New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP likely	>99%
2.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP likely	96%
3.	Vancouver East	NDP leaning	82%
4.	Hamilton Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	57%
5.	Windsor West	Toss up LPC/NDP	55%
6.	Winnipeg Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	55%
7.	London—Fanshawe	Toss up LPC/NDP	51%
8.	Elmwood—Transcona	Toss up CPC/NDP	49%
9.	Nunavut	Toss up LPC/NDP	48%
10.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	Toss up LPC/NDP	44%
11.	Berthier—Maskinongé	Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ	39%
12.	Edmonton Griesbach	Toss up CPC/NDP	31%
13.	Vancouver Kingsway	LPC leaning	27%
14.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	19%
15.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	LPC leaning	19%
16.	Victoria	LPC leaning	15%
17.	Burnaby Central	LPC leaning	10%
18.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC likely	8%
19.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	LPC likely	4%
20.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC likely	3%