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Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: May 10, 2026
LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection46.1% ± 3.6%
Current number of MPs174
Current seat projection221 [184-254]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 10, 2026 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 11.3 seat/% 221 [184-254] 46% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

LPC 221 [184-254] May 10, 2026 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 49/78 ON 96/122 MB 7/14 SK 4/14 AB 7/37 BC 28/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | May 10, 2026

38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 42.5% 2025 43.8% 46.1% ± 3.6% Max. 49.7% Probabilities % LPC May 10, 2026

Seat projection | May 10, 2026

140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats Min. 184 221 Max. 254 Probabilities % LPC May 10, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Districts and MPs Current party Projection
1.
Francis Scarpaleggia
L LPC safe
2.
Marie-France Lalonde
L LPC safe
3.
Patricia Lattanzio
L LPC safe
4. L LPC safe
5. L LPC safe
6. L LPC safe
7.
Rob Oliphant
L LPC safe
8.
Shaun Chen
L LPC safe
9. L LPC safe
10.
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
L LPC safe
11.
Serge Cormier
L LPC safe
12. L LPC safe
13.
Mark Carney
L LPC safe
14.
Julie Dabrusin
L LPC safe
15. L LPC safe
16.
Alexandra Mendes
L LPC safe
17.
Leslie Church
L LPC safe
18.
Wade Grant
L LPC safe
19.
David McGuinty
L LPC safe
20.
Tom Osborne
L LPC safe
21.
Sameer Zuberi
L LPC safe
22.
Greg Fergus
L LPC safe
23.
Steven MacKinnon
L LPC safe
24.
Ginette Lavack
L LPC safe
25.
Taleeb Noormohamed
L LPC safe
26.
Darren Fisher
L LPC safe
27.
Terry Duguid
L LPC safe
28.
Melanie Joly
L LPC safe
29. L LPC safe
30.
Eric St-Pierre
L LPC safe
31.
Evan Solomon
L LPC safe
32.
Michael Coteau
L LPC safe
33.
Danielle Martin
L LPC safe
34.
Mark Gerretsen
L LPC safe
35.
Lena Metlege Diab
L LPC safe
36.
Emmanuella Lambropoulos
L LPC safe
37. L LPC safe
38.
Sean Casey
L LPC safe
39.
Jenna Sudds
L LPC safe
40.
Kevin Lamoureux
L LPC safe
41.
Anita Vandenbeld
L LPC safe
42.
Ginette Petitpas Taylor
L LPC safe
43.
Abdelhaq Sari
L LPC safe
44.
Peter Schiefke
L LPC safe
45.
James Maloney
L LPC safe
46. L LPC safe
47.
Jonathan Wilkinson
L LPC safe
48. L LPC safe
49. L LPC safe
50. L LPC safe
51. L LPC safe
52. L LPC safe
53.
Dominic LeBlanc
L LPC safe
54.
Kody Blois
L LPC safe
55.
Bardish Chagger
L LPC safe
56.
Joel Lightbound
L LPC safe
57.
Will Greaves
L LPC safe
58. L LPC safe
59. L LPC safe
60.
Sophie Chatel
L LPC safe
61.
Joanne Thompson
L LPC safe
62. L LPC safe
63.
Yvan Baker
L LPC safe
64.
Angelo Iacono
L LPC safe
65. L LPC safe
66.
Karina Gould
L LPC safe
67.
Jennifer McKelvie
L LPC safe
68.
Paul Connors
L LPC safe
69.
Hedy Fry
L LPC safe
70.
Arielle Kayabaga
L LPC safe
71.
Shannon Miedema
L LPC safe
72.
Annie Koutrakis
L LPC safe
73.
Giovanna Mingarelli
L LPC safe
74. L LPC safe
75.
Yasir Naqvi
L LPC safe
76. L LPC safe
77.
Anthony Housefather
L LPC safe
78.
Rachel Bendayan
L LPC safe
79.
Peter Fragiskatos
L LPC safe
80.
Carlos Leitao
L LPC safe
81.
Julie Dzerowicz
L LPC safe
82.
Marjorie Michel
L LPC safe
83.
Faycal El-Khoury
L LPC safe
84.
Francois-Philippe Champagne
L LPC safe
85.
Elisabeth Briere
L LPC safe
86.
Dominique O’Rourke
L LPC safe
87.
Steven Guilbeault
L LPC safe
88.
Stephanie McLean
L LPC safe
89. L LPC safe
90.
Sherry Romanado
L LPC safe
91.
Louis Villeneuve
L LPC safe
92. L LPC safe
93.
Marianne Dandurand
L LPC safe
94.
Marie-Gabrielle Menard
L LPC safe
95.
Doug Eyolfson
L LPC safe
96. L LPC safe
97.
Maggie Chi
L LPC safe
98.
John Zerucelli
L LPC safe
99.
Juanita Nathan
L LPC safe
100.
Emma Harrison
L LPC safe
101.
Viviane Lapointe
L LPC safe
102.
Chris Bittle
L LPC safe
103. L LPC safe
104. L LPC safe
105.
Eleanor Olszewski
L LPC safe
106.
Ali Ehsassi
L LPC safe
107.
Tim Hodgson
L LPC safe
108.
Caroline Desrochers
L LPC safe
109.
Fares Al Soud
L LPC safe
110.
Mike Kelloway
L LPC safe
111.
Madeleine Chenette
L LPC safe
112.
Iqwinder Gaheer
L LPC safe
113.
Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba
L LPC safe
114.
Heath MacDonald
L LPC safe
115.
Jessica Fancy-Landry
L LPC safe
116.
Linda Lapointe
L LPC safe
117.
Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault
L LPC safe
118.
Ryan Turnbull
L LPC safe
119.
Charles Sousa
L LPC safe
120.
Sima Acan
L LPC safe
121. L LPC safe
122.
Adam van Koeverden
L LPC likely
123.
Brendan Hanley
L LPC likely
124.
Jean-Yves Duclos
L LPC likely
125.
Kent McDonald
L LPC likely
126.
Rebecca Alty
L LPC likely
127.
Jill McKnight
L LPC likely
128.
Bruce Fanjoy
L LPC likely
129.
Lisa Hepfner
L LPC likely
130. L LPC likely
131.
Anita Anand
L LPC likely
132.
Helena Jaczek
L LPC likely
133.
Vince Gasparro
L LPC likely
134.
Christopher Malette
L LPC likely
135.
Corey Hogan
L LPC likely
136.
Wade Wei Lin Chang
L LPC likely
137. L LPC likely
138.
Marcus Powlowski
L LPC likely
139.
Jacques Ramsay
L LPC likely
140. L LPC likely
141.
Sean Fraser
L LPC likely
142.
Steeve Lavoie
L LPC likely
143.
Maninder Sidhu
L LPC likely
144.
Pauline Rochefort
L LPC likely
145. L LPC likely
146. L LPC likely
147. L LPC likely
148. L LPC likely
149. L LPC likely
150.
Randeep Sarai
L LPC likely
151. L LPC likely
152.
Sukh Dhaliwal
L LPC likely
153. C LPC likely
154.
Gurbux Saini
L LPC likely
155. L LPC likely
156.
Timothy Watchorn
L LPC likely
157. L LPC likely
158.
Sonia Sidhu
L LPC likely
159.
Kristina Tesser Derksen
L LPC likely
160.
Bobby Morrissey
L LPC likely
161.
Amandeep Sodhi
L LPC likely
162.
Rebecca Chartrand
L LPC likely
163. L LPC likely
164.
Dalwinder Gill
C LPC likely
165.
Stephen Fuhr
L LPC likely
166. L LPC likely
167.
Philip Earle
L LPC likely
168. C LPC likely
169.
Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
170.
Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
171.
Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
172. L LPC leaning
173.
Aslam Rana
L LPC leaning
174.
Philip Lawrence
C LPC leaning
175.
Sandra Cobena
C LPC leaning
176.
Fred Davies
C LPC leaning
177.
Natilien Joseph
L LPC leaning
178. C LPC leaning
179.
Kelly McCauley
C LPC leaning
180. C LPC leaning
181. C LPC leaning
182. C LPC leaning
183.
Greg McLean
C LPC leaning
184.
Raquel Dancho
C LPC leaning
185. C LPC leaning
186. C LPC leaning
187.
Amarjeet Gill
C LPC leaning
188.
Adam Chambers
C LPC leaning
189.
Connie Cody
C LPC leaning
190. C LPC leaning
191. C Toss up LPC/CPC
192.
Richard Martel
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
193. C Toss up LPC/CPC
194.
Scott Reid
C Toss up LPC/CPC
195.
Tatiana Auguste
L Toss up LPC/BQ
196.
Roman Baber
C Toss up LPC/CPC
197.
Andreanne Larouche
B Toss up LPC/BQ
198. C Toss up LPC/CPC
199.
Warren Steinley
C Toss up LPC/CPC
200.
Jagsharan Singh Mahal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
201.
Éric Lefebvre
C Toss up LPC/CPC
202.
Rhonda Kirkland
C Toss up LPC/CPC
203. C Toss up LPC/CPC
204.
Dean Allison
C Toss up LPC/CPC
205. C Toss up LPC/CPC
206.
Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]
L Toss up LPC/NDP
207.
Michael Kram
C Toss up LPC/CPC
208.
Corey Tochor
C Toss up LPC/CPC
209.
Scott Aitchison
C Toss up LPC/CPC
210.
Tamara Kronis
C Toss up LPC/CPC
211. C Toss up LPC/CPC
212. C Toss up LPC/CPC
213.
Terry Dowdall
C Toss up LPC/CPC
214.
Vincent Neil Ho
C Toss up LPC/CPC
215. C Toss up LPC/CPC
216. C Toss up LPC/CPC
217.
Mario Beaulieu
B Toss up LPC/BQ
218. C Toss up LPC/CPC
219.
Patrick Bonin
B Toss up LPC/BQ
220. C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
221.
Don Davies
N Toss up LPC/NDP
222.
Jenny Kwan
N Toss up LPC/NDP
223.
Eric Melillo
C Toss up LPC/CPC
224. C Toss up LPC/CPC
225. C Toss up LPC/CPC
226.
Ziad Aboultaif
C Toss up LPC/CPC
227. C Toss up LPC/CPC
228.
Billy Morin
C Toss up LPC/CPC
229.
Ben Lobb
C Toss up LPC/CPC
230.
Amanpreet Singh Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
231. C Toss up LPC/CPC
232. C Toss up LPC/CPC
233. C Toss up LPC/CPC
234.
Carol Anstey
C Toss up LPC/CPC
235.
Kevin Waugh
C Toss up LPC/CPC
236.
Tim Uppal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
237.
John Nater
C Toss up LPC/CPC
238.
Harbinder Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
239.
Jean-Denis Garon
B Toss up LPC/BQ
240. B Toss up LPC/BQ
241.
Sukhman Singh Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
242. B Toss up LPC/BQ
243. C Toss up LPC/CPC
244.
Shuv Majumdar
C Toss up LPC/CPC
245.
Leah Gazan
N Toss up LPC/NDP
246.
Kelly DeRidder
C Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
247.
Kurt Holman
C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
248. C CPC leaning
249. C CPC leaning
250. C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
251.
Lianne Rood
C CPC leaning
252.
Michelle Rempel Garner
C CPC leaning
253.
Gabriel Hardy
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
254.
Arpan Khanna
C CPC leaning
255.
David McKenzie
C CPC leaning
256.
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas
B BQ leaning
257.
Marie-Helene Gaudreau
B BQ leaning
258.
Clifford Small
C CPC leaning
259.
Jacob Mantle
C CPC leaning
260.
Christine Normandin
B BQ leaning
261.
Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay
B BQ leaning
262. B BQ leaning
263.
John Williamson
C CPC leaning
264. C CPC leaning
265.
Rob Moore
C CPC leaning
266. C CPC leaning
267. L CPC leaning
268. C CPC leaning
269. C CPC leaning
270. C CPC leaning
271.
Jacques Gourde
C CPC likely
272. B BQ likely
273.
Rheal Fortin
B BQ likely
274.
Alexandre Boulerice
I NDP likely
275.
Elizabeth May
G GPC likely
276.
Shuv Majumdar
C CPC likely
277.
Yves-Francois Blanchet
B BQ likely
278.
John Brassard
C CPC likely
279.
Gord Johns
N NDP leaning
280.
Jasraj Singh Hallan
C CPC likely
281. C CPC likely
282.
Chris Lewis
C CPC likely
283.
Leslyn Lewis
C CPC likely
284.
Martin Champoux
B BQ likely
285.
Michael Guglielmin
C CPC likely
286. C CPC likely
287. C CPC likely
288.
Rachael Thomas
C CPC likely
289. C CPC likely
290.
Mario Simard
B BQ likely
291. B BQ likely
292.
Mark Strahl
C CPC likely
293. C CPC likely
294.
Gabriel Ste-Marie
B BQ likely
295.
Richard Bragdon
C CPC likely
296.
Brad Redekopp
C CPC likely
297.
Kyle Seeback
C CPC likely
298.
Anna Roberts
C CPC likely
299. C CPC likely
300. B BQ likely
301. C CPC likely
302.
Luc Theriault
B BQ likely
303.
Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe
B BQ likely
304.
Sebastien Lemire
B BQ likely
305.
Stephanie Kusie
C CPC safe
306. C CPC safe
307.
Colin Reynolds
C Toss up CPC/NDP
308.
Kerry Diotte
C Toss up CPC/NDP
309.
Tom Kmiec
C CPC safe
310. C CPC safe
311.
Melissa Lantsman
C CPC safe
312. C CPC safe
313.
Andrew Scheer
C CPC safe