New Democratic Party

Last update: May 22, 2022
Leader | Jagmeet Singh |
National popular vote in 2021 | 17.8% |
Current vote projection | 19.6% ± 3.1% |
Current number of MP's | 25 |
Current seat projection | 28 [16-49] |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
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1. | Edmonton Strathcona | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
2. | Vancouver East | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
3. | Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
4. | Vancouver Kingsway | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
5. | Elmwood–Transcona | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
6. | Hamilton Centre | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
7. | New Westminster–Burnaby | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
8. | Windsor West | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
9. | London–Fanshawe | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
10. | Victoria | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
11. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | ![]() |
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NDP safe hold | >99% |
12. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 99% |
13. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 99% |
14. | Winnipeg Centre | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 99% |
15. | Burnaby South | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 99% |
16. | Churchill–Keewatinook Aski | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 99% |
17. | Nunavut | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 98% |
18. | Courtenay–Alberni | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 98% |
19. | Timmins–James Bay | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 97% |
20. | Edmonton Griesbach | ![]() |
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NDP likely hold | 91% |
21. | South Okanagan–West Kootenay | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 85% |
22. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 85% |
23. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 85% |
24. | North Island–Powell River | ![]() |
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NDP leaning hold | 71% |
25. | Vancouver Granville | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 66% |
26. | Northwest Territories | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 60% |
27. | Berthier–Maskinongé | ![]() |
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Toss up NDP/BQ | 51% |
28. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 49% |
29. | Parkdale–High Park | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 49% |
30. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC | 48% |
31. | Windsor–Tecumseh | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 39% |
32. | Halifax | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 39% |
33. | Davenport | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 36% |
34. | Hamilton Mountain | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 35% |
35. | Spadina–Fort York | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 35% |
36. | Sudbury | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 34% |
37. | Toronto–Danforth | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 34% |
38. | Ottawa Centre | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 30% |
39. | Nickel Belt | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 30% |
40. | Saskatoon West | ![]() |
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CPC leaning hold | 25% |
41. | Kingston and the Islands | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 24% |
42. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 21% |
43. | London North Centre | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 20% |
44. | Yukon | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 19% |
45. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | ![]() |
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CPC leaning hold | 18% |
46. | Edmonton Centre | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 18% |
47. | Regina–Lewvan | ![]() |
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CPC leaning hold | 17% |
48. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 17% |
49. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 17% |
50. | Vancouver Centre | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 13% |
51. | Essex | ![]() |
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CPC leaning hold | 13% |
52. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | ![]() |
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CPC leaning hold | 12% |
53. | Kootenay–Columbia | ![]() |
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CPC leaning hold | 12% |
54. | St. John’s East | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 11% |
55. | Saskatoon–University | ![]() |
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CPC leaning hold | 11% |
56. | Edmonton Manning | ![]() |
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CPC leaning hold | 11% |
57. | Burnaby North–Seymour | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 10% |
58. | Niagara Centre | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 7% |
59. | Kenora | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 7% |
60. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 6% |
61. | Oshawa | ![]() |
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CPC likely hold | 5% |
62. | London West | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 4% |
63. | Outremont | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 4% |
64. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 3% |
65. | Labrador | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 2% |
66. | Hochelaga | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 2% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
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1. | Edmonton Strathcona | NDP safe hold |
2. | Vancouver East | NDP safe hold |
3. | Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | NDP safe hold |
4. | Vancouver Kingsway | NDP safe hold |
5. | Elmwood–Transcona | NDP safe hold |
6. | Hamilton Centre | NDP safe hold |
7. | New Westminster–Burnaby | NDP safe hold |
8. | Windsor West | NDP safe hold |
9. | London–Fanshawe | NDP safe hold |
10. | Victoria | NDP safe hold |
11. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | NDP safe hold |
12. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | NDP likely hold |
13. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | NDP likely hold |
14. | Winnipeg Centre | NDP likely hold |
15. | Burnaby South | NDP likely hold |
16. | Churchill–Keewatinook Aski | NDP likely hold |
17. | Nunavut | NDP likely hold |
18. | Courtenay–Alberni | NDP likely hold |
19. | Timmins–James Bay | NDP likely hold |
20. | Edmonton Griesbach | NDP likely hold |
21. | South Okanagan–West Kootenay | NDP leaning hold |
22. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | NDP leaning hold |
23. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | NDP leaning hold |
24. | North Island–Powell River | NDP leaning hold |
25. | Vancouver Granville | Toss up LPC/NDP |
26. | Northwest Territories | Toss up LPC/NDP |
27. | Berthier–Maskinongé | Toss up NDP/BQ |
28. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | Toss up LPC/NDP |
29. | Parkdale–High Park | Toss up LPC/NDP |
30. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | Toss up CPC/NDP/GPC |
31. | Windsor–Tecumseh | Toss up LPC/NDP |
32. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP |
33. | Davenport | Toss up LPC/NDP |
34. | Hamilton Mountain | Toss up LPC/NDP |
35. | Spadina–Fort York | Toss up LPC/NDP |
36. | Sudbury | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
37. | Toronto–Danforth | Toss up LPC/NDP |
38. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP |
39. | Nickel Belt | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
40. | Saskatoon West | CPC leaning hold |
41. | Kingston and the Islands | LPC leaning hold |
42. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
43. | London North Centre | LPC leaning hold |
44. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
45. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | CPC leaning hold |
46. | Edmonton Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
47. | Regina–Lewvan | CPC leaning hold |
48. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | LPC leaning hold |
49. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
50. | Vancouver Centre | LPC leaning hold |
51. | Essex | CPC leaning hold |
52. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | CPC leaning hold |
53. | Kootenay–Columbia | CPC leaning hold |
54. | St. John’s East | LPC leaning hold |
55. | Saskatoon–University | CPC leaning hold |
56. | Edmonton Manning | CPC leaning hold |
57. | Burnaby North–Seymour | LPC leaning hold |
58. | Niagara Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC |
59. | Kenora | CPC likely hold |
60. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | Toss up LPC/CPC |
61. | Oshawa | CPC likely hold |
62. | London West | Toss up LPC/CPC |
63. | Outremont | LPC likely hold |
64. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | LPC leaning hold |
65. | Labrador | LPC leaning hold |
66. | Hochelaga | LPC likely hold |