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Canada

New Democratic Party



Latest update: May 25, 2025

LeaderJagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 20256.3%
Current vote projection6.3% ± 1.0%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection7 [4-9]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 25, 2025 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada 2.4 seat/% 7 [4-9] 6% ± 1% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × NDP 7 [4-9] May 25, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 1/78 ON 0/122 MB 1/14 SK 0/14 AB 1/37 BC 3/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | May 25, 2025

4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 5.3% 6.3% ± 1.0% Max. 7.3% Probabilities % NDP May 25, 2025

Seat projection | May 25, 2025

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 4 7 Max. 9 Probabilities % NDP May 25, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP likely >99%
2. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP likely 98%
3. Vancouver East NDP likely 95%
4. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 85%
5. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 76%
6. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 55%
7. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 51%
8. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 17%
9. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC leaning 13%
10. Elmwood—Transcona CPC likely 8%
11. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely 8%
12. North Island—Powell River CPC likely 7%
13. Hamilton Centre LPC likely 2%
14. Edmonton Griesbach CPC likely 2%