Liberal Party of Canada
Latest update: April 21, 2024
Leader | Justin Trudeau |
National popular vote in 2021 | 32.6% |
Current vote projection | 25.5% ± 3.3% |
Current number of MP's | 157 |
Current seat projection | 74 [51-102] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024
Seat projection | April 21, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
2. | Acadie—Bathurst | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
3. | Scarborough North | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
4. | Bourassa | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
5. | Saint-Laurent | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
6. | Honoré-Mercier | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
7. | Hull—Aylmer | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
8. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
9. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
10. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
11. | Lac-Saint-Louis | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
12. | Beaches—East York | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
13. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
14. | Vimy | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
15. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
16. | Mount Royal | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
17. | Humber River—Black Creek | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
18. | Surrey Newton | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
19. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
20. | Laval—Les-Îles | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
21. | Winnipeg North | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
22. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
23. | Scarborough Southwest | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
24. | Beauséjour | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
25. | Papineau | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
26. | Scarborough—Woburn | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
27. | Vaudreuil | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
28. | Alfred-Pellan | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
29. | Toronto Centre | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
30. | Gatineau | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
31. | Cape Spear | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
32. | York South—Weston—Etobicoke | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
33. | Outremont | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
34. | Markham—Thornhill | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
35. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | LPC likely hold | 98% | ||
36. | Winnipeg South Centre | LPC likely hold | 98% | ||
37. | Etobicoke North | LPC likely hold | 98% | ||
38. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | LPC likely hold | 97% | ||
39. | St. Boniface—St. Vital | LPC likely hold | 97% | ||
40. | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East | LPC likely hold | 96% | ||
41. | University—Rosedale | LPC likely hold | 95% | ||
42. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | LPC likely hold | 95% | ||
43. | Winnipeg South | LPC likely hold | 94% | ||
44. | Moncton—Dieppe | LPC likely hold | 92% | ||
45. | Ajax | LPC likely hold | 91% | ||
46. | Surrey Centre | LPC leaning hold | 90% | ||
47. | Halifax West | LPC leaning hold | 90% | ||
48. | Brampton West | LPC leaning hold | 89% | ||
49. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | LPC leaning hold | 88% | ||
50. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | LPC leaning hold | 85% | ||
51. | Scarborough—Agincourt | LPC leaning hold | 85% | ||
52. | Don Valley West | LPC leaning hold | 84% | ||
53. | Mississauga Centre | LPC leaning hold | 79% | ||
54. | Orléans | LPC leaning hold | 77% | ||
55. | Brampton East | LPC leaning hold | 77% | ||
56. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | LPC leaning hold | 75% | ||
57. | Brampton South | LPC leaning hold | 75% | ||
58. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | LPC leaning hold | 75% | ||
59. | Ottawa South | LPC leaning hold | 75% | ||
60. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | LPC leaning hold | 74% | ||
61. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | LPC leaning hold | 71% | ||
62. | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby | LPC leaning hold | 71% | ||
63. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP | 69% | ||
64. | Madawaska—Restigouche | Toss up LPC/CPC | 68% | ||
65. | Vancouver Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC | 63% | ||
66. | Calgary McKnight | Toss up LPC/CPC | 62% | ||
67. | St. John’s East | Toss up LPC/NDP | 61% | ||
68. | Mississauga—Malton | Toss up LPC/CPC | 61% | ||
69. | Toronto—Danforth | Toss up LPC/NDP | 59% | ||
70. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP | 55% | ||
71. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | Toss up LPC/CPC | 54% | ||
72. | Guelph | Toss up LPC/CPC | 54% | ||
73. | Don Valley North | Toss up LPC/CPC | 50% | ||
74. | Northwest Territories | Toss up LPC/NDP | 50% | ||
75. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | Toss up LPC/CPC | 49% | ||
76. | Waterloo | Toss up LPC/CPC | 47% | ||
77. | Ottawa West—Nepean | Toss up LPC/CPC | 45% | ||
78. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | Toss up LPC/CPC | 42% | ||
79. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Toss up LPC/CPC | 41% | ||
80. | Brampton North—Caledon | Toss up LPC/CPC | 39% | ||
81. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 36% | ||
82. | Cardigan | Toss up LPC/CPC | 36% | ||
83. | Davenport | Toss up LPC/NDP | 35% | ||
84. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | Toss up LPC/CPC | 34% | ||
85. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | Toss up LPC/BQ | 34% | ||
86. | Brampton Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC | 33% | ||
87. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | Toss up LPC/CPC | 32% | ||
88. | Louis-Hébert | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 29% | ||
89. | Markham—Stouffville | CPC leaning gain | 29% | ||
90. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | CPC leaning gain | 26% | ||
91. | Québec Centre | BQ leaning gain | 25% | ||
92. | Sherbrooke | BQ leaning gain | 23% | ||
93. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | BQ leaning gain | 22% | ||
94. | Charlottetown | CPC leaning gain | 22% | ||
95. | Avalon | CPC leaning gain | 22% | ||
96. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | CPC leaning gain | 21% | ||
97. | Burnaby North—Seymour | CPC leaning gain | 21% | ||
98. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 21% | ||
99. | Egmont | CPC leaning gain | 20% | ||
100. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | CPC leaning gain | 20% | ||
101. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | NDP leaning gain | 18% | ||
102. | North Vancouver—Capilano | CPC leaning gain | 18% | ||
103. | Willowdale | CPC leaning gain | 17% | ||
104. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain | 17% | ||
105. | Pickering—Brooklin | CPC leaning gain | 16% | ||
106. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain | 16% | ||
107. | Vancouver Quadra | CPC leaning gain | 15% | ||
108. | Etobicoke Centre | CPC leaning gain | 15% | ||
109. | London Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 13% | ||
110. | Mississauga—Streetsville | CPC leaning gain | 13% | ||
111. | Kings—Hants | CPC leaning gain | 13% | ||
112. | Spadina—Harbourfront | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 12% | ||
113. | Nepean | CPC leaning gain | 11% | ||
114. | Compton—Stanstead | BQ leaning gain | 11% | ||
115. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | BQ leaning gain | 11% | ||
116. | Winnipeg West | CPC leaning hold | 10% | ||
117. | Whitby | CPC likely gain | 7% | ||
118. | Edmonton Centre | CPC leaning hold | 7% | ||
119. | Burlington North—Milton West | CPC likely gain | 6% | ||
120. | Edmonton Southeast | CPC likely hold | 6% | ||
121. | Eglinton—Lawrence | CPC likely gain | 5% | ||
122. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | CPC likely gain | 5% | ||
123. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | BQ likely hold | 5% | ||
124. | Central Nova | CPC likely gain | 5% | ||
125. | York Centre | CPC likely gain | 4% | ||
126. | Malpeque | CPC likely gain | 4% | ||
127. | Richmond Hill South | CPC likely gain | 4% | ||
128. | Oakville West | CPC likely gain | 4% | ||
129. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | CPC likely gain | 3% | ||
130. | Hamilton Mountain | Toss up CPC/NDP | 3% | ||
131. | Brome—Missisquoi | BQ likely gain | 3% | ||
132. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | BQ likely hold | 2% | ||
133. | Nunavut | NDP likely hold | 2% | ||
134. | Burlington | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
135. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
136. | Delta | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
137. | Burnaby Central | Toss up CPC/NDP | 2% | ||
138. | Sudbury | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
139. | Kanata | CPC likely gain | 1% | ||
140. | Oakville East | CPC likely gain | 1% | ||
141. | Richmond East—Steveston | CPC likely gain | 1% | ||
142. | Sydney—Glace Bay | CPC likely gain | 1% | ||
143. | Markham—Unionville | CPC likely gain | 1% | ||
144. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | CPC likely gain | 1% | ||
145. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | CPC likely gain | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | LPC safe hold |
2. | Acadie—Bathurst | LPC safe hold |
3. | Scarborough North | LPC safe hold |
4. | Bourassa | LPC safe hold |
5. | Saint-Laurent | LPC safe hold |
6. | Honoré-Mercier | LPC safe hold |
7. | Hull—Aylmer | LPC safe hold |
8. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | LPC safe hold |
9. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | LPC safe hold |
10. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | LPC safe hold |
11. | Lac-Saint-Louis | LPC safe hold |
12. | Beaches—East York | LPC safe hold |
13. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | LPC safe hold |
14. | Vimy | LPC safe hold |
15. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | LPC safe hold |
16. | Mount Royal | LPC safe hold |
17. | Humber River—Black Creek | LPC safe hold |
18. | Surrey Newton | LPC safe hold |
19. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | LPC safe hold |
20. | Laval—Les-Îles | LPC safe hold |
21. | Winnipeg North | LPC safe hold |
22. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | LPC safe hold |
23. | Scarborough Southwest | LPC safe hold |
24. | Beauséjour | LPC safe hold |
25. | Papineau | LPC safe hold |
26. | Scarborough—Woburn | LPC safe hold |
27. | Vaudreuil | LPC safe hold |
28. | Alfred-Pellan | LPC safe hold |
29. | Toronto Centre | LPC likely hold |
30. | Gatineau | LPC likely hold |
31. | Cape Spear | LPC likely hold |
32. | York South—Weston—Etobicoke | LPC likely hold |
33. | Outremont | LPC likely hold |
34. | Markham—Thornhill | LPC likely hold |
35. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | LPC likely hold |
36. | Winnipeg South Centre | LPC likely hold |
37. | Etobicoke North | LPC likely hold |
38. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | LPC likely hold |
39. | St. Boniface—St. Vital | LPC likely hold |
40. | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East | LPC likely hold |
41. | University—Rosedale | LPC likely hold |
42. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | LPC likely hold |
43. | Winnipeg South | LPC likely hold |
44. | Moncton—Dieppe | LPC likely hold |
45. | Ajax | LPC likely hold |
46. | Surrey Centre | LPC leaning hold |
47. | Halifax West | LPC leaning hold |
48. | Brampton West | LPC leaning hold |
49. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | LPC leaning hold |
50. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | LPC leaning hold |
51. | Scarborough—Agincourt | LPC leaning hold |
52. | Don Valley West | LPC leaning hold |
53. | Mississauga Centre | LPC leaning hold |
54. | Orléans | LPC leaning hold |
55. | Brampton East | LPC leaning hold |
56. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | LPC leaning hold |
57. | Brampton South | LPC leaning hold |
58. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | LPC leaning hold |
59. | Ottawa South | LPC leaning hold |
60. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | LPC leaning hold |
61. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | LPC leaning hold |
62. | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby | LPC leaning hold |
63. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP |
64. | Madawaska—Restigouche | Toss up LPC/CPC |
65. | Vancouver Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC |
66. | Calgary McKnight | Toss up LPC/CPC |
67. | St. John’s East | Toss up LPC/NDP |
68. | Mississauga—Malton | Toss up LPC/CPC |
69. | Toronto—Danforth | Toss up LPC/NDP |
70. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP |
71. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | Toss up LPC/CPC |
72. | Guelph | Toss up LPC/CPC |
73. | Don Valley North | Toss up LPC/CPC |
74. | Northwest Territories | Toss up LPC/NDP |
75. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | Toss up LPC/CPC |
76. | Waterloo | Toss up LPC/CPC |
77. | Ottawa West—Nepean | Toss up LPC/CPC |
78. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | Toss up LPC/CPC |
79. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Toss up LPC/CPC |
80. | Brampton North—Caledon | Toss up LPC/CPC |
81. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
82. | Cardigan | Toss up LPC/CPC |
83. | Davenport | Toss up LPC/NDP |
84. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | Toss up LPC/CPC |
85. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | Toss up LPC/BQ |
86. | Brampton Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC |
87. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | Toss up LPC/CPC |
88. | Louis-Hébert | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ |
89. | Markham—Stouffville | CPC leaning gain |
90. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | CPC leaning gain |
91. | Québec Centre | BQ leaning gain |
92. | Sherbrooke | BQ leaning gain |
93. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | BQ leaning gain |
94. | Charlottetown | CPC leaning gain |
95. | Avalon | CPC leaning gain |
96. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | CPC leaning gain |
97. | Burnaby North—Seymour | CPC leaning gain |
98. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
99. | Egmont | CPC leaning gain |
100. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | CPC leaning gain |
101. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | NDP leaning gain |
102. | North Vancouver—Capilano | CPC leaning gain |
103. | Willowdale | CPC leaning gain |
104. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain |
105. | Pickering—Brooklin | CPC leaning gain |
106. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain |
107. | Vancouver Quadra | CPC leaning gain |
108. | Etobicoke Centre | CPC leaning gain |
109. | London Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
110. | Mississauga—Streetsville | CPC leaning gain |
111. | Kings—Hants | CPC leaning gain |
112. | Spadina—Harbourfront | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
113. | Nepean | CPC leaning gain |
114. | Compton—Stanstead | BQ leaning gain |
115. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | BQ leaning gain |
116. | Winnipeg West | CPC leaning hold |
117. | Whitby | CPC likely gain |
118. | Edmonton Centre | CPC leaning hold |
119. | Burlington North—Milton West | CPC likely gain |
120. | Edmonton Southeast | CPC likely hold |
121. | Eglinton—Lawrence | CPC likely gain |
122. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | CPC likely gain |
123. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | BQ likely hold |
124. | Central Nova | CPC likely gain |
125. | York Centre | CPC likely gain |
126. | Malpeque | CPC likely gain |
127. | Richmond Hill South | CPC likely gain |
128. | Oakville West | CPC likely gain |
129. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | CPC likely gain |
130. | Hamilton Mountain | Toss up CPC/NDP |
131. | Brome—Missisquoi | BQ likely gain |
132. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | BQ likely hold |
133. | Nunavut | NDP likely hold |
134. | Burlington | CPC likely gain |
135. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | CPC likely gain |
136. | Delta | CPC likely gain |
137. | Burnaby Central | Toss up CPC/NDP |
138. | Sudbury | CPC likely gain |
139. | Kanata | CPC likely gain |
140. | Oakville East | CPC likely gain |
141. | Richmond East—Steveston | CPC likely gain |
142. | Sydney—Glace Bay | CPC likely gain |
143. | Markham—Unionville | CPC likely gain |
144. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | CPC likely gain |
145. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | CPC likely gain |