New Democratic Party

Latest update: April 21, 2024

Leader	Jagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 2021	17.8%
Current vote projection	17.5% ± 2.9%
Current number of MP's	24
Current seat projection	20 [13-33]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024

Seat projection | April 21, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe hold	>99%
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe hold	>99%
3.	Vancouver East	NDP safe hold	>99%
4.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe hold	>99%
5.	Victoria	NDP safe hold	>99%
6.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe hold	>99%
7.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe hold	>99%
8.	Elmwood—Transcona	NDP safe hold	>99%
9.	Windsor West	NDP likely hold	99%
10.	Churchill—Kewatinook Aski	NDP likely hold	98%
11.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP likely hold	98%
12.	Nunavut	NDP likely hold	98%
13.	London—Fanshawe	NDP likely hold	95%
14.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	NDP likely hold	93%
15.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	NDP leaning gain	82%
16.	Spadina—Harbourfront	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	69%
17.	Burnaby Central	Toss up CPC/NDP	69%
18.	Davenport	Toss up LPC/NDP	65%
19.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP	58%
20.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP	57%
21.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP	50%
22.	Halifax	Toss up LPC/NDP	45%
23.	St. John’s East	Toss up LPC/NDP	38%
24.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/NDP	35%
25.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up CPC/NDP	35%
26.	Ottawa Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	31%
27.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC leaning gain	28%
28.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	28%
29.	London Centre	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	25%
30.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ leaning hold	17%
31.	Edmonton Centre	CPC leaning hold	17%
32.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC leaning gain	16%
33.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LPC leaning hold	15%
34.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC leaning gain	15%
35.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	LPC leaning hold	12%
36.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	11%
37.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC leaning gain	11%
38.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC	10%
39.	Saskatoon West	CPC likely hold	9%
40.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	LPC leaning hold	8%
41.	Vancouver Granville	CPC leaning gain	8%
42.	Sudbury	CPC likely gain	7%
43.	University—Rosedale	LPC likely hold	4%
44.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby	LPC leaning hold	4%
45.	Vancouver Centre	Toss up LPC/CPC	3%
46.	Labrador	CPC leaning gain	3%
47.	Halifax West	LPC leaning hold	2%
48.	Edmonton Manning	CPC likely hold	2%
49.	Regina—Lewvan	CPC likely hold	1%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP safe hold
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe hold
3.	Vancouver East	NDP safe hold
4.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe hold
5.	Victoria	NDP safe hold
6.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP safe hold
7.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe hold
8.	Elmwood—Transcona	NDP safe hold
9.	Windsor West	NDP likely hold
10.	Churchill—Kewatinook Aski	NDP likely hold
11.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP likely hold
12.	Nunavut	NDP likely hold
13.	London—Fanshawe	NDP likely hold
14.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	NDP likely hold
15.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	NDP leaning gain
16.	Spadina—Harbourfront	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
17.	Burnaby Central	Toss up CPC/NDP
18.	Davenport	Toss up LPC/NDP
19.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP
20.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP
21.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/NDP
22.	Halifax	Toss up LPC/NDP
23.	St. John’s East	Toss up LPC/NDP
24.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/NDP
25.	Hamilton Mountain	Toss up CPC/NDP
26.	Ottawa Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP
27.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC leaning gain
28.	Yukon	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
29.	London Centre	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
30.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ leaning hold
31.	Edmonton Centre	CPC leaning hold
32.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC leaning gain
33.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LPC leaning hold
34.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC leaning gain
35.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	LPC leaning hold
36.	Kingston and the Islands	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
37.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC leaning gain
38.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up LPC/CPC
39.	Saskatoon West	CPC likely hold
40.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	LPC leaning hold
41.	Vancouver Granville	CPC leaning gain
42.	Sudbury	CPC likely gain
43.	University—Rosedale	LPC likely hold
44.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby	LPC leaning hold
45.	Vancouver Centre	Toss up LPC/CPC
46.	Labrador	CPC leaning gain
47.	Halifax West	LPC leaning hold
48.	Edmonton Manning	CPC likely hold
49.	Regina—Lewvan	CPC likely hold