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Canada

New Democratic Party





Last update: February 5, 2023

LeaderJagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 202117.8%
Current vote projection18.3% ± 3.3%
Current number of MP's25
Current seat projection20 [13-30]

Popular vote projection | February 5, 2023

11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 15.1% 2021 17.8% 18.3% ± 3.3% Max. 21.6% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | February 5, 2023

3 8 13 18 23 28 33 38 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 13 20 2021 25 seats Max. 30 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe hold >99%
2. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold >99%
3. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold >99%
4. Vancouver East NDP safe hold >99%
5. Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold >99%
6. Windsor West NDP safe hold >99%
7. Winnipeg Centre NDP safe hold >99%
8. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP safe hold >99%
9. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe hold >99%
10. London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold >99%
11. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe hold >99%
12. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold 99%
13. Victoria NDP likely hold 98%
14. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold 88%
15. Nunavut NDP leaning hold 85%
16. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning hold 82%
17. Timmins–James Bay NDP leaning hold 76%
18. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP leaning hold 74%
19. Burnaby South Toss up LPC/NDP 70%
20. Courtenay–Alberni Toss up CPC/NDP 58%
21. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 42%
22. Northwest Territories LPC leaning hold 24%
23. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC leaning gain 22%
24. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC leaning gain 21%
25. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC leaning gain 20%
26. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 17%
27. North Island–Powell River CPC leaning gain 17%
28. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold 13%
29. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning hold 13%
30. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 12%
31. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold 10%
32. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain 10%
33. Vancouver Granville LPC leaning hold 8%
34. Outremont LPC likely hold 7%
35. Davenport LPC likely hold 6%
36. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/GPC 6%
37. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely hold 5%
38. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC leaning hold 5%
39. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC likely hold 4%
40. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC 4%
41. Ottawa Centre LPC likely hold 4%
42. Toronto–Danforth LPC likely hold 3%
43. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold 3%
44. Spadina–Fort York LPC likely hold 3%
45. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold 3%
46. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely hold 3%
47. Hochelaga LPC likely hold 3%
48. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC 3%
49. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 3%
50. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 2%
51. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC 2%
52. Labrador LPC leaning hold 2%
53. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely hold 2%
54. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely hold 1%
55. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe hold
2. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold
3. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold
4. Vancouver East NDP safe hold
5. Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold
6. Windsor West NDP safe hold
7. Winnipeg Centre NDP safe hold
8. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP safe hold
9. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe hold
10. London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold
11. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe hold
12. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold
13. Victoria NDP likely hold
14. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold
15. Nunavut NDP leaning hold
16. Edmonton Griesbach NDP leaning hold
17. Timmins–James Bay NDP leaning hold
18. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP leaning hold
19. Burnaby South Toss up LPC/NDP
20. Courtenay–Alberni Toss up CPC/NDP
21. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
22. Northwest Territories LPC leaning hold
23. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC leaning gain
24. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC leaning gain
25. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC leaning gain
26. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
27. North Island–Powell River CPC leaning gain
28. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold
29. Hamilton Mountain LPC leaning hold
30. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
31. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold
32. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain
33. Vancouver Granville LPC leaning hold
34. Outremont LPC likely hold
35. Davenport LPC likely hold
36. Nanaimo–Ladysmith Toss up CPC/GPC
37. Parkdale–High Park LPC likely hold
38. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC leaning hold
39. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC likely hold
40. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC
41. Ottawa Centre LPC likely hold
42. Toronto–Danforth LPC likely hold
43. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold
44. Spadina–Fort York LPC likely hold
45. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold
46. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC likely hold
47. Hochelaga LPC likely hold
48. Sudbury Toss up LPC/CPC
49. London North Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
50. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
51. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/CPC
52. Labrador LPC leaning hold
53. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely hold
54. Kingston and the Islands LPC likely hold
55. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/CPC