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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: November 26, 2023

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection26.5% ± 3.4%
Current number of MP's158
Current seat projection73 [53-105]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 26, 2023 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada ©2023 8.6 seat/% 73 [53-105] 26% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC 73 [53-105] November 26, 2023 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 1/4 NS 2/11 NB 4/10 QC 32/78 ON 24/121 MB 4/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/34 BC 4/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | November 26, 2023

19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 23.1% ▼ 26.5% ± 3.4% ▼ Max. 29.8% ▼ 2021 32.6% Probabilities % LPC

Seat projection | November 26, 2023

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 53 ▼ 73 ▼ Max. 105 ▼ Probabilities % LPC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold >99%
2. Scarborough North LPC safe hold >99%
3. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold >99%
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold >99%
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold >99%
6. Bourassa LPC safe hold >99%
7. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold >99%
8. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold >99%
9. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold >99%
10. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold >99%
11. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold >99%
12. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold >99%
13. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold >99%
14. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold >99%
15. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold >99%
16. Vimy LPC safe hold >99%
17. Gatineau LPC safe hold >99%
18. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold >99%
19. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold >99%
20. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold >99%
21. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold >99%
22. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold >99%
23. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold >99%
24. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold >99%
25. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold >99%
26. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold >99%
27. York South–Weston LPC safe hold >99%
28. Mount Royal LPC safe hold >99%
29. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold >99%
30. Don Valley East LPC safe hold >99%
31. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe hold >99%
32. Beauséjour LPC likely hold 99%
33. Papineau LPC likely hold 99%
34. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC likely hold 99%
35. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold 99%
36. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC likely hold 98%
37. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold 98%
38. Winnipeg North LPC likely hold 98%
39. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely hold 97%
40. Halifax West LPC likely hold 96%
41. Ajax LPC likely hold 96%
42. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold 96%
43. Winnipeg South LPC likely hold 95%
44. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely hold 94%
45. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold 94%
46. Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold 93%
47. Vancouver South LPC likely hold 91%
48. Pontiac LPC likely hold 90%
49. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold 90%
50. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold 90%
51. Brampton East LPC leaning hold 88%
52. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold 87%
53. Brampton West LPC leaning hold 86%
54. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold 86%
55. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold 85%
56. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC leaning hold 83%
57. Sherbrooke LPC leaning hold 82%
58. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning hold 79%
59. Outremont LPC leaning hold 78%
60. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC leaning hold 78%
61. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning hold 75%
62. Don Valley North LPC leaning hold 73%
63. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
64. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
65. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ 68%
66. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
67. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP 62%
68. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
69. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
70. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP 58%
71. Québec Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 57%
72. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ 51%
73. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 49%
74. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
75. Milton Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
76. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 45%
77. Compton–Stanstead Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 43%
78. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 40%
79. Mississauga East–Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
80. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
81. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
82. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 36%
83. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
84. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
85. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 34%
86. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ 34%
87. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
88. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
89. Mississauga–Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
90. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 31%
91. Parkdale–High Park NDP leaning gain 30%
92. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain 29%
93. Brome–Missisquoi Toss up LPC/BQ 29%
94. Vancouver Quadra CPC leaning gain 28%
95. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain 26%
96. Davenport NDP leaning gain 25%
97. North Vancouver CPC leaning gain 25%
98. Guelph CPC leaning gain 25%
99. Willowdale CPC leaning gain 23%
100. Labrador CPC leaning gain 23%
101. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning gain 20%
102. Don Valley West CPC leaning gain 20%
103. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain 19%
104. Markham–Stouffville CPC leaning gain 19%
105. Saint John–Rothesay CPC leaning gain 18%
106. Waterloo CPC leaning gain 18%
107. Avalon CPC leaning gain 17%
108. Central Nova CPC leaning gain 17%
109. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 17%
110. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC leaning gain 16%
111. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC leaning gain 16%
112. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 15%
113. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain 13%
114. Cape Breton–Canso CPC leaning gain 13%
115. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC leaning gain 12%
116. Malpeque CPC leaning gain 11%
117. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain 10%
118. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain 9%
119. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain 9%
120. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ likely hold 8%
121. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain 8%
122. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain 8%
123. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC likely gain 8%
124. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely hold 8%
125. Nepean CPC likely gain 7%
126. Delta CPC likely gain 7%
127. London North Centre CPC leaning gain 7%
128. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain 7%
129. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain 6%
130. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely hold 6%
131. York Centre CPC likely gain 5%
132. La Prairie BQ likely hold 5%
133. Whitby CPC likely gain 4%
134. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ likely hold 4%
135. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain 3%
136. Richmond Hill CPC likely gain 3%
137. Montarville BQ likely hold 3%
138. Burlington CPC likely gain 3%
139. Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain 3%
140. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP 3%
141. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC likely gain 3%
142. Shefford BQ likely hold 2%
143. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain 2%
144. Oakville CPC likely gain 2%
145. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain 2%
146. Terrebonne BQ likely hold 1%
147. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC likely gain 1%
148. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC likely gain 1%
149. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC likely gain 1%
150. Newmarket–Aurora CPC likely gain 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold
2. Scarborough North LPC safe hold
3. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold
6. Bourassa LPC safe hold
7. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold
8. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold
9. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold
10. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold
11. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold
12. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold
13. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold
14. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold
15. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold
16. Vimy LPC safe hold
17. Gatineau LPC safe hold
18. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold
19. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold
20. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold
21. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold
22. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold
23. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold
24. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold
25. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold
26. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold
27. York South–Weston LPC safe hold
28. Mount Royal LPC safe hold
29. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
30. Don Valley East LPC safe hold
31. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe hold
32. Beauséjour LPC likely hold
33. Papineau LPC likely hold
34. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC likely hold
35. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold
36. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC likely hold
37. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold
38. Winnipeg North LPC likely hold
39. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely hold
40. Halifax West LPC likely hold
41. Ajax LPC likely hold
42. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
43. Winnipeg South LPC likely hold
44. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely hold
45. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold
46. Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold
47. Vancouver South LPC likely hold
48. Pontiac LPC likely hold
49. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold
50. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold
51. Brampton East LPC leaning hold
52. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold
53. Brampton West LPC leaning hold
54. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold
55. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold
56. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC leaning hold
57. Sherbrooke LPC leaning hold
58. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning hold
59. Outremont LPC leaning hold
60. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC leaning hold
61. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning hold
62. Don Valley North LPC leaning hold
63. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
64. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC
65. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ
66. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
67. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP
68. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
69. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
70. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
71. Québec Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
72. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ
73. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
74. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
75. Milton Toss up LPC/CPC
76. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
77. Compton–Stanstead Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
78. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
79. Mississauga East–Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC
80. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
81. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC
82. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
83. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC
84. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC
85. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
86. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ
87. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC
88. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC
89. Mississauga–Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC
90. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
91. Parkdale–High Park NDP leaning gain
92. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain
93. Brome–Missisquoi Toss up LPC/BQ
94. Vancouver Quadra CPC leaning gain
95. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain
96. Davenport NDP leaning gain
97. North Vancouver CPC leaning gain
98. Guelph CPC leaning gain
99. Willowdale CPC leaning gain
100. Labrador CPC leaning gain
101. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning gain
102. Don Valley West CPC leaning gain
103. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain
104. Markham–Stouffville CPC leaning gain
105. Saint John–Rothesay CPC leaning gain
106. Waterloo CPC leaning gain
107. Avalon CPC leaning gain
108. Central Nova CPC leaning gain
109. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
110. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC leaning gain
111. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC leaning gain
112. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
113. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain
114. Cape Breton–Canso CPC leaning gain
115. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC leaning gain
116. Malpeque CPC leaning gain
117. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain
118. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain
119. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain
120. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ likely hold
121. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain
122. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain
123. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
124. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely hold
125. Nepean CPC likely gain
126. Delta CPC likely gain
127. London North Centre CPC leaning gain
128. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain
129. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain
130. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely hold
131. York Centre CPC likely gain
132. La Prairie BQ likely hold
133. Whitby CPC likely gain
134. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ likely hold
135. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain
136. Richmond Hill CPC likely gain
137. Montarville BQ likely hold
138. Burlington CPC likely gain
139. Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain
140. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP
141. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC likely gain
142. Shefford BQ likely hold
143. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain
144. Oakville CPC likely gain
145. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain
146. Terrebonne BQ likely hold
147. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC likely gain
148. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC likely gain
149. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC likely gain
150. Newmarket–Aurora CPC likely gain