New Democratic Party

Latest update: July 21, 2024

Leader	Jagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 2021	17.8%
Current vote projection	17.2% ± 2.9%
Current number of MPs	TBD
Current seat projection	17 [11-30]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024

Seat projection | July 21, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Vancouver East	NDP safe	>99%
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe	>99%
3.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe	>99%
4.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe	>99%
5.	Victoria	NDP safe	>99%
6.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe	>99%
7.	Windsor West	NDP safe	>99%
8.	Nunavut	NDP likely	99%
9.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP likely	98%
10.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP likely	98%
11.	London—Fanshawe	NDP likely	96%
12.	Elmwood—Transcona	NDP likely	93%
13.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	NDP likely	92%
14.	Churchill—Kewatinook Aski	NDP likely	92%
15.	Burnaby Central	Toss up CPC/NDP	67%
16.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP	64%
17.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP	62%
18.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	Toss up LPC/NDP	50%
19.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up CPC/NDP	38%
20.	Spadina—Harbourfront	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	36%
21.	Ottawa Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	33%
22.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	Toss up CPC/NDP	33%
23.	Halifax	Toss up LPC/NDP	30%
24.	London Centre	Toss up CPC/NDP	30%
25.	Davenport	LPC leaning	29%
26.	Yukon	Toss up CPC/NDP	28%
27.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LPC leaning	21%
28.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC leaning	19%
29.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC leaning	17%
30.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	14%
31.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC leaning	14%
32.	Edmonton Griesbach	CPC leaning	14%
33.	St. John’s East	LPC leaning	14%
34.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	14%
35.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	14%
36.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	LPC leaning	9%
37.	Vancouver Granville	CPC leaning	9%
38.	Sudbury	CPC likely	8%
39.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	7%
40.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby	Toss up LPC/CPC	6%
41.	Vancouver Centre	Toss up LPC/CPC	5%
42.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	LPC leaning	3%
43.	Labrador	Toss up LPC/CPC	3%
44.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	LPC likely	2%
45.	Outremont	LPC likely	2%
46.	Edmonton Centre	CPC likely	1%
47.	Surrey Centre	LPC leaning	1%
48.	University—Rosedale	LPC likely	1%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Vancouver East	NDP safe
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe
3.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe
4.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe
5.	Victoria	NDP safe
6.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe
7.	Windsor West	NDP safe
8.	Nunavut	NDP likely
9.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP likely
10.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP likely
11.	London—Fanshawe	NDP likely
12.	Elmwood—Transcona	NDP likely
13.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	NDP likely
14.	Churchill—Kewatinook Aski	NDP likely
15.	Burnaby Central	Toss up CPC/NDP
16.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP
17.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP
18.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	Toss up LPC/NDP
19.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up CPC/NDP
20.	Spadina—Harbourfront	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
21.	Ottawa Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP
22.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	Toss up CPC/NDP
23.	Halifax	Toss up LPC/NDP
24.	London Centre	Toss up CPC/NDP
25.	Davenport	LPC leaning
26.	Yukon	Toss up CPC/NDP
27.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LPC leaning
28.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC leaning
29.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC leaning
30.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
31.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC leaning
32.	Edmonton Griesbach	CPC leaning
33.	St. John’s East	LPC leaning
34.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
36.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	LPC leaning
37.	Vancouver Granville	CPC leaning
38.	Sudbury	CPC likely
39.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely
40.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby	Toss up LPC/CPC
41.	Vancouver Centre	Toss up LPC/CPC
42.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	LPC leaning
43.	Labrador	Toss up LPC/CPC
44.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	LPC likely
45.	Outremont	LPC likely
46.	Edmonton Centre	CPC likely
47.	Surrey Centre	LPC leaning
48.	University—Rosedale	LPC likely