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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: March 23, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection38.7% ± 4.5%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection178 [150-203]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 23, 2025 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 6.8 seat/% 178 [150-203] 39% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ LPC 178 [150-203] March 23, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 7/7 PEI 4/4 NS 9/11 NB 7/10 QC 39/78 ON 78/122 MB 7/14 SK 1/14 AB 5/37 BC 19/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | March 23, 2025

29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 32.6% Min. 34.2% ▼ 38.7% ± 4.5% ▼ Max. 43.1% ▼ Probabilities % LPC March 23, 2025

Seat projection | March 23, 2025

115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 150 ▼ 2021 160 seats Majority 172 seats 178 ▼ Max. 203 ▼ Probabilities % LPC March 23, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
2. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
3. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
4. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
5. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
6. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe >99%
7. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
8. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
9. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
10. Markham—Thornhill LPC safe >99%
11. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
12. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
13. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
14. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
15. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
16. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
17. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
18. Surrey Newton LPC safe >99%
19. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
20. Brampton West LPC safe >99%
21. Mount Royal LPC safe >99%
22. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
23. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
24. Etobicoke North LPC safe >99%
25. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
26. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC safe >99%
27. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
28. Mississauga Centre LPC safe >99%
29. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC safe >99%
30. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
31. Orléans LPC safe >99%
32. Ajax LPC safe >99%
33. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
34. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC safe >99%
35. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
36. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
37. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
38. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
39. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
40. Davenport LPC safe >99%
41. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
42. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
43. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
44. Halifax LPC safe >99%
45. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
46. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
47. Papineau LPC safe >99%
48. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
49. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC safe >99%
50. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
51. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
52. Outremont LPC safe >99%
53. Vimy LPC safe >99%
54. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
55. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
56. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
57. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
58. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
59. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
60. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
61. Laval—Les Îles LPC safe >99%
62. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
63. Brampton South LPC safe >99%
64. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
65. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
66. Guelph LPC safe >99%
67. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
68. Avalon LPC safe >99%
69. Brampton East LPC safe >99%
70. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
71. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC safe >99%
72. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
73. Surrey Centre LPC safe >99%
74. Mississauga—Malton LPC safe >99%
75. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
76. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
77. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
78. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
79. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC safe >99%
80. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC safe >99%
81. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC safe >99%
82. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
83. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
84. Cardigan LPC safe >99%
85. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
86. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
87. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC safe >99%
88. Central Nova LPC likely >99%
89. Brampton North—Caledon LPC likely >99%
90. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely >99%
91. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely >99%
92. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC likely >99%
93. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC likely >99%
94. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC likely >99%
95. Brampton Centre LPC likely >99%
96. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely >99%
97. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC likely >99%
98. Markham—Stouffville LPC likely >99%
99. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely >99%
100. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC likely >99%
101. Québec Centre LPC likely >99%
102. Charlottetown LPC likely >99%
103. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely >99%
104. Egmont LPC likely >99%
105. Compton—Stanstead LPC likely 99%
106. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
107. Don Valley North LPC likely 99%
108. London Centre LPC likely 99%
109. Nepean LPC likely 99%
110. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC likely 99%
111. Burnaby Central LPC likely 99%
112. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 99%
113. Calgary McKnight LPC likely 98%
114. Whitby LPC likely 98%
115. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC likely 98%
116. Delta LPC likely 98%
117. Hamilton Mountain LPC likely 98%
118. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC likely 98%
119. Labrador LPC likely 98%
120. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC likely 98%
121. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LPC likely 98%
122. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC likely 98%
123. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC likely 97%
124. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC likely 97%
125. Richmond East—Steveston LPC likely 97%
126. Winnipeg West LPC likely 97%
127. Louis-Hébert LPC likely 97%
128. Malpeque LPC likely 97%
129. Sudbury LPC likely 97%
130. Brome—Missisquoi LPC likely 97%
131. Vancouver Kingsway LPC likely 96%
132. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 95%
133. Victoria LPC likely 95%
134. Richmond Hill South LPC likely 95%
135. Oakville West LPC likely 95%
136. Long Range Mountains LPC likely 95%
137. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 95%
138. Willowdale LPC likely 94%
139. Burlington LPC likely 93%
140. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC likely 92%
141. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC likely 92%
142. St. Catharines LPC likely 92%
143. Newmarket—Aurora LPC likely 90%
144. Central Newfoundland LPC leaning 89%
145. Oakville East LPC leaning 89%
146. Yukon LPC leaning 85%
147. Richmond Centre—Marpole LPC leaning 85%
148. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore LPC leaning 84%
149. Vaughan—Woodbridge LPC leaning 83%
150. Edmonton Southeast LPC leaning 83%
151. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC leaning 81%
152. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 81%
153. Kanata LPC leaning 81%
154. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 81%
155. Cambridge LPC leaning 81%
156. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt LPC leaning 81%
157. London West LPC leaning 81%
158. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 80%
159. Eglinton—Lawrence LPC leaning 80%
160. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj LPC leaning 80%
161. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC leaning 79%
162. Markham—Unionville LPC leaning 79%
163. York Centre LPC leaning 77%
164. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill LPC leaning 77%
165. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville LPC leaning 75%
166. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert LPC leaning 72%
167. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC leaning 71%
168. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
169. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
170. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
171. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
172. Winnipeg Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 64%
173. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
174. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
175. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
176. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 54%
177. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie Toss up LPC/BQ 54%
178. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ 53%
179. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 48%
180. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
181. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
182. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles Toss up LPC/BQ 42%
183. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
184. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
185. Edmonton Gateway Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
186. Cumberland—Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
187. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
188. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
189. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
190. Edmonton West CPC leaning 30%
191. Niagara South CPC leaning 28%
192. Hamilton Centre NDP leaning 28%
193. Windsor West NDP leaning 28%
194. Saanich—Gulf Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC 22%
195. Edmonton Northwest CPC leaning 20%
196. Vancouver East NDP leaning 20%
197. La Prairie—Atateken BQ leaning 19%
198. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 19%
199. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 17%
200. King—Vaughan CPC leaning 17%
201. London—Fanshawe NDP leaning 15%
202. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC leaning 15%
203. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning 14%
204. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 13%
205. Peterborough CPC likely 9%
206. Fundy Royal CPC likely 9%
207. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning 9%
208. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ leaning 9%
209. Terrebonne BQ likely 8%
210. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 8%
211. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ likely 7%
212. Bay of Quinte CPC likely 7%
213. Repentigny BQ likely 5%
214. Kitchener Centre GPC likely 5%
215. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 5%
216. Kelowna CPC likely 4%
217. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 3%
218. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 3%
219. Saint-Jean BQ likely 3%
220. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 3%
221. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely 3%
222. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 3%
223. Calgary East CPC likely 2%
224. Northumberland—Clarke CPC likely 2%
225. Beauport—Limoilou CPC leaning 2%
226. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ likely 2%
227. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely 1%
228. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC likely 1%
229. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC likely 1%
230. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 1%
231. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ likely 1%
232. Niagara West CPC likely 1%