New Democratic Party

Latest update: September 28, 2025
Leader | Don Davies (interim) |
National popular vote in 2025 | 6.3% |
Current vote projection | 7.9% ± 2.1% |
Current number of MPs | 7 |
Current seat projection | 8 [4-15] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.
Popular vote projection | September 28, 2025
Seat projection | September 28, 2025
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | 2025 winner | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Edmonton Strathcona | ![]() |
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NDP safe | >99% |
2. | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie | ![]() |
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NDP likely | >99% |
3. | Vancouver East | ![]() |
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NDP likely | 94% |
4. | Winnipeg Centre | ![]() |
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NDP likely | 93% |
5. | Courtenay—Alberni | ![]() |
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NDP leaning | 88% |
6. | Nunavut | ![]() |
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NDP leaning | 87% |
7. | Vancouver Kingsway | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/NDP | 63% |
8. | Elmwood—Transcona | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/NDP | 54% |
9. | Edmonton Griesbach | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/NDP | 47% |
10. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/NDP | 30% |
11. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 29% |
12. | Hamilton Centre | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 28% |
13. | London—Fanshawe | ![]() |
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CPC leaning | 26% |
14. | Windsor West | ![]() |
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CPC leaning | 25% |
15. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | ![]() |
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CPC leaning | 24% |
16. | North Island—Powell River | ![]() |
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CPC leaning | 22% |
17. | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski | ![]() |
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LPC leaning | 18% |