338Canada.com - Liberal Party of Canada





Last update: June 20, 2021

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 201933.1%
Current vote projection35.8% ± 4.8%
Current number of MP's155
Current seat projection165 ± 37



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
2. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
3. Etobicoke North LPC safe >99%
4. Winnipeg North LPC safe >99%
5. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe >99%
6. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
7. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe >99%
8. Don Valley East LPC safe >99%
9. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
10. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
11. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe >99%
12. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
13. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe >99%
14. Cardigan LPC safe >99%
15. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
16. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe >99%
17. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe >99%
18. Ajax LPC safe >99%
19. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
20. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
21. York South–Weston LPC safe >99%
22. Mount Royal LPC safe >99%
23. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
24. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe >99%
25. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
26. Orléans LPC safe >99%
27. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
28. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
29. Spadina–Fort York LPC safe >99%
30. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe >99%
31. Scarborough Centre LPC safe >99%
32. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe >99%
33. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe >99%
34. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
35. Long Range Mountains LPC safe >99%
36. Brampton West LPC safe >99%
37. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
38. Toronto–St. Paul`s LPC safe >99%
39. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
40. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe >99%
41. Papineau LPC safe >99%
42. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
43. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe >99%
44. Pontiac LPC safe >99%
45. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe >99%
46. Outremont LPC safe >99%
47. St. John`s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe >99%
48. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
49. North Vancouver LPC safe >99%
50. Mississauga Centre LPC safe >99%
51. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
52. Beaches–East York LPC safe >99%
53. Brampton North LPC safe >99%
54. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
55. Kings–Hants LPC safe >99%
56. Avalon LPC safe >99%
57. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe >99%
58. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
59. Malpeque LPC safe >99%
60. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe >99%
61. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe >99%
62. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe >99%
63. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
64. Vimy LPC safe >99%
65. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
66. Brampton South LPC safe >99%
67. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe >99%
68. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe >99%
69. University–Rosedale LPC safe >99%
70. Surrey–Newton LPC safe >99%
71. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
72. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC safe >99%
73. Delta LPC safe >99%
74. South Shore–St. Margarets LPC safe >99%
75. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe >99%
76. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC safe >99%
77. Brampton Centre LPC safe >99%
78. Vancouver South LPC safe >99%
79. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe >99%
80. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe >99%
81. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC safe >99%
82. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
83. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC safe >99%
84. Guelph LPC safe >99%
85. Etobicoke Centre LPC safe >99%
86. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
87. Burlington LPC safe >99%
88. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC likely 99%
89. London West LPC likely 99%
90. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC likely 99%
91. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely 99%
92. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC likely 99%
93. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely 99%
94. Milton LPC likely 99%
95. Don Valley North LPC likely 99%
96. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC likely 99%
97. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely 99%
98. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely 99%
99. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely 99%
100. Nepean LPC likely 99%
101. Labrador LPC likely 98%
102. Surrey Centre LPC likely 98%
103. Egmont LPC likely 98%
104. Kitchener Centre LPC likely 98%
105. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely 98%
106. London North Centre LPC likely 98%
107. Willowdale LPC likely 98%
108. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely 98%
109. Brampton East LPC likely 97%
110. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely 97%
111. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely 97%
112. Cambridge LPC likely 97%
113. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely 97%
114. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely 96%
115. Central Nova LPC likely 96%
116. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely 95%
117. St. Catharines LPC likely 95%
118. Halifax LPC likely 95%
119. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely 95%
120. Ottawa Centre LPC likely 95%
121. Whitby LPC likely 94%
122. Toronto Centre LPC likely 94%
123. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely 94%
124. Brome–Missisquoi LPC likely 92%
125. Oakville LPC likely 91%
126. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely 91%
127. Kanata–Carleton LPC likely 91%
128. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning 89%
129. Sherbrooke LPC leaning 87%
130. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning 87%
131. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning 87%
132. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC leaning 86%
133. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC leaning 85%
134. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning 85%
135. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC leaning 85%
136. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning 83%
137. York Centre LPC leaning 83%
138. Parkdale–High Park LPC leaning 83%
139. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning 83%
140. Hochelaga LPC leaning 82%
141. Northwest Territories LPC leaning 82%
142. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning 81%
143. Québec LPC leaning 81%
144. Fredericton LPC leaning 80%
145. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 77%
146. Toronto–Danforth LPC leaning 76%
147. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning 75%
148. Sudbury LPC leaning 74%
149. King–Vaughan LPC leaning 73%
150. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up 69%
151. Richmond Hill Toss up 66%
152. Shefford Toss up 65%
153. Edmonton Centre Toss up 61%
154. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up 61%
155. Niagara Centre Toss up 58%
156. La Prairie Toss up 56%
157. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up 55%
158. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up 54%
159. Yukon Toss up 54%
160. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up 53%
161. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up 52%
162. Nickel Belt Toss up 52%
163. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie Toss up 51%
164. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up 50%
165. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up 50%
166. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up 49%
167. Niagara Falls Toss up 48%
168. Davenport Toss up 47%
169. West Nova Toss up 47%
170. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up 46%
171. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up 46%
172. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up 43%
173. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up 43%
174. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up 43%
175. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou Toss up 41%
176. Trois-Rivières Toss up 40%
177. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up 40%
178. Vancouver Granville Toss up 38%
179. Montarville Toss up 36%
180. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up 35%
181. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up 32%
182. Nunavut NDP leaning 27%
183. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up 25%
184. Kenora Toss up 25%
185. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 23%
186. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning 22%
187. Laurentides–Labelle BQ leaning 21%
188. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC leaning 21%
189. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning 20%
190. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 19%
191. Dufferin–Caledon CPC leaning 19%
192. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC leaning 18%
193. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning 18%
194. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning 18%
195. Saint-Jean BQ leaning 18%
196. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ leaning 17%
197. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning 15%
198. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ leaning 14%
199. La Pointe-de-l`Île BQ leaning 12%
200. Carleton CPC leaning 12%
201. St. John`s East NDP leaning 12%
202. Richmond Centre CPC leaning 11%
203. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC leaning 11%
204. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely 10%
205. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely 9%
206. Simcoe North CPC likely 8%
207. Niagara West CPC likely 7%
208. Durham CPC likely 7%
209. Calgary Confederation CPC likely 6%
210. Windsor West NDP likely 5%
211. Fundy Royal CPC likely 5%
212. Regina–Wascana CPC likely 5%
213. Terrebonne BQ likely 5%
214. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely 4%
215. Huron–Bruce CPC likely 4%
216. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely 4%
217. Langley–Aldergrove CPC likely 4%
218. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ leaning 4%
219. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely 4%
220. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely 4%
221. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely 3%
222. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely 3%
223. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely 3%
224. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ likely 3%
225. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up 3%
226. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 3%
227. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely 3%
228. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely 2%
229. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 2%
230. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely 2%
231. Thornhill CPC likely 2%
232. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ likely 1%
233. Victoria NDP likely 1%
234. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely 1%
235. Repentigny BQ likely 1%
236. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely 1%
237. Burnaby South NDP likely <1%
238. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC likely <1%
239. Oshawa Toss up <1%
240. Mirabel BQ likely <1%
241. Perth–Wellington CPC likely <1%
242. York–Simcoe CPC likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe
2. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
3. Etobicoke North LPC safe
4. Winnipeg North LPC safe
5. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe
6. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe
7. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe
8. Don Valley East LPC safe
9. Saint-Laurent LPC safe
10. Bourassa LPC safe
11. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe
12. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe
13. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC safe
14. Cardigan LPC safe
15. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe
16. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe
17. Mississauga–Malton LPC safe
18. Ajax LPC safe
19. Winnipeg South LPC safe
20. Beauséjour LPC safe
21. York South–Weston LPC safe
22. Mount Royal LPC safe
23. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe
24. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe
25. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
26. Orléans LPC safe
27. Halifax West LPC safe
28. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe
29. Spadina–Fort York LPC safe
30. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe
31. Scarborough Centre LPC safe
32. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe
33. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe
34. Charlottetown LPC safe
35. Long Range Mountains LPC safe
36. Brampton West LPC safe
37. Gatineau LPC safe
38. Toronto–St. Paul`s LPC safe
39. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
40. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC safe
41. Papineau LPC safe
42. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe
43. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe
44. Pontiac LPC safe
45. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe
46. Outremont LPC safe
47. St. John`s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe
48. Ottawa South LPC safe
49. North Vancouver LPC safe
50. Mississauga Centre LPC safe
51. Waterloo LPC safe
52. Beaches–East York LPC safe
53. Brampton North LPC safe
54. Vancouver Centre LPC safe
55. Kings–Hants LPC safe
56. Avalon LPC safe
57. Etobicoke–Lakeshore LPC safe
58. Don Valley West LPC safe
59. Malpeque LPC safe
60. Ottawa–Vanier LPC safe
61. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe
62. Pickering–Uxbridge LPC safe
63. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe
64. Vimy LPC safe
65. Scarborough North LPC safe
66. Brampton South LPC safe
67. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas LPC safe
68. Mississauga–Erin Mills LPC safe
69. University–Rosedale LPC safe
70. Surrey–Newton LPC safe
71. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC safe
72. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame LPC safe
73. Delta LPC safe
74. South Shore–St. Margarets LPC safe
75. Ottawa West–Nepean LPC safe
76. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC safe
77. Brampton Centre LPC safe
78. Vancouver South LPC safe
79. Eglinton–Lawrence LPC safe
80. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe
81. Mississauga East–Cooksville LPC safe
82. Louis-Hébert LPC safe
83. Mississauga–Streetsville LPC safe
84. Guelph LPC safe
85. Etobicoke Centre LPC safe
86. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC safe
87. Burlington LPC safe
88. Fleetwood–Port Kells LPC likely
89. London West LPC likely
90. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity LPC likely
91. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely
92. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC likely
93. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely
94. Milton LPC likely
95. Don Valley North LPC likely
96. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC likely
97. Vaughan–Woodbridge LPC likely
98. Saint John–Rothesay LPC likely
99. Nipissing–Timiskaming LPC likely
100. Nepean LPC likely
101. Labrador LPC likely
102. Surrey Centre LPC likely
103. Egmont LPC likely
104. Kitchener Centre LPC likely
105. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC likely
106. London North Centre LPC likely
107. Willowdale LPC likely
108. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell LPC likely
109. Brampton East LPC likely
110. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely
111. Mississauga–Lakeshore LPC likely
112. Cambridge LPC likely
113. Cape Breton–Canso LPC likely
114. Oakville North–Burlington LPC likely
115. Central Nova LPC likely
116. Sydney–Victoria LPC likely
117. St. Catharines LPC likely
118. Halifax LPC likely
119. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely
120. Ottawa Centre LPC likely
121. Whitby LPC likely
122. Toronto Centre LPC likely
123. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely
124. Brome–Missisquoi LPC likely
125. Oakville LPC likely
126. Cumberland–Colchester LPC likely
127. Kanata–Carleton LPC likely
128. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning
129. Sherbrooke LPC leaning
130. Newmarket–Aurora LPC leaning
131. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning
132. Peterborough–Kawartha LPC leaning
133. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC leaning
134. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC leaning
135. Miramichi–Grand Lake LPC leaning
136. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning
137. York Centre LPC leaning
138. Parkdale–High Park LPC leaning
139. Châteauguay–Lacolle LPC leaning
140. Hochelaga LPC leaning
141. Northwest Territories LPC leaning
142. Kitchener South–Hespeler LPC leaning
143. Québec LPC leaning
144. Fredericton LPC leaning
145. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning
146. Toronto–Danforth LPC leaning
147. Markham–Stouffville LPC leaning
148. Sudbury LPC leaning
149. King–Vaughan LPC leaning
150. Kitchener–Conestoga Toss up
151. Richmond Hill Toss up
152. Shefford Toss up
153. Edmonton Centre Toss up
154. Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up
155. Niagara Centre Toss up
156. La Prairie Toss up
157. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up
158. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up
159. Yukon Toss up
160. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up
161. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up
162. Nickel Belt Toss up
163. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie Toss up
164. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Toss up
165. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up
166. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up
167. Niagara Falls Toss up
168. Davenport Toss up
169. West Nova Toss up
170. Edmonton Mill Woods Toss up
171. Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up
172. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up
173. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up
174. Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up
175. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou Toss up
176. Trois-Rivières Toss up
177. Flamborough–Glanbrook Toss up
178. Vancouver Granville Toss up
179. Montarville Toss up
180. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up
181. South Surrey–White Rock Toss up
182. Nunavut NDP leaning
183. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up
184. Kenora Toss up
185. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC leaning
186. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning
187. Laurentides–Labelle BQ leaning
188. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC leaning
189. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning
190. Calgary Centre CPC leaning
191. Dufferin–Caledon CPC leaning
192. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC leaning
193. Calgary Skyview CPC leaning
194. Markham–Unionville CPC leaning
195. Saint-Jean BQ leaning
196. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ leaning
197. Brantford–Brant CPC leaning
198. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ leaning
199. La Pointe-de-l`Île BQ leaning
200. Carleton CPC leaning
201. St. John`s East NDP leaning
202. Richmond Centre CPC leaning
203. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC leaning
204. Simcoe–Grey CPC likely
205. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely
206. Simcoe North CPC likely
207. Niagara West CPC likely
208. Durham CPC likely
209. Calgary Confederation CPC likely
210. Windsor West NDP likely
211. Fundy Royal CPC likely
212. Regina–Wascana CPC likely
213. Terrebonne BQ likely
214. Barrie–Innisfil CPC likely
215. Huron–Bruce CPC likely
216. Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely
217. Langley–Aldergrove CPC likely
218. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ leaning
219. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely
220. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC likely
221. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely
222. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC likely
223. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC likely
224. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ likely
225. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up
226. Edmonton Manning CPC likely
227. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC likely
228. New Brunswick Southwest CPC likely
229. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely
230. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC likely
231. Thornhill CPC likely
232. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ likely
233. Victoria NDP likely
234. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC likely
235. Repentigny BQ likely
236. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely
237. Burnaby South NDP likely
238. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC likely
239. Oshawa Toss up
240. Mirabel BQ likely
241. Perth–Wellington CPC likely
242. York–Simcoe CPC likely



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