logo
Canada

New Democratic Party



Latest update: July 6, 2025

LeaderDon Davies (interim)
National popular vote in 20256.3%
Current vote projection6.9% ± 2.0%
Current number of MPs7
Current seat projection8 [3-14]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | July 6, 2025 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada 2.8 seat/% 8 [3-14] 7% ± 2% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × NDP 8 [3-14] July 6, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 1/78 ON 0/122 MB 2/14 SK 0/14 AB 1/37 BC 3/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | July 6, 2025

2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 4.9% 2025 6.3% 6.9% ± 2.0% Max. 9.0% Probabilities % NDP July 6, 2025

Seat projection | July 6, 2025

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 3 2021 7 seats 8 Max. 14 Probabilities % NDP July 6, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe >99%
2. Vancouver East NDP likely 95%
3. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP likely 95%
4. Courtenay—Alberni NDP leaning 86%
5. Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning 76%
6. Vancouver Kingsway Toss up LPC/NDP 69%
7. Nunavut Toss up LPC/NDP 63%
8. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 52%
9. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 36%
10. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 33%
11. Hamilton Centre LPC leaning 26%
12. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning 25%
13. Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC leaning 24%
14. North Island—Powell River CPC leaning 24%
15. Windsor West CPC leaning 17%
16. London—Fanshawe CPC leaning 11%
17. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC likely 2%
18. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely 2%