New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP likely	>99%
2.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP likely	99%
3.	London—Fanshawe	NDP leaning	77%
4.	Vancouver East	NDP leaning	75%
5.	Hamilton Centre	NDP leaning	72%
6.	Windsor West	Toss up LPC/NDP	69%
7.	Nunavut	Toss up LPC/NDP	50%
8.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP	49%
9.	Winnipeg Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	35%
10.	Elmwood—Transcona	Toss up CPC/NDP	34%
11.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	28%
12.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	LPC leaning	13%
13.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	LPC leaning	7%
14.	Victoria	LPC likely	3%
15.	Vancouver Kingsway	LPC likely	3%
16.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	LPC leaning	2%