New Democratic Party

Latest update: February 15, 2026

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

List of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

	Districts and MPs	Current party	Projection
1.	Edmonton Strathcona Heather McPherson	N	NDP likely
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie Alexandre Boulerice	N	NDP likely
3.	Courtenay—Alberni Gord Johns	N	NDP leaning
4.	Winnipeg Centre Leah Gazan	N	Toss up LPC/NDP
5.	Vancouver East Jenny Kwan	N	Toss up LPC/NDP
6.	Vancouver Kingsway Don Davies	N	Toss up LPC/NDP
7.	Nunavut Lori Idlout	N	Toss up LPC/NDP
8.	Elmwood—Transcona Colin Reynolds	C	CPC leaning
9.	Edmonton Griesbach Kerry Diotte	C	CPC leaning
10.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley Ellis Ross	C	CPC leaning
11.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Jeff Kibble	C	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
12.	North Island—Powell River Aaron Gunn	C	CPC leaning
13.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Jake Sawatzky	L	LPC likely
14.	London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman	C	CPC leaning
15.	Windsor West Harbinder Gill	C	CPC leaning
16.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Rebecca Chartrand	L	LPC likely
17.	Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana	L	LPC likely
18.	Berthier—Maskinongé Yves Perron	B	BQ likely
19.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Karim Bardeesy	L	LPC safe
20.	Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo	C	CPC leaning
21.	Saskatoon West Brad Redekopp	C	CPC likely