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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada





Last update: October 2, 2022

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection31.1% ± 3.6%
Current number of MP's159
Current seat projection136 [94-166]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold >99%
2. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold >99%
3. Scarborough North LPC safe hold >99%
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold >99%
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold >99%
6. Winnipeg North LPC safe hold >99%
7. Bourassa LPC safe hold >99%
8. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold >99%
9. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe hold >99%
10. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold >99%
11. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold >99%
12. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe hold >99%
13. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold >99%
14. Etobicoke North LPC safe hold >99%
15. Beauséjour LPC safe hold >99%
16. Winnipeg South LPC safe hold >99%
17. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold >99%
18. Don Valley East LPC safe hold >99%
19. Vancouver South LPC safe hold >99%
20. Scarborough Centre LPC safe hold >99%
21. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold >99%
22. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold >99%
23. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold >99%
24. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold >99%
25. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe hold >99%
26. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold >99%
27. York South–Weston LPC safe hold >99%
28. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold >99%
29. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe hold >99%
30. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold >99%
31. Gatineau LPC safe hold >99%
32. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold >99%
33. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold >99%
34. Vimy LPC safe hold >99%
35. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold >99%
36. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold >99%
37. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold >99%
38. Mount Royal LPC safe hold >99%
39. Halifax West LPC safe hold >99%
40. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold >99%
41. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold >99%
42. Ajax LPC safe hold >99%
43. North Vancouver LPC safe hold >99%
44. Surrey Centre LPC safe hold >99%
45. Pontiac LPC safe hold >99%
46. Papineau LPC safe hold >99%
47. Kings–Hants LPC safe hold >99%
48. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe hold >99%
49. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe hold >99%
50. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe hold >99%
51. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe hold >99%
52. Cardigan LPC safe hold >99%
53. Avalon LPC safe hold >99%
54. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe hold >99%
55. Brampton West LPC safe hold >99%
56. Mississauga Centre LPC safe hold >99%
57. Saint John–Rothesay LPC safe hold >99%
58. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe hold >99%
59. Central Nova LPC safe hold >99%
60. Brampton East LPC likely hold 99%
61. Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold 99%
62. Ottawa South LPC likely hold 99%
63. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely hold 99%
64. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely hold 99%
65. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely hold 99%
66. Don Valley North LPC likely hold 99%
67. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely hold 99%
68. Charlottetown LPC likely hold 99%
69. Egmont LPC likely hold 99%
70. Orléans LPC likely hold 99%
71. Vancouver Centre LPC likely hold 98%
72. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely hold 98%
73. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold 98%
74. Mississauga–Malton LPC likely hold 97%
75. Brampton North LPC likely hold 97%
76. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold 97%
77. Guelph LPC likely hold 97%
78. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely hold 96%
79. Steveston–Richmond East LPC likely hold 96%
80. Delta LPC likely hold 95%
81. Brampton South LPC likely hold 95%
82. Sherbrooke LPC likely hold 95%
83. Labrador LPC likely hold 93%
84. Waterloo LPC likely hold 93%
85. Louis-Hébert LPC likely hold 92%
86. Outremont LPC likely hold 92%
87. Malpeque LPC likely hold 91%
88. St. John’s East LPC likely hold 91%
89. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC leaning hold 90%
90. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning hold 89%
91. Milton LPC leaning hold 89%
92. Québec LPC leaning hold 88%
93. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning hold 88%
94. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold 88%
95. Compton–Stanstead LPC leaning hold 88%
96. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC leaning hold 87%
97. Long Range Mountains LPC leaning hold 87%
98. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning hold 84%
99. Willowdale LPC leaning hold 83%
100. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC leaning hold 83%
101. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC leaning hold 82%
102. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning hold 82%
103. Sydney–Victoria LPC leaning hold 80%
104. Don Valley West LPC leaning hold 80%
105. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold 77%
106. Brampton Centre LPC leaning hold 77%
107. Fredericton LPC leaning hold 76%
108. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning hold 74%
109. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning hold 73%
110. Calgary Skyview LPC leaning hold 72%
111. Richmond Centre LPC leaning hold 71%
112. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning hold 70%
113. Yukon LPC leaning hold 70%
114. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/NDP 70%
115. Mississauga–Streetsville Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
116. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP 69%
117. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 69%
118. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 65%
119. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/NDP 64%
120. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP 62%
121. Etobicoke Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
122. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 59%
123. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
124. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 58%
125. Brome–Missisquoi Toss up LPC/BQ 57%
126. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 57%
127. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 57%
128. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ 56%
129. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
130. Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
131. Eglinton–Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
132. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
133. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 53%
134. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 47%
135. Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
136. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP 44%
137. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP 40%
138. South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
139. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP 39%
140. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 39%
141. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 38%
142. York Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
143. Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
144. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
145. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
146. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
147. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
148. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
149. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 32%
150. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 31%
151. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 29%
152. Cambridge CPC leaning gain 24%
153. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning hold 23%
154. St. Catharines CPC leaning gain 22%
155. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ leaning hold 22%
156. Oakville CPC leaning gain 22%
157. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC leaning gain 21%
158. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning hold 21%
159. London West CPC leaning gain 21%
160. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC leaning gain 21%
161. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning gain 20%
162. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC leaning gain 20%
163. Kanata–Carleton CPC leaning gain 20%
164. Newmarket–Aurora CPC leaning gain 17%
165. Niagara Centre CPC leaning gain 15%
166. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ leaning hold 12%
167. La Prairie BQ leaning hold 11%
168. Burnaby South NDP likely hold 9%
169. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ likely hold 9%
170. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC likely gain 9%
171. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC likely gain 9%
172. Shefford BQ likely hold 9%
173. Montarville BQ likely hold 8%
174. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely hold 8%
175. Sault Ste. Marie CPC likely gain 7%
176. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely hold 6%
177. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning hold 4%
178. Terrebonne BQ likely hold 3%
179. Regina–Wascana CPC likely hold 3%
180. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely hold 2%
181. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold 2%
182. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely hold 2%
183. Nunavut NDP likely hold 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold
2. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold
3. Scarborough North LPC safe hold
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold
6. Winnipeg North LPC safe hold
7. Bourassa LPC safe hold
8. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold
9. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe hold
10. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold
11. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold
12. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe hold
13. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold
14. Etobicoke North LPC safe hold
15. Beauséjour LPC safe hold
16. Winnipeg South LPC safe hold
17. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold
18. Don Valley East LPC safe hold
19. Vancouver South LPC safe hold
20. Scarborough Centre LPC safe hold
21. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold
22. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold
23. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold
24. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
25. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe hold
26. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold
27. York South–Weston LPC safe hold
28. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold
29. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe hold
30. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold
31. Gatineau LPC safe hold
32. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold
33. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold
34. Vimy LPC safe hold
35. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold
36. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold
37. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold
38. Mount Royal LPC safe hold
39. Halifax West LPC safe hold
40. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold
41. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold
42. Ajax LPC safe hold
43. North Vancouver LPC safe hold
44. Surrey Centre LPC safe hold
45. Pontiac LPC safe hold
46. Papineau LPC safe hold
47. Kings–Hants LPC safe hold
48. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe hold
49. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe hold
50. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe hold
51. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe hold
52. Cardigan LPC safe hold
53. Avalon LPC safe hold
54. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC safe hold
55. Brampton West LPC safe hold
56. Mississauga Centre LPC safe hold
57. Saint John–Rothesay LPC safe hold
58. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC safe hold
59. Central Nova LPC safe hold
60. Brampton East LPC likely hold
61. Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold
62. Ottawa South LPC likely hold
63. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely hold
64. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely hold
65. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely hold
66. Don Valley North LPC likely hold
67. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely hold
68. Charlottetown LPC likely hold
69. Egmont LPC likely hold
70. Orléans LPC likely hold
71. Vancouver Centre LPC likely hold
72. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely hold
73. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
74. Mississauga–Malton LPC likely hold
75. Brampton North LPC likely hold
76. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold
77. Guelph LPC likely hold
78. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely hold
79. Steveston–Richmond East LPC likely hold
80. Delta LPC likely hold
81. Brampton South LPC likely hold
82. Sherbrooke LPC likely hold
83. Labrador LPC likely hold
84. Waterloo LPC likely hold
85. Louis-Hébert LPC likely hold
86. Outremont LPC likely hold
87. Malpeque LPC likely hold
88. St. John’s East LPC likely hold
89. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC leaning hold
90. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning hold
91. Milton LPC leaning hold
92. Québec LPC leaning hold
93. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC leaning hold
94. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold
95. Compton–Stanstead LPC leaning hold
96. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC leaning hold
97. Long Range Mountains LPC leaning hold
98. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning hold
99. Willowdale LPC leaning hold
100. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC leaning hold
101. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC leaning hold
102. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning hold
103. Sydney–Victoria LPC leaning hold
104. Don Valley West LPC leaning hold
105. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC leaning hold
106. Brampton Centre LPC leaning hold
107. Fredericton LPC leaning hold
108. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning hold
109. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning hold
110. Calgary Skyview LPC leaning hold
111. Richmond Centre LPC leaning hold
112. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning hold
113. Yukon LPC leaning hold
114. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/NDP
115. Mississauga–Streetsville Toss up LPC/CPC
116. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP
117. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
118. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
119. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/NDP
120. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
121. Etobicoke Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
122. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
123. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up LPC/CPC
124. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
125. Brome–Missisquoi Toss up LPC/BQ
126. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
127. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
128. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ
129. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Toss up LPC/CPC
130. Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
131. Eglinton–Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC
132. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Toss up LPC/CPC
133. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
134. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
135. Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up LPC/CPC
136. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
137. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP
138. South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up LPC/CPC
139. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
140. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
141. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
142. York Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
143. Miramichi–Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC
144. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC
145. Whitby Toss up LPC/CPC
146. Oakville North–Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
147. Richmond Hill Toss up LPC/CPC
148. Burlington Toss up LPC/CPC
149. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
150. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
151. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC
152. Cambridge CPC leaning gain
153. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC leaning hold
154. St. Catharines CPC leaning gain
155. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ leaning hold
156. Oakville CPC leaning gain
157. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC leaning gain
158. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning hold
159. London West CPC leaning gain
160. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC leaning gain
161. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning gain
162. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC leaning gain
163. Kanata–Carleton CPC leaning gain
164. Newmarket–Aurora CPC leaning gain
165. Niagara Centre CPC leaning gain
166. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ leaning hold
167. La Prairie BQ leaning hold
168. Burnaby South NDP likely hold
169. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ likely hold
170. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC likely gain
171. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC likely gain
172. Shefford BQ likely hold
173. Montarville BQ likely hold
174. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC likely hold
175. Sault Ste. Marie CPC likely gain
176. Cumberland–Colchester CPC likely hold
177. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning hold
178. Terrebonne BQ likely hold
179. Regina–Wascana CPC likely hold
180. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely hold
181. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold
182. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely hold
183. Nunavut NDP likely hold