New Democratic Party

Latest update: September 3, 2023
Leader | Jagmeet Singh |
National popular vote in 2021 | 17.8% |
Current vote projection | 18.3% ± 3.1% |
Current number of MP's | 25 |
Current seat projection | 21 [13-35] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one
over narrow vote intervals.
Popular vote projection | September 3, 2023
Seat projection | September 3, 2023
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
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1. | Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
2. | Hamilton Centre | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
3. | Vancouver East | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
4. | Windsor West | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
5. | Edmonton Strathcona | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
6. | Elmwood–Transcona | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
7. | Vancouver Kingsway | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
8. | Winnipeg Centre | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
9. | Churchill–Keewatinook Aski | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
10. | Victoria | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
11. | London–Fanshawe | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
12. | New Westminster–Burnaby | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
13. | Nunavut | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 98% |
14. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 95% |
15. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 92% |
16. | Burnaby South | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 77% |
17. | Timmins–James Bay | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 75% |
18. | Edmonton Griesbach | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/NDP | 68% |
19. | Davenport | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 62% |
20. | Parkdale–High Park | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 57% |
21. | Toronto–Danforth | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 49% |
22. | Spadina–Fort York | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 45% |
23. | Hamilton Mountain | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 44% |
24. | Ottawa Centre | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 41% |
25. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/NDP | 40% |
26. | Halifax | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 33% |
27. | Northwest Territories | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 30% |
28. | Windsor–Tecumseh | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/NDP | 29% |
29. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 28% |
30. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 24% |
31. | Courtenay–Alberni | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 22% |
32. | Kingston and the Islands | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 19% |
33. | St. John’s East | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 18% |
34. | Outremont | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 13% |
35. | Nickel Belt | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 12% |
36. | North Island–Powell River | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 10% |
37. | Vancouver Granville | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 9% |
38. | Sudbury | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 9% |
39. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 9% |
40. | Yukon | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 7% |
41. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 7% |
42. | London North Centre | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 7% |
43. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 6% |
44. | Hochelaga | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 6% |
45. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 4% |
46. | Edmonton Centre | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 4% |
47. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 4% |
48. | Saskatoon West | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 3% |
49. | South Okanagan–West Kootenay | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 3% |
50. | Edmonton Manning | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 3% |
51. | Labrador | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 2% |
52. | University–Rosedale | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 2% |
53. | Toronto Centre | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 2% |
54. | Guelph | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 2% |
55. | Regina–Lewvan | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 2% |
56. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | ![]() |
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CPC likely gain | 2% |
57. | Saskatoon–University | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 2% |
58. | Vancouver Centre | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 1% |
59. | Ottawa–Vanier | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | NDP safe hold |
2. | Hamilton Centre | NDP safe hold |
3. | Vancouver East | NDP safe hold |
4. | Windsor West | NDP safe hold |
5. | Edmonton Strathcona | NDP safe hold |
6. | Elmwood–Transcona | NDP safe hold |
7. | Vancouver Kingsway | NDP safe hold |
8. | Winnipeg Centre | NDP safe hold |
9. | Churchill–Keewatinook Aski | NDP safe hold |
10. | Victoria | NDP safe hold |
11. | London–Fanshawe | NDP safe hold |
12. | New Westminster–Burnaby | NDP safe hold |
13. | Nunavut | NDP likely hold |
14. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | NDP likely hold |
15. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | NDP likely hold |
16. | Burnaby South | NDP leaning hold |
17. | Timmins–James Bay | NDP leaning hold |
18. | Edmonton Griesbach | Toss up CPC/NDP |
19. | Davenport | Toss up LPC/NDP |
20. | Parkdale–High Park | Toss up LPC/NDP |
21. | Toronto–Danforth | Toss up LPC/NDP |
22. | Spadina–Fort York | Toss up LPC/NDP |
23. | Hamilton Mountain | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
24. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP |
25. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | Toss up CPC/NDP |
26. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP |
27. | Northwest Territories | LPC leaning hold |
28. | Windsor–Tecumseh | Toss up CPC/NDP |
29. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | LPC leaning hold |
30. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
31. | Courtenay–Alberni | CPC leaning gain |
32. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
33. | St. John’s East | LPC leaning hold |
34. | Outremont | LPC leaning hold |
35. | Nickel Belt | CPC leaning gain |
36. | North Island–Powell River | CPC likely gain |
37. | Vancouver Granville | Toss up LPC/CPC |
38. | Sudbury | CPC leaning gain |
39. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | CPC leaning gain |
40. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC |
41. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | CPC leaning gain |
42. | London North Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC |
43. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | LPC likely hold |
44. | Hochelaga | LPC leaning hold |
45. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | LPC leaning hold |
46. | Edmonton Centre | CPC leaning gain |
47. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | CPC likely gain |
48. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely hold |
49. | South Okanagan–West Kootenay | CPC likely gain |
50. | Edmonton Manning | CPC likely hold |
51. | Labrador | Toss up LPC/CPC |
52. | University–Rosedale | LPC likely hold |
53. | Toronto Centre | LPC likely hold |
54. | Guelph | Toss up LPC/CPC |
55. | Regina–Lewvan | CPC likely hold |
56. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | CPC likely gain |
57. | Saskatoon–University | CPC likely hold |
58. | Vancouver Centre | LPC leaning hold |
59. | Ottawa–Vanier | LPC likely hold |