New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe	>99%
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP likely	99%
3.	Vancouver East	NDP likely	98%
4.	Courtenay—Alberni	NDP likely	94%
5.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP leaning	79%
6.	Vancouver Kingsway	Toss up LPC/NDP	56%
7.	Nunavut	Toss up LPC/NDP	51%
8.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	LPC leaning	14%
9.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC likely	7%
10.	Elmwood—Transcona	CPC likely	5%
11.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	CPC likely	5%
12.	North Island—Powell River	CPC likely	3%