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Canada

New Democratic Party



Latest update: September 3, 2023

LeaderJagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 202117.8%
Current vote projection18.3% ± 3.1%
Current number of MP's25
Current seat projection21 [13-35]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 3, 2023 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada ©2023 3.7 seat/% 21 [13-35] 18% ± 3% 2019 2021 Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × NDP 21 [13-35] September 3, 2023 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 1/78 ON 8/121 MB 3/14 SK 0/14 AB 2/34 BC 6/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | September 3, 2023

11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 15.2% 2021 17.8% 18.3% ± 3.1% Max. 21.4% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | September 3, 2023

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 13 21 2021 25 seats Max. 35 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold >99%
2. Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold >99%
3. Vancouver East NDP safe hold >99%
4. Windsor West NDP safe hold >99%
5. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe hold >99%
6. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold >99%
7. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe hold >99%
8. Winnipeg Centre NDP safe hold >99%
9. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP safe hold >99%
10. Victoria NDP safe hold >99%
11. London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold >99%
12. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe hold >99%
13. Nunavut NDP likely hold 98%
14. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold 95%
15. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP likely hold 92%
16. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold 77%
17. Timmins–James Bay NDP leaning hold 75%
18. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 68%
19. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP 62%
20. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP 57%
21. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 49%
22. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 45%
23. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 44%
24. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 41%
25. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 40%
26. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 33%
27. Northwest Territories LPC leaning hold 30%
28. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up CPC/NDP 29%
29. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC leaning hold 28%
30. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 24%
31. Courtenay–Alberni CPC leaning gain 22%
32. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 19%
33. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold 18%
34. Outremont LPC leaning hold 13%
35. Nickel Belt CPC leaning gain 12%
36. North Island–Powell River CPC likely gain 10%
37. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC 9%
38. Sudbury CPC leaning gain 9%
39. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC leaning gain 9%
40. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC 7%
41. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC leaning gain 7%
42. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 7%
43. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC likely hold 6%
44. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold 6%
45. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC leaning hold 4%
46. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain 4%
47. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain 4%
48. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold 3%
49. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC likely gain 3%
50. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold 3%
51. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC 2%
52. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold 2%
53. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold 2%
54. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC 2%
55. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold 2%
56. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain 2%
57. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 2%
58. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold 1%
59. Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold
2. Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold
3. Vancouver East NDP safe hold
4. Windsor West NDP safe hold
5. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe hold
6. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold
7. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe hold
8. Winnipeg Centre NDP safe hold
9. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP safe hold
10. Victoria NDP safe hold
11. London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold
12. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe hold
13. Nunavut NDP likely hold
14. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold
15. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP likely hold
16. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold
17. Timmins–James Bay NDP leaning hold
18. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP
19. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
20. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
21. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
22. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
23. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
24. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
25. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP
26. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
27. Northwest Territories LPC leaning hold
28. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up CPC/NDP
29. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC leaning hold
30. Thunder Bay–Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
31. Courtenay–Alberni CPC leaning gain
32. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
33. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold
34. Outremont LPC leaning hold
35. Nickel Belt CPC leaning gain
36. North Island–Powell River CPC likely gain
37. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/CPC
38. Sudbury CPC leaning gain
39. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC leaning gain
40. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC
41. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC leaning gain
42. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
43. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC likely hold
44. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold
45. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC leaning hold
46. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain
47. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain
48. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold
49. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC likely gain
50. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold
51. Labrador Toss up LPC/CPC
52. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold
53. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
54. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
55. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold
56. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain
57. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
58. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold
59. Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold