New Democratic Party

Latest update: January 19, 2025

Leader	Jagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 2021	17.8%
Current vote projection	17.7% ± 3.2%
Current number of MPs	TBD
Current seat projection	21 [10-33]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | January 19, 2025

Seat projection | January 19, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe	>99%
2.	Vancouver East	NDP safe	>99%
3.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe	>99%
4.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe	>99%
5.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP likely	>99%
6.	Nunavut	NDP likely	99%
7.	Victoria	NDP likely	98%
8.	Windsor West	NDP likely	98%
9.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP likely	96%
10.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	NDP leaning	89%
11.	London—Fanshawe	NDP leaning	89%
12.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	NDP leaning	79%
13.	Davenport	NDP leaning	77%
14.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP leaning	72%
15.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	Toss up CPC/NDP	69%
16.	Halifax	Toss up LPC/NDP	67%
17.	Ottawa Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP	60%
18.	Spadina—Harbourfront	Toss up CPC/NDP	59%
19.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	53%
20.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	52%
21.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	Toss up CPC/NDP	51%
22.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP	47%
23.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	Toss up LPC/NDP	38%
24.	Outremont	Toss up LPC/NDP	37%
25.	St. John’s East	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	34%
26.	Burnaby Central	CPC leaning	30%
27.	Hamilton Mountain	CPC leaning	27%
28.	London Centre	CPC leaning	23%
29.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ	22%
30.	Papineau	LPC leaning	21%
31.	Elmwood—Transcona	CPC leaning	18%
32.	Yukon	CPC leaning	17%
33.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	CPC leaning	14%
34.	Kingston and the Islands	CPC leaning	14%
35.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC leaning	11%
36.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC leaning	10%
37.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP	10%
38.	University—Rosedale	LPC leaning	9%
39.	Toronto Centre	LPC likely	5%
40.	Vancouver Centre	CPC leaning	5%
41.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC likely	5%
42.	Sudbury	CPC likely	5%
43.	Edmonton Griesbach	CPC likely	5%
44.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC likely	4%
45.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	3%
46.	Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est	BQ likely	2%
47.	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount	LPC likely	2%
48.	Guelph	CPC leaning	2%
49.	Halifax West	Toss up LPC/CPC	2%
50.	Surrey Newton	LPC leaning	1%
51.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby	CPC leaning	1%
52.	Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester	LPC leaning	1%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP safe
2.	Vancouver East	NDP safe
3.	Hamilton Centre	NDP safe
4.	Winnipeg Centre	NDP safe
5.	Vancouver Kingsway	NDP likely
6.	Nunavut	NDP likely
7.	Victoria	NDP likely
8.	Windsor West	NDP likely
9.	Edmonton Strathcona	NDP likely
10.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park	NDP leaning
11.	London—Fanshawe	NDP leaning
12.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie	NDP leaning
13.	Davenport	NDP leaning
14.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville	NDP leaning
15.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	Toss up CPC/NDP
16.	Halifax	Toss up LPC/NDP
17.	Ottawa Centre	Toss up LPC/NDP
18.	Spadina—Harbourfront	Toss up CPC/NDP
19.	Northwest Territories	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
20.	Toronto—Danforth	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
21.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke	Toss up CPC/NDP
22.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	Toss up CPC/NDP
23.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	Toss up LPC/NDP
24.	Outremont	Toss up LPC/NDP
25.	St. John’s East	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
26.	Burnaby Central	CPC leaning
27.	Hamilton Mountain	CPC leaning
28.	London Centre	CPC leaning
29.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
30.	Papineau	LPC leaning
31.	Elmwood—Transcona	CPC leaning
32.	Yukon	CPC leaning
33.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	CPC leaning
34.	Kingston and the Islands	CPC leaning
35.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	CPC leaning
36.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore	CPC leaning
37.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
38.	University—Rosedale	LPC leaning
39.	Toronto Centre	LPC likely
40.	Vancouver Centre	CPC leaning
41.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	CPC likely
42.	Sudbury	CPC likely
43.	Edmonton Griesbach	CPC likely
44.	Courtenay—Alberni	CPC likely
45.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely
46.	Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est	BQ likely
47.	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount	LPC likely
48.	Guelph	CPC leaning
49.	Halifax West	Toss up LPC/CPC
50.	Surrey Newton	LPC leaning
51.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby	CPC leaning
52.	Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester	LPC leaning