New Democratic Party

Last update: February 5, 2023
Leader | Jagmeet Singh |
National popular vote in 2021 | 17.8% |
Current vote projection | 18.3% ± 3.3% |
Current number of MP's | 25 |
Current seat projection | 20 [13-30] |
Popular vote projection | February 5, 2023
Seat projection | February 5, 2023
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
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1. | Edmonton Strathcona | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
2. | Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
3. | Elmwood–Transcona | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
4. | Vancouver East | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
5. | Hamilton Centre | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
6. | Windsor West | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
7. | Winnipeg Centre | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
8. | Churchill–Keewatinook Aski | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
9. | New Westminster–Burnaby | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
10. | London–Fanshawe | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
11. | Vancouver Kingsway | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
12. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 99% |
13. | Victoria | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 98% |
14. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 88% |
15. | Nunavut | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 85% |
16. | Edmonton Griesbach | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 82% |
17. | Timmins–James Bay | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 76% |
18. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 74% |
19. | Burnaby South | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 70% |
20. | Courtenay–Alberni | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/NDP | 58% |
21. | Halifax | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 42% |
22. | Northwest Territories | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 24% |
23. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 22% |
24. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 21% |
25. | South Okanagan–West Kootenay | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 20% |
26. | Yukon | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 17% |
27. | North Island–Powell River | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 17% |
28. | St. John’s East | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 13% |
29. | Hamilton Mountain | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 13% |
30. | Windsor–Tecumseh | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 12% |
31. | Edmonton Manning | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 10% |
32. | Edmonton Centre | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 10% |
33. | Vancouver Granville | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 8% |
34. | Outremont | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 7% |
35. | Davenport | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 6% |
36. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/GPC | 6% |
37. | Parkdale–High Park | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 5% |
38. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 5% |
39. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 4% |
40. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 4% |
41. | Ottawa Centre | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 4% |
42. | Toronto–Danforth | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 3% |
43. | Saskatoon West | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 3% |
44. | Spadina–Fort York | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 3% |
45. | Regina–Lewvan | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 3% |
46. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 3% |
47. | Hochelaga | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 3% |
48. | Sudbury | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 3% |
49. | London North Centre | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 3% |
50. | Saskatoon–University | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 2% |
51. | Nickel Belt | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 2% |
52. | Labrador | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 2% |
53. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 2% |
54. | Kingston and the Islands | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 1% |
55. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
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1. | Edmonton Strathcona | NDP safe hold |
2. | Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | NDP safe hold |
3. | Elmwood–Transcona | NDP safe hold |
4. | Vancouver East | NDP safe hold |
5. | Hamilton Centre | NDP safe hold |
6. | Windsor West | NDP safe hold |
7. | Winnipeg Centre | NDP safe hold |
8. | Churchill–Keewatinook Aski | NDP safe hold |
9. | New Westminster–Burnaby | NDP safe hold |
10. | London–Fanshawe | NDP safe hold |
11. | Vancouver Kingsway | NDP safe hold |
12. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | NDP likely hold |
13. | Victoria | NDP likely hold |
14. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | NDP leaning hold |
15. | Nunavut | NDP leaning hold |
16. | Edmonton Griesbach | NDP leaning hold |
17. | Timmins–James Bay | NDP leaning hold |
18. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | NDP leaning hold |
19. | Burnaby South | Toss up LPC/NDP |
20. | Courtenay–Alberni | Toss up CPC/NDP |
21. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP |
22. | Northwest Territories | LPC leaning hold |
23. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | CPC leaning gain |
24. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | CPC leaning gain |
25. | South Okanagan–West Kootenay | CPC leaning gain |
26. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
27. | North Island–Powell River | CPC leaning gain |
28. | St. John’s East | LPC leaning hold |
29. | Hamilton Mountain | LPC leaning hold |
30. | Windsor–Tecumseh | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
31. | Edmonton Manning | CPC likely hold |
32. | Edmonton Centre | CPC leaning gain |
33. | Vancouver Granville | LPC leaning hold |
34. | Outremont | LPC likely hold |
35. | Davenport | LPC likely hold |
36. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | Toss up CPC/GPC |
37. | Parkdale–High Park | LPC likely hold |
38. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | LPC leaning hold |
39. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | LPC likely hold |
40. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | Toss up LPC/CPC |
41. | Ottawa Centre | LPC likely hold |
42. | Toronto–Danforth | LPC likely hold |
43. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely hold |
44. | Spadina–Fort York | LPC likely hold |
45. | Regina–Lewvan | CPC likely hold |
46. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | CPC likely hold |
47. | Hochelaga | LPC likely hold |
48. | Sudbury | Toss up LPC/CPC |
49. | London North Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC |
50. | Saskatoon–University | CPC likely hold |
51. | Nickel Belt | Toss up LPC/CPC |
52. | Labrador | LPC leaning hold |
53. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | LPC likely hold |
54. | Kingston and the Islands | LPC likely hold |
55. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | Toss up LPC/CPC |