New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP likely	98%
2.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP likely	94%
3.	Vancouver East	NDP likely	91%
4.	Courtenay—Alberni	NDP leaning	77%
5.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP leaning	75%
6.	Vancouver Kingsway	Toss up LPC/NDP	58%
7.	Nunavut	Toss up LPC/NDP	50%
8.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	24%
9.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC leaning	21%
10.	Elmwood—Transcona	CPC leaning	17%
11.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	CPC leaning	15%
12.	North Island—Powell River	CPC leaning	14%
13.	Hamilton Centre	LPC leaning	6%
14.	Edmonton Griesbach	CPC likely	6%
15.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	LPC likely	3%
16.	Windsor West	CPC leaning	2%
17.	London—Fanshawe	CPC likely	1%