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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: April 13, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection43.5% ± 4.6%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection194 [162-227]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 13, 2025 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 8.1 seat/% 194 [162-227] 43% ± 5% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ LPC 194 [162-227] April 13, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 7/7 PEI 4/4 NS 8/11 NB 6/10 QC 46/78 ON 82/122 MB 7/14 SK 1/14 AB 7/37 BC 22/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | April 13, 2025

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 38.9% ▼ 43.5% ± 4.6% ▼ Max. 48.1% ▼ Probabilities % LPC April 13, 2025

Seat projection | April 13, 2025

120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2021 160 seats Min. 162 ▼ Majority 172 seats 194 ▼ Max. 227 ▼ Probabilities % LPC April 13, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
2. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
3. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
4. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
5. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe >99%
6. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
7. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
8. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
9. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
10. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
11. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC safe >99%
12. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
13. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
14. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
15. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
16. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
17. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
18. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
19. Markham—Thornhill LPC safe >99%
20. Etobicoke North LPC safe >99%
21. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
22. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
23. Mount Royal LPC safe >99%
24. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
25. Vimy LPC safe >99%
26. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC safe >99%
27. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC safe >99%
28. Orléans LPC safe >99%
29. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
30. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
31. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
32. Ajax LPC safe >99%
33. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC safe >99%
34. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
35. Davenport LPC safe >99%
36. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
37. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
38. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
39. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
40. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
41. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
42. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
43. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
44. Mississauga Centre LPC safe >99%
45. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
46. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
47. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
48. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
49. Mississauga—Malton LPC safe >99%
50. Halifax LPC safe >99%
51. Papineau LPC safe >99%
52. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
53. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
54. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
55. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
56. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
57. Outremont LPC safe >99%
58. Laval—Les Îles LPC safe >99%
59. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
60. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
61. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
62. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
63. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
64. Surrey Newton LPC safe >99%
65. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
66. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC safe >99%
67. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
68. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe >99%
69. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
70. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
71. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
72. Guelph LPC safe >99%
73. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC safe >99%
74. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
75. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
76. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
77. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
78. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
79. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC safe >99%
80. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
81. Compton—Stanstead LPC safe >99%
82. Brome—Missisquoi LPC safe >99%
83. London Centre LPC safe >99%
84. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC safe >99%
85. Nepean LPC safe >99%
86. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC safe >99%
87. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
88. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC safe >99%
89. Avalon LPC safe >99%
90. Hamilton Mountain LPC safe >99%
91. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC safe >99%
92. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC safe >99%
93. Sudbury LPC safe >99%
94. Markham—Stouffville LPC safe >99%
95. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
96. Don Valley North LPC safe >99%
97. Pickering—Brooklin LPC safe >99%
98. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC safe >99%
99. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LPC safe >99%
100. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
101. Brampton West LPC likely >99%
102. Louis-Hébert LPC likely >99%
103. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely >99%
104. Cardigan LPC likely >99%
105. Central Nova LPC likely >99%
106. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC likely >99%
107. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC likely >99%
108. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely >99%
109. Brampton South LPC likely >99%
110. St. Catharines LPC likely >99%
111. Brampton East LPC likely >99%
112. Whitby LPC likely >99%
113. Willowdale LPC likely 99%
114. Charlottetown LPC likely 99%
115. Egmont LPC likely 99%
116. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 99%
117. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore LPC likely 99%
118. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt LPC likely 99%
119. Québec Centre LPC likely 99%
120. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
121. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 99%
122. Brampton North—Caledon LPC likely 99%
123. Burlington LPC likely 99%
124. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC likely 99%
125. Kanata LPC likely 99%
126. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC likely 99%
127. London West LPC likely 99%
128. Cambridge LPC likely 99%
129. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC likely 98%
130. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC likely 98%
131. Delta LPC likely 98%
132. Winnipeg West LPC likely 98%
133. Labrador LPC likely 98%
134. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC likely 98%
135. Eglinton—Lawrence LPC likely 98%
136. Brampton Centre LPC likely 98%
137. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC likely 98%
138. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC likely 98%
139. Newmarket—Aurora LPC likely 98%
140. Oakville West LPC likely 98%
141. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC likely 97%
142. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC likely 97%
143. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC likely 97%
144. Malpeque LPC likely 97%
145. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 97%
146. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC likely 96%
147. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville LPC likely 96%
148. Shefford LPC likely 96%
149. Kitchener—Conestoga LPC likely 95%
150. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj LPC likely 95%
151. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 95%
152. Richmond Hill South LPC likely 95%
153. Vaughan—Woodbridge LPC likely 94%
154. Yukon LPC likely 94%
155. Calgary McKnight LPC likely 94%
156. Long Range Mountains LPC likely 93%
157. Markham—Unionville LPC likely 93%
158. Kitchener South—Hespeler LPC likely 92%
159. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC likely 92%
160. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert LPC likely 90%
161. Victoria LPC leaning 90%
162. Milton East—Halton Hills South LPC leaning 87%
163. Oakville East LPC leaning 84%
164. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 83%
165. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 83%
166. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk LPC leaning 83%
167. York Centre LPC leaning 79%
168. La Prairie—Atateken LPC leaning 77%
169. Vancouver Kingsway LPC leaning 77%
170. Langley Township—Fraser Heights LPC leaning 76%
171. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill LPC leaning 75%
172. Richmond East—Steveston LPC leaning 71%
173. Niagara South LPC leaning 71%
174. Calgary Skyview LPC leaning 70%
175. Edmonton Southeast LPC leaning 70%
176. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
177. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 66%
178. Central Newfoundland Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
179. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
180. Les Pays-d’en-Haut Toss up LPC/BQ 63%
181. Repentigny Toss up LPC/BQ 61%
182. Peterborough Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
183. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/BQ 60%
184. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
185. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Toss up LPC/BQ 57%
186. London—Fanshawe Toss up LPC/NDP 54%
187. Edmonton Gateway Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
188. Terrebonne Toss up LPC/BQ 53%
189. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Toss up LPC/NDP 52%
190. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 52%
191. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
192. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 51%
193. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
194. La Pointe-de-l’Île Toss up LPC/BQ 50%
195. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
196. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
197. Abbotsford—South Langley Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
198. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
199. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Toss up LPC/BQ 47%
200. Windsor West Toss up LPC/NDP 47%
201. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
202. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 46%
203. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
204. Winnipeg Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 45%
205. Edmonton West Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
206. Saint-Jean Toss up LPC/BQ 44%
207. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton Toss up LPC/BQ 39%
208. South Shore—St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
209. Bay of Quinte Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
210. Edmonton Northwest Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
211. King—Vaughan Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
212. Cumberland—Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
213. Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC leaning 30%
214. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning 28%
215. Laurentides—Labelle BQ leaning 28%
216. Acadie—Annapolis CPC leaning 28%
217. Berthier—Maskinongé Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ 26%
218. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC leaning 24%
219. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 24%
220. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ leaning 24%
221. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 23%
222. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning 22%
223. Vancouver East NDP leaning 21%
224. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 21%
225. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 19%
226. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 16%
227. Calgary Crowfoot CPC leaning 15%
228. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ leaning 14%
229. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 14%
230. Rivière-du-Nord BQ leaning 14%
231. Niagara West CPC leaning 13%
232. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 12%
233. Mirabel BQ leaning 12%
234. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma CPC leaning 12%
235. Beloeil—Chambly BQ leaning 12%
236. Simcoe North CPC leaning 10%
237. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 10%
238. Carleton CPC likely 8%
239. Fundy Royal CPC likely 7%
240. New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury CPC likely 7%
241. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 7%
242. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 6%
243. Beauport—Limoilou CPC likely 6%
244. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC likely 6%
245. Calgary East CPC likely 6%
246. Thornhill CPC likely 5%
247. Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC likely 5%
248. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 5%
249. Barrie South—Innisfil CPC likely 4%
250. Nanaimo—Ladysmith Toss up CPC/GPC 4%
251. Chilliwack—Hope CPC likely 3%
252. Saskatoon West CPC likely 3%
253. Saskatoon South CPC likely 3%
254. Middlesex—London CPC likely 3%
255. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ likely 3%
256. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ 2%
257. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 2%
258. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 2%
259. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 2%
260. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely 2%
261. Montcalm BQ likely 2%
262. Joliette—Manawan BQ likely 2%
263. Oshawa CPC likely 2%
264. Saskatoon—University CPC likely 2%
265. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ leaning 2%
266. Dufferin—Caledon CPC likely 2%
267. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely 2%
268. York—Durham CPC likely 1%