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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: July 20, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection45.9% ± 4.6%
Current number of MPs169
Current seat projection196 [153-240]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | July 20, 2025 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 11.5 seat/% 196 [153-240] 46% ± 5% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ LPC 196 [153-240] July 20, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 51/78 ON 79/122 MB 7/14 SK 3/14 AB 5/37 BC 22/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | July 20, 2025

36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 41.3% ▼ 2025 43.8% 45.9% ± 4.6% ▼ Max. 50.5% ▼ Probabilities % LPC July 20, 2025

Seat projection | July 20, 2025

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 153 ▼ 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats 196 ▼ Max. 240 ▼ Probabilities % LPC July 20, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
2. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
3. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
4. Orléans LPC safe >99%
5. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
6. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
7. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
8. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
9. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
10. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
11. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
12. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
13. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
14. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
15. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
16. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
17. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
18. Nepean LPC safe >99%
19. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
20. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
21. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
22. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
23. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
24. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
25. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
26. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
27. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
28. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
29. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
30. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
31. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
32. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
33. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
34. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
35. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
36. Halifax LPC safe >99%
37. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
38. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
39. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
40. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
41. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
42. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
43. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
44. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
45. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
46. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
47. Kanata LPC safe >99%
48. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
49. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
50. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
51. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
52. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
53. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
54. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
55. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
56. Vimy LPC safe >99%
57. Outremont LPC safe >99%
58. London Centre LPC safe >99%
59. Davenport LPC safe >99%
60. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
61. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
62. Papineau LPC safe >99%
63. Guelph LPC safe >99%
64. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
65. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
66. Victoria LPC safe >99%
67. Laval—Les Îles LPC safe >99%
68. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
69. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
70. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe >99%
71. Brome—Missisquoi LPC safe >99%
72. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
73. Compton—Stanstead LPC safe >99%
74. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
75. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
76. Avalon LPC safe >99%
77. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
78. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC safe >99%
79. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC safe >99%
80. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC safe >99%
81. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
82. Trois-Rivières LPC safe >99%
83. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC safe >99%
84. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
85. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC safe >99%
86. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC safe >99%
87. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC safe >99%
88. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
89. Québec Centre LPC safe >99%
90. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC safe >99%
91. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
92. London West LPC safe >99%
93. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC safe >99%
94. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
95. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC safe >99%
96. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe >99%
97. Ajax LPC safe >99%
98. Winnipeg West LPC likely >99%
99. Cardigan LPC likely >99%
100. Mount Royal LPC likely >99%
101. Burlington LPC likely >99%
102. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely >99%
103. La Prairie—Atateken LPC likely >99%
104. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely >99%
105. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely >99%
106. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely >99%
107. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely >99%
108. Peterborough LPC likely 100%
109. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 99%
110. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 99%
111. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
112. Sudbury LPC likely 99%
113. Edmonton Centre LPC likely 99%
114. St. Catharines LPC likely 99%
115. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 99%
116. Beauport—Limoilou LPC likely 99%
117. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 99%
118. Les Pays-d’en-Haut LPC likely 98%
119. Central Nova LPC likely 98%
120. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 98%
121. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 98%
122. Etobicoke North LPC likely 98%
123. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou LPC likely 98%
124. Don Valley North LPC likely 98%
125. Yukon LPC likely 98%
126. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 97%
127. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC likely 97%
128. Whitby LPC likely 97%
129. Willowdale LPC likely 96%
130. Burlington North—Milton West LPC likely 96%
131. Oakville West LPC likely 96%
132. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC likely 96%
133. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC likely 96%
134. Egmont LPC likely 95%
135. Delta LPC likely 94%
136. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC likely 93%
137. Oakville East LPC likely 92%
138. Markham—Stouffville LPC likely 92%
139. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert LPC likely 92%
140. Bay of Quinte LPC likely 92%
141. Labrador LPC likely 91%
142. Carleton LPC likely 91%
143. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC likely 90%
144. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 89%
145. Calgary Confederation LPC leaning 89%
146. Terrebonne LPC leaning 88%
147. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 88%
148. Cumberland—Colchester LPC leaning 87%
149. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 86%
150. Brampton East LPC leaning 85%
151. Shefford LPC leaning 85%
152. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 84%
153. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 84%
154. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC leaning 83%
155. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 83%
156. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma LPC leaning 83%
157. Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC leaning 82%
158. Burnaby Central LPC leaning 80%
159. Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC leaning 79%
160. Port Moody—Coquitlam LPC leaning 79%
161. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas LPC leaning 78%
162. Brampton South LPC leaning 78%
163. Eglinton—Lawrence LPC leaning 77%
164. Kildonan—St. Paul LPC leaning 77%
165. Brampton North—Caledon LPC leaning 77%
166. Brampton Centre LPC leaning 75%
167. Kitchener—Conestoga LPC leaning 75%
168. Acadie—Annapolis LPC leaning 75%
169. Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC leaning 74%
170. Repentigny LPC leaning 72%
171. Richmond East—Steveston LPC leaning 72%
172. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord LPC leaning 71%
173. Milton East—Halton Hills South LPC leaning 71%
174. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore LPC leaning 71%
175. Kelowna LPC leaning 71%
176. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
177. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 69%
178. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
179. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 63%
180. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
181. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
182. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
183. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
184. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
185. La Pointe-de-l’Île Toss up LPC/BQ 59%
186. Calgary Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
187. Regina—Wascana Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
188. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
189. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
190. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
191. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
192. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
193. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
194. Regina—Lewvan Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
195. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
196. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Toss up LPC/BQ 50%
197. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
198. Bowmanville—Oshawa North Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
199. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 48%
200. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj Toss up LPC/BQ 48%
201. Mirabel Toss up LPC/BQ 47%
202. Saskatoon—University Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
203. Lanark—Frontenac Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
204. Saskatoon South Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
205. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 43%
206. Oshawa Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
207. Long Range Mountains Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
208. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 41%
209. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
210. Wellington—Halton Hills North Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
211. Edmonton West Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
212. Richmond Centre—Marpole Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
213. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 34%
214. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
215. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
216. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
217. Laurentides—Labelle Toss up LPC/BQ 31%
218. Richmond Hill South Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
219. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC leaning 29%
220. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 29%
221. Edmonton Gateway CPC leaning 28%
222. Edmonton Southeast CPC leaning 28%
223. Saint-Jean BQ leaning 27%
224. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ leaning 27%
225. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 26%
226. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ leaning 26%
227. Niagara West CPC leaning 26%
228. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 25%
229. Edmonton Northwest CPC leaning 22%
230. Saint John—St. Croix CPC leaning 22%
231. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 22%
232. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 22%
233. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 22%
234. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 21%
235. Middlesex—London CPC leaning 20%
236. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning 19%
237. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC leaning 19%
238. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ leaning 16%
239. Fundy Royal CPC leaning 16%
240. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 16%
241. Rivière-du-Nord BQ leaning 15%
242. York Centre CPC leaning 14%
243. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC leaning 14%
244. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC leaning 14%
245. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning 14%
246. Huron—Bruce CPC leaning 13%
247. Perth—Wellington CPC leaning 12%
248. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning 12%
249. Windsor West Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 11%
250. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC leaning 11%
251. Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC leaning 11%
252. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC leaning 10%
253. Beloeil—Chambly BQ leaning 10%
254. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ leaning 10%
255. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC leaning 10%
256. Vancouver East NDP likely 10%
257. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 9%
258. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 9%
259. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC likely 9%
260. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 8%
261. London—Fanshawe CPC leaning 7%
262. Kitchener Centre GPC leaning 7%
263. Drummond BQ likely 6%
264. Calgary Crowfoot CPC likely 5%
265. Jonquière BQ likely 5%
266. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 5%
267. Oxford CPC likely 4%
268. Lévis—Lotbinière CPC likely 4%
269. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely 4%
270. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 4%
271. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP likely 4%
272. York—Durham CPC likely 4%
273. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 4%
274. Calgary Nose Hill CPC likely 3%
275. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 3%
276. Joliette—Manawan BQ likely 3%
277. Calgary Signal Hill CPC likely 2%
278. Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke CPC likely 2%
279. Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC likely 2%
280. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes CPC likely 2%
281. Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC likely 2%
282. Tobique—Mactaquac CPC likely 1%