338Canada.com - Liberal Party of Canada





Last update: April 18, 2021

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 201933.1%
Current vote projection36.5% ± 4.8%
Current number of MP's154
Current seat projection170 ± 37



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
2. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
3. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
4. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe >99%
5. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
6. Etobicoke North LPC safe >99%
7. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe >99%
8. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
9. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
10. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe >99%
11. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
12. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe >99%
13. Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
14. Cardigan LPC safe >99%
15. St. John`s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe >99%
16. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe >99%
17. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
18. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
19. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe >99%
20. York South–Weston LPC safe >99%
21. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
22. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
23. Mount Royal LPC safe >99%
24. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
25. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe >99%
26. Long Range Mountains LPC safe >99%
27. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe >99%
28. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
29. Beaches–East York LPC safe >99%
30. Avalon LPC safe >99%
31. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe >99%
32. Spadina–Fort York LPC safe >99%
33. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
34. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe >99%
35. Orléans LPC safe >99%
36. Scarborough Centre LPC safe >99%
37. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
38. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
39. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
40. Brampton West LPC safe >99%
41. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
42. Toronto–St. Paul`s LPC safe >99%
43. Papineau LPC safe >99%
44. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe >99%
45. North Vancouver LPC safe >99%
46. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
47. Kings–Hants LPC safe >99%
48. Pontiac LPC safe >99%
49. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe >99%
50. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe >99%
51. Outremont LPC safe >99%
52. Ajax LPC safe >99%
53. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
54. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
55. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe >99%
56. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
57. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC safe >99%
58. Surrey–Newton LPC safe >99%
59. Mississauga Centre LPC safe >99%
60. Vimy LPC safe >99%
61. University–Rosedale LPC safe >99%
62. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe >99%
63. Delta LPC safe >99%
64. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
65. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC safe >99%
66. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
67. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
68. South Shore–St. Margarets LPC safe >99%
69. Brampton North LPC safe >99%
70. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
71. Vancouver South LPC safe >99%
72. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
73. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
74. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe >99%
75. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe >99%
76. Brampton South LPC safe >99%
77. Brampton Centre LPC safe >99%
78. Surrey Centre LPC safe >99%
79. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe >99%
80. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe >99%
81. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
82. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
83. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe >99%
84. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe >99%
85. Halifax LPC safe >99%
86. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
87. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe >99%
88. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC safe >99%
89. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC safe >99%
90. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC safe >99%
91. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
92. Labrador LPC safe >99%
93. London West LPC safe >99%
94. Saint John–Rothesay LPC safe >99%
95. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC safe >99%
96. London North Centre LPC safe >99%
97. Etobicoke Centre LPC safe >99%
98. Guelph LPC likely 99%
99. Burlington LPC likely 99%
100. Brampton East LPC likely 99%
101. Egmont LPC likely 99%
102. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely 99%
103. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely 99%
104. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely 99%
105. Milton LPC likely 99%
106. Don Valley North LPC likely 99%
107. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely 99%
108. Ottawa Centre LPC likely 99%
109. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely 98%
110. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely 98%
111. Central Nova LPC likely 98%
112. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely 98%
113. Nepean LPC likely 98%
114. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely 97%
115. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely 97%
116. Willowdale LPC likely 97%
117. Kitchener Centre LPC likely 97%
118. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely 97%
119. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely 97%
120. Cambridge LPC likely 96%
121. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely 96%
122. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely 96%
123. Brome–Missisquoi LPC likely 95%
124. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely 95%
125. St. Catharines LPC likely 94%
126. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely 94%
127. Northwest Territories LPC likely 93%
128. Sherbrooke LPC likely 92%
129. Whitby LPC likely 92%
130. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely 92%
131. Toronto Centre LPC likely 91%
132. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC likely 91%
133. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning 90%
134. Toronto–Danforth LPC leaning 89%
135. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning 89%
136. Hochelaga LPC leaning 89%
137. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning 88%
138. Oakville LPC leaning 88%
139. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning 88%
140. Sudbury LPC leaning 88%
141. Québec LPC leaning 87%
142. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning 83%
143. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC leaning 82%
144. York Centre LPC leaning 79%
145. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning 79%
146. Yukon LPC leaning 77%
147. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning 76%
148. Shefford LPC leaning 75%
149. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning 74%
150. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 72%
151. Nickel Belt LPC leaning 70%
152. Markham–Stouffville Toss up 69%
153. Niagara Centre Toss up 69%
154. La Prairie Toss up 69%
155. Davenport Toss up 67%
156. King–Vaughan Toss up 67%
157. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up 66%
158. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up 63%
159. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up 63%
160. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up 63%
161. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up 61%
162. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up 61%
163. West Nova Toss up 61%
164. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up 60%
165. Richmond Hill Toss up 60%
166. Edmonton Centre Toss up 60%
167. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up 58%
168. Vancouver Granville Toss up 58%
169. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up 57%
170. Montarville Toss up 56%
171. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up 55%
172. St. John`s East Toss up 51%
173. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up 48%
174. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou Toss up 48%
175. Trois-Rivières Toss up 47%
176. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up 46%
177. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up 45%
178. Fredericton Toss up 42%
179. Niagara Falls Toss up 41%
180. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up 39%
181. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up 39%
182. Calgary Skyview Toss up 38%
183. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up 36%
184. Steveston–Richmond East Toss up 34%
185. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up 33%
186. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Toss up 31%
187. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 30%
188. Laurentides–Labelle BQ leaning 29%
189. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC leaning 29%
190. Kenora Toss up 28%
191. Saint-Jean BQ leaning 25%
192. Nunavut NDP leaning 25%
193. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 22%
194. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ leaning 20%
195. La Pointe-de-l`Île BQ leaning 18%
196. Richmond Centre CPC leaning 18%
197. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 17%
198. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP leaning 15%
199. Regina–Wascana CPC leaning 14%
200. Dufferin–Caledon CPC leaning 14%
201. Salaberry–Suroît BQ leaning 14%
202. Windsor West NDP leaning 13%
203. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning 13%
204. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning 12%
205. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning 10%
206. Victoria NDP leaning 10%
207. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely 10%
208. Fundy Royal CPC likely 9%
209. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely 9%
210. Carleton CPC likely 8%
211. Langley–Aldergrove CPC likely 8%
212. Terrebonne BQ likely 8%
213. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC leaning 7%
214. Burnaby South NDP likely 7%
215. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely 7%
216. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ leaning 7%
217. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 6%
218. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely 6%
219. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely 6%
220. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely 6%
221. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely 5%
222. Simcoe North CPC likely 5%
223. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ likely 5%
224. Niagara West CPC likely 5%
225. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ likely 5%
226. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely 4%
227. Durham CPC likely 4%
228. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 3%
229. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely 3%
230. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely 3%
231. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ likely 3%
232. Huron–Bruce CPC likely 3%
233. Repentigny BQ likely 2%
234. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely 2%
235. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely 2%
236. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP likely 1%
237. Mirabel BQ likely 1%
238. Oshawa CPC leaning <1%
239. Thornhill CPC likely <1%
240. Edmonton West CPC likely <1%
241. Beloeil–Chambly BQ likely <1%
242. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d`Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Winnipeg North LPC safe
2. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
3. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe
4. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe
5. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe
6. Etobicoke North LPC safe
7. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe
8. Bourassa LPC safe
9. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe
10. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe
11. Saint-Laurent LPC safe
12. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe
13. Don Valley East LPC safe
14. Cardigan LPC safe
15. St. John`s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe
16. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe
17. Winnipeg South LPC safe
18. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe
19. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe
20. York South–Weston LPC safe
21. Halifax West LPC safe
22. Beauséjour LPC safe
23. Mount Royal LPC safe
24. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe
25. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe
26. Long Range Mountains LPC safe
27. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe
28. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe
29. Beaches–East York LPC safe
30. Avalon LPC safe
31. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe
32. Spadina–Fort York LPC safe
33. Charlottetown LPC safe
34. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe
35. Orléans LPC safe
36. Scarborough Centre LPC safe
37. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
38. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
39. Gatineau LPC safe
40. Brampton West LPC safe
41. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe
42. Toronto–St. Paul`s LPC safe
43. Papineau LPC safe
44. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe
45. North Vancouver LPC safe
46. Vancouver Centre LPC safe
47. Kings–Hants LPC safe
48. Pontiac LPC safe
49. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe
50. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe
51. Outremont LPC safe
52. Ajax LPC safe
53. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe
54. Ottawa South LPC safe
55. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe
56. Waterloo LPC safe
57. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC safe
58. Surrey–Newton LPC safe
59. Mississauga Centre LPC safe
60. Vimy LPC safe
61. University–Rosedale LPC safe
62. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe
63. Delta LPC safe
64. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe
65. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC safe
66. Malpeque LPC safe
67. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC safe
68. South Shore–St. Margarets LPC safe
69. Brampton North LPC safe
70. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe
71. Vancouver South LPC safe
72. Scarborough North LPC safe
73. Don Valley West LPC safe
74. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe
75. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe
76. Brampton South LPC safe
77. Brampton Centre LPC safe
78. Surrey Centre LPC safe
79. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe
80. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe
81. Louis-Hébert LPC safe
82. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe
83. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe
84. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC safe
85. Halifax LPC safe
86. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC safe
87. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe
88. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC safe
89. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC safe
90. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC safe
91. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe
92. Labrador LPC safe
93. London West LPC safe
94. Saint John–Rothesay LPC safe
95. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC safe
96. London North Centre LPC safe
97. Etobicoke Centre LPC safe
98. Guelph LPC likely
99. Burlington LPC likely
100. Brampton East LPC likely
101. Egmont LPC likely
102. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely
103. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely
104. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely
105. Milton LPC likely
106. Don Valley North LPC likely
107. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC likely
108. Ottawa Centre LPC likely
109. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely
110. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely
111. Central Nova LPC likely
112. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely
113. Nepean LPC likely
114. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely
115. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely
116. Willowdale LPC likely
117. Kitchener Centre LPC likely
118. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely
119. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely
120. Cambridge LPC likely
121. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
122. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely
123. Brome–Missisquoi LPC likely
124. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely
125. St. Catharines LPC likely
126. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely
127. Northwest Territories LPC likely
128. Sherbrooke LPC likely
129. Whitby LPC likely
130. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely
131. Toronto Centre LPC likely
132. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC likely
133. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning
134. Toronto–Danforth LPC leaning
135. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning
136. Hochelaga LPC leaning
137. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning
138. Oakville LPC leaning
139. Kanata–Carleton LPC leaning
140. Sudbury LPC leaning
141. Québec LPC leaning
142. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning
143. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC leaning
144. York Centre LPC leaning
145. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning
146. Yukon LPC leaning
147. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning
148. Shefford LPC leaning
149. Cloverdale–Langley City LPC leaning
150. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning
151. Nickel Belt LPC leaning
152. Markham–Stouffville Toss up
153. Niagara Centre Toss up
154. La Prairie Toss up
155. Davenport Toss up
156. King–Vaughan Toss up
157. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up
158. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up
159. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up
160. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up
161. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up
162. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up
163. West Nova Toss up
164. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up
165. Richmond Hill Toss up
166. Edmonton Centre Toss up
167. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up
168. Vancouver Granville Toss up
169. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up
170. Montarville Toss up
171. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up
172. St. John`s East Toss up
173. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up
174. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou Toss up
175. Trois-Rivières Toss up
176. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up
177. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up
178. Fredericton Toss up
179. Niagara Falls Toss up
180. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up
181. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up
182. Calgary Skyview Toss up
183. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up
184. Steveston–Richmond East Toss up
185. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up
186. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Toss up
187. Calgary Centre CPC leaning
188. Laurentides–Labelle BQ leaning
189. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC leaning
190. Kenora Toss up
191. Saint-Jean BQ leaning
192. Nunavut NDP leaning
193. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning
194. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ leaning
195. La Pointe-de-l`Île BQ leaning
196. Richmond Centre CPC leaning
197. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning
198. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP leaning
199. Regina–Wascana CPC leaning
200. Dufferin–Caledon CPC leaning
201. Salaberry–Suroît BQ leaning
202. Windsor West NDP leaning
203. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning
204. Calgary Confederation CPC leaning
205. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning
206. Victoria NDP leaning
207. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely
208. Fundy Royal CPC likely
209. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely
210. Carleton CPC likely
211. Langley–Aldergrove CPC likely
212. Terrebonne BQ likely
213. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC leaning
214. Burnaby South NDP likely
215. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC likely
216. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ leaning
217. Edmonton Manning CPC likely
218. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely
219. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely
220. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely
221. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely
222. Simcoe North CPC likely
223. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ likely
224. Niagara West CPC likely
225. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ likely
226. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely
227. Durham CPC likely
228. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
229. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely
230. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely
231. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ likely
232. Huron–Bruce CPC likely
233. Repentigny BQ likely
234. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
235. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely
236. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP likely
237. Mirabel BQ likely
238. Oshawa CPC leaning
239. Thornhill CPC likely
240. Edmonton West CPC likely
241. Beloeil–Chambly BQ likely
242. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d`Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up



338Canada.com © 2016-2021