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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: November 2, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection42.4% ± 3.8%
Current number of MPs170
Current seat projection170 [137-203]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 2, 2025 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.4 seat/% 170 [137-203] 42% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × ✓ ✓ LPC 170 [137-203] November 2, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 42/78 ON 68/122 MB 6/14 SK 1/14 AB 2/37 BC 22/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | November 2, 2025

34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 38.7% ▼ 42.4% ± 3.8% ▼ 2025 43.8% Max. 46.2% ▼ Probabilities % LPC November 2, 2025

Seat projection | November 2, 2025

95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 137 ▼ 2021 169 seats 170 ▼ Majority 172 seats Max. 203 ▼ Probabilities % LPC November 2, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
2. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
3. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
4. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
5. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
6. Orléans LPC safe >99%
7. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
8. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
9. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
10. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
11. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
12. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
13. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
14. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
15. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
16. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
17. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
18. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
19. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
20. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
21. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
22. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
23. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
24. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
25. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
26. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
27. Halifax LPC safe >99%
28. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
29. Avalon LPC safe >99%
30. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
31. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
32. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
33. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
34. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
35. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
36. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
37. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
38. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
39. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
40. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
41. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
42. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
43. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
44. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
45. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
46. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
47. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
48. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
49. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
50. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
51. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
52. Victoria LPC safe >99%
53. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
54. London Centre LPC safe >99%
55. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
56. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
57. Vimy LPC safe >99%
58. Outremont LPC safe >99%
59. Guelph LPC safe >99%
60. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
61. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
62. Papineau LPC safe >99%
63. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
64. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
65. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
66. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
67. Nepean LPC safe >99%
68. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
69. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
70. Kanata LPC safe >99%
71. Davenport LPC safe >99%
72. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
73. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC safe >99%
74. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
75. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
76. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
77. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC safe >99%
78. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
79. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe >99%
80. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC safe >99%
81. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC safe >99%
82. Cardigan LPC likely >99%
83. Brome—Missisquoi LPC likely >99%
84. London West LPC likely >99%
85. Compton—Stanstead LPC likely >99%
86. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC likely >99%
87. Laval—Les Îles LPC likely >99%
88. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely >99%
89. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC likely >99%
90. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely >99%
91. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC likely >99%
92. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely >99%
93. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely >99%
94. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC likely >99%
95. Ajax LPC likely >99%
96. Winnipeg West LPC likely 99%
97. Burlington LPC likely 99%
98. Central Nova LPC likely 99%
99. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 99%
100. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC likely 99%
101. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
102. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 99%
103. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 98%
104. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 98%
105. Peterborough LPC likely 98%
106. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 97%
107. Sudbury LPC likely 97%
108. Trois-Rivières LPC likely 97%
109. Yukon LPC likely 96%
110. St. Catharines LPC likely 96%
111. Delta LPC likely 96%
112. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 96%
113. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 96%
114. Egmont LPC likely 96%
115. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 95%
116. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC likely 95%
117. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 94%
118. Etobicoke North LPC likely 94%
119. Mount Royal LPC likely 93%
120. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 93%
121. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC likely 93%
122. Labrador LPC likely 92%
123. Don Valley North LPC likely 92%
124. Québec Centre LPC likely 92%
125. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 91%
126. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC likely 90%
127. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 90%
128. Whitby LPC leaning 89%
129. Willowdale LPC leaning 89%
130. Burlington North—Milton West LPC leaning 88%
131. Oakville West LPC leaning 87%
132. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 87%
133. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 87%
134. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 87%
135. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 86%
136. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 86%
137. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 84%
138. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 82%
139. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 82%
140. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 81%
141. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 81%
142. La Prairie—Atateken LPC leaning 80%
143. Oakville East LPC leaning 79%
144. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 78%
145. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 77%
146. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 77%
147. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 76%
148. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 76%
149. Carleton LPC leaning 75%
150. Richmond East—Steveston LPC leaning 75%
151. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 75%
152. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC leaning 74%
153. Kelowna LPC leaning 74%
154. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 71%
155. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up LPC/BQ 69%
156. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
157. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
158. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
159. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Toss up LPC/BQ 66%
160. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/NDP 66%
161. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
162. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
163. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 58%
164. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
165. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
166. Les Pays-d’en-Haut Toss up LPC/BQ 54%
167. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
168. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
169. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
170. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
171. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
172. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
173. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
174. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
175. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 43%
176. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
177. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
178. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
179. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
180. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
181. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
182. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
183. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
184. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ leaning 29%
185. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 28%
186. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 26%
187. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 26%
188. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 25%
189. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 25%
190. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 25%
191. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 24%
192. Simcoe North CPC leaning 23%
193. Terrebonne BQ leaning 22%
194. Niagara South CPC leaning 21%
195. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 21%
196. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 21%
197. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 21%
198. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 20%
199. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 20%
200. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 20%
201. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 18%
202. Shefford BQ leaning 17%
203. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 17%
204. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 17%
205. Oshawa CPC leaning 16%
206. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 16%
207. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 15%
208. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 14%
209. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 13%
210. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 13%
211. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 12%
212. Edmonton West CPC leaning 12%
213. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 11%
214. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 10%
215. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 10%
216. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely 10%
217. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 10%
218. Nunavut NDP likely 9%
219. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 9%
220. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 9%
221. Vancouver East NDP likely 9%
222. Repentigny BQ likely 8%
223. Edmonton Gateway CPC likely 8%
224. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 7%
225. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely 7%
226. Niagara West CPC likely 6%
227. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 6%
228. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 6%
229. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely 5%
230. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 5%
231. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 5%
232. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 5%
233. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 5%
234. Middlesex—London CPC likely 4%
235. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 4%
236. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 3%
237. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 3%
238. Mirabel BQ likely 3%
239. York Centre CPC likely 3%
240. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 3%
241. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely 2%
242. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ likely 2%
243. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 2%
244. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 2%
245. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 2%
246. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 2%
247. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 2%
248. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 2%
249. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 2%
250. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 2%
251. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 1%