338Canada | New Democratic Party





Last update: September 20, 2021

LeaderJagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 201916.0%
Current vote projection19.3% ± 3.2%
Current number of MP's24
Current seat projection31 ± 16



Vote Projection | New Democratic Party | September 20, 2021




Seat Projection | New Democratic Party | September 20, 2021




Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Vancouver East NDP safe >99%
2. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe >99%
3. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe >99%
4. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe >99%
5. London–Fanshawe NDP safe >99%
6. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP safe >99%
7. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP safe >99%
8. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP safe >99%
9. Timmins–James Bay NDP safe >99%
10. Victoria NDP safe >99%
11. Hamilton Centre NDP safe >99%
12. Courtenay–Alberni NDP safe >99%
13. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP safe >99%
14. North Island–Powell River NDP safe >99%
15. Burnaby South NDP safe >99%
16. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe >99%
17. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely 99%
18. Elmwood–Transcona NDP likely 99%
19. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 93%
20. Burnaby North–Seymour NDP leaning 87%
21. Hamilton Mountain NDP leaning 80%
22. Windsor West NDP leaning 71%
23. South Okanagan–West Kootenay Toss up CPC/NDP 67%
24. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 65%
25. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 59%
26. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up CPC/NDP 54%
27. Saskatoon West Toss up CPC/NDP 41%
28. Essex Toss up CPC/NDP 39%
29. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP 37%
30. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 37%
31. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up CPC/NDP 35%
32. Kootenay–Columbia Toss up CPC/NDP 33%
33. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/NDP 33%
34. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 31%
35. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 30%
36. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 29%
37. Oshawa CPC leaning 27%
38. Kenora Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 27%
39. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC 26%
40. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning 25%
41. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning 25%
42. Thunder Bay–Rainy River LPC leaning 23%
43. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning 16%
44. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning 16%
45. Surrey–Newton LPC leaning 15%
46. Surrey Centre LPC leaning 14%
47. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning 13%
48. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 13%
49. Yukon LPC leaning 12%
50. Davenport LPC leaning 11%
51. St. John’s East LPC leaning 11%
52. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC leaning 10%
53. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely 10%
54. Sudbury LPC likely 9%
55. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely 9%
56. Toronto–Danforth LPC likely 8%
57. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning 7%
58. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning 5%
59. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC likely 5%
60. Ottawa Centre LPC likely 4%
61. Spadina–Fort York LPC likely 4%
62. Northwest Territories LPC likely 3%
63. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ likely 3%
64. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ 3%
65. Edmonton Manning CPC likely 2%
66. Winnipeg North LPC likely 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Vancouver East NDP safe
2. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe
3. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe
4. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe
5. London–Fanshawe NDP safe
6. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP safe
7. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP safe
8. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP safe
9. Timmins–James Bay NDP safe
10. Victoria NDP safe
11. Hamilton Centre NDP safe
12. Courtenay–Alberni NDP safe
13. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP safe
14. North Island–Powell River NDP safe
15. Burnaby South NDP safe
16. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe
17. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely
18. Elmwood–Transcona NDP likely
19. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely
20. Burnaby North–Seymour NDP leaning
21. Hamilton Mountain NDP leaning
22. Windsor West NDP leaning
23. South Okanagan–West Kootenay Toss up CPC/NDP
24. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP
25. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP
26. Port Moody–Coquitlam Toss up CPC/NDP
27. Saskatoon West Toss up CPC/NDP
28. Essex Toss up CPC/NDP
29. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP
30. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
31. Edmonton Riverbend Toss up CPC/NDP
32. Kootenay–Columbia Toss up CPC/NDP
33. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/NDP
34. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
35. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
36. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
37. Oshawa CPC leaning
38. Kenora Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
39. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC
40. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning
41. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek LPC leaning
42. Thunder Bay–Rainy River LPC leaning
43. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning
44. Saskatoon–University CPC leaning
45. Surrey–Newton LPC leaning
46. Surrey Centre LPC leaning
47. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning
48. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
49. Yukon LPC leaning
50. Davenport LPC leaning
51. St. John’s East LPC leaning
52. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC leaning
53. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely
54. Sudbury LPC likely
55. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely
56. Toronto–Danforth LPC likely
57. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC leaning
58. Sault Ste. Marie LPC leaning
59. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC likely
60. Ottawa Centre LPC likely
61. Spadina–Fort York LPC likely
62. Northwest Territories LPC likely
63. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ likely
64. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ
65. Edmonton Manning CPC likely
66. Winnipeg North LPC likely



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