New Democratic Party

Latest update: September 15, 2024

Leader	Jagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 2021	17.8%
Current vote projection	16.4% ± 2.8%
Current number of MPs	TBD
Current seat projection	14 [9-25]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | September 15, 2024

Seat projection | September 15, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe	>99%
2.	Vancouver East	NDP safe	>99%
3.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe	>99%
4.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe	>99%
5.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe	>99%
6.	Victoria	NDP safe	>99%
7.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP likely	99%
8.	Nunavut	NDP likely	98%
9.	Windsor West	NDP likely	97%
10.	Churchill—Kewatinook Aski	NDP likely	96%
11.	London—Fanshawe	NDP leaning	85%
12.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP leaning	84%
13.	Elmwood—Transcona	Toss up CPC/NDP	68%
14.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	Toss up CPC/NDP	63%
15.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP	42%
16.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP	39%
17.	Burnaby Central	Toss up CPC/NDP	34%
18.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	LPC leaning	28%
19.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	26%
20.	Halifax	LPC leaning	20%
21.	Edmonton Griesbach	CPC leaning	20%
22.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LPC leaning	18%
23.	Hamilton Mountain	CPC leaning	17%
24.	Spadina—Harbourfront	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	16%
25.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ leaning	16%
26.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ	16%
27.	Ottawa Centre	LPC leaning	14%
28.	Davenport	LPC leaning	13%
29.	London Centre	CPC leaning	11%
30.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC likely	9%
31.	St. John’s East	LPC leaning	7%
32.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC likely	6%
33.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC likely	6%
34.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC likely	5%
35.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	LPC leaning	4%
36.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC	4%
37.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/CPC	4%
38.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC	4%
39.	Saskatoon West	CPC likely	3%
40.	Edmonton Centre	CPC likely	2%
41.	Sudbury	CPC likely	2%
42.	Outremont	LPC likely	1%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe
2.	Vancouver East	NDP safe
3.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe
4.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe
5.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe
6.	Victoria	NDP safe
7.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP likely
8.	Nunavut	NDP likely
9.	Windsor West	NDP likely
10.	Churchill—Kewatinook Aski	NDP likely
11.	London—Fanshawe	NDP leaning
12.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP leaning
13.	Elmwood—Transcona	Toss up CPC/NDP
14.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	Toss up CPC/NDP
15.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP
16.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP
17.	Burnaby Central	Toss up CPC/NDP
18.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	LPC leaning
19.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
20.	Halifax	LPC leaning
21.	Edmonton Griesbach	CPC leaning
22.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LPC leaning
23.	Hamilton Mountain	CPC leaning
24.	Spadina—Harbourfront	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
25.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ leaning
26.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
27.	Ottawa Centre	LPC leaning
28.	Davenport	LPC leaning
29.	London Centre	CPC leaning
30.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC likely
31.	St. John’s East	LPC leaning
32.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC likely
33.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC likely
34.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC likely
35.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	LPC leaning
36.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC
37.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/CPC
38.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC
39.	Saskatoon West	CPC likely
40.	Edmonton Centre	CPC likely
41.	Sudbury	CPC likely
42.	Outremont	LPC likely