New Democratic Party

Latest update: September 3, 2023

Leader	Jagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 2021	17.8%
Current vote projection	18.3% ± 3.1%
Current number of MP's	25
Current seat projection	21 [13-35]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Popular vote projection | September 3, 2023

Seat projection | September 3, 2023

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe hold	>99%
2.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe hold	>99%
3.	Vancouver East	NDP safe hold	>99%
4.	Windsor West	NDP safe hold	>99%
5.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe hold	>99%
6.	Elmwood–Transcona	NDP safe hold	>99%
7.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe hold	>99%
8.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe hold	>99%
9.	Churchill–Keewatinook Aski	NDP safe hold	>99%
10.	Victoria	NDP safe hold	>99%
11.	London–Fanshawe	NDP safe hold	>99%
12.	New Westminster–Burnaby	NDP safe hold	>99%
13.	Nunavut	NDP likely hold	98%
14.	Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke	NDP likely hold	95%
15.	Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing	NDP likely hold	92%
16.	Burnaby South	NDP leaning hold	77%
17.	Timmins–James Bay	NDP leaning hold	75%
18.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP	68%
19.	Davenport	Toss up LPC/NDP	62%
20.	Parkdale–High Park	Toss up LPC/NDP	57%
21.	Toronto–Danforth	Toss up LPC/NDP	49%
22.	Spadina–Fort York	Toss up LPC/NDP	45%
23.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	44%
24.	Ottawa Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	41%
25.	Cowichan–Malahat–Langford	Toss up CPC/NDP	40%
26.	Halifax	Toss up LPC/NDP	33%
27.	Northwest Territories	LPC leaning hold	30%
28.	Windsor–Tecumseh	Toss up CPC/NDP	29%
29.	Laurier–Sainte-Marie	LPC leaning hold	28%
30.	Thunder Bay–Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	24%
31.	Courtenay–Alberni	CPC leaning gain	22%
32.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	19%
33.	St. John’s East	LPC leaning hold	18%
34.	Outremont	LPC leaning hold	13%
35.	Nickel Belt	CPC leaning gain	12%
36.	North Island–Powell River	CPC likely gain	10%
37.	Vancouver Granville	Toss up LPC/CPC	9%
38.	Sudbury	CPC leaning gain	9%
39.	Thunder Bay–Rainy River	CPC leaning gain	9%
40.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC	7%
41.	Hamilton East–Stoney Creek	CPC leaning gain	7%
42.	London North Centre	Toss up LPC/CPC	7%
43.	Dartmouth–Cole Harbour	LPC likely hold	6%
44.	Hochelaga	LPC leaning hold	6%
45.	Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook	LPC leaning hold	4%
46.	Edmonton Centre	CPC leaning gain	4%
47.	Skeena–Bulkley Valley	CPC likely gain	4%
48.	Saskatoon West	CPC likely hold	3%
49.	South Okanagan–West Kootenay	CPC likely gain	3%
50.	Edmonton Manning	CPC likely hold	3%
51.	Labrador	Toss up LPC/CPC	2%
52.	University–Rosedale	LPC likely hold	2%
53.	Toronto Centre	LPC likely hold	2%
54.	Guelph	Toss up LPC/CPC	2%
55.	Regina–Lewvan	CPC likely hold	2%
56.	Port Moody–Coquitlam	CPC likely gain	2%
57.	Saskatoon–University	CPC likely hold	2%
58.	Vancouver Centre	LPC leaning hold	1%
59.	Ottawa–Vanier	LPC likely hold	1%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe hold
2.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe hold
3.	Vancouver East	NDP safe hold
4.	Windsor West	NDP safe hold
5.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe hold
6.	Elmwood–Transcona	NDP safe hold
7.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe hold
8.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe hold
9.	Churchill–Keewatinook Aski	NDP safe hold
10.	Victoria	NDP safe hold
11.	London–Fanshawe	NDP safe hold
12.	New Westminster–Burnaby	NDP safe hold
13.	Nunavut	NDP likely hold
14.	Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke	NDP likely hold
15.	Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing	NDP likely hold
16.	Burnaby South	NDP leaning hold
17.	Timmins–James Bay	NDP leaning hold
18.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP
19.	Davenport	Toss up LPC/NDP
20.	Parkdale–High Park	Toss up LPC/NDP
21.	Toronto–Danforth	Toss up LPC/NDP
22.	Spadina–Fort York	Toss up LPC/NDP
23.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
24.	Ottawa Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP
25.	Cowichan–Malahat–Langford	Toss up CPC/NDP
26.	Halifax	Toss up LPC/NDP
27.	Northwest Territories	LPC leaning hold
28.	Windsor–Tecumseh	Toss up CPC/NDP
29.	Laurier–Sainte-Marie	LPC leaning hold
30.	Thunder Bay–Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
31.	Courtenay–Alberni	CPC leaning gain
32.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
33.	St. John’s East	LPC leaning hold
34.	Outremont	LPC leaning hold
35.	Nickel Belt	CPC leaning gain
36.	North Island–Powell River	CPC likely gain
37.	Vancouver Granville	Toss up LPC/CPC
38.	Sudbury	CPC leaning gain
39.	Thunder Bay–Rainy River	CPC leaning gain
40.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC
41.	Hamilton East–Stoney Creek	CPC leaning gain
42.	London North Centre	Toss up LPC/CPC
43.	Dartmouth–Cole Harbour	LPC likely hold
44.	Hochelaga	LPC leaning hold
45.	Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook	LPC leaning hold
46.	Edmonton Centre	CPC leaning gain
47.	Skeena–Bulkley Valley	CPC likely gain
48.	Saskatoon West	CPC likely hold
49.	South Okanagan–West Kootenay	CPC likely gain
50.	Edmonton Manning	CPC likely hold
51.	Labrador	Toss up LPC/CPC
52.	University–Rosedale	LPC likely hold
53.	Toronto Centre	LPC likely hold
54.	Guelph	Toss up LPC/CPC
55.	Regina–Lewvan	CPC likely hold
56.	Port Moody–Coquitlam	CPC likely gain
57.	Saskatoon–University	CPC likely hold
58.	Vancouver Centre	LPC leaning hold
59.	Ottawa–Vanier	LPC likely hold