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Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: October 11, 2026
LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection46.8% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPs174
Current seat projection239 [203-274]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 11, 2026 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 9.7 seat/% 239 [203-274] 47% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
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Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ LPC 239 [203-274] October 11, 2026 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 6/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 49/78 ON 109/122 MB 7/14 SK 5/14 AB 7/37 BC 31/43 YT NWT NU
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Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | October 11, 2026

37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 42.4% ▼ 2025 43.8% 46.8% ± 4.4% ▼ Max. 51.2% ▼ Probabilities % LPC October 11, 2026
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Seat projection | October 11, 2026

160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats Min. 203 ▼ 239 ▼ Max. 274 ▼ Probabilities % LPC October 11, 2026
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List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Districts and MPs Current party Projection
1.
Marie-France Lalonde
L LPC safe
2.
Rob Oliphant
L LPC safe
3. L LPC safe
4.
Shaun Chen
L LPC safe
5.
Francis Scarpaleggia
L LPC safe
6.
Mark Carney
L LPC safe
7.
Serge Cormier
L LPC safe
8.
Leslie Church
L LPC safe
9.
Patricia Lattanzio
L LPC safe
10.
Wade Grant
L LPC safe
11.
Tom Osborne
L LPC safe
12.
David McGuinty
L LPC safe
13. L LPC safe
14. L LPC safe
15.
Julie Dabrusin
L LPC safe
16. L LPC safe
17. L LPC safe
18.
Darren Fisher
L LPC safe
19. L LPC safe
20.
Michael Coteau
L LPC safe
21.
Taleeb Noormohamed
L LPC safe
22. L LPC safe
23.
Alexandra Mendes
L LPC safe
24.
Mark Gerretsen
L LPC safe
25.
Jenna Sudds
L LPC safe
26.
Greg Fergus
L LPC safe
27.
Lena Metlege Diab
L LPC safe
28.
Steven MacKinnon
L LPC safe
29.
James Maloney
L LPC safe
30. L LPC safe
31.
Sean Casey
L LPC safe
32.
Melanie Joly
L LPC safe
33.
Terry Duguid
L LPC safe
34.
Sameer Zuberi
L LPC safe
35.
Ginette Lavack
L LPC safe
36.
Anita Vandenbeld
L LPC safe
37.
Ginette Petitpas Taylor
L LPC safe
38.
Evan Solomon
L LPC safe
39.
Danielle Martin
L LPC safe
40.
Eric St-Pierre
L LPC safe
41. L LPC safe
42. L LPC safe
43. L LPC safe
44. L LPC safe
45. L LPC safe
46. L LPC safe
47.
Dominic LeBlanc
L LPC safe
48. L LPC safe
49.
Kevin Lamoureux
L LPC safe
50.
Abdelhaq Sari
L LPC safe
51.
Emmanuella Lambropoulos
L LPC safe
52.
Bardish Chagger
L LPC safe
53.
Kody Blois
L LPC safe
54.
Peter Schiefke
L LPC safe
55. L LPC safe
56.
Yvan Baker
L LPC safe
57.
Ali Ehsassi
L LPC safe
58. L LPC safe
59.
Karina Gould
L LPC safe
60. L LPC safe
61.
Jennifer McKelvie
L LPC safe
62. L LPC safe
63.
Maggie Chi
L LPC safe
64. L LPC safe
65.
Paul Connors
L LPC safe
66.
Joanne Thompson
L LPC safe
67.
Giovanna Mingarelli
L LPC safe
68.
John Zerucelli
L LPC safe
69.
Tanveer Shahnawaz
L LPC safe
70.
Arielle Kayabaga
L LPC safe
71.
Joel Lightbound
L LPC safe
72.
Fares Al Soud
L LPC safe
73. L LPC safe
74.
Hedy Fry
L LPC safe
75.
Angelo Iacono
L LPC safe
76.
Shannon Miedema
L LPC safe
77.
Will Greaves
L LPC safe
78.
Sophie Chatel
L LPC safe
79. L LPC safe
80.
Charles Sousa
L LPC safe
81.
Mike Kelloway
L LPC safe
82.
Annie Koutrakis
L LPC safe
83.
Peter Fragiskatos
L LPC safe
84. L LPC safe
85.
Marjorie Michel
L LPC safe
86.
Chris Bittle
L LPC safe
87.
Carlos Leitao
L LPC safe
88.
Rachel Bendayan
L LPC safe
89.
Dominique O’Rourke
L LPC safe
90.
Viviane Lapointe
L LPC safe
91.
Elisabeth Briere
L LPC safe
92. LPC safe
93.
Francois-Philippe Champagne
L LPC safe
94. L LPC safe
95.
Stephanie McLean
L LPC safe
96.
Faycal El-Khoury
L LPC safe
97.
Sherry Romanado
L LPC safe
98.
Louis Villeneuve
L LPC safe
99. L LPC safe
100.
Marianne Dandurand
L LPC safe
101. L LPC safe
102.
Marie-Gabrielle Menard
L LPC safe
103.
Tim Hodgson
L LPC safe
104.
Doug Eyolfson
L LPC safe
105.
Iqwinder Gaheer
L LPC safe
106.
Heath MacDonald
L LPC safe
107.
Juanita Nathan
L LPC safe
108.
Emma Harrison
L LPC safe
109.
Sima Acan
L LPC safe
110.
Adam van Koeverden
L LPC safe
111.
Ryan Turnbull
L LPC safe
112.
Julie Dzerowicz
L LPC safe
113.
Anthony Housefather
L LPC safe
114.
Yasir Naqvi
L LPC safe
115.
Brendan Hanley
L LPC safe
116.
Jessica Fancy-Landry
L LPC safe
117.
Jill McKnight
L LPC safe
118.
Anita Anand
L LPC safe
119.
Bruce Fanjoy
L LPC safe
120.
Madeleine Chenette
L LPC safe
121.
Caroline Desrochers
L LPC safe
122.
Daniel Gobeil
L LPC safe
123.
Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba
L LPC safe
124.
Kent McDonald
L LPC safe
125.
Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault
L LPC safe
126. L LPC safe
127.
Christopher Malette
L LPC safe
128.
Lisa Hepfner
L LPC safe
129.
Helena Jaczek
L LPC safe
130.
Vince Gasparro
L LPC safe
131.
Rebecca Alty
L LPC safe
132.
Linda Lapointe
L LPC safe
133. L LPC safe
134.
Eleanor Olszewski
L LPC safe
135.
Marcus Powlowski
L LPC safe
136.
Wade Wei Lin Chang
L LPC safe
137.
Jean-Yves Duclos
L LPC likely
138. L LPC likely
139.
Pauline Rochefort
L LPC likely
140.
Maninder Sidhu
L LPC likely
141. L LPC likely
142. C LPC likely
143. L LPC likely
144. L LPC likely
145. L LPC likely
146.
Sean Fraser
L LPC likely
147.
Kristina Tesser Derksen
L LPC likely
148. L LPC likely
149.
Randeep Sarai
L LPC likely
150. L LPC likely
151.
Sonia Sidhu
L LPC likely
152.
Sukh Dhaliwal
L LPC likely
153. L LPC likely
154.
Jacques Ramsay
L LPC likely
155.
Gurbux Saini
L LPC likely
156.
Amandeep Sodhi
L LPC likely
157.
Steeve Lavoie
L LPC likely
158. C LPC likely
159. L LPC likely
160.
Stephen Fuhr
L LPC likely
161.
Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
162. L LPC likely
163. L LPC likely
164.
Philip Lawrence
C LPC likely
165.
Bobby Morrissey
L LPC likely
166.
Fred Davies
C LPC likely
167.
Sandra Cobena
C LPC likely
168.
Timothy Watchorn
L LPC likely
169.
Corey Hogan
L LPC likely
170.
Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
171. C LPC likely
172.
Philip Earle
L LPC likely
173. L LPC likely
174. C LPC likely
175. C LPC likely
176. C LPC likely
177.
Adam Chambers
C LPC likely
178.
Amarjeet Gill
C LPC likely
179.
Connie Cody
C LPC likely
180. C LPC likely
181. C LPC likely
182.
Scott Reid
C LPC likely
183. C LPC likely
184.
Roman Baber
C LPC likely
185.
Natilien Joseph
L LPC likely
186. C LPC likely
187. C LPC likely
188.
Rhonda Kirkland
C LPC likely
189. C LPC likely
190.
Dean Allison
C LPC likely
191. C LPC leaning
192. C LPC leaning
193. C LPC leaning
194.
Scott Aitchison
C LPC leaning
195.
Terry Dowdall
C LPC leaning
196.
Dalwinder Gill
C LPC leaning
197.
Vincent Neil Ho
C LPC leaning
198. C LPC leaning
199.
Raquel Dancho
C LPC leaning
200. C LPC leaning
201.
Tamara Kronis
C LPC leaning
202.
Aslam Rana
L LPC leaning
203. C LPC leaning
204. C LPC leaning
205. C LPC leaning
206.
Ben Lobb
C LPC leaning
207.
Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]
L LPC leaning
208. C LPC leaning
209. C LPC leaning
210.
Rebecca Chartrand
L LPC leaning
211.
Tatiana Auguste
L LPC leaning
212.
John Nater
C LPC leaning
213. C LPC leaning
214.
Andreanne Larouche
B LPC leaning
215. L LPC leaning
216.
Warren Steinley
C LPC leaning
217.
Kelly McCauley
C LPC leaning
218. C LPC leaning
219.
Eric Melillo
C LPC leaning
220.
Michael Kram
C LPC leaning
221.
Corey Tochor
C LPC leaning
222.
Sukhman Singh Gill
C LPC leaning
223. C Toss up LPC/CPC
224.
Greg McLean
C Toss up LPC/CPC
225.
Carol Anstey
C Toss up LPC/CPC
226.
Lianne Rood
C Toss up LPC/CPC
227.
Arpan Khanna
C Toss up LPC/CPC
228. C Toss up LPC/CPC
229.
Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]
L Toss up LPC/NDP
230.
Mario Beaulieu
B Toss up LPC/BQ
231.
Jacob Mantle
C Toss up LPC/CPC
232.
Patrick Bonin
B Toss up LPC/BQ
233. C Toss up LPC/CPC
234.
Kevin Waugh
C Toss up LPC/CPC
235. L Toss up LPC/CPC
236.
Jagsharan Singh Mahal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
237.
Éric Lefebvre
C Toss up LPC/CPC
238. C Toss up LPC/CPC
239. C Toss up LPC/CPC
240.
Harbinder Gill
C Toss up LPC/NDP
241. B Toss up LPC/BQ
242. C Toss up LPC/CPC
243. B Toss up LPC/BQ
244.
Jean-Denis Garon
B Toss up LPC/BQ
245.
Kelly DeRidder
C Toss up LPC/GPC
246.
Clifford Small
C Toss up LPC/CPC
247. Toss up LPC/NDP
248.
John Williamson
C Toss up LPC/CPC
249.
Kurt Holman
C Toss up LPC/NDP
250.
Rob Moore
C Toss up LPC/CPC
251.
John Brassard
C Toss up LPC/CPC
252. C Toss up LPC/NDP
253.
Ziad Aboultaif
C Toss up LPC/CPC
254. C Toss up LPC/CPC
255.
Amanpreet Singh Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
256.
Billy Morin
C Toss up LPC/CPC
257. C Toss up LPC/CPC
258.
Tim Uppal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
259.
Chris Lewis
C Toss up LPC/CPC
260.
Leslyn Lewis
C Toss up LPC/CPC
261.
Marie-Helene Gaudreau
B BQ leaning
262.
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas
B BQ leaning
263.
Michael Guglielmin
C CPC leaning
264.
Christine Normandin
B BQ leaning
265. C CPC leaning
266.
Pat Kelly
C CPC leaning
267. BQ leaning
268. C CPC leaning
269. B BQ leaning
270.
Gabriel Hardy
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
271.
Don Davies
N NDP leaning
272. C NDP leaning
273.
Jenny Kwan
N NDP leaning
274.
Mark Strahl
C CPC leaning
275.
Michelle Rempel Garner
C CPC leaning
276. C CPC leaning
277. B BQ leaning
278.
Leah Gazan
N NDP leaning
279.
David McKenzie
C CPC leaning
280.
Rheal Fortin
B BQ leaning
281.
Kyle Seeback
C CPC leaning
282.
Anna Roberts
C CPC leaning
283.
Yves-Francois Blanchet
B BQ leaning
284. C CPC leaning
285. C CPC likely
286.
Jacques Gourde
C CPC likely
287.
Richard Bragdon
C CPC likely
288.
Shuv Majumdar
C CPC likely
289.
Martin Champoux
B BQ likely
290.
Elizabeth May
G GPC likely
291.
Mario Simard
B BQ likely
292. B BQ likely
293.
Jasraj Singh Hallan
C CPC likely
294. C CPC likely
295.
Gabriel Ste-Marie
B BQ likely
296.
Brad Redekopp
C CPC likely
297.
Rachael Thomas
C CPC likely
298. C CPC likely
299. C CPC likely
300.
Gord Johns
N NDP likely
301. B BQ likely
302.
Melissa Lantsman
C CPC likely
303.
Luc Theriault
B BQ likely
304.
Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe
B BQ likely
305. C CPC likely
306.
Sebastien Lemire
B BQ likely
307. C CPC likely
308.
Stephanie Kusie
C CPC likely
309.
Andrew Scheer
C CPC likely
310.
Colin Reynolds
C NDP leaning
311.
Tom Kmiec
C CPC safe
312.
Grant Jackson
C CPC safe
313. C CPC safe
314.
Ted Falk
C CPC safe
315.
Kerry Diotte
C Toss up CPC/NDP