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Canada


North Okanagan–Shuswap (federal)


MP: Mel Arnold (CPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

CPC safe hold
North Okanagan–Shuswap 61% ± 7% 14% ± 5%▼ 13% ± 4% 8% ± 4% 4% ± 4% CPC 2021 46.42% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% North Okanagan–Shuswap >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | North Okanagan–Shuswap

LPC 13% ± 4% CPC 61% ± 7% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 8% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | North Okanagan–Shuswap 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Odds of winning | North Okanagan–Shuswap

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | North Okanagan–Shuswap



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 39.3% 48.8% 46.42% 61% ± 7% NDP 25.6% 15.3% 19.25% 14% ± 5% LPC 29.9% 22.6% 18.89% 13% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 2.7% 9.96% 4% ± 4% GPC 5.2% 10.6% 5.48% 8% ± 4%