New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP likely	>99%
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP likely	95%
3.	Vancouver East	NDP likely	94%
4.	Courtenay—Alberni	NDP leaning	80%
5.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP leaning	78%
6.	Vancouver Kingsway	Toss up LPC/NDP	67%
7.	Nunavut	Toss up LPC/NDP	61%
8.	Elmwood—Transcona	Toss up CPC/NDP	42%
9.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	31%
10.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC leaning	25%
11.	Edmonton Griesbach	CPC leaning	22%
12.	Hamilton Centre	LPC leaning	18%
13.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	CPC leaning	18%
14.	North Island—Powell River	CPC leaning	18%
15.	Windsor West	CPC leaning	11%
16.	London—Fanshawe	CPC leaning	7%
17.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	LPC likely	3%