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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: October 5, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection42.5% ± 4.0%
Current number of MPs169
Current seat projection165 [132-203]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 5, 2025 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.7 seat/% 165 [132-203] 42% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × ✓ LPC 165 [132-203] October 5, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 42/78 ON 64/122 MB 7/14 SK 1/14 AB 2/37 BC 20/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | October 5, 2025

34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 38.5% ▼ 42.5% ± 4.0% ▼ 2025 43.8% Max. 46.5% ▼ Probabilities % LPC October 5, 2025

Seat projection | October 5, 2025

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 132 ▼ 165 ▼ 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats Max. 203 ▼ Probabilities % LPC October 5, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
2. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
3. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
4. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
5. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
6. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
7. Orléans LPC safe >99%
8. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
9. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
10. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
11. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
12. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
13. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
14. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
15. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
16. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
17. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
18. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
19. Nepean LPC safe >99%
20. Halifax LPC safe >99%
21. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
22. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
23. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
24. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
25. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
26. Avalon LPC safe >99%
27. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
28. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
29. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
30. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
31. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
32. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
33. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
34. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
35. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
36. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
37. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
38. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
39. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
40. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
41. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
42. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
43. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
44. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
45. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
46. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
47. Victoria LPC safe >99%
48. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
49. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
50. Vimy LPC safe >99%
51. Outremont LPC safe >99%
52. Davenport LPC safe >99%
53. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
54. Papineau LPC safe >99%
55. Guelph LPC safe >99%
56. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
57. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
58. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
59. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
60. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC safe >99%
61. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
62. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
63. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
64. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
65. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
66. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
67. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
68. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
69. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
70. London Centre LPC safe >99%
71. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
72. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
73. Kanata LPC safe >99%
74. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe >99%
75. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
76. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
77. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
78. Brome—Missisquoi LPC safe >99%
79. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
80. Compton—Stanstead LPC safe >99%
81. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC safe >99%
82. Laval—Les Îles LPC safe >99%
83. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC safe >99%
84. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely >99%
85. Cardigan LPC likely >99%
86. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely >99%
87. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC likely >99%
88. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC likely >99%
89. London West LPC likely >99%
90. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC likely >99%
91. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely >99%
92. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely 99%
93. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC likely 99%
94. Winnipeg West LPC likely 99%
95. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely 99%
96. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely 99%
97. Ajax LPC likely 99%
98. Central Nova LPC likely 99%
99. Trois-Rivières LPC likely 99%
100. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
101. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 98%
102. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC likely 98%
103. Burlington LPC likely 98%
104. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 98%
105. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC likely 97%
106. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 97%
107. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 97%
108. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 97%
109. Québec Centre LPC likely 97%
110. Egmont LPC likely 96%
111. Yukon LPC likely 96%
112. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC likely 96%
113. Peterborough LPC likely 96%
114. Mount Royal LPC likely 95%
115. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 95%
116. Sudbury LPC likely 95%
117. St. Catharines LPC likely 93%
118. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 93%
119. Labrador LPC likely 93%
120. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 92%
121. Delta LPC likely 91%
122. La Prairie—Atateken LPC likely 91%
123. Cumberland—Colchester LPC likely 91%
124. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 90%
125. Etobicoke North LPC likely 90%
126. Mississauga—Malton LPC leaning 89%
127. Don Valley North LPC leaning 89%
128. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning 86%
129. Willowdale LPC leaning 84%
130. Whitby LPC leaning 84%
131. Burlington North—Milton West LPC leaning 82%
132. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 82%
133. Oakville West LPC leaning 81%
134. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 81%
135. Beauport—Limoilou LPC leaning 81%
136. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC leaning 80%
137. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou LPC leaning 79%
138. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 79%
139. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 79%
140. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 78%
141. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 78%
142. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 77%
143. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 76%
144. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 74%
145. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 74%
146. Calgary Confederation LPC leaning 73%
147. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 72%
148. Les Pays-d’en-Haut LPC leaning 72%
149. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 72%
150. Oakville East LPC leaning 72%
151. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 71%
152. Bay of Quinte Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
153. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
154. Thunder Bay—Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
155. Carleton Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
156. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
157. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
158. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
159. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
160. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
161. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 58%
162. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 55%
163. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
164. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
165. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
166. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ 48%
167. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
168. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
169. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
170. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
171. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
172. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
173. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
174. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
175. Terrebonne Toss up LPC/BQ 39%
176. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
177. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
178. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
179. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
180. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 34%
181. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ 33%
182. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
183. Central Newfoundland Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
184. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
185. Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC leaning 27%
186. Brampton West CPC leaning 27%
187. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 26%
188. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 25%
189. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC leaning 24%
190. Cambridge CPC leaning 24%
191. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 24%
192. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 22%
193. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 21%
194. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 20%
195. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 20%
196. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 20%
197. Repentigny BQ leaning 19%
198. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 19%
199. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 19%
200. Simcoe North CPC leaning 17%
201. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 16%
202. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 16%
203. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 16%
204. Niagara South CPC leaning 16%
205. Edmonton West CPC leaning 15%
206. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 15%
207. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 13%
208. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ leaning 13%
209. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 13%
210. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 13%
211. Oshawa CPC leaning 12%
212. Nunavut NDP leaning 12%
213. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 11%
214. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC leaning 11%
215. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 10%
216. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 10%
217. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC leaning 10%
218. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 10%
219. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC likely 9%
220. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC likely 8%
221. Mirabel BQ likely 8%
222. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC likely 7%
223. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ likely 7%
224. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely 7%
225. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 7%
226. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 7%
227. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 6%
228. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 6%
229. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 5%
230. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 5%
231. Vancouver East NDP likely 5%
232. Niagara West CPC likely 4%
233. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 4%
234. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 4%
235. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 4%
236. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 3%
237. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 3%
238. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 3%
239. Laurentides—Labelle BQ likely 3%
240. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 3%
241. Middlesex—London CPC likely 3%
242. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 3%
243. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely 3%
244. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ likely 2%
245. Saint-Jean BQ likely 2%
246. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 2%
247. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ likely 2%
248. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 2%
249. Windsor West CPC leaning 2%
250. York Centre CPC likely 2%
251. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 2%
252. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 2%
253. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 1%
254. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 1%
255. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 1%
256. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 1%
257. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 1%