Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: July 12, 2026

Leader	Mark Carney
National popular vote in 2025	43.8%
Current vote projection	44.5% ± 3.8%
Current number of MPs	172
Current seat projection	208 [177-244]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | July 12, 2026

Seat projection | July 12, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada

	Districts and MPs	Current party	Projection
1.	Orléans Marie-France Lalonde	L	LPC safe
2.	Lac-Saint-Louis Francis Scarpaleggia	L	LPC safe
3.	Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Gary Anandasangaree	L	LPC safe
4.	Acadie—Bathurst Serge Cormier	L	LPC safe
5.	Winnipeg South Centre Ben Carr	L	LPC safe
6.	Vancouver Quadra Wade Grant	L	LPC safe
7.	Don Valley West Rob Oliphant	L	LPC safe
8.	Scarborough North Shaun Chen	L	LPC safe
9.	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel Patricia Lattanzio	L	LPC safe
10.	Nepean Mark Carney	L	LPC safe
11.	Cape Spear Tom Osborne	L	LPC safe
12.	Vancouver Granville Taleeb Noormohamed	L	LPC safe
13.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Leslie Church	L	LPC safe
14.	Beaches—East York Vacant		LPC safe
15.	Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Mona Fortier	L	LPC safe
16.	Ottawa South David McGuinty	L	LPC safe
17.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Darren Fisher	L	LPC safe
18.	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Anna Gainey	L	LPC safe
19.	Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs Marc Miller	L	LPC safe
20.	Brossard—Saint-Lambert Alexandra Mendes	L	LPC safe
21.	Toronto—Danforth Julie Dabrusin	L	LPC safe
22.	St. Boniface—St. Vital Ginette Lavack	L	LPC safe
23.	Winnipeg South Terry Duguid	L	LPC safe
24.	Hull—Aylmer Greg Fergus	L	LPC safe
25.	Halifax West Lena Metlege Diab	L	LPC safe
26.	Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	L	LPC safe
27.	Gatineau Steven MacKinnon	L	LPC safe
28.	Charlottetown Sean Casey	L	LPC safe
29.	Scarborough—Woburn Michael Coteau	L	LPC safe
30.	Ahuntsic-Cartierville Melanie Joly	L	LPC safe
31.	Moncton—Dieppe Ginette Petitpas Taylor	L	LPC safe
32.	Kingston and the Islands Mark Gerretsen	L	LPC safe
33.	North Vancouver—Capilano Vacant		LPC safe
34.	Pierrefonds—Dollard Sameer Zuberi	L	LPC safe
35.	Burnaby North—Seymour Terry Beech	L	LPC safe
36.	Kanata Jenna Sudds	L	LPC safe
37.	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country Patrick Weiler	L	LPC safe
38.	Fredericton—Oromocto David Myles	L	LPC safe
39.	Honoré-Mercier Eric St-Pierre	L	LPC safe
40.	Toronto Centre Evan Solomon	L	LPC safe
41.	Winnipeg North Kevin Lamoureux	L	LPC safe
42.	Sackville—Bedford—Preston Braedon Clark	L	LPC safe
43.	University—Rosedale Danielle Martin	L	LPC safe
44.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore James Maloney	L	LPC safe
45.	Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Salma Zahid	L	LPC safe
46.	Ottawa West—Nepean Anita Vandenbeld	L	LPC safe
47.	Beauséjour Dominic LeBlanc	L	LPC safe
48.	Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle Anju Dhillon	L	LPC safe
49.	Bourassa Abdelhaq Sari	L	LPC safe
50.	Kings—Hants Kody Blois	L	LPC safe
51.	Saint-Laurent Emmanuella Lambropoulos	L	LPC safe
52.	Spadina—Harbourfront Chi Nguyen	L	LPC safe
53.	Vaudreuil Peter Schiefke	L	LPC safe
54.	Waterloo Bardish Chagger	L	LPC safe
55.	Victoria Will Greaves	L	LPC safe
56.	Winnipeg West Doug Eyolfson	L	LPC safe
57.	Vancouver Centre Hedy Fry	L	LPC safe
58.	St. John’s East Joanne Thompson	L	LPC safe
59.	York South—Weston—Etobicoke Ahmed Hussen	L	LPC safe
60.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Iqra Khalid	L	LPC safe
61.	Louis-Hébert Joel Lightbound	L	LPC safe
62.	Humber River—Black Creek Judy Sgro	L	LPC safe
63.	Ajax Jennifer McKelvie	L	LPC safe
64.	Alfred-Pellan Angelo Iacono	L	LPC safe
65.	Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Giovanna Mingarelli	L	LPC safe
66.	London West Arielle Kayabaga	L	LPC safe
67.	Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Sophie Chatel	L	LPC safe
68.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas JP Danko	L	LPC safe
69.	Vimy Annie Koutrakis	L	LPC safe
70.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Gregor Robertson	L	LPC safe
71.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Patty Hajdu	L	LPC safe
72.	Papineau Marjorie Michel	L	LPC safe
73.	London Centre Peter Fragiskatos	L	LPC safe
74.	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Carlos Leitao	L	LPC safe
75.	Outremont Rachel Bendayan	L	LPC safe
76.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Stephanie McLean	L	LPC safe
77.	Sherbrooke Elisabeth Briere	L	LPC safe
78.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie Steven Guilbeault	L	LPC safe
79.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Claude Guay	L	LPC safe
80.	Guelph Dominique O’Rourke	L	LPC safe
81.	Saint-Maurice—Champlain Francois-Philippe Champagne	L	LPC safe
82.	Laval—Les Îles Faycal El-Khoury	L	LPC safe
83.	Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Sherry Romanado	L	LPC safe
84.	Brome—Missisquoi Louis Villeneuve	L	LPC safe
85.	Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Stephane Lauzon	L	LPC safe
86.	Compton—Stanstead Marianne Dandurand	L	LPC safe
87.	Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Marie-Gabrielle Menard	L	LPC safe
88.	Avalon Paul Connors	L	LPC safe
89.	Etobicoke Centre Yvan Baker	L	LPC safe
90.	Burlington Karina Gould	L	LPC safe
91.	Halifax Shannon Miedema	L	LPC safe
92.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Buckley Belanger	L	LPC safe
93.	Scarborough—Agincourt Jean Yip	L	LPC safe
94.	Peterborough Emma Harrison	L	LPC safe
95.	St. Catharines Chris Bittle	L	LPC safe
96.	Saint John—Kennebecasis Wayne Long	L	LPC safe
97.	Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville Nathalie Provost	L	LPC safe
98.	Pickering—Brooklin Juanita Nathan	L	LPC safe
99.	Etobicoke North John Zerucelli	L	LPC safe
100.	Davenport Julie Dzerowicz	L	LPC safe
101.	Don Valley North Maggie Chi	L	LPC safe
102.	Sydney—Glace Bay Mike Kelloway	L	LPC safe
103.	Malpeque Heath MacDonald	L	LPC safe
104.	Willowdale Ali Ehsassi	L	LPC safe
105.	Sudbury Viviane Lapointe	L	LPC safe
106.	Edmonton Centre Eleanor Olszewski	L	LPC safe
107.	Ottawa Centre Yasir Naqvi	L	LPC safe
108.	Markham—Thornhill Tim Hodgson	L	LPC safe
109.	South Shore—St. Margarets Jessica Fancy-Landry	L	LPC safe
110.	Mississauga Centre Fares Al Soud	L	LPC safe
111.	Madawaska—Restigouche Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault	L	LPC safe
112.	Trois-Rivières Caroline Desrochers	L	LPC safe
113.	Mississauga—Malton Iqwinder Gaheer	L	LPC safe
114.	Thérèse-De Blainville Madeleine Chenette	L	LPC safe
115.	Yukon Brendan Hanley	L	LPC likely
116.	Delta Jill McKnight	L	LPC likely
117.	Whitby Ryan Turnbull	L	LPC likely
118.	Burlington North—Milton West Adam van Koeverden	L	LPC likely
119.	Cardigan Kent McDonald	L	LPC likely
120.	Northwest Territories Rebecca Alty	L	LPC likely
121.	Mount Royal Anthony Housefather	L	LPC likely
122.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa	L	LPC likely
123.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba	L	LPC likely
124.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles Linda Lapointe	L	LPC likely
125.	Oakville West Sima Acan	L	LPC likely
126.	Québec Centre Jean-Yves Duclos	L	LPC likely
127.	Burnaby Central Wade Wei Lin Chang	L	LPC likely
128.	Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez	L	LPC likely
129.	Carleton Bruce Fanjoy	L	LPC likely
130.	Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner	L	LPC likely
131.	Oakville East Anita Anand	L	LPC likely
132.	Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek	L	LPC likely
133.	Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro	L	LPC likely
134.	Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette	L	LPC likely
135.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca	L	LPC likely
136.	Central Nova Sean Fraser	L	LPC likely
137.	Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Ron McKinnon	L	LPC likely
138.	Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski	L	LPC likely
139.	South Surrey—White Rock Ernie Klassen	L	LPC likely
140.	Surrey Newton Sukh Dhaliwal	L	LPC likely
141.	Port Moody—Coquitlam Zoe Royer	L	LPC likely
142.	Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish Jaime Battiste	L	LPC likely
143.	Surrey Centre Randeep Sarai	L	LPC likely
144.	Calgary Confederation Corey Hogan	L	LPC likely
145.	Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan	L	LPC likely
146.	Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali	L	LPC likely
147.	Fleetwood—Port Kells Gurbux Saini	L	LPC likely
148.	Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort	L	LPC likely
149.	Brampton East Maninder Sidhu	L	LPC likely
150.	La Prairie—Atateken Jacques Ramsay	L	LPC likely
151.	Beauport—Limoilou Steeve Lavoie	L	LPC likely
152.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Mandy Gull	L	LPC likely
153.	Egmont Bobby Morrissey	L	LPC likely
154.	Richmond East—Steveston Parm Bains	L	LPC likely
155.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Karim Bardeesy	L	LPC likely
156.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli	C	LPC likely
157.	Kelowna Stephen Fuhr	L	LPC likely
158.	Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis	L	LPC likely
159.	Brampton South Sonia Sidhu	L	LPC likely
160.	Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota	L	LPC likely
161.	Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen	L	LPC likely
162.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut Timothy Watchorn	L	LPC likely
163.	Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi	L	LPC likely
164.	Labrador Philip Earle	L	LPC likely
165.	Acadie—Annapolis Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]	L	LPC likely
166.	Cumberland—Colchester Alana Hirtle	L	LPC likely
167.	Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Marc Dalton	C	LPC leaning
168.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss	C	LPC leaning
169.	Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]	L	LPC leaning
170.	Calgary McKnight Dalwinder Gill	C	LPC leaning
171.	Cloverdale—Langley City Tamara Jansen	C	LPC leaning
172.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Rebecca Chartrand	L	LPC leaning
173.	Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence	C	LPC leaning
174.	Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena	C	LPC leaning
175.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Jake Sawatzky	L	LPC leaning
176.	Niagara South Fred Davies	C	LPC leaning
177.	Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Jonathan Rowe	C	LPC leaning
178.	Edmonton Riverbend Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]	L	LPC leaning
179.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Natilien Joseph	L	LPC leaning
180.	Miramichi—Grand Lake Mike Dawson	C	LPC leaning
181.	Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Helena Konanz	C	LPC leaning
182.	Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli	C	LPC leaning
183.	Edmonton West Kelly McCauley	C	LPC leaning
184.	Richmond Centre—Marpole Chak Au	C	LPC leaning
185.	Brampton West Amarjeet Gill	C	LPC leaning
186.	Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett	C	LPC leaning
187.	Simcoe North Adam Chambers	C	LPC leaning
188.	Cambridge Connie Cody	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
189.	Calgary Centre Greg McLean	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
190.	Kildonan—St. Paul Raquel Dancho	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
191.	Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
192.	Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
193.	Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
194.	York Centre Roman Baber	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
195.	Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Dan Albas	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
196.	Terrebonne Tatiana Auguste	L	Toss up LPC/BQ
197.	Nanaimo—Ladysmith Tamara Kronis	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
198.	Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Scott Anderson	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
199.	Shefford Andreanne Larouche	B	Toss up LPC/BQ
200.	Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
201.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
202.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
203.	Niagara West Dean Allison	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
204.	Nunavut Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]	L	Toss up LPC/NDP
205.	Langley Township—Fraser Heights Tako van Popta	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
206.	Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana	L	Toss up LPC/NDP
207.	Regina—Lewvan Warren Steinley	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
208.	Edmonton Southeast Jagsharan Singh Mahal	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
209.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
210.	Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
211.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
212.	Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
213.	Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
214.	Regina—Wascana Michael Kram	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
215.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
216.	La Pointe-de-l’Île Mario Beaulieu	B	Toss up LPC/BQ
217.	Saskatoon—University Corey Tochor	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
218.	Long Range Mountains Carol Anstey	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
219.	Abbotsford—South Langley Sukhman Singh Gill	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
220.	Repentigny Patrick Bonin	B	Toss up LPC/BQ
221.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Jeff Kibble	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
222.	Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
223.	Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
224.	Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
225.	Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
226.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
227.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Vacant		Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
228.	Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Frank Caputo	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
229.	Perth—Wellington John Nater	C	Toss up LPC/CPC
230.	Vancouver Kingsway Don Davies	N	Toss up LPC/NDP
231.	Edmonton Manning Ziad Aboultaif	C	CPC leaning
232.	Vancouver East Jenny Kwan	N	NDP leaning
233.	Calgary Skyview Amanpreet Singh Gill	C	CPC leaning
234.	Mirabel Jean-Denis Garon	B	BQ leaning
235.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj Alexis Deschenes	B	BQ leaning
236.	Edmonton Northwest Billy Morin	C	CPC leaning
237.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Xavier Barsalou-Duval	B	BQ leaning
238.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff	C	CPC leaning
239.	Edmonton Gateway Tim Uppal	C	CPC leaning
240.	Saskatoon South Kevin Waugh	C	CPC leaning
241.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman	C	CPC leaning
242.	Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Mel Arnold	C	CPC leaning
243.	Central Newfoundland Clifford Small	C	CPC leaning
244.	Calgary Crowfoot Shuv Majumdar	C	CPC leaning
245.	North Island—Powell River Aaron Gunn	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
246.	Middlesex—London Lianne Rood	C	CPC leaning
247.	Saint John—St. Croix John Williamson	C	CPC leaning
248.	Fundy Royal Rob Moore	C	CPC leaning
249.	Richmond—Arthabaska Éric Lefebvre	C	CPC leaning
250.	Oxford Arpan Khanna	C	CPC leaning
251.	Laurentides—Labelle Marie-Helene Gaudreau	B	BQ leaning
252.	Rimouski—La Matapédia Maxime Blanchette-Joncas	B	BQ leaning
253.	Saint-Jean Christine Normandin	B	BQ leaning
254.	Winnipeg Centre Leah Gazan	N	NDP leaning
255.	York—Durham Jacob Mantle	C	CPC leaning
256.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton Vacant		BQ leaning
257.	Calgary Nose Hill Michelle Rempel Garner	C	CPC leaning
258.	Berthier—Maskinongé Yves Perron	B	BQ leaning
259.	Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan	C	CPC leaning
260.	Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu	L	CPC leaning
261.	Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder	C	GPC leaning
262.	Windsor West Harbinder Gill	C	NDP leaning
263.	Calgary Signal Hill David McKenzie	C	CPC leaning
264.	London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman	C	NDP leaning
265.	Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant	C	CPC likely
266.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale	C	CPC likely
267.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon Claude DeBellefeuille	B	BQ likely
268.	Rivière-du-Nord Rheal Fortin	B	BQ likely
269.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie Alexandre Boulerice	I	NDP likely
270.	Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Pierre Paul-Hus	C	CPC likely
271.	Montmorency—Charlevoix Gabriel Hardy	C	Toss up CPC/BQ
272.	Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Gérard Deltell	C	CPC likely
273.	Beloeil—Chambly Yves-Francois Blanchet	B	BQ likely
274.	Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard	C	CPC likely
275.	Calgary Heritage Shuv Majumdar	C	CPC likely
276.	Chilliwack—Hope Mark Strahl	C	CPC likely
277.	Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Brad Vis	C	CPC likely
278.	Drummond Martin Champoux	B	BQ likely
279.	Courtenay—Alberni Gord Johns	N	NDP likely
280.	Essex Chris Lewis	C	CPC likely
281.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin	C	CPC likely
282.	Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis	C	CPC likely
283.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp	C	CPC likely
284.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan Marilene Gill	B	BQ likely
285.	Calgary East Jasraj Singh Hallan	C	CPC likely
286.	Jonquière Mario Simard	B	BQ likely
287.	New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson	C	CPC likely
288.	Tobique—Mactaquac Richard Bragdon	C	CPC likely
289.	Joliette—Manawan Gabriel Ste-Marie	B	BQ likely
290.	Saanich—Gulf Islands Elizabeth May	G	GPC likely
291.	Lethbridge Rachael Thomas	C	CPC likely
292.	Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata Bernard Genereux	C	CPC likely
293.	Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies Rob Morrison	C	CPC likely
294.	King—Vaughan Anna Roberts	C	CPC likely
295.	Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback	C	CPC likely
296.	Saskatoon West Brad Redekopp	C	CPC likely
297.	Lévis—Lotbinière Jacques Gourde	C	CPC likely
298.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak Louis Plamondon	B	BQ likely
299.	Montcalm Luc Theriault	B	BQ likely
300.	Lac-Saint-Jean Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe	B	BQ likely
301.	Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman James Bezan	C	CPC safe
302.	Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Dominique Vien	C	CPC safe
303.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue Sebastien Lemire	B	BQ safe
304.	Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Joel Godin	C	CPC safe
305.	Calgary Midnapore Stephanie Kusie	C	CPC safe
306.	St. Albert—Sturgeon River Michael Cooper	C	CPC safe
307.	Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Garnett Genuis	C	CPC safe
308.	Elmwood—Transcona Colin Reynolds	C	Toss up CPC/NDP

Liberal Party of Canada

Infolettre Qc125

Vote projection | July 12, 2026

Seat projection | July 12, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada