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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: May 25, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.7%
Current vote projection43.7% ± 2.8%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection169 [145-196]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 25, 2025 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.8 seat/% 169 [145-196] 44% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ LPC 169 [145-196] May 25, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 4/7 PEI 4/4 NS 10/11 NB 6/10 QC 44/78 ON 70/122 MB 6/14 SK 1/14 AB 2/37 BC 20/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | May 25, 2025

37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 40.9% ▼ 43.7% ± 2.8% ▼ Max. 46.6% ▼ Probabilities % LPC May 25, 2025

Seat projection | May 25, 2025

115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 145 ▼ 2021 160 seats 169 ▼ Majority 172 seats Max. 196 ▼ Probabilities % LPC May 25, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
2. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
3. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
4. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
5. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
6. Orléans LPC safe >99%
7. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
8. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
9. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
10. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
11. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
12. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
13. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
14. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
15. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
16. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
17. Nepean LPC safe >99%
18. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
19. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
20. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
21. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
22. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
23. Halifax LPC safe >99%
24. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
25. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
26. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
27. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
28. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
29. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
30. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
31. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
32. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
33. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
34. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
35. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
36. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
37. Kanata LPC safe >99%
38. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
39. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
40. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
41. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
42. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
43. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
44. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
45. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
46. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
47. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
48. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
49. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
50. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
51. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
52. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
53. Avalon LPC safe >99%
54. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
55. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
56. Davenport LPC safe >99%
57. London Centre LPC safe >99%
58. London West LPC safe >99%
59. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC safe >99%
60. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
61. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
62. Outremont LPC safe >99%
63. Guelph LPC safe >99%
64. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
65. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
66. Victoria LPC safe >99%
67. Vimy LPC safe >99%
68. Papineau LPC safe >99%
69. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
70. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
71. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
72. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
73. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
74. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe >99%
75. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
76. Brome—Missisquoi LPC safe >99%
77. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
78. Compton—Stanstead LPC safe >99%
79. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC safe >99%
80. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
81. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC safe >99%
82. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC safe >99%
83. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
84. Laval—Les Îles LPC safe >99%
85. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC safe >99%
86. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC safe >99%
87. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe >99%
88. Ajax LPC safe >99%
89. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
90. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
91. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC safe >99%
92. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely >99%
93. Trois-Rivières LPC likely >99%
94. Burlington LPC likely >99%
95. Malpeque LPC likely >99%
96. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC likely >99%
97. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely >99%
98. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely >99%
99. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC likely >99%
100. Québec Centre LPC likely >99%
101. Cardigan LPC likely >99%
102. Peterborough LPC likely >99%
103. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC likely >99%
104. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely >99%
105. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely 99%
106. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 99%
107. Winnipeg West LPC likely 99%
108. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
109. Sudbury LPC likely 99%
110. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely 99%
111. St. Catharines LPC likely 99%
112. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC likely 99%
113. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 99%
114. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 98%
115. La Prairie—Atateken LPC likely 98%
116. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 97%
117. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 97%
118. Etobicoke North LPC likely 97%
119. Yukon LPC likely 97%
120. Don Valley North LPC likely 97%
121. Mount Royal LPC likely 97%
122. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 96%
123. Whitby LPC likely 95%
124. Delta LPC likely 95%
125. Central Nova LPC likely 94%
126. Willowdale LPC likely 94%
127. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 94%
128. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 94%
129. Oakville West LPC likely 94%
130. Hamilton Centre LPC likely 94%
131. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 92%
132. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning 90%
133. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou LPC leaning 89%
134. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 89%
135. Beauport—Limoilou LPC leaning 87%
136. Oakville East LPC leaning 87%
137. Egmont LPC leaning 87%
138. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 86%
139. Les Pays-d’en-Haut LPC leaning 86%
140. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 85%
141. Carleton LPC leaning 85%
142. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 84%
143. Labrador LPC leaning 83%
144. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 82%
145. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 81%
146. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 81%
147. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 79%
148. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 79%
149. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 78%
150. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 77%
151. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 76%
152. Brampton East LPC leaning 75%
153. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 74%
154. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 74%
155. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
156. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
157. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 67%
158. Cumberland—Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
159. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
160. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
161. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
162. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
163. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
164. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ 61%
165. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
166. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
167. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
168. Terrebonne Toss up LPC/BQ 51%
169. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
170. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
171. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
172. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 45%
173. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 45%
174. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
175. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
176. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ 43%
177. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
178. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
179. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
180. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
181. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
182. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
183. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
184. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
185. Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning 28%
186. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 28%
187. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 28%
188. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 26%
189. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 24%
190. Simcoe North CPC leaning 24%
191. Repentigny BQ leaning 23%
192. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 22%
193. Niagara South CPC leaning 22%
194. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 22%
195. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 21%
196. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 21%
197. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 19%
198. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 19%
199. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 16%
200. Oshawa CPC leaning 16%
201. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 15%
202. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 15%
203. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ leaning 14%
204. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 12%
205. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 12%
206. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 11%
207. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 10%
208. Long Range Mountains CPC leaning 10%
209. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC likely 10%
210. Saskatoon—University CPC likely 10%
211. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC likely 9%
212. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 8%
213. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 8%
214. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 8%
215. Mirabel BQ likely 8%
216. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ likely 7%
217. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely 7%
218. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 6%
219. Saskatoon South CPC likely 6%
220. Niagara West CPC likely 5%
221. Central Newfoundland CPC likely 5%
222. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 5%
223. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 5%
224. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely 5%
225. Vancouver East NDP likely 5%
226. Windsor West CPC likely 4%
227. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely 4%
228. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 4%
229. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 4%
230. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 4%
231. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 3%
232. Middlesex—London CPC likely 3%
233. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 3%
234. Saint John—St. Croix CPC likely 3%
235. Laurentides—Labelle BQ likely 3%
236. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 2%
237. York Centre CPC likely 2%
238. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 2%
239. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ likely 2%
240. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP likely 2%
241. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 2%
242. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 2%
243. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ likely 1%
244. Saint-Jean BQ likely 1%
245. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 1%
246. London—Fanshawe CPC likely 1%
247. Edmonton West CPC likely 1%
248. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 1%
249. Fundy Royal CPC likely 1%