338Canada | Liberal Party of Canada





Last update: September 20, 2021

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 201933.1%
Current vote projection31.9% ± 4.2%
Current number of MP's155
Current seat projection148 ± 40



Vote Projection | Liberal Party of Canada | September 20, 2021




Seat Projection | Liberal Party of Canada | September 20, 2021




Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
2. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe >99%
3. Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
4. Etobicoke North LPC safe >99%
5. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe >99%
6. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
7. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
8. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
9. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
10. Ajax LPC safe >99%
11. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
12. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
13. York South–Weston LPC safe >99%
14. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
15. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe >99%
16. Scarborough Centre LPC safe >99%
17. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe >99%
18. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
19. Brampton West LPC safe >99%
20. Beaches–East York LPC safe >99%
21. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe >99%
22. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
23. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe >99%
24. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe >99%
25. Papineau LPC safe >99%
26. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
27. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
28. Pontiac LPC safe >99%
29. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe >99%
30. Guelph LPC safe >99%
31. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe >99%
32. Orléans LPC safe >99%
33. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
34. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
35. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe >99%
36. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe >99%
37. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
38. Mount Royal LPC safe >99%
39. Outremont LPC safe >99%
40. Mississauga Centre LPC safe >99%
41. University–Rosedale LPC safe >99%
42. Brampton North LPC safe >99%
43. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
44. Vimy LPC safe >99%
45. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe >99%
46. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
47. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
48. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
49. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
50. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe >99%
51. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe >99%
52. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
53. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
54. Brampton Centre LPC safe >99%
55. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe >99%
56. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
57. Brampton South LPC safe >99%
58. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe >99%
59. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe >99%
60. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe >99%
61. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe >99%
62. North Vancouver LPC safe >99%
63. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
64. Kings–Hants LPC safe >99%
65. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe >99%
66. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
67. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC likely 99%
68. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely 99%
69. Markham–Thornhill LPC likely 99%
70. Vancouver Centre LPC likely 99%
71. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 99%
72. Long Range Mountains LPC likely 99%
73. London North Centre LPC likely 99%
74. Louis-Hébert LPC likely 99%
75. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely 99%
76. Brampton East LPC likely 99%
77. Avalon LPC likely 99%
78. Cardigan LPC likely 98%
79. Winnipeg North LPC likely 98%
80. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely 98%
81. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely 97%
82. Milton LPC likely 97%
83. Don Valley North LPC likely 96%
84. Burlington LPC likely 96%
85. Spadina–Fort York LPC likely 96%
86. Nepean LPC likely 96%
87. Ottawa Centre LPC likely 96%
88. Northwest Territories LPC likely 96%
89. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely 96%
90. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC likely 95%
91. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC likely 95%
92. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely 94%
93. Vancouver South LPC likely 93%
94. Toronto–Danforth LPC likely 92%
95. Central Nova LPC likely 92%
96. London West LPC likely 92%
97. Willowdale LPC likely 92%
98. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely 91%
99. Sudbury LPC likely 91%
100. Cambridge LPC likely 91%
101. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely 90%
102. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely 90%
103. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC leaning 90%
104. Malpeque LPC leaning 89%
105. St. John’s East LPC leaning 89%
106. Davenport LPC leaning 89%
107. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC leaning 88%
108. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning 87%
109. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 86%
110. Niagara Centre LPC leaning 85%
111. Surrey–Newton LPC leaning 85%
112. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning 84%
113. York Centre LPC leaning 83%
114. Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning 82%
115. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning 81%
116. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning 80%
117. Oakville LPC leaning 79%
118. St. Catharines LPC leaning 79%
119. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning 78%
120. Yukon LPC leaning 77%
121. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning 76%
122. Compton–Stanstead LPC leaning 76%
123. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning 76%
124. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning 74%
125. Winnipeg South LPC leaning 73%
126. Cape Breton–Canso LPC leaning 73%
127. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning 72%
128. Thunder Bay–Rainy River LPC leaning 71%
129. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
130. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
131. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 69%
132. Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
133. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ 68%
134. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/NDP 67%
135. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
136. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ 66%
137. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ 65%
138. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 65%
139. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
140. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP 63%
141. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ 63%
142. King–Vaughan Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
143. Québec Toss up LPC/BQ 61%
144. Hochelaga Toss up LPC/BQ 61%
145. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
146. South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
147. Bay of Quinte Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
148. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
149. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
150. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ 57%
151. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
152. Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
153. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
154. Delta Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
155. Fleetwood–Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
156. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
157. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
158. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
159. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up LPC/BQ 44%
160. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
161. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
162. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 38%
163. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ 36%
164. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
165. West Nova Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
166. Saint John–Rothesay Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
167. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
168. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ 33%
169. Cumberland–Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
170. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 30%
171. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC 29%
172. Windsor West NDP leaning 29%
173. Kitchener Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC 28%
174. Kenora Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 28%
175. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 27%
176. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 25%
177. La Prairie BQ leaning 23%
178. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning 21%
179. Hamilton Mountain NDP leaning 19%
180. Montarville BQ leaning 19%
181. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 18%
182. Niagara Falls CPC leaning 17%
183. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ leaning 15%
184. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC leaning 13%
185. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 11%
186. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 11%
187. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC likely 8%
188. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 7%
189. Burnaby North–Seymour NDP leaning 6%
190. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely 5%
191. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 4%
192. Markham–Unionville CPC likely 4%
193. Saint-Jean BQ likely 4%
194. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ likely 4%
195. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up CPC/NDP 3%
196. Dufferin–Caledon CPC likely 2%
197. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC likely 2%
198. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning 2%
199. Regina–Wascana CPC likely 2%
200. Steveston–Richmond East CPC likely 2%
201. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ likely 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe
2. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe
3. Don Valley East LPC safe
4. Etobicoke North LPC safe
5. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe
6. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe
7. Saint-Laurent LPC safe
8. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
9. Bourassa LPC safe
10. Ajax LPC safe
11. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe
12. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe
13. York South–Weston LPC safe
14. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe
15. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe
16. Scarborough Centre LPC safe
17. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe
18. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe
19. Brampton West LPC safe
20. Beaches–East York LPC safe
21. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe
22. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
23. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe
24. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe
25. Papineau LPC safe
26. Beauséjour LPC safe
27. Gatineau LPC safe
28. Pontiac LPC safe
29. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe
30. Guelph LPC safe
31. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe
32. Orléans LPC safe
33. Ottawa South LPC safe
34. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
35. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe
36. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe
37. Waterloo LPC safe
38. Mount Royal LPC safe
39. Outremont LPC safe
40. Mississauga Centre LPC safe
41. University–Rosedale LPC safe
42. Brampton North LPC safe
43. Halifax West LPC safe
44. Vimy LPC safe
45. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe
46. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe
47. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe
48. Don Valley West LPC safe
49. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe
50. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe
51. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe
52. Scarborough North LPC safe
53. Charlottetown LPC safe
54. Brampton Centre LPC safe
55. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe
56. Toronto Centre LPC safe
57. Brampton South LPC safe
58. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe
59. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe
60. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe
61. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe
62. North Vancouver LPC safe
63. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe
64. Kings–Hants LPC safe
65. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe
66. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe
67. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC likely
68. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC likely
69. Markham–Thornhill LPC likely
70. Vancouver Centre LPC likely
71. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely
72. Long Range Mountains LPC likely
73. London North Centre LPC likely
74. Louis-Hébert LPC likely
75. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC likely
76. Brampton East LPC likely
77. Avalon LPC likely
78. Cardigan LPC likely
79. Winnipeg North LPC likely
80. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely
81. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely
82. Milton LPC likely
83. Don Valley North LPC likely
84. Burlington LPC likely
85. Spadina–Fort York LPC likely
86. Nepean LPC likely
87. Ottawa Centre LPC likely
88. Northwest Territories LPC likely
89. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely
90. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC likely
91. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC likely
92. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely
93. Vancouver South LPC likely
94. Toronto–Danforth LPC likely
95. Central Nova LPC likely
96. London West LPC likely
97. Willowdale LPC likely
98. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely
99. Sudbury LPC likely
100. Cambridge LPC likely
101. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely
102. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
103. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC leaning
104. Malpeque LPC leaning
105. St. John’s East LPC leaning
106. Davenport LPC leaning
107. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC leaning
108. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning
109. Surrey Centre LPC leaning
110. Niagara Centre LPC leaning
111. Surrey–Newton LPC leaning
112. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC leaning
113. York Centre LPC leaning
114. Oakville North–Burlington LPC leaning
115. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning
116. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning
117. Oakville LPC leaning
118. St. Catharines LPC leaning
119. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning
120. Yukon LPC leaning
121. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning
122. Compton–Stanstead LPC leaning
123. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning
124. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning
125. Winnipeg South LPC leaning
126. Cape Breton–Canso LPC leaning
127. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning
128. Thunder Bay–Rainy River LPC leaning
129. Calgary Skyview Toss up LPC/CPC
130. Egmont Toss up LPC/CPC
131. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
132. Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC
133. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ
134. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/NDP
135. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC
136. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ
137. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ
138. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
139. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC
140. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP
141. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ
142. King–Vaughan Toss up LPC/CPC
143. Québec Toss up LPC/BQ
144. Hochelaga Toss up LPC/BQ
145. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up LPC/CPC
146. South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC
147. Bay of Quinte Toss up LPC/CPC
148. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
149. Newmarket–Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC
150. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ
151. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up LPC/CPC
152. Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up LPC/CPC
153. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
154. Delta Toss up LPC/CPC
155. Fleetwood–Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC
156. Fredericton Toss up LPC/CPC
157. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
158. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up LPC/CPC
159. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up LPC/BQ
160. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC
161. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up LPC/CPC
162. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
163. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ
164. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
165. West Nova Toss up LPC/CPC
166. Saint John–Rothesay Toss up LPC/CPC
167. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC
168. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ
169. Cumberland–Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC
170. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP
171. Sydney–Victoria Toss up LPC/CPC
172. Windsor West NDP leaning
173. Kitchener Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
174. Kenora Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
175. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning
176. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
177. La Prairie BQ leaning
178. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning
179. Hamilton Mountain NDP leaning
180. Montarville BQ leaning
181. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
182. Niagara Falls CPC leaning
183. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ leaning
184. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC leaning
185. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
186. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
187. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC likely
188. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely
189. Burnaby North–Seymour NDP leaning
190. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely
191. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
192. Markham–Unionville CPC likely
193. Saint-Jean BQ likely
194. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ likely
195. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up CPC/NDP
196. Dufferin–Caledon CPC likely
197. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC likely
198. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning
199. Regina–Wascana CPC likely
200. Steveston–Richmond East CPC likely
201. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ likely



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