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🍁338Canada Quebec projections

338Canada provides statistical projections of federal and provincial elections in Canada, combining opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data to estimate both popular vote and seat outcomes.

This page shows the current state of Quebec's political landscape, including recent polling, projected vote shares, and likely seat distributions if an election were held today.

Projections are updated regularly as new polling becomes available.

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Created by Philippe J. Fournier.

Latest Quebec projection→ List of Quebec polls→ Electoral districts→ Browse projection map→ Riding roulette!→

Latest Quebec Polls

Pallas Data
2026-01-10
11
24
11
34
16
Léger
2025-12-14
19
20
9
35
16
Léger
2025-11-30
18
21
8
39
13
Angus Reid
2025-11-29
13
18
10
40
16
Pallas Data
2025-11-25
13
25
9
36
15
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338Canada Projection | Quebec

Latest update: January 14, 2026

Popular vote projection 31% 39% 35% ± 4% ▼ PQ 20% 26% 23% ± 3% ▲ LIB 13% 18% 16% ± 3% ▲ CPQ 13% 18% 15% ± 3% ▼ CAQ 7% 11% 9% ± 2% ▲ QS Popular vote projection | January 14, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 76 ▼ [67-82] PQ 37 ▲ [31-43] LIB 8 ▲ [4-13] CPQ 4 [1-8] QS 0 ▼ [0-2] CAQ 338Canada seat projection | January 14, 2026
Methodology note. The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current range from worst- to best-case outcomes. Values near the centre of the distribution are more likely than the extremes, as the results follow Gaussian-like (bell-curve) distributions. Does it work? See 338Canada’s full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS Odds of winning | January 14, 2026
Methodology note. The odds of winning and of various outcomes are those that would apply if a general election were held today. They are calculated using the 338Canada Monte Carlo–type model, which runs thousands of simulated elections based on projected vote shares by riding, past results, and demographic data.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 99% PQ majority 1% PQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority Odds of outcome | January 14, 2026

338Canada Quebec | Popular Vote Projection

LIB 23% ± 3% PQ 35% ± 4% CAQ 15% ± 3% QS 9% ± 2% CPQ 16% ± 3% Popular vote projection % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 January 14, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ 32% CAQ 21% LIB 21% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 31% CAQ 23% LIB 20% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 32% CAQ 23% LIB 19% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 33% CAQ 21% LIB 20% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 32% LIB 24% CAQ 18% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 31% LIB 27% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 10% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 32% LIB 26% CAQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 34% LIB 25% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 37% LIB 26% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 37% LIB 26% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 36% LIB 25% CAQ 15% CPQ 14% QS 7% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 33% LIB 26% CAQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 8% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 38% LIB 22% CAQ 16% CPQ 14% QS 8% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 36% LIB 21% CAQ 18% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 35% LIB 23% CPQ 16% CAQ 15% QS 9% 2026-01-14 ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader ▼ Zanetti QS co-leader ▼ Rodriguez resigns

338Canada Quebec | Seat Projection

LIB 37 [31-43] PQ 76 [67-82] CAQ 0 [0-2] QS 4 [1-8] CPQ 8 [4-13] Seat projection 80 60 40 20 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Majority: 63 seats January 14, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ 68 LIB 36 CPQ 9 CAQ 6 QS 6 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 61 LIB 34 CAQ 15 CPQ 9 QS 6 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 65 LIB 31 CAQ 14 CPQ 9 QS 6 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 74 LIB 33 CPQ 8 QS 6 CAQ 4 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 71 LIB 39 CPQ 8 QS 7 CAQ 0 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 69 LIB 41 CPQ 9 QS 6 CAQ 0 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 72 LIB 39 CPQ 8 QS 6 CAQ 0 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 75 LIB 38 CPQ 7 QS 5 CAQ 0 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 77 LIB 38 CPQ 6 QS 4 CAQ 0 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 77 LIB 39 CPQ 6 QS 3 CAQ 0 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 74 LIB 39 CPQ 9 QS 3 CAQ 0 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 72 LIB 39 CPQ 7 QS 4 CAQ 3 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 82 LIB 33 CPQ 6 QS 4 CAQ 0 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ 77 LIB 35 CPQ 7 QS 4 CAQ 2 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ 76 LIB 37 CPQ 8 QS 4 CAQ 0 2026-01-14 ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader ▼ Zanetti QS co-leader ▼ Rodriguez resigns

338Canada Quebec | Odds of Winning the Most Seats

PLQ <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 PLQ PQ CAQ QS Tie January 14, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% Tie <1% QS <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 99% CAQ <1% Tie <1% PLQ <1% QS <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% Tie <1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ >99% PLQ <1% Tie <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2026-01-14 ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader ▼ Zanetti QS co-leader ▼ Rodriguez resigns

338Canada Quebec | Odds of Election Outcome

PQ majority 99% PQ plurality 1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB majority LIB plurality PQ majority PQ plurality CAQ majority CAQ plurality January 14, 2026 2025-03-05 PQ majority 62% PQ plurality 38% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ plurality 63% PQ majority 36% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ plurality 54% PQ majority 46% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ majority 76% PQ plurality 24% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ majority 99% PQ plurality 1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ majority >99% PQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ majority >99% PQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ majority >99% PQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ majority 87% PQ plurality 13% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ majority >99% PQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 PQ majority 99% PQ plurality 1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 PQ majority 99% PQ plurality 1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2026-01-14 ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader ▼ Zanetti QS co-leader ▼ Rodriguez resigns