338Canada.com - New Democratic Party






338Canada Projection for the New Democratic Party

Latest update: October 23, 2019



Regional Popular Vote Projection






Regional Seat Projection






National Seat Projection





Ordered list of districts

(Percentages indicate the odds of winning the districts according to the 338Canada Projection of October 23, 2019.)

#1 59035 Vancouver East Safe NDP>99%
#2 59038 Vancouver Kingsway Safe NDP>99%
#3 59019 New Westminster–Burnaby Safe NDP>99%
#4 35107 Timmins–James Bay Likely NDP>99%
#5 59028 Skeena–Bulkley Valley Likely NDP>99%
#6 59003 Burnaby South Likely NDP>99%
#7 35002 Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing Likely NDP98%
#8 35035 Hamilton Centre Likely NDP97%
#9 59009 Courtenay–Alberni Likely NDP97%
#10 46003 Churchill–Keewatinook Aski Likely NDP96%
#11 35116 Windsor–Tecumseh Likely NDP95%
#12 35026 Essex Likely NDP94%
#13 59023 Port Moody–Coquitlam Likely NDP93%
#14 59010 Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Likely NDP92%
#15 35037 Hamilton Mountain Leaning NDP88%
#16 59029 South Okanagan–West Kootenay Leaning NDP88%
#17 59037 North Island–Powell River Leaning NDP88%
#18 59041 Victoria Leaning NDP77%
#19 24064 Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie Leaning NDP76%
#20 59026 Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke Leaning NDP74%
#21 35109 Toronto–Danforth Leaning NDP71%
#22 35069 Nickel Belt Leaning NDP70%
#23 10006 St. John's East Toss up65%
#24 35081 Parkdale–High Park Toss up63%
#25 47012 Saskatoon West Toss up62%
#26 35051 London–Fanshawe Toss up61%
#27 35117 Windsor West Toss up60%
#28 35018 Davenport Toss up60%
#29 59002 Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up60%
#30 48019 Edmonton Strathcona Toss up59%
#31 35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up55%
#32 35042 Kenora Toss up54%
#33 35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up54%
#34 59015 Kootenay–Columbia Toss up53%
#35 47003 Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Toss up47%
#36 59032 Surrey Centre Toss up47%
#37 24012 Berthier–Maskinongé Toss up45%
#38 35091 Sarnia–Lambton Toss up44%
#39 59018 Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up42%
#40 13001 Acadie–Bathurst Toss up40%
#41 59022 Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up39%
#42 61001 Northwest Territories Toss up36%
#43 12008 Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up33%
#44 12005 Halifax Toss up32%
#45 35103 Sudbury Toss up30%
#46 62001 Nunavut Toss up29%
#47 46011 Winnipeg Centre Leaning LPC29%
#48 35120 York South–Weston Leaning LPC29%
#49 59008 Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Toss up27%
#50 47007 Regina–Lewvan Leaning CPC26%
#51 35066 Niagara Centre Leaning LPC22%
#52 12004 Dartmouth–Cole Harbour Leaning LPC18%
#53 46005 Elmwood–Transcona Leaning CPC18%
#54 10007 St. John's South–Mount Pearl Leaning LPC15%
#55 24073 Sherbrooke Toss up15%
#56 35007 Beaches–East York Leaning LPC13%
#57 59013 Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Leaning CPC11%
#58 59020 North Okanagan–Shuswap Likely CPC9%
#59 35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North Likely LPC8%
#60 48014 Edmonton Centre Likely CPC7%
#61 35092 Sault Ste. Marie Leaning LPC6%
#62 35110 University–Rosedale Likely LPC6%
#63 35078 Ottawa–Vanier Likely LPC6%
#64 35075 Ottawa Centre Likely LPC6%
#65 60001 Yukon Toss up5%