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Canada

New Democratic Party





Last update: May 22, 2022

LeaderJagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 202117.8%
Current vote projection19.6% ± 3.1%
Current number of MP's25
Current seat projection28 [16-49]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe hold >99%
2. Vancouver East NDP safe hold >99%
3. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold >99%
4. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe hold >99%
5. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold >99%
6. Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold >99%
7. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe hold >99%
8. Windsor West NDP safe hold >99%
9. London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold >99%
10. Victoria NDP safe hold >99%
11. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP safe hold >99%
12. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP likely hold 99%
13. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP likely hold 99%
14. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely hold 99%
15. Burnaby South NDP likely hold 99%
16. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely hold 99%
17. Nunavut NDP likely hold 98%
18. Courtenay–Alberni NDP likely hold 98%
19. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold 97%
20. Edmonton Griesbach NDP likely hold 91%
21. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP leaning hold 85%
22. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP leaning hold 85%
23. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning hold 85%
24. North Island–Powell River NDP leaning hold 71%
25. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP 66%
26. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 60%
27. Berthier–Maskinongé Toss up NDP/BQ 51%
28. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP 49%
29. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP 49%
30. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC 48%
31. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP 39%
32. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 39%
33. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP 36%
34. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP 35%
35. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 35%
36. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 34%
37. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 34%
38. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 30%
39. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 30%
40. Saskatoon West CPC leaning hold 25%
41. Kingston and the Islands LPC leaning hold 24%
42. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 21%
43. London North Centre LPC leaning hold 20%
44. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 19%
45. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning hold 18%
46. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 18%
47. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning hold 17%
48. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC leaning hold 17%
49. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 17%
50. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold 13%
51. Essex CPC leaning hold 13%
52. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC leaning hold 12%
53. Kootenay–Columbia CPC leaning hold 12%
54. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold 11%
55. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning hold 11%
56. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning hold 11%
57. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC leaning hold 10%
58. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 7%
59. Kenora CPC likely hold 7%
60. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC 6%
61. Oshawa CPC likely hold 5%
62. London West Toss up LPC/CPC 4%
63. Outremont LPC likely hold 4%
64. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC leaning hold 3%
65. Labrador LPC leaning hold 2%
66. Hochelaga LPC likely hold 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe hold
2. Vancouver East NDP safe hold
3. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold
4. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe hold
5. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold
6. Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold
7. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe hold
8. Windsor West NDP safe hold
9. London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold
10. Victoria NDP safe hold
11. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP safe hold
12. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP likely hold
13. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP likely hold
14. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely hold
15. Burnaby South NDP likely hold
16. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely hold
17. Nunavut NDP likely hold
18. Courtenay–Alberni NDP likely hold
19. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold
20. Edmonton Griesbach NDP likely hold
21. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP leaning hold
22. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP leaning hold
23. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning hold
24. North Island–Powell River NDP leaning hold
25. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP
26. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
27. Berthier–Maskinongé Toss up NDP/BQ
28. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
29. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
30. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC
31. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP
32. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
33. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
34. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP
35. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
36. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
37. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
38. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
39. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
40. Saskatoon West CPC leaning hold
41. Kingston and the Islands LPC leaning hold
42. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
43. London North Centre LPC leaning hold
44. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
45. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning hold
46. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
47. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning hold
48. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC leaning hold
49. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
50. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold
51. Essex CPC leaning hold
52. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC leaning hold
53. Kootenay–Columbia CPC leaning hold
54. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold
55. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning hold
56. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning hold
57. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC leaning hold
58. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
59. Kenora CPC likely hold
60. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Toss up LPC/CPC
61. Oshawa CPC likely hold
62. London West Toss up LPC/CPC
63. Outremont LPC likely hold
64. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC leaning hold
65. Labrador LPC leaning hold
66. Hochelaga LPC likely hold