338Canada | New Democratic Party





Last update: January 23, 2022

LeaderJagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 202117.8%
Current vote projection20.2% ± 3.2%
Current number of MP's25
Current seat projection41 [21-57]



Vote Projection | New Democratic Party | January 23, 2022




Seat Projection | New Democratic Party | January 23, 2022




Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe >99%
2. Vancouver East NDP safe >99%
3. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe >99%
4. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe >99%
5. Hamilton Centre NDP safe >99%
6. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe >99%
7. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe >99%
8. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP safe >99%
9. Windsor West NDP safe >99%
10. London–Fanshawe NDP safe >99%
11. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP safe >99%
12. Victoria NDP safe >99%
13. Courtenay–Alberni NDP safe >99%
14. Winnipeg Centre NDP safe >99%
15. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP safe >99%
16. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely 99%
17. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP likely 99%
18. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely 99%
19. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP likely 99%
20. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP likely 98%
21. Burnaby South NDP likely 98%
22. North Island–Powell River NDP likely 97%
23. Edmonton Griesbach NDP likely 96%
24. Nunavut NDP likely 93%
25. Nanaimo–Ladysmith NDP leaning 74%
26. Parkdale–High Park NDP leaning 72%
27. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP 68%
28. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 67%
29. Saskatoon West Toss up CPC/NDP 66%
30. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 66%
31. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up CPC/NDP 63%
32. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP 62%
33. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP 59%
34. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 57%
35. Kootenay–Columbia Toss up CPC/NDP 57%
36. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP 56%
37. Saskatoon–University Toss up CPC/NDP 56%
38. Regina–Lewvan Toss up CPC/NDP 55%
39. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/NDP 54%
40. Sudbury Toss up LPC/NDP 54%
41. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 45%
42. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 41%
43. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP 37%
44. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 36%
45. Edmonton Manning Toss up CPC/NDP 30%
46. Essex Toss up CPC/NDP 30%
47. Kingston and the Islands LPC leaning 29%
48. London North Centre LPC leaning 27%
49. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/NDP 25%
50. St. John’s East LPC leaning 25%
51. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC leaning 22%
52. Kenora CPC leaning 17%
53. Oshawa CPC leaning 16%
54. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC leaning 16%
55. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning 15%
56. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 15%
57. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC leaning 14%
58. London West Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 11%
59. Yukon LPC leaning 11%
60. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning 10%
61. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning 9%
62. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely 7%
63. Labrador LPC leaning 7%
64. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ likely 5%
65. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely 5%
66. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely 4%
67. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely 3%
68. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC 3%
69. Chilliwack–Hope CPC likely 3%
70. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe
2. Vancouver East NDP safe
3. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe
4. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe
5. Hamilton Centre NDP safe
6. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe
7. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe
8. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP safe
9. Windsor West NDP safe
10. London–Fanshawe NDP safe
11. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford NDP safe
12. Victoria NDP safe
13. Courtenay–Alberni NDP safe
14. Winnipeg Centre NDP safe
15. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP safe
16. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP likely
17. South Okanagan–West Kootenay NDP likely
18. Timmins–James Bay NDP likely
19. Skeena–Bulkley Valley NDP likely
20. Port Moody–Coquitlam NDP likely
21. Burnaby South NDP likely
22. North Island–Powell River NDP likely
23. Edmonton Griesbach NDP likely
24. Nunavut NDP likely
25. Nanaimo–Ladysmith NDP leaning
26. Parkdale–High Park NDP leaning
27. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
28. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
29. Saskatoon West Toss up CPC/NDP
30. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
31. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Toss up CPC/NDP
32. Vancouver Granville Toss up LPC/NDP
33. Hamilton Mountain Toss up LPC/NDP
34. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
35. Kootenay–Columbia Toss up CPC/NDP
36. Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up LPC/NDP
37. Saskatoon–University Toss up CPC/NDP
38. Regina–Lewvan Toss up CPC/NDP
39. Nickel Belt Toss up LPC/NDP
40. Sudbury Toss up LPC/NDP
41. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
42. Thunder Bay–Rainy River Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
43. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
44. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
45. Edmonton Manning Toss up CPC/NDP
46. Essex Toss up CPC/NDP
47. Kingston and the Islands LPC leaning
48. London North Centre LPC leaning
49. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up LPC/NDP
50. St. John’s East LPC leaning
51. Thunder Bay–Superior North LPC leaning
52. Kenora CPC leaning
53. Oshawa CPC leaning
54. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC leaning
55. Edmonton Centre LPC leaning
56. Niagara Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
57. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC leaning
58. London West Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
59. Yukon LPC leaning
60. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning
61. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country LPC leaning
62. Burnaby North–Seymour LPC likely
63. Labrador LPC leaning
64. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ likely
65. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook LPC likely
66. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam LPC likely
67. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC likely
68. Nipissing–Timiskaming Toss up LPC/CPC
69. Chilliwack–Hope CPC likely
70. Kildonan–St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC



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