logo
logo
Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: December 21, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection41.4% ± 3.9%
Current number of MPs171
Current seat projection161 [129-197]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 21, 2025 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.3 seat/% 161 [129-197] 41% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × ✓ × × × × × × LPC 161 [129-197] December 21, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 38/78 ON 70/122 MB 7/14 SK 1/14 AB 2/37 BC 14/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | December 21, 2025

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 37.5% ▼ 41.4% ± 3.9% ▼ 2025 43.8% Max. 45.3% ▼ Probabilities % LPC December 21, 2025

Seat projection | December 21, 2025

85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 129 ▼ 161 ▼ 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats Max. 197 ▼ Probabilities % LPC December 21, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
2. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
3. Orléans LPC safe >99%
4. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
5. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
6. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
7. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
8. Nepean LPC safe >99%
9. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
10. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
11. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
12. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
13. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
14. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
15. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
16. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
17. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
18. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
19. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
20. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
21. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
22. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
23. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
24. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
25. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
26. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
27. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
28. Kanata LPC safe >99%
29. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
30. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
31. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
32. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
33. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
34. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
35. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
36. Halifax LPC safe >99%
37. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
38. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
39. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
40. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
41. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
42. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
43. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
44. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
45. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
46. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
47. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
48. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
49. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
50. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
51. London Centre LPC safe >99%
52. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
53. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
54. Davenport LPC safe >99%
55. Guelph LPC safe >99%
56. Vimy LPC safe >99%
57. Outremont LPC safe >99%
58. Papineau LPC safe >99%
59. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
60. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
61. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
62. Victoria LPC safe >99%
63. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
64. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
65. Avalon LPC safe >99%
66. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
67. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
68. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
69. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
70. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC safe >99%
71. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
72. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC safe >99%
73. London West LPC safe >99%
74. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
75. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
76. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC likely >99%
77. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC likely >99%
78. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC likely >99%
79. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely >99%
80. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely >99%
81. Laval—Les Îles LPC likely >99%
82. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely >99%
83. Malpeque LPC likely >99%
84. Ajax LPC likely >99%
85. Sherbrooke LPC likely >99%
86. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC likely >99%
87. Burlington LPC likely >99%
88. Cardigan LPC likely >99%
89. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 99%
90. Winnipeg West LPC likely 99%
91. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely 99%
92. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 99%
93. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 99%
94. Peterborough LPC likely 99%
95. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely 99%
96. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely 99%
97. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 99%
98. Sudbury LPC likely 98%
99. St. Catharines LPC likely 98%
100. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 98%
101. Brome—Missisquoi LPC likely 98%
102. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 97%
103. Compton—Stanstead LPC likely 97%
104. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC likely 97%
105. Northwest Territories LPC likely 97%
106. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC likely 97%
107. Etobicoke North LPC likely 96%
108. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 96%
109. Yukon LPC likely 96%
110. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely 96%
111. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 96%
112. Don Valley North LPC likely 95%
113. Central Nova LPC likely 95%
114. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 94%
115. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 94%
116. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 94%
117. Whitby LPC likely 93%
118. Mount Royal LPC likely 93%
119. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 93%
120. Willowdale LPC likely 93%
121. Oakville West LPC likely 92%
122. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 92%
123. Egmont LPC leaning 89%
124. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC leaning 89%
125. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 87%
126. Oakville East LPC leaning 86%
127. Labrador LPC leaning 86%
128. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 85%
129. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 84%
130. Carleton LPC leaning 84%
131. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 83%
132. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 83%
133. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 82%
134. Trois-Rivières LPC leaning 80%
135. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC leaning 79%
136. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 78%
137. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 77%
138. Brampton East LPC leaning 75%
139. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 75%
140. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC leaning 74%
141. Delta LPC leaning 73%
142. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 71%
143. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 71%
144. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles Toss up LPC/BQ 70%
145. Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ 67%
146. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
147. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
148. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
149. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie Toss up LPC/BQ 63%
150. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
151. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
152. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
153. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
154. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
155. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
156. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
157. Surrey Newton Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
158. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
159. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
160. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
161. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
162. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
163. La Prairie—Atateken Toss up LPC/BQ 47%
164. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
165. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
166. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 46%
167. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Toss up LPC/BQ 44%
168. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
169. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
170. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
171. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up LPC/BQ 38%
172. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
173. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
174. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
175. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
176. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
177. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
178. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
179. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
180. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
181. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
182. Bowmanville—Oshawa North Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
183. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 30%
184. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 28%
185. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 26%
186. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 26%
187. Oshawa CPC leaning 25%
188. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 24%
189. Long Range Mountains CPC leaning 22%
190. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ leaning 22%
191. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 22%
192. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 21%
193. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 21%
194. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 20%
195. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 18%
196. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 18%
197. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC leaning 17%
198. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 17%
199. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC leaning 17%
200. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 16%
201. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 13%
202. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 12%
203. Niagara West CPC leaning 12%
204. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP leaning 11%
205. Nunavut NDP leaning 11%
206. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 10%
207. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 9%
208. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ likely 9%
209. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 9%
210. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC likely 9%
211. Middlesex—London CPC likely 9%
212. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 9%
213. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up CPC/BQ 8%
214. Saint John—St. Croix CPC likely 8%
215. Edmonton West CPC likely 8%
216. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 7%
217. York Centre CPC likely 6%
218. Terrebonne BQ likely 6%
219. Edmonton Gateway CPC likely 6%
220. Fundy Royal CPC likely 5%
221. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely 5%
222. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 5%
223. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 5%
224. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 5%
225. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 5%
226. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord BQ leaning 4%
227. Vancouver Kingsway NDP likely 4%
228. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 4%
229. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC likely 4%
230. Shefford BQ likely 4%
231. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 3%
232. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 3%
233. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 3%
234. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 3%
235. Windsor West Toss up CPC/NDP 2%
236. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 2%
237. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 2%
238. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 2%
239. Repentigny BQ likely 2%
240. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 1%
241. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 1%
242. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 1%
243. Oxford CPC likely 1%
244. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 1%
245. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely 1%
246. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely 1%