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Canada

New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville


MP: Jake Sawatzky (LPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP

Recent electoral history | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 34% ± 7% 23.9% 23.4% 35.1% NDP 32% ± 8% 43.5% 48.0% 31.5% CPC 32% ± 7% 22.0% 21.0% 31.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 8.3% 3.8% 1.2% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.6% 3.7% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville


New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville 34% ± 7% LPC 32% ± 8%▼ NDP 32% ± 7% CPC LPC 2025 35.1% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville 46%▲ LPC 31%▼ NDP 22%▼ CPC Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville

LPC 34% ± 7% CPC 32% ± 7% NDP 32% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 42% CPC 36% LPC 15% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 41% CPC 37% LPC 16% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 40% CPC 37% LPC 16% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 40% CPC 36% LPC 17% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 38% CPC 35% LPC 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NDP 36% CPC 34% LPC 23% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NDP 34% CPC 33% LPC 25% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 36% CPC 30% LPC 27% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 35% CPC 30% LPC 28% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 35% CPC 30% LPC 29% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 34% CPC 31% NDP 30% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 34% CPC 30% NDP 30% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 30% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 36% CPC 30% NDP 28% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 29% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 29% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 29% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 29% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 29% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 38% NDP 29% CPC 29% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 29% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 39% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 40% NDP 30% CPC 27% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 40% NDP 29% CPC 27% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 40% NDP 29% CPC 27% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 40% NDP 29% CPC 27% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 39% NDP 30% CPC 27% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 41% CPC 28% NDP 28% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 41% CPC 28% NDP 27% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 42% CPC 28% NDP 27% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 43% CPC 27% NDP 26% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 41% NDP 28% CPC 27% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 40% NDP 29% CPC 27% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 40% NDP 29% CPC 27% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 40% NDP 30% CPC 26% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 39% NDP 31% CPC 26% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 39% NDP 30% CPC 26% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 37% NDP 32% CPC 27% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 27% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 27% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 35% NDP 34% CPC 28% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 34% LPC 33% CPC 29% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 34% LPC 34% CPC 29% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 34% LPC 34% CPC 29% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 34% NDP 33% CPC 29% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 34% NDP 33% CPC 29% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 29% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 29% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 35% NDP 33% CPC 29% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 31% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 31% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 31% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 31% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 31% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 32% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 32% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 34% NDP 33% CPC 32% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 32% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville

LPC 46% CPC 22% NDP 31% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 84% CPC 16% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 72% CPC 28% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 71% CPC 29% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 71% CPC 29% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 65% CPC 35% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NDP 67% CPC 33% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NDP 57% CPC 42% LPC 1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 80% CPC 16% LPC 4% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 79% CPC 15% LPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 71% CPC 19% LPC 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 63% CPC 22% NDP 15% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 15% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 70% CPC 17% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 72% CPC 17% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 75% CPC 15% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 79% CPC 14% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 84% CPC 8% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 86% CPC 8% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 87% CPC 7% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 86% CPC 7% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 90% NDP 5% CPC 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 91% NDP 5% CPC 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 92% NDP 4% CPC 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 94% NDP 5% CPC 2% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 95% NDP 4% CPC 1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC 1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 96% NDP 3% CPC 1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 96% NDP 3% CPC 1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 91% NDP 8% CPC 1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 1% NDP 1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 1% NDP 1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 96% NDP 3% CPC 1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 96% NDP 3% CPC 1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 95% NDP 4% CPC 1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 90% NDP 9% CPC 1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 92% NDP 7% CPC 1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 79% NDP 20% CPC 1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 63% NDP 36% CPC 2% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 65% NDP 33% CPC 2% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 54% NDP 42% CPC 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 52% LPC 41% CPC 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 48% LPC 45% CPC 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 49% LPC 45% CPC 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 52% NDP 40% CPC 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% NDP 36% CPC 8% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 59% NDP 32% CPC 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 63% NDP 27% CPC 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 59% NDP 33% CPC 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 74% NDP 14% CPC 12% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 75% NDP 14% CPC 11% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 70% NDP 16% CPC 13% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 67% NDP 17% CPC 16% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 60% NDP 21% CPC 18% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 55% NDP 24% CPC 21% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 26% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 42% NDP 34% CPC 24% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 46% NDP 31% CPC 22% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader