New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe	>99%
2.	Vancouver East	NDP safe	>99%
3.	Hamilton Centre	NDP likely	99%
4.	Victoria	NDP likely	97%
5.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP likely	96%
6.	Nunavut	NDP likely	93%
7.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP likely	92%
8.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP leaning	88%
9.	Windsor West	NDP leaning	86%
10.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	Toss up CPC/NDP	67%
11.	London—Fanshawe	Toss up CPC/NDP	62%
12.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	Toss up CPC/NDP	45%
13.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	43%
14.	Elmwood—Transcona	Toss up CPC/NDP	32%
15.	Burnaby Central	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	20%
16.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	CPC leaning	18%
17.	Northwest Territories	LPC leaning	17%
18.	Edmonton Griesbach	CPC likely	8%
19.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC	7%
20.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LPC likely	6%
21.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC likely	4%
22.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	LPC leaning	3%
23.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC likely	3%
24.	Spadina—Harbourfront	LPC leaning	3%
25.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	2%
26.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	LPC leaning	1%
27.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up LPC/CPC	1%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe
2.	Vancouver East	NDP safe
3.	Hamilton Centre	NDP likely
4.	Victoria	NDP likely
5.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP likely
6.	Nunavut	NDP likely
7.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP likely
8.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP leaning
9.	Windsor West	NDP leaning
10.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	Toss up CPC/NDP
11.	London—Fanshawe	Toss up CPC/NDP
12.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	Toss up CPC/NDP
13.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
14.	Elmwood—Transcona	Toss up CPC/NDP
15.	Burnaby Central	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
16.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	CPC leaning
17.	Northwest Territories	LPC leaning
18.	Edmonton Griesbach	CPC likely
19.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC
20.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LPC likely
21.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC likely
22.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	LPC leaning
23.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC likely
24.	Spadina—Harbourfront	LPC leaning
25.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely
26.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	LPC leaning
27.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up LPC/CPC