New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe	>99%
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP likely	>99%
3.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP likely	94%
4.	Vancouver East	NDP likely	93%
5.	Courtenay—Alberni	NDP leaning	89%
6.	Nunavut	NDP leaning	88%
7.	Vancouver Kingsway	Toss up LPC/NDP	62%
8.	Elmwood—Transcona	Toss up CPC/NDP	53%
9.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP	35%
10.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	Toss up CPC/NDP	34%
11.	Hamilton Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	31%
12.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	30%
13.	London—Fanshawe	CPC leaning	29%
14.	Windsor West	Toss up CPC/NDP	28%
15.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	CPC leaning	27%
16.	North Island—Powell River	CPC leaning	25%
17.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	LPC leaning	21%