New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe	>99%
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP likely	99%
3.	Courtenay—Alberni	NDP likely	95%
4.	Vancouver East	NDP likely	95%
5.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP likely	92%
6.	Elmwood—Transcona	NDP leaning	77%
7.	Nunavut	NDP leaning	76%
8.	Vancouver Kingsway	Toss up LPC/NDP	68%
9.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP	54%
10.	Hamilton Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	53%
11.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	Toss up CPC/NDP	51%
12.	London—Fanshawe	Toss up CPC/NDP	45%
13.	North Island—Powell River	Toss up CPC/NDP	42%
14.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	Toss up CPC/NDP	41%
15.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	Toss up LPC/NDP	38%
16.	Windsor West	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	29%
17.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	LPC leaning	17%
18.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	6%