338Canada.com - Liberal Party of Canada






338Canada Projection for the Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: October 23, 2019



Regional Popular Vote Projection






Regional Seat Projection






National Seat Projection





Ordered list of districts

(Percentages indicate the odds of winning the districts according to the 338Canada Projection of October 23, 2019.)

#1 24036 Lac-Saint-Louis Safe LPC>99%
#2 24068 Saint-Laurent Safe LPC>99%
#3 24053 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount Safe LPC>99%
#4 24056 Pierrefonds–Dollard Safe LPC>99%
#5 24069 Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel Safe LPC>99%
#6 24024 Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle Safe LPC>99%
#7 24052 Mount Royal Safe LPC>99%
#8 24029 Honoré-Mercier Safe LPC>99%
#9 24077 Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs Safe LPC>99%
#10 24055 Papineau Safe LPC>99%
#11 35029 Etobicoke North Safe LPC>99%
#12 24057 Pontiac Safe LPC>99%
#13 35121 Humber River–Black Creek Safe LPC>99%
#14 24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville Safe LPC>99%
#15 24030 Hull–Aylmer Safe LPC>99%
#16 24017 Brossard–Saint-Lambert Safe LPC>99%
#17 24027 Gatineau Safe LPC>99%
#18 24015 Bourassa Safe LPC>99%
#19 35095 Scarborough–Guildwood Safe LPC>99%
#20 35097 Scarborough–Rouge Park Safe LPC>99%
#21 13002 Beauséjour Safe LPC>99%
#22 35077 Ottawa South Safe LPC>99%
#23 24040 Laval–Les Îles Safe LPC>99%
#24 35044 Kingston and the Islands Safe LPC>99%
#25 35090 Toronto–St. Paul's Safe LPC>99%
#26 10005 Long Range Mountains Safe LPC>99%
#27 12006 Halifax West Safe LPC>99%
#28 10002 Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Safe LPC>99%
#29 10001 Avalon Safe LPC>99%
#30 12007 Kings–Hants Safe LPC>99%
#31 24037 LaSalle–Émard–Verdun Safe LPC>99%
#32 35070 Nipissing–Timiskaming Safe LPC>99%
#33 59034 Vancouver Centre Likely LPC>99%
#34 35062 Mississauga–Malton Likely LPC>99%
#35 35019 Don Valley East Likely LPC>99%
#36 24054 Outremont Likely LPC>99%
#37 35032 Guelph Likely LPC>99%
#38 35045 Kitchener Centre Likely LPC>99%
#39 35094 Scarborough Centre Likely LPC>99%
#40 35098 Scarborough Southwest Likely LPC>99%
#41 35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore Likely LPC>99%
#42 13005 Madawaska–Restigouche Likely LPC>99%
#43 13007 Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe Likely LPC>99%
#44 35079 Ottawa West–Nepean Likely LPC>99%
#45 10004 Labrador Likely LPC>99%
#46 10003 Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Likely LPC>99%
#47 24074 Vaudreuil–Soulanges Likely LPC>99%
#48 35096 Scarborough North Likely LPC>99%
#49 59039 Vancouver Quadra Likely LPC99%
#50 24078 Vimy Likely LPC99%
#51 59042 West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Likely LPC98%
#52 11004 Malpeque Likely LPC98%
#53 35076 Orléans Likely LPC98%
#54 35027 Etobicoke Centre Likely LPC98%
#55 35021 Don Valley West Likely LPC98%
#56 35115 Willowdale Likely LPC98%
#57 35058 Mississauga Centre Likely LPC98%
#58 35052 London North Centre Likely LPC98%
#59 35108 Toronto Centre Likely LPC98%
#60 24044 Louis-Hébert Likely LPC97%
#61 35009 Brampton East Likely LPC97%
#62 24004 Alfred-Pellan Likely LPC97%
#63 12009 South Shore–St. Margarets Likely LPC97%
#64 46012 Winnipeg North Likely LPC97%
#65 35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Likely LPC97%
#66 59021 North Vancouver Likely LPC97%
#67 35101 Spadina–Fort York Likely LPC97%
#68 59033 Surrey–Newton Likely LPC96%
#69 35112 Waterloo Likely LPC96%
#70 11001 Cardigan Likely LPC96%
#71 35085 Pickering–Uxbridge Likely LPC95%
#72 11002 Charlottetown Likely LPC95%
#73 35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville Likely LPC95%
#74 35001 Ajax Likely LPC95%
#75 35006 Bay of Quinte Likely LPC94%
#76 35075 Ottawa Centre Likely LPC94%
#77 35078 Ottawa–Vanier Likely LPC94%
#78 35110 University–Rosedale Likely LPC94%
#79 35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Likely LPC94%
#80 12003 Cumberland–Colchester Likely LPC94%
#81 35020 Don Valley North Likely LPC93%
#82 35064 Nepean Likely LPC93%
#83 35055 Markham–Thornhill Likely LPC92%
#84 35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North Likely LPC92%
#85 35012 Brampton West Leaning LPC89%
#86 35010 Brampton North Leaning LPC88%
#87 24005 Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Leaning LPC87%
#88 35007 Beaches–East York Leaning LPC87%
#89 35072 Oakville Leaning LPC86%
#90 35011 Brampton South Leaning LPC86%
#91 35008 Brampton Centre Leaning LPC86%
#92 24059 Québec Leaning LPC85%
#93 10007 St. John's South–Mount Pearl Leaning LPC85%
#94 35024 Eglinton–Lawrence Leaning LPC84%
#95 11003 Egmont Leaning LPC84%
#96 35118 York Centre Leaning LPC84%
#97 13009 Saint John–Rothesay Leaning LPC82%
#98 12004 Dartmouth–Cole Harbour Leaning LPC82%
#99 35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills Leaning LPC81%
#100 35053 London West Leaning LPC81%
#101 35092 Sault Ste. Marie Leaning LPC80%
#102 35093 Scarborough–Agincourt Leaning LPC79%
#103 24065 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Leaning LPC75%
#104 35054 Markham–Stouffville Leaning LPC74%
#105 35120 York South–Weston Leaning LPC71%
#106 46011 Winnipeg Centre Leaning LPC71%
#107 35066 Niagara Centre Leaning LPC71%
#108 35103 Sudbury Toss up70%
#109 59011 Delta Toss up69%
#110 35089 St. Catharines Toss up69%
#111 35041 Kanata–Carleton Toss up69%
#112 59040 Vancouver South Toss up69%
#113 12005 Halifax Toss up68%
#114 12008 Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up67%
#115 24070 Saint-Maurice–Champlain Toss up67%
#116 24021 Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up66%
#117 60001 Yukon Toss up65%
#118 46014 Winnipeg South Centre Toss up64%
#119 13001 Acadie–Bathurst Toss up60%
#120 47009 Regina–Wascana Toss up59%
#121 35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up56%
#122 35114 Whitby Toss up56%
#123 59012 Fleetwood–Port Kells Toss up56%
#124 24039 Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up55%
#125 35084 Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up55%
#126 35015 Burlington Toss up55%
#127 35063 Mississauga–Streetsville Toss up54%
#128 46009 Saint Boniface–Saint Vital Toss up54%
#129 59032 Surrey Centre Toss up53%
#130 24016 Brome–Missisquoi Toss up53%
#131 24072 Shefford Toss up53%
#132 24073 Sherbrooke Toss up53%
#133 59007 Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up52%
#134 35057 Milton Toss up52%
#135 35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore Toss up51%
#136 12001 Cape Breton–Canso Toss up51%
#137 35073 Oakville North–Burlington Toss up49%
#138 62001 Nunavut Toss up49%
#139 35087 Richmond Hill Toss up48%
#140 35016 Cambridge Toss up48%
#141 13003 Fredericton Toss up47%
#142 61001 Northwest Territories Toss up46%
#143 35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up46%
#144 12010 Sydney–Victoria Toss up46%
#145 12002 Central Nova Toss up45%
#146 24023 Compton–Stanstead Toss up45%
#147 35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up45%
#148 13006 Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up44%
#149 35042 Kenora Toss up44%
#150 13010 Tobique–Mactaquac Toss up44%
#151 35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up44%
#152 35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up43%
#153 35065 Newmarket–Aurora Toss up43%
#154 59002 Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up40%
#155 35018 Davenport Toss up40%
#156 35117 Windsor West Toss up40%
#157 24034 La Prairie Toss up40%
#158 35043 King–Vaughan Toss up39%
#159 24062 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up39%
#160 35051 London–Fanshawe Toss up38%
#161 24049 Montarville Toss up38%
#162 13008 New Brunswick Southwest Toss up38%
#163 12011 West Nova Toss up38%
#164 13004 Fundy Royal Toss up38%
#165 46013 Winnipeg South Toss up37%
#166 35081 Parkdale–High Park Toss up37%
#167 24001 Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou Toss up37%
#168 59031 Steveston–Richmond East Toss up37%
#169 35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up36%
#170 24041 Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Toss up36%
#171 10006 St. John's East Toss up35%
#172 24067 Saint-Jean Toss up34%
#173 24008 Beauport–Limoilou Toss up34%
#174 59036 Vancouver Granville Toss up33%
#175 35046 Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up33%
#176 35100 Simcoe North Toss up32%
#177 24026 Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up32%
#178 35069 Nickel Belt Leaning NDP30%
#179 35109 Toronto–Danforth Leaning NDP29%
#180 35013 Brantford–Brant Leaning CPC29%
#181 24002 Abitibi–Témiscamingue Toss up28%
#182 24013 Thérèse-De Blainville Leaning BQ28%
#183 59008 Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up27%
#184 35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Leaning CPC26%
#185 35022 Dufferin–Caledon Leaning CPC25%
#186 35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte Leaning CPC24%
#187 59030 South Surrey–White Rock Leaning CPC23%
#188 24071 Salaberry–Suroît Leaning BQ22%
#189 35067 Niagara Falls Leaning CPC21%
#190 59014 Kelowna–Lake Country Leaning CPC19%
#191 35056 Markham–Unionville Leaning CPC19%
#192 46002 Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Leaning CPC18%
#193 24047 Mégantic–L'Érable Leaning CPC16%
#194 35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook Leaning CPC16%
#195 24043 Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Leaning BQ15%
#196 35040 Huron–Bruce Leaning CPC15%
#197 35004 Barrie–Innisfil Leaning CPC13%
#198 35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka Leaning CPC13%
#199 35083 Perth–Wellington Leaning CPC13%
#200 35074 Oshawa Leaning CPC13%
#201 35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry Leaning CPC11%
#202 35023 Durham Leaning CPC11%
#203 24028 Hochelaga Leaning BQ11%
#204 24076 Trois-Rivières Toss up11%
#205 35119 York–Simcoe Leaning CPC10%
#206 24051 Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup Leaning BQ10%
#207 35037 Hamilton Mountain Leaning NDP10%
#208 59017 Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Likely CPC9%
#209 35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound Likely CPC8%
#210 35033 Haldimand–Norfolk Likely CPC8%
#211 24020 Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up8%
#212 35099 Simcoe–Grey Likely CPC7%
#213 59025 Richmond Centre Likely CPC7%
#214 24035 Lac-Saint-Jean Leaning BQ6%
#215 35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke Likely CPC6%
#216 35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes Likely CPC5%