New Democratic Party

Latest update: November 17, 2024

Leader	Jagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 2021	17.8%
Current vote projection	17.5% ± 2.9%
Current number of MPs	TBD
Current seat projection	17 [10-30]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024

Seat projection | November 17, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe	>99%
2.	Vancouver East	NDP safe	>99%
3.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe	>99%
4.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe	>99%
5.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe	>99%
6.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe	>99%
7.	Victoria	NDP likely	>99%
8.	Windsor West	NDP likely	99%
9.	Nunavut	NDP likely	98%
10.	Churchill—Kewatinook Aski	NDP likely	93%
11.	London—Fanshawe	NDP likely	93%
12.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP leaning	89%
13.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	NDP leaning	74%
14.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	Toss up LPC/NDP	66%
15.	Spadina—Harbourfront	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	60%
16.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	Toss up LPC/NDP	56%
17.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP	54%
18.	Davenport	Toss up LPC/NDP	45%
19.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP	44%
20.	Burnaby Central	Toss up CPC/NDP	43%
21.	Elmwood—Transcona	Toss up CPC/NDP	41%
22.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up CPC/NDP	31%
23.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	31%
24.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	31%
25.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP	30%
26.	Ottawa Centre	LPC leaning	25%
27.	Halifax	LPC leaning	24%
28.	London Centre	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	23%
29.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	16%
30.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC leaning	14%
31.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC leaning	14%
32.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC leaning	13%
33.	Outremont	LPC leaning	12%
34.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	10%
35.	St. John’s East	LPC leaning	10%
36.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ	10%
37.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC leaning	10%
38.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	10%
39.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	6%
40.	Sudbury	CPC likely	6%
41.	University—Rosedale	LPC likely	4%
42.	Edmonton Centre	CPC likely	3%
43.	Papineau	LPC likely	2%
44.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	LPC likely	2%
45.	Vancouver Granville	CPC leaning	1%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe
2.	Vancouver East	NDP safe
3.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe
4.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe
5.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe
6.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe
7.	Victoria	NDP likely
8.	Windsor West	NDP likely
9.	Nunavut	NDP likely
10.	Churchill—Kewatinook Aski	NDP likely
11.	London—Fanshawe	NDP likely
12.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP leaning
13.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	NDP leaning
14.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	Toss up LPC/NDP
15.	Spadina—Harbourfront	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
16.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	Toss up LPC/NDP
17.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP
18.	Davenport	Toss up LPC/NDP
19.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP
20.	Burnaby Central	Toss up CPC/NDP
21.	Elmwood—Transcona	Toss up CPC/NDP
22.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up CPC/NDP
23.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
24.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
25.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP
26.	Ottawa Centre	LPC leaning
27.	Halifax	LPC leaning
28.	London Centre	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
29.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
30.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC leaning
31.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC leaning
32.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC leaning
33.	Outremont	LPC leaning
34.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35.	St. John’s East	LPC leaning
36.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
37.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC leaning
38.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
39.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely
40.	Sudbury	CPC likely
41.	University—Rosedale	LPC likely
42.	Edmonton Centre	CPC likely
43.	Papineau	LPC likely
44.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	LPC likely
45.	Vancouver Granville	CPC leaning