New Democratic Party
Latest update: September 15, 2024
Leader | Jagmeet Singh |
National popular vote in 2021 | 17.8% |
Current vote projection | 16.4% ± 2.8% |
Current number of MPs | TBD |
Current seat projection | 14 [9-25] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.
Popular vote projection | September 15, 2024
Seat projection | September 15, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Transposed 2021 winner |
Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie | NDP safe | >99% | ||
2. | Vancouver East | NDP safe | >99% | ||
3. | Hamilton Centre | NDP safe | >99% | ||
4. | Vancouver Kingsway | NDP safe | >99% | ||
5. | Edmonton Strathcona | NDP safe | >99% | ||
6. | Victoria | NDP safe | >99% | ||
7. | Winnipeg Centre | NDP likely | 99% | ||
8. | Nunavut | NDP likely | 98% | ||
9. | Windsor West | NDP likely | 97% | ||
10. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | NDP likely | 96% | ||
11. | London—Fanshawe | NDP leaning | 85% | ||
12. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | NDP leaning | 84% | ||
13. | Elmwood—Transcona | Toss up CPC/NDP | 68% | ||
14. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | Toss up CPC/NDP | 63% | ||
15. | Northwest Territories | Toss up LPC/NDP | 42% | ||
16. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | Toss up CPC/NDP | 39% | ||
17. | Burnaby Central | Toss up CPC/NDP | 34% | ||
18. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | LPC leaning | 28% | ||
19. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 26% | ||
20. | Halifax | LPC leaning | 20% | ||
21. | Edmonton Griesbach | CPC leaning | 20% | ||
22. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | LPC leaning | 18% | ||
23. | Hamilton Mountain | CPC leaning | 17% | ||
24. | Spadina—Harbourfront | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 16% | ||
25. | Berthier—Maskinongé | BQ leaning | 16% | ||
26. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ | 16% | ||
27. | Ottawa Centre | LPC leaning | 14% | ||
28. | Davenport | LPC leaning | 13% | ||
29. | London Centre | CPC leaning | 11% | ||
30. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | CPC likely | 9% | ||
31. | St. John’s East | LPC leaning | 7% | ||
32. | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | CPC likely | 6% | ||
33. | Courtenay—Alberni | CPC likely | 6% | ||
34. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | CPC likely | 5% | ||
35. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | LPC leaning | 4% | ||
36. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Toss up LPC/CPC | 4% | ||
37. | Toronto—Danforth | Toss up LPC/CPC | 4% | ||
38. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC | 4% | ||
39. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely | 3% | ||
40. | Edmonton Centre | CPC likely | 2% | ||
41. | Sudbury | CPC likely | 2% | ||
42. | Outremont | LPC likely | 1% |