 34%
199. Lanark—Frontenac Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
200. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 33%
201. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
202. Central Newfoundland Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
203. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
204. Oshawa Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
205. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC leaning 30%
206. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 30%
207. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 30%
208. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 27%
209. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ leaning 25%
210. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 25%
211. Edmonton West CPC leaning 25%
212. Mirabel BQ leaning 24%
213. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ leaning 24%
214. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 23%
215. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 23%
216. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 23%
217. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 22%
218. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 21%
219. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 18%
220. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 18%
221. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 18%
222. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 17%
223. Niagara West CPC leaning 17%
224. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 17%
225. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 17%
226. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 14%
227. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 14%
228. Laurentides—Labelle BQ leaning 13%
229. Middlesex—London CPC leaning 13%
230. Edmonton Northwest CPC leaning 13%
231. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 12%
232. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC leaning 12%
233. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 11%
234. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ leaning 10%
235. Saint-Jean BQ leaning 10%
236. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ leaning 10%
237. Windsor West CPC leaning 10%
238. York Centre CPC likely 9%
239. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 9%
240. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 8%
241. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 8%
242. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 8%
243. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 8%
244. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely 7%
245. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 7%
246. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 7%
247. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 7%
248. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 7%
249. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 6%
250. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 6%
251. Vancouver East NDP likely 6%
252. London—Fanshawe CPC leaning 5%
253. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 5%
254. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ likely 5%
255. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP likely 5%
256. Rivière-du-Nord BQ likely 5%
257. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 4%
258. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 4%
259. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC likely 3%
260. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely 3%
261. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 3%
262. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 3%
263. Beloeil—Chambly BQ likely 3%
264. Oxford CPC likely 2%
265. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 2%
266. York—Durham CPC likely 2%
267. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 2%
268. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 2%
269. Drummond BQ likely 2%
270. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 1%
271. Jonquière BQ likely 1%
272. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 1%
273. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely 1%
274. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 1%
275. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC likely 1%