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Canada

New Democratic Party





Last update: October 2, 2022

LeaderJagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 202117.8%
Current vote projection19.8% ± 3.2%
Current number of MP's25
Current seat projection28 [16-49]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe hold >99%
2. Vancouver East NDP safe hold >99%
3. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold >99%
4. Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold >99%
5. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold >99%
6. Windsor West NDP safe hold >99%
7. London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold >99%
8. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe hold >99%
9. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe hold >99%
10. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP safe hold >99%
11. Victoria NDP safe hold >99%
12. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP likely hold 99%
13. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely hold 99%
14. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP likely hold 99%
15. Nunavut NDP likely hold 98%
16. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely hold 98%
17. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold 97%
18. Courtenay–Alberni NDP likely hold 96%
19. Edmonton Griesbach NDP likely hold 96%
20. Burnaby South NDP likely hold 91%
21. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP leaning hold 77%
22. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP leaning hold 77%
23. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning hold 75%
24. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP 61%
25. North Island–Powell River Toss up CPC/NDP 61%
26. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 58%
27. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP 56%
28. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP 56%
29. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 47%
30. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP 46%
31. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 43%
32. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 41%
33. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP 38%
34. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 35%
35. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/NDP 34%
36. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 31%
37. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 30%
38. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/NDP 30%
39. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP 30%
40. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 28%
41. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 28%
42. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 26%
43. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 24%
44. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 21%
45. Saskatoon West CPC leaning hold 21%
46. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ leaning hold 19%
47. Yukon LPC leaning hold 19%
48. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning hold 17%
49. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning hold 14%
50. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning hold 12%
51. Essex CPC leaning hold 11%
52. Niagara Centre CPC leaning gain 10%
53. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely hold 10%
54. St. John’s East LPC likely hold 9%
55. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 8%
56. Outremont LPC likely hold 8%
57. Kootenay–Columbia CPC likely hold 7%
58. London West CPC leaning gain 7%
59. Kenora CPC likely hold 6%
60. Oshawa CPC likely hold 5%
61. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold 3%
62. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold 3%
63. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold 2%
64. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 2%
65. Labrador LPC likely hold 2%
66. Vancouver Centre LPC likely hold 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe hold
2. Vancouver East NDP safe hold
3. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold
4. Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold
5. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold
6. Windsor West NDP safe hold
7. London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold
8. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe hold
9. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe hold
10. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP safe hold
11. Victoria NDP safe hold
12. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP likely hold
13. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely hold
14. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP likely hold
15. Nunavut NDP likely hold
16. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely hold
17. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely hold
18. Courtenay–Alberni NDP likely hold
19. Edmonton Griesbach NDP likely hold
20. Burnaby South NDP likely hold
21. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP leaning hold
22. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP leaning hold
23. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP leaning hold
24. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
25. North Island–Powell River Toss up CPC/NDP
26. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
27. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP
28. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
29. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
30. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/NDP
31. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
32. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
33. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
34. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
35. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/NDP
36. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
37. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
38. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/NDP
39. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP
40. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
41. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
42. Edmonton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
43. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
44. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
45. Saskatoon West CPC leaning hold
46. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ leaning hold
47. Yukon LPC leaning hold
48. Edmonton Manning CPC leaning hold
49. Regina–Lewvan CPC leaning hold
50. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC leaning hold
51. Essex CPC leaning hold
52. Niagara Centre CPC leaning gain
53. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely hold
54. St. John’s East LPC likely hold
55. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
56. Outremont LPC likely hold
57. Kootenay–Columbia CPC likely hold
58. London West CPC leaning gain
59. Kenora CPC likely hold
60. Oshawa CPC likely hold
61. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold
62. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold
63. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
64. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC
65. Labrador LPC likely hold
66. Vancouver Centre LPC likely hold