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Canada

New Democratic Party



Latest update: September 28, 2025

LeaderDon Davies (interim)
National popular vote in 20256.3%
Current vote projection7.9% ± 2.1%
Current number of MPs7
Current seat projection8 [4-15]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 28, 2025 20 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada 2.6 seat/% 8 [4-15] 8% ± 2% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × NDP 8 [4-15] September 28, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 1/78 ON 0/122 MB 2/14 SK 0/14 AB 1/37 BC 3/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | September 28, 2025

3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 5.8% 2025 6.3% 7.9% ± 2.1% Max. 10.0% Probabilities % NDP September 28, 2025

Seat projection | September 28, 2025

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 4 2021 7 seats 8 Max. 15 Probabilities % NDP September 28, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe >99%
2. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP likely >99%
3. Vancouver East NDP likely 94%
4. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 93%
5. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 88%
6. Nunavut NDP leaning 87%
7. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 63%
8. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 54%
9. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 47%
10. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 30%
11. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 29%
12. Hamilton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 28%
13. London—Fanshawe CPC leaning 26%
14. Windsor West CPC leaning 25%
15. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 24%
16. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 22%
17. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC leaning 18%