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Canada

New Democratic Party



Latest update: September 15, 2024

LeaderJagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 202117.8%
Current vote projection16.4% ± 2.8%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection14 [9-25]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 15, 2024 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada ©2023 2.7 seat/% 14 [9-25] 16% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × NDP 14 [9-25] September 15, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 1/78 ON 3/122 MB 3/14 SK 0/14 AB 1/37 BC 5/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | September 15, 2024

10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 13.6% 16.4% ± 2.8% 2021 17.8% Max. 19.2% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | September 15, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 9 14 2021 24 seats Max. 25 Probabilities % NDP September 15, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner
Last projection Odds of winning
1. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP safe >99%
2. Vancouver East NDP safe >99%
3. Hamilton Centre NDP safe >99%
4. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe >99%
5. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe >99%
6. Victoria NDP safe >99%
7. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely 99%
8. Nunavut NDP likely 98%
9. Windsor West NDP likely 97%
10. Churchill—Kewatinook Aski NDP likely 96%
11. London—Fanshawe NDP leaning 85%
12. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP leaning 84%
13. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP 68%
14. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up CPC/NDP 63%
15. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 42%
16. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP 39%
17. Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP 34%
18. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC leaning 28%
19. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 26%
20. Halifax LPC leaning 20%
21. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning 20%
22. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC leaning 18%
23. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning 17%
24. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 16%
25. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ leaning 16%
26. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ 16%
27. Ottawa Centre LPC leaning 14%
28. Davenport LPC leaning 13%
29. London Centre CPC leaning 11%
30. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely 9%
31. St. John’s East LPC leaning 7%
32. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC likely 6%
33. Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely 6%
34. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC likely 5%
35. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning 4%
36. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC 4%
37. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC 4%
38. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC 4%
39. Saskatoon West CPC likely 3%
40. Edmonton Centre CPC likely 2%
41. Sudbury CPC likely 2%
42. Outremont LPC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP safe
2. Vancouver East NDP safe
3. Hamilton Centre NDP safe
4. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe
5. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe
6. Victoria NDP safe
7. Winnipeg Centre NDP likely
8. Nunavut NDP likely
9. Windsor West NDP likely
10. Churchill—Kewatinook Aski NDP likely
11. London—Fanshawe NDP leaning
12. New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP leaning
13. Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP
14. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up CPC/NDP
15. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
16. Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Toss up CPC/NDP
17. Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP
18. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park LPC leaning
19. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
20. Halifax LPC leaning
21. Edmonton Griesbach CPC leaning
22. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC leaning
23. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning
24. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
25. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ leaning
26. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
27. Ottawa Centre LPC leaning
28. Davenport LPC leaning
29. London Centre CPC leaning
30. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely
31. St. John’s East LPC leaning
32. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt CPC likely
33. Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely
34. Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore CPC likely
35. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning
36. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC
37. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/CPC
38. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC
39. Saskatoon West CPC likely
40. Edmonton Centre CPC likely
41. Sudbury CPC likely
42. Outremont LPC likely