338Canada.com - Liberal Party of Canada





Last update: November 29, 2020

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 201933.1%
Current vote projection35.5% ± 4.6%
Current number of MP's155
Current seat projection165 ± 38



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
2. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
3. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
5. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe >99%
6. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
7. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
8. Etobicoke North LPC safe >99%
9. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe >99%
10. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe >99%
11. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe >99%
12. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
13. Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
14. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
15. Mount Royal LPC safe >99%
16. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe >99%
17. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe >99%
18. Ajax LPC safe >99%
19. York South–Weston LPC safe >99%
20. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
21. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
22. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe >99%
23. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
24. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe >99%
25. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe >99%
26. Scarborough Centre LPC safe >99%
27. Beaches–East York LPC safe >99%
28. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
29. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
30. North Vancouver LPC safe >99%
31. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
32. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
33. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
34. Long Range Mountains LPC safe >99%
35. Papineau LPC safe >99%
36. Toronto–St. Paul's LPC safe >99%
37. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe >99%
38. Pontiac LPC safe >99%
39. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
40. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe >99%
41. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe >99%
42. Outremont LPC safe >99%
43. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe >99%
44. Spadina–Fort York LPC safe >99%
45. Brampton West LPC safe >99%
46. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
47. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
48. Cardigan LPC safe >99%
49. Delta LPC safe >99%
50. Vancouver South LPC safe >99%
51. Kings–Hants LPC safe >99%
52. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
53. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
54. Orléans LPC safe >99%
55. Avalon LPC safe >99%
56. St. John's South–Mount Pearl LPC safe >99%
57. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe >99%
58. Mississauga Centre LPC safe >99%
59. Surrey–Newton LPC safe >99%
60. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
61. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe >99%
62. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
63. Vimy LPC safe >99%
64. South Shore–St. Margarets LPC safe >99%
65. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC safe >99%
66. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe >99%
67. University–Rosedale LPC safe >99%
68. Brampton North LPC safe >99%
69. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
70. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
71. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
72. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
73. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
74. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe >99%
75. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC safe >99%
76. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe >99%
77. Brampton South LPC safe >99%
78. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
79. Brampton Centre LPC safe >99%
80. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe >99%
81. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe >99%
82. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
83. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC safe >99%
84. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC safe >99%
85. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe >99%
86. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely 99%
87. Markham–Thornhill LPC likely 99%
88. Surrey Centre LPC likely 99%
89. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely 99%
90. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely 99%
91. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely 99%
92. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC likely 99%
93. Halifax LPC likely 99%
94. Egmont LPC likely 99%
95. London West LPC likely 99%
96. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely 99%
97. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 99%
98. Guelph LPC likely 98%
99. London North Centre LPC likely 98%
100. Labrador LPC likely 98%
101. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely 98%
102. Burlington LPC likely 98%
103. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely 98%
104. Brampton East LPC likely 97%
105. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely 97%
106. Central Nova LPC likely 97%
107. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC likely 97%
108. Milton LPC likely 96%
109. Don Valley North LPC likely 96%
110. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely 96%
111. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely 96%
112. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely 96%
113. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely 95%
114. Ottawa Centre LPC likely 95%
115. Nepean LPC likely 95%
116. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely 94%
117. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely 94%
118. Kitchener Centre LPC likely 94%
119. Willowdale LPC likely 93%
120. Brome–Missisquoi LPC likely 93%
121. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely 92%
122. Cambridge LPC likely 92%
123. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely 91%
124. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely 90%
125. Sherbrooke LPC leaning 89%
126. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning 88%
127. South Surrey–White Rock LPC leaning 88%
128. St. Catharines LPC leaning 88%
129. Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning 88%
130. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning 87%
131. Toronto Centre LPC leaning 86%
132. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning 86%
133. Northwest Territories LPC leaning 85%
134. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning 85%
135. Hochelaga LPC leaning 84%
136. Whitby LPC leaning 84%
137. Parkdale–High Park LPC leaning 84%
138. West Nova LPC leaning 83%
139. Québec LPC leaning 83%
140. Steveston–Richmond East LPC leaning 80%
141. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning 79%
142. Oakville LPC leaning 78%
143. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning 78%
144. Shefford LPC leaning 77%
145. Toronto–Danforth LPC leaning 76%
146. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley LPC leaning 75%
147. Sudbury LPC leaning 74%
148. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning 71%
149. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge LPC leaning 70%
150. Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up 69%
151. York Centre Toss up 65%
152. Yukon Toss up 64%
153. Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up 63%
154. Kelowna–Lake Country Toss up 63%
155. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up 63%
156. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up 62%
157. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up 61%
158. La Prairie Toss up 60%
159. Bay of Quinte Toss up 57%
160. Trois-Rivières Toss up 57%
161. Vancouver Granville Toss up 57%
162. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up 55%
163. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Toss up 53%
164. Markham–Stouffville Toss up 53%
165. Niagara Centre Toss up 51%
166. King–Vaughan Toss up 50%
167. Montarville Toss up 47%
168. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up 46%
169. Nickel Belt Toss up 45%
170. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Toss up 44%
171. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up 44%
172. Richmond Hill Toss up 43%
173. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up 43%
174. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up 42%
175. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up 41%
176. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up 40%
177. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou Toss up 40%
178. Richmond Centre Toss up 35%
179. Davenport Toss up 35%
180. Regina–Wascana Toss up 33%
181. Fredericton Toss up 33%
182. Winnipeg Centre Toss up 31%
183. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up 31%
184. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC leaning 29%
185. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning 27%
186. Niagara Falls CPC leaning 26%
187. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning 25%
188. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC leaning 24%
189. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC leaning 22%
190. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning 21%
191. Langley–Aldergrove CPC leaning 21%
192. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up 21%
193. Laurentides–Labelle BQ leaning 20%
194. Saint-Jean BQ leaning 17%
195. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning 17%
196. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC leaning 15%
197. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 15%
198. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ leaning 13%
199. La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ leaning 12%
200. Kenora Toss up 11%
201. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 11%
202. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning 10%
203. Nunavut NDP likely 10%
204. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC likely 9%
205. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely 8%
206. St. John's East NDP likely 7%
207. Fundy Royal CPC likely 7%
208. Dufferin–Caledon CPC likely 6%
209. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 6%
210. Markham–Unionville CPC likely 6%
211. Windsor West NDP likely 5%
212. Brantford–Brant CPC likely 4%
213. Terrebonne BQ likely 4%
214. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ leaning 4%
215. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely 4%
216. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC likely 3%
217. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely 3%
218. Carleton CPC likely 3%
219. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely 3%
220. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely 3%
221. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely 3%
222. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ likely 3%
223. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely 2%
224. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ likely 2%
225. Victoria NDP likely 2%
226. Simcoe North CPC likely 2%
227. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely 2%
228. Niagara West CPC likely 2%
229. Edmonton West CPC likely 2%
230. Durham CPC likely 1%
231. Burnaby South NDP likely 1%
232. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ likely 1%
233. Repentigny BQ likely <1%
234. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely <1%
235. Abbotsford CPC likely <1%
236. Huron–Bruce CPC likely <1%
237. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up <1%
238. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely <1%
239. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely <1%
240. Chilliwack–Hope CPC likely <1%
241. Mirabel BQ likely <1%
242. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
2. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe
3. Winnipeg North LPC safe
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe
5. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe
6. Bourassa LPC safe
7. Saint-Laurent LPC safe
8. Etobicoke North LPC safe
9. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe
10. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe
11. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe
12. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe
13. Don Valley East LPC safe
14. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe
15. Mount Royal LPC safe
16. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe
17. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe
18. Ajax LPC safe
19. York South–Weston LPC safe
20. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe
21. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe
22. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe
23. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe
24. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe
25. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe
26. Scarborough Centre LPC safe
27. Beaches–East York LPC safe
28. Beauséjour LPC safe
29. Halifax West LPC safe
30. North Vancouver LPC safe
31. Gatineau LPC safe
32. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
33. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
34. Long Range Mountains LPC safe
35. Papineau LPC safe
36. Toronto–St. Paul's LPC safe
37. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe
38. Pontiac LPC safe
39. Ottawa South LPC safe
40. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe
41. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe
42. Outremont LPC safe
43. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe
44. Spadina–Fort York LPC safe
45. Brampton West LPC safe
46. Vancouver Centre LPC safe
47. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC safe
48. Cardigan LPC safe
49. Delta LPC safe
50. Vancouver South LPC safe
51. Kings–Hants LPC safe
52. Charlottetown LPC safe
53. Winnipeg South LPC safe
54. Orléans LPC safe
55. Avalon LPC safe
56. St. John's South–Mount Pearl LPC safe
57. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe
58. Mississauga Centre LPC safe
59. Surrey–Newton LPC safe
60. Waterloo LPC safe
61. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe
62. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe
63. Vimy LPC safe
64. South Shore–St. Margarets LPC safe
65. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC safe
66. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe
67. University–Rosedale LPC safe
68. Brampton North LPC safe
69. Malpeque LPC safe
70. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe
71. Don Valley West LPC safe
72. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe
73. Scarborough North LPC safe
74. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe
75. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC safe
76. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe
77. Brampton South LPC safe
78. Louis-Hébert LPC safe
79. Brampton Centre LPC safe
80. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe
81. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe
82. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC safe
83. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC safe
84. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC safe
85. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe
86. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely
87. Markham–Thornhill LPC likely
88. Surrey Centre LPC likely
89. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely
90. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely
91. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely
92. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC likely
93. Halifax LPC likely
94. Egmont LPC likely
95. London West LPC likely
96. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely
97. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely
98. Guelph LPC likely
99. London North Centre LPC likely
100. Labrador LPC likely
101. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely
102. Burlington LPC likely
103. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely
104. Brampton East LPC likely
105. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely
106. Central Nova LPC likely
107. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC likely
108. Milton LPC likely
109. Don Valley North LPC likely
110. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely
111. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely
112. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely
113. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely
114. Ottawa Centre LPC likely
115. Nepean LPC likely
116. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely
117. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely
118. Kitchener Centre LPC likely
119. Willowdale LPC likely
120. Brome–Missisquoi LPC likely
121. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely
122. Cambridge LPC likely
123. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely
124. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
125. Sherbrooke LPC leaning
126. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning
127. South Surrey–White Rock LPC leaning
128. St. Catharines LPC leaning
129. Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning
130. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning
131. Toronto Centre LPC leaning
132. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning
133. Northwest Territories LPC leaning
134. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning
135. Hochelaga LPC leaning
136. Whitby LPC leaning
137. Parkdale–High Park LPC leaning
138. West Nova LPC leaning
139. Québec LPC leaning
140. Steveston–Richmond East LPC leaning
141. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning
142. Oakville LPC leaning
143. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning
144. Shefford LPC leaning
145. Toronto–Danforth LPC leaning
146. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley LPC leaning
147. Sudbury LPC leaning
148. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning
149. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge LPC leaning
150. Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up
151. York Centre Toss up
152. Yukon Toss up
153. Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up
154. Kelowna–Lake Country Toss up
155. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up
156. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up
157. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up
158. La Prairie Toss up
159. Bay of Quinte Toss up
160. Trois-Rivières Toss up
161. Vancouver Granville Toss up
162. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up
163. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Toss up
164. Markham–Stouffville Toss up
165. Niagara Centre Toss up
166. King–Vaughan Toss up
167. Montarville Toss up
168. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up
169. Nickel Belt Toss up
170. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Toss up
171. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up
172. Richmond Hill Toss up
173. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up
174. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up
175. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up
176. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up
177. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou Toss up
178. Richmond Centre Toss up
179. Davenport Toss up
180. Regina–Wascana Toss up
181. Fredericton Toss up
182. Winnipeg Centre Toss up
183. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up
184. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC leaning
185. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning
186. Niagara Falls CPC leaning
187. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning
188. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC leaning
189. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC leaning
190. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning
191. Langley–Aldergrove CPC leaning
192. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up
193. Laurentides–Labelle BQ leaning
194. Saint-Jean BQ leaning
195. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning
196. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC leaning
197. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning
198. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ leaning
199. La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ leaning
200. Kenora Toss up
201. Calgary Centre CPC leaning
202. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning
203. Nunavut NDP likely
204. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC likely
205. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely
206. St. John's East NDP likely
207. Fundy Royal CPC likely
208. Dufferin–Caledon CPC likely
209. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
210. Markham–Unionville CPC likely
211. Windsor West NDP likely
212. Brantford–Brant CPC likely
213. Terrebonne BQ likely
214. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ leaning
215. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely
216. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC likely
217. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely
218. Carleton CPC likely
219. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely
220. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely
221. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely
222. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ likely
223. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely
224. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ likely
225. Victoria NDP likely
226. Simcoe North CPC likely
227. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely
228. Niagara West CPC likely
229. Edmonton West CPC likely
230. Durham CPC likely
231. Burnaby South NDP likely
232. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ likely
233. Repentigny BQ likely
234. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely
235. Abbotsford CPC likely
236. Huron–Bruce CPC likely
237. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up
238. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely
239. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
240. Chilliwack–Hope CPC likely
241. Mirabel BQ likely
242. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up