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New Democratic Party

Latest update: October 11, 2026
LeaderAvi Lewis
National popular vote in 20256.3%
Current vote projection10.3% ± 2.7%
Current number of MPs5
Current seat projection12 [4-17]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 11, 2026 20 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada 2.4 seat/% 12 [4-17] 10% ± 3% 2019 2021 2025
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Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × NDP 12 [4-17] October 11, 2026 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 1/78 ON 1/122 MB 2/14 SK 0/14 AB 2/37 BC 6/43 YT NWT NU
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Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | October 11, 2026

4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2025 6.3% Min. 7.6% ▼ 10.3% ± 2.7% ▼ Max. 13.1% ▼ Probabilities % NDP October 11, 2026
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Seat projection | October 11, 2026

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 4 ▼ 2021 7 seats 12 ▼ Max. 17 ▼ Probabilities % NDP October 11, 2026
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List of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Districts and MPs Current party Projection
1.
Edmonton Strathcona
Heather McPherson
 N NDP safe
2.
Courtenay—Alberni
Gord Johns
 N NDP likely
3.
Winnipeg Centre
Leah Gazan
 N NDP leaning
4.
Skeena—Bulkley Valley
Ellis Ross
 C NDP leaning
5.
Vancouver East
Jenny Kwan
 N NDP leaning
6.
Vancouver Kingsway
Don Davies
 N NDP leaning
7.
Elmwood—Transcona
Colin Reynolds
 C NDP leaning
8.
North Island—Powell River
Aaron Gunn
 C NDP leaning
9.
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Jeff Kibble
 C Toss up LPC/NDP
10.
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Vacant
 Toss up LPC/NDP
11.
Edmonton Griesbach
Kerry Diotte
 C Toss up CPC/NDP
12.
London—Fanshawe
Kurt Holman
 C Toss up LPC/NDP
13.
Windsor West
Harbinder Gill
 C Toss up LPC/NDP
14.
Nunavut
Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]
 L Toss up LPC/NDP
15.
New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville
Jake Sawatzky
 L LPC leaning
16.
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski
Rebecca Chartrand
 L LPC leaning
17.
Hamilton Centre
Aslam Rana
 L LPC leaning
18.
Saskatoon West
Brad Redekopp
 C CPC likely
19.
Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park
Karim Bardeesy
 L LPC likely
20.
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong
Eric Melillo
 C LPC leaning
21.
Nanaimo—Ladysmith
Tamara Kronis
 C LPC leaning
22.
Berthier—Maskinongé
Yves Perron
 B BQ leaning
23.
Ottawa Centre
Yasir Naqvi
 L LPC safe
24.
Davenport
Julie Dzerowicz
 L LPC safe
25.
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies
Rob Morrison
 C CPC likely
26.
Brandon—Souris
Grant Jackson
 C CPC safe
27.
Burnaby Central
Wade Wei Lin Chang
 L LPC safe