338Canada.com - Liberal Party of Canada





Last update: January 17, 2021

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 201933.1%
Current vote projection36.3% ± 4.7%
Current number of MP's155
Current seat projection170 ± 37



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
2. Etobicoke North LPC safe >99%
3. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
4. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
5. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe >99%
6. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
7. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe >99%
8. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe >99%
9. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe >99%
10. Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
11. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
12. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
13. Cardigan LPC safe >99%
14. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe >99%
15. Ajax LPC safe >99%
16. York South–Weston LPC safe >99%
17. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
18. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
19. Mississauga Centre LPC safe >99%
20. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
21. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
22. Scarborough Centre LPC safe >99%
23. Orléans LPC safe >99%
24. Beaches–East York LPC safe >99%
25. Spadina–Fort York LPC safe >99%
26. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
27. Mount Royal LPC safe >99%
28. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe >99%
29. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe >99%
30. Brampton West LPC safe >99%
31. Toronto–St. Paul's LPC safe >99%
32. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe >99%
33. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
34. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
35. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe >99%
36. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe >99%
37. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
38. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
39. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
40. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
41. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
42. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
43. Brampton North LPC safe >99%
44. North Vancouver LPC safe >99%
45. Papineau LPC safe >99%
46. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe >99%
47. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
48. Pontiac LPC safe >99%
49. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe >99%
50. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
51. Avalon LPC safe >99%
52. Kings–Hants LPC safe >99%
53. Outremont LPC safe >99%
54. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC safe >99%
55. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe >99%
56. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
57. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
58. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe >99%
59. Delta LPC safe >99%
60. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
61. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe >99%
62. South Shore–St. Margarets LPC safe >99%
63. Long Range Mountains LPC safe >99%
64. Brampton South LPC safe >99%
65. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
66. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe >99%
67. Vancouver South LPC safe >99%
68. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe >99%
69. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe >99%
70. University–Rosedale LPC safe >99%
71. Surrey–Newton LPC safe >99%
72. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
73. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe >99%
74. Brampton Centre LPC safe >99%
75. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC safe >99%
76. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe >99%
77. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe >99%
78. Vimy LPC safe >99%
79. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC safe >99%
80. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
81. Etobicoke Centre LPC safe >99%
82. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe >99%
83. St. John's South–Mount Pearl LPC safe >99%
84. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC safe >99%
85. Burlington LPC safe >99%
86. Guelph LPC safe >99%
87. London West LPC safe >99%
88. Saint John–Rothesay LPC safe >99%
89. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
90. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC safe >99%
91. Don Valley North LPC safe >99%
92. Milton LPC safe >99%
93. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC safe >99%
94. Nepean LPC safe >99%
95. Egmont LPC safe >99%
96. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC safe >99%
97. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe >99%
98. Willowdale LPC likely 99%
99. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely 99%
100. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely 99%
101. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC likely 99%
102. Louis-Hébert LPC likely 99%
103. London North Centre LPC likely 99%
104. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely 99%
105. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely 99%
106. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC likely 99%
107. Central Nova LPC likely 99%
108. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely 99%
109. Surrey Centre LPC likely 99%
110. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely 99%
111. Kitchener Centre LPC likely 99%
112. Cambridge LPC likely 99%
113. Brampton East LPC likely 99%
114. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely 99%
115. St. Catharines LPC likely 98%
116. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely 98%
117. Whitby LPC likely 98%
118. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely 98%
119. Ottawa Centre LPC likely 98%
120. Oakville LPC likely 97%
121. Toronto Centre LPC likely 97%
122. Kanata–Carleton LPC likely 96%
123. Labrador LPC likely 96%
124. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely 95%
125. Sault Ste. Marie LPC likely 95%
126. Halifax LPC likely 94%
127. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC likely 94%
128. Newmarket–Aurora LPC likely 94%
129. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC likely 94%
130. York Centre LPC likely 92%
131. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely 91%
132. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely 91%
133. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC likely 91%
134. Compton–Stanstead LPC leaning 90%
135. Northwest Territories LPC leaning 90%
136. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC leaning 89%
137. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 88%
138. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning 87%
139. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning 86%
140. Toronto–Danforth LPC leaning 86%
141. King–Vaughan LPC leaning 85%
142. Sudbury LPC leaning 84%
143. Kitchener–Conestoga LPC leaning 82%
144. Sherbrooke LPC leaning 81%
145. Richmond Hill LPC leaning 81%
146. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning 80%
147. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning 77%
148. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning 76%
149. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning 75%
150. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning 74%
151. Hochelaga LPC leaning 74%
152. West Nova LPC leaning 72%
153. Québec LPC leaning 72%
154. Niagara Centre LPC leaning 72%
155. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill LPC leaning 71%
156. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up 70%
157. Yukon Toss up 68%
158. Niagara Falls Toss up 64%
159. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up 63%
160. Davenport Toss up 61%
161. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up 59%
162. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up 59%
163. Nickel Belt Toss up 59%
164. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up 58%
165. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up 57%
166. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up 56%
167. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up 56%
168. Shefford Toss up 53%
169. Vancouver Granville Toss up 53%
170. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up 48%
171. La Prairie Toss up 46%
172. Steveston–Richmond East Toss up 45%
173. Fredericton Toss up 45%
174. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up 44%
175. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Toss up 43%
176. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up 41%
177. Kelowna–Lake Country Toss up 41%
178. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up 40%
179. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up 38%
180. Kenora Toss up 37%
181. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte Toss up 36%
182. Montarville Toss up 34%
183. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Toss up 34%
184. Regina–Wascana Toss up 33%
185. Trois-Rivières Toss up 33%
186. Dufferin–Caledon Toss up 32%
187. Markham–Unionville Toss up 30%
188. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ leaning 28%
189. Richmond Centre CPC leaning 27%
190. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning 26%
191. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning 23%
192. Carleton CPC leaning 22%
193. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning 22%
194. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up 20%
195. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC leaning 20%
196. Simcoe–Grey CPC leaning 18%
197. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning 18%
198. Nunavut NDP leaning 18%
199. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 16%
200. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 16%
201. Simcoe North CPC leaning 15%
202. Langley–Aldergrove CPC leaning 14%
203. Niagara West CPC leaning 14%
204. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning 14%
205. Durham CPC leaning 14%
206. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 12%
207. Laurentides–Labelle BQ leaning 12%
208. Saint-Jean BQ leaning 10%
209. Windsor West NDP leaning 10%
210. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely 10%
211. Huron–Bruce CPC likely 10%
212. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up 10%
213. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely 9%
214. Calgary Centre CPC likely 9%
215. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 8%
216. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely 8%
217. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ likely 8%
218. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely 8%
219. La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ likely 7%
220. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely 7%
221. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely 7%
222. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely 6%
223. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 5%
224. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely 5%
225. Thornhill CPC likely 4%
226. Oshawa Toss up 2%
227. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC likely 2%
228. Terrebonne BQ likely 2%
229. St. John's East NDP likely 2%
230. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC likely 2%
231. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ likely 2%
232. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely 2%
233. Perth–Wellington CPC likely 2%
234. Victoria NDP likely 2%
235. York–Simcoe CPC likely 1%
236. Burnaby South NDP likely 1%
237. Edmonton West CPC likely 1%
238. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ likely 1%
239. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely 1%
240. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ likely 1%
241. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ likely <1%
242. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC likely <1%
243. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe
2. Etobicoke North LPC safe
3. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe
4. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
5. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe
6. Winnipeg North LPC safe
7. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe
8. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe
9. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe
10. Don Valley East LPC safe
11. Saint-Laurent LPC safe
12. Bourassa LPC safe
13. Cardigan LPC safe
14. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe
15. Ajax LPC safe
16. York South–Weston LPC safe
17. Don Valley West LPC safe
18. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe
19. Mississauga Centre LPC safe
20. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe
21. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe
22. Scarborough Centre LPC safe
23. Orléans LPC safe
24. Beaches–East York LPC safe
25. Spadina–Fort York LPC safe
26. Beauséjour LPC safe
27. Mount Royal LPC safe
28. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe
29. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe
30. Brampton West LPC safe
31. Toronto–St. Paul's LPC safe
32. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe
33. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe
34. Halifax West LPC safe
35. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe
36. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe
37. Charlottetown LPC safe
38. Ottawa South LPC safe
39. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
40. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe
41. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
42. Gatineau LPC safe
43. Brampton North LPC safe
44. North Vancouver LPC safe
45. Papineau LPC safe
46. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe
47. Waterloo LPC safe
48. Pontiac LPC safe
49. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe
50. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe
51. Avalon LPC safe
52. Kings–Hants LPC safe
53. Outremont LPC safe
54. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC safe
55. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe
56. Scarborough North LPC safe
57. Vancouver Centre LPC safe
58. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe
59. Delta LPC safe
60. Winnipeg South LPC safe
61. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe
62. South Shore–St. Margarets LPC safe
63. Long Range Mountains LPC safe
64. Brampton South LPC safe
65. Malpeque LPC safe
66. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe
67. Vancouver South LPC safe
68. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe
69. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe
70. University–Rosedale LPC safe
71. Surrey–Newton LPC safe
72. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC safe
73. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe
74. Brampton Centre LPC safe
75. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC safe
76. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe
77. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe
78. Vimy LPC safe
79. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC safe
80. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe
81. Etobicoke Centre LPC safe
82. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe
83. St. John's South–Mount Pearl LPC safe
84. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC safe
85. Burlington LPC safe
86. Guelph LPC safe
87. London West LPC safe
88. Saint John–Rothesay LPC safe
89. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe
90. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC safe
91. Don Valley North LPC safe
92. Milton LPC safe
93. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC safe
94. Nepean LPC safe
95. Egmont LPC safe
96. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC safe
97. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe
98. Willowdale LPC likely
99. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely
100. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely
101. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC likely
102. Louis-Hébert LPC likely
103. London North Centre LPC likely
104. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely
105. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely
106. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC likely
107. Central Nova LPC likely
108. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
109. Surrey Centre LPC likely
110. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely
111. Kitchener Centre LPC likely
112. Cambridge LPC likely
113. Brampton East LPC likely
114. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely
115. St. Catharines LPC likely
116. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely
117. Whitby LPC likely
118. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely
119. Ottawa Centre LPC likely
120. Oakville LPC likely
121. Toronto Centre LPC likely
122. Kanata–Carleton LPC likely
123. Labrador LPC likely
124. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely
125. Sault Ste. Marie LPC likely
126. Halifax LPC likely
127. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC likely
128. Newmarket–Aurora LPC likely
129. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC likely
130. York Centre LPC likely
131. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely
132. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely
133. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC likely
134. Compton–Stanstead LPC leaning
135. Northwest Territories LPC leaning
136. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC leaning
137. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning
138. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning
139. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning
140. Toronto–Danforth LPC leaning
141. King–Vaughan LPC leaning
142. Sudbury LPC leaning
143. Kitchener–Conestoga LPC leaning
144. Sherbrooke LPC leaning
145. Richmond Hill LPC leaning
146. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning
147. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning
148. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning
149. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning
150. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning
151. Hochelaga LPC leaning
152. West Nova LPC leaning
153. Québec LPC leaning
154. Niagara Centre LPC leaning
155. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill LPC leaning
156. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up
157. Yukon Toss up
158. Niagara Falls Toss up
159. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up
160. Davenport Toss up
161. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up
162. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up
163. Nickel Belt Toss up
164. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up
165. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up
166. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up
167. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up
168. Shefford Toss up
169. Vancouver Granville Toss up
170. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up
171. La Prairie Toss up
172. Steveston–Richmond East Toss up
173. Fredericton Toss up
174. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up
175. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Toss up
176. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up
177. Kelowna–Lake Country Toss up
178. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up
179. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up
180. Kenora Toss up
181. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte Toss up
182. Montarville Toss up
183. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Toss up
184. Regina–Wascana Toss up
185. Trois-Rivières Toss up
186. Dufferin–Caledon Toss up
187. Markham–Unionville Toss up
188. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ leaning
189. Richmond Centre CPC leaning
190. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning
191. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning
192. Carleton CPC leaning
193. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning
194. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up
195. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC leaning
196. Simcoe–Grey CPC leaning
197. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning
198. Nunavut NDP leaning
199. Fundy Royal CPC leaning
200. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning
201. Simcoe North CPC leaning
202. Langley–Aldergrove CPC leaning
203. Niagara West CPC leaning
204. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning
205. Durham CPC leaning
206. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning
207. Laurentides–Labelle BQ leaning
208. Saint-Jean BQ leaning
209. Windsor West NDP leaning
210. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely
211. Huron–Bruce CPC likely
212. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up
213. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely
214. Calgary Centre CPC likely
215. Edmonton Manning CPC likely
216. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely
217. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ likely
218. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
219. La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ likely
220. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely
221. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely
222. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely
223. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
224. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely
225. Thornhill CPC likely
226. Oshawa Toss up
227. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC likely
228. Terrebonne BQ likely
229. St. John's East NDP likely
230. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC likely
231. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ likely
232. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely
233. Perth–Wellington CPC likely
234. Victoria NDP likely
235. York–Simcoe CPC likely
236. Burnaby South NDP likely
237. Edmonton West CPC likely
238. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ likely
239. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely
240. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ likely
241. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ likely
242. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC likely
243. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely



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