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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: December 28, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection39.4% ± 3.9%
Current number of MPs171
Current seat projection156 [122-190]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 28, 2025 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.1 seat/% 156 [122-190] 39% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC 156 [122-190] December 28, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 4/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 6/10 QC 38/78 ON 67/122 MB 6/14 SK 1/14 AB 2/37 BC 15/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | December 28, 2025

31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 35.5% ▼ 39.4% ± 3.9% ▼ Max. 43.3% ▼ 2025 43.8% Probabilities % LPC December 28, 2025

Seat projection | December 28, 2025

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 122 ▼ 156 ▼ 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats Max. 190 ▼ Probabilities % LPC December 28, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
2. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
3. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
4. Orléans LPC safe >99%
5. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
6. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
7. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
8. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
9. Nepean LPC safe >99%
10. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
11. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
12. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
13. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
14. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
15. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
16. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
17. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
18. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
19. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
20. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
21. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
22. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
23. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
24. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
25. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
26. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
27. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
28. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
29. Halifax LPC safe >99%
30. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
31. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
32. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
33. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
34. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
35. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
36. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
37. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
38. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
39. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
40. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
41. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
42. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
43. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
44. Vimy LPC safe >99%
45. Outremont LPC safe >99%
46. Papineau LPC safe >99%
47. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
48. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
49. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
50. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
51. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
52. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
53. London Centre LPC safe >99%
54. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
55. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
56. Kanata LPC safe >99%
57. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
58. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
59. Guelph LPC safe >99%
60. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
61. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
62. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
63. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
64. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
65. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
66. Victoria LPC safe >99%
67. Laval—Les Îles LPC safe >99%
68. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
69. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
70. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
71. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
72. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC likely >99%
73. Avalon LPC likely >99%
74. Davenport LPC likely >99%
75. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC likely >99%
76. London West LPC likely >99%
77. Ottawa Centre LPC likely >99%
78. Sherbrooke LPC likely >99%
79. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely >99%
80. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC likely >99%
81. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC likely >99%
82. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely 99%
83. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely 99%
84. Ajax LPC likely 99%
85. Winnipeg West LPC likely 99%
86. Malpeque LPC likely 99%
87. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely 99%
88. Burlington LPC likely 99%
89. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 98%
90. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC likely 98%
91. Cardigan LPC likely 98%
92. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 98%
93. Brome—Missisquoi LPC likely 97%
94. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 97%
95. Compton—Stanstead LPC likely 97%
96. Peterborough LPC likely 97%
97. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC likely 97%
98. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 97%
99. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely 97%
100. Mount Royal LPC likely 97%
101. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely 96%
102. Northwest Territories LPC likely 96%
103. Sudbury LPC likely 96%
104. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 95%
105. Yukon LPC likely 95%
106. St. Catharines LPC likely 95%
107. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely 94%
108. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 94%
109. Etobicoke North LPC likely 93%
110. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 92%
111. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 92%
112. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 92%
113. Don Valley North LPC likely 91%
114. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC leaning 89%
115. Etobicoke Centre LPC leaning 89%
116. Whitby LPC leaning 87%
117. Willowdale LPC leaning 87%
118. Burlington North—Milton West LPC leaning 86%
119. Oakville West LPC leaning 86%
120. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 85%
121. Central Nova LPC leaning 84%
122. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC leaning 82%
123. Trois-Rivières LPC leaning 81%
124. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC leaning 80%
125. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 78%
126. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC leaning 77%
127. Oakville East LPC leaning 77%
128. Egmont LPC leaning 76%
129. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 76%
130. Delta LPC leaning 75%
131. Labrador LPC leaning 75%
132. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 75%
133. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC leaning 75%
134. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 73%
135. Carleton LPC leaning 73%
136. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 72%
137. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC leaning 71%
138. Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ 68%
139. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
140. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
141. Brampton East Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
142. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie Toss up LPC/BQ 64%
143. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
144. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
145. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
146. Surrey Newton Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
147. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
148. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
149. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
150. South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
151. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
152. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
153. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
154. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
155. Cumberland—Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
156. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
157. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
158. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
159. La Prairie—Atateken Toss up LPC/BQ 48%
160. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
161. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Toss up LPC/BQ 46%
162. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
163. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
164. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up LPC/BQ 40%
165. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
166. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
167. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
168. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
169. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
170. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
171. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
172. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
173. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
174. Calgary McKnight CPC leaning 30%
175. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 29%
176. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 27%
177. Northumberland—Clarke CPC leaning 25%
178. Markham—Unionville CPC leaning 25%
179. Newmarket—Aurora CPC leaning 24%
180. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ leaning 23%
181. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 23%
182. Simcoe North CPC leaning 23%
183. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 21%
184. Niagara South CPC leaning 21%
185. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 21%
186. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 20%
187. Cloverdale—Langley City CPC leaning 19%
188. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 19%
189. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC leaning 18%
190. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 18%
191. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 17%
192. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 17%
193. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC leaning 17%
194. Oshawa CPC leaning 16%
195. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 15%
196. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 13%
197. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 13%
198. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 11%
199. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 10%
200. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 10%
201. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 10%
202. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ likely 10%
203. Richmond Hill South CPC likely 9%
204. Long Range Mountains CPC likely 8%
205. Nunavut NDP likely 8%
206. Edmonton West CPC likely 7%
207. Simcoe—Grey CPC likely 7%
208. Niagara West CPC likely 7%
209. Terrebonne BQ likely 7%
210. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 6%
211. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC likely 5%
212. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord BQ leaning 5%
213. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC likely 5%
214. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 5%
215. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 5%
216. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC likely 5%
217. Middlesex—London CPC likely 5%
218. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP likely 5%
219. Shefford BQ likely 4%
220. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely 4%
221. Edmonton Gateway CPC likely 4%
222. Central Newfoundland CPC likely 4%
223. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC likely 3%
224. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC likely 3%
225. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 3%
226. York Centre CPC likely 3%
227. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 3%
228. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 3%
229. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 3%
230. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 2%
231. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 2%
232. Saint John—St. Croix CPC likely 2%
233. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 2%
234. Repentigny BQ likely 2%
235. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 1%
236. Fundy Royal CPC likely 1%
237. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 1%
238. Vancouver Kingsway NDP likely 1%
239. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely 1%
240. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 1%
241. Calgary Skyview CPC likely 1%
242. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 1%