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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: June 8, 2025

LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection43.8% ± 4.6%
Current number of MPs168
Current seat projection170 [132-212]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 8, 2025 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.6 seat/% 170 [132-212] 44% ± 5% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ × ✓ LPC 170 [132-212] June 8, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 10/11 NB 7/10 QC 43/78 ON 71/122 MB 6/14 SK 1/14 AB 2/37 BC 20/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | June 8, 2025

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 39.2% ▼ 2025 43.8% 43.8% ± 4.6% ▼ Max. 48.3% ▼ Probabilities % LPC June 8, 2025

Seat projection | June 8, 2025

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 132 ▼ 2021 160 seats 170 ▼ Majority 172 seats Max. 212 ▼ Probabilities % LPC June 8, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Cape Spear LPC safe >99%
2. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC safe >99%
3. Beaches—East York LPC safe >99%
4. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe >99%
5. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe >99%
6. Orléans LPC safe >99%
7. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC safe >99%
8. Toronto—Danforth LPC safe >99%
9. Halifax West LPC safe >99%
10. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe >99%
11. Ottawa South LPC safe >99%
12. Toronto Centre LPC safe >99%
13. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe >99%
14. University—Rosedale LPC safe >99%
15. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe >99%
16. Nepean LPC safe >99%
17. Ottawa West—Nepean LPC safe >99%
18. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe >99%
19. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe >99%
20. Kingston and the Islands LPC safe >99%
21. Moncton—Dieppe LPC safe >99%
22. Halifax LPC safe >99%
23. Scarborough North LPC safe >99%
24. Don Valley West LPC safe >99%
25. Vancouver Quadra LPC safe >99%
26. Ottawa Centre LPC safe >99%
27. St. John’s East LPC safe >99%
28. Sackville—Bedford—Preston LPC safe >99%
29. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe >99%
30. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe >99%
31. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC safe >99%
32. Vancouver Granville LPC safe >99%
33. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe >99%
34. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe >99%
35. Gatineau LPC safe >99%
36. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe >99%
37. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe >99%
38. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe >99%
39. Waterloo LPC safe >99%
40. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe >99%
41. Saint-Laurent LPC safe >99%
42. Bourassa LPC safe >99%
43. Vaudreuil LPC safe >99%
44. Davenport LPC safe >99%
45. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC safe >99%
46. Louis-Hébert LPC safe >99%
47. Outremont LPC safe >99%
48. Guelph LPC safe >99%
49. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe >99%
50. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe >99%
51. Victoria LPC safe >99%
52. Vimy LPC safe >99%
53. Papineau LPC safe >99%
54. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe >99%
55. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe >99%
56. Sherbrooke LPC safe >99%
57. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe >99%
58. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe >99%
59. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe >99%
60. Fredericton—Oromocto LPC safe >99%
61. Beauséjour LPC safe >99%
62. Kings—Hants LPC safe >99%
63. Spadina—Harbourfront LPC safe >99%
64. North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe >99%
65. London Centre LPC safe >99%
66. Charlottetown LPC safe >99%
67. Kanata LPC safe >99%
68. Vancouver Centre LPC safe >99%
69. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC safe >99%
70. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe >99%
71. Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe >99%
72. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe >99%
73. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke LPC safe >99%
74. Brome—Missisquoi LPC safe >99%
75. Compton—Stanstead LPC safe >99%
76. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe >99%
77. Avalon LPC safe >99%
78. Winnipeg South LPC safe >99%
79. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC safe >99%
80. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LPC likely >99%
81. Winnipeg North LPC likely >99%
82. Saint John—Kennebecasis LPC likely >99%
83. London West LPC likely >99%
84. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC likely >99%
85. Etobicoke—Lakeshore LPC likely >99%
86. Laval—Les Îles LPC likely >99%
87. Thunder Bay—Superior North LPC likely >99%
88. Humber River—Black Creek LPC likely >99%
89. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely >99%
90. Malpeque LPC likely >99%
91. Ajax LPC likely >99%
92. Sydney—Glace Bay LPC likely 99%
93. Trois-Rivières LPC likely 99%
94. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC likely 99%
95. Cardigan LPC likely 99%
96. Burlington LPC likely 99%
97. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC likely 99%
98. Mississauga—Erin Mills LPC likely 99%
99. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland LPC likely 99%
100. Northwest Territories LPC likely 99%
101. Madawaska—Restigouche LPC likely 99%
102. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC likely 98%
103. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely 98%
104. Québec Centre LPC likely 98%
105. Peterborough LPC likely 98%
106. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC likely 98%
107. South Shore—St. Margarets LPC likely 98%
108. Pickering—Brooklin LPC likely 98%
109. Winnipeg West LPC likely 97%
110. Sudbury LPC likely 97%
111. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC likely 97%
112. St. Catharines LPC likely 97%
113. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely 96%
114. Mississauga Centre LPC likely 96%
115. Yukon LPC likely 95%
116. Etobicoke North LPC likely 95%
117. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC likely 94%
118. Mississauga—Malton LPC likely 94%
119. La Prairie—Atateken LPC likely 94%
120. Mount Royal LPC likely 94%
121. Don Valley North LPC likely 94%
122. Etobicoke Centre LPC likely 92%
123. Central Nova LPC likely 92%
124. Whitby LPC likely 91%
125. Willowdale LPC likely 91%
126. Burlington North—Milton West LPC leaning 90%
127. Oakville West LPC leaning 90%
128. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish LPC leaning 89%
129. Mississauga—Lakeshore LPC leaning 89%
130. Hamilton Centre LPC leaning 87%
131. Delta LPC leaning 86%
132. Egmont LPC leaning 86%
133. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou LPC leaning 85%
134. Mississauga—Streetsville LPC leaning 84%
135. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning 84%
136. Labrador LPC leaning 83%
137. Oakville East LPC leaning 82%
138. Markham—Stouffville LPC leaning 82%
139. Beauport—Limoilou LPC leaning 82%
140. Bay of Quinte LPC leaning 81%
141. Mississauga East—Cooksville LPC leaning 80%
142. Carleton LPC leaning 80%
143. Thunder Bay—Rainy River LPC leaning 79%
144. Les Pays-d’en-Haut LPC leaning 79%
145. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning 75%
146. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park LPC leaning 74%
147. Surrey Newton LPC leaning 72%
148. Brampton East LPC leaning 72%
149. South Surrey—White Rock LPC leaning 71%
150. Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
151. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
152. Cumberland—Colchester Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
153. Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
154. Nipissing—Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
155. Burnaby Central Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
156. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 65%
157. Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
158. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
159. Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
160. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
161. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
162. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
163. Kitchener—Conestoga Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
164. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ 56%
165. Richmond East—Steveston Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
166. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 55%
167. Kelowna Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
168. Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
169. Milton East—Halton Hills South Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
170. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Toss up LPC/CPC 52%
171. Miramichi—Grand Lake Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
172. Acadie—Annapolis Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
173. Terrebonne Toss up LPC/BQ 47%
174. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 45%
175. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
176. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 42%
177. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ 42%
178. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
179. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
180. Cambridge Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
181. Cloverdale—Langley City Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
182. Northumberland—Clarke Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
183. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
184. Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
185. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
186. Markham—Unionville Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
187. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
188. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
189. Simcoe North Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
190. Niagara South Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
191. Bowmanville—Oshawa North CPC leaning 30%
192. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake CPC leaning 30%
193. Calgary Centre CPC leaning 28%
194. Lanark—Frontenac CPC leaning 27%
195. Repentigny BQ leaning 26%
196. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 25%
197. Oshawa CPC leaning 24%
198. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes CPC leaning 23%
199. Edmonton Riverbend CPC leaning 23%
200. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 22%
201. Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC leaning 22%
202. Wellington—Halton Hills North CPC leaning 21%
203. Regina—Wascana CPC leaning 20%
204. Long Range Mountains CPC leaning 18%
205. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC leaning 18%
206. Elgin—St. Thomas—London South CPC leaning 18%
207. Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning 18%
208. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC leaning 17%
209. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ leaning 17%
210. Richmond Hill South CPC leaning 16%
211. Saskatoon—University CPC leaning 15%
212. Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC leaning 14%
213. Niagara West CPC leaning 13%
214. Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC leaning 12%
215. Simcoe—Grey CPC leaning 12%
216. Central Newfoundland CPC leaning 11%
217. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC leaning 11%
218. Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC leaning 11%
219. Mirabel BQ leaning 11%
220. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ leaning 11%
221. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC leaning 11%
222. Saskatoon South CPC leaning 10%
223. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North CPC leaning 10%
224. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ leaning 10%
225. Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC leaning 10%
226. Vancouver East NDP likely 9%
227. Middlesex—London CPC likely 9%
228. Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC likely 9%
229. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk CPC likely 9%
230. Windsor West CPC leaning 8%
231. Kitchener Centre Toss up CPC/GPC 8%
232. Saint John—St. Croix CPC likely 7%
233. York Centre CPC likely 6%
234. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations CPC likely 6%
235. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP likely 6%
236. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC likely 6%
237. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 6%
238. Huron—Bruce CPC likely 5%
239. Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely 5%
240. Laurentides—Labelle BQ likely 5%
241. Kenora—Kiiwetinoong CPC likely 5%
242. Fundy Royal CPC likely 5%
243. Perth—Wellington CPC likely 4%
244. Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely 4%
245. Edmonton West CPC likely 4%
246. London—Fanshawe CPC likely 4%
247. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ likely 4%
248. Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC likely 4%
249. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC likely 3%
250. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ likely 3%
251. Saint-Jean BQ likely 3%
252. Edmonton Gateway CPC likely 3%
253. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga CPC likely 2%
254. Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC likely 2%
255. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely 2%
256. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC likely 2%
257. Edmonton Northwest CPC likely 1%
258. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ likely 1%
259. Oxford CPC likely 1%
260. Rivière-du-Nord BQ likely 1%
261. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning 1%
262. Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong CPC likely 1%
263. York—Durham CPC likely 1%
264. Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry CPC likely 1%