logo
logo
Quebec

Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!


338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!


Latest Quebec Polls

Léger
2025-11-30
18
21
8
39
13
Pallas Data
2025-11-25
13
25
9
36
15
Léger
2025-11-09
17
27
8
32
14
Pallas DataPP Poll obtained through a partisan leak
2025-10-19
13
26
10
33
14
Léger
2025-09-27
16
25
6
36
15
© 338Canada.com
View all Quebec polls →

338Canada Projection | Quebec


Latest update: December 3, 2025

Popular vote projection 34% 42% 38% ± 4% ▲ PQ 19% 25% 22% ± 3% ▼ LIB 13% 19% 16% ± 3% ▼ CAQ 12% 17% 14% ± 2% CPQ 6% 9% 8% ± 2% QS Popular vote projection | December 3, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 82 ▲ [73-87] PQ 33 ▼ [29-39] LIB 6 ▼ [3-10] CPQ 4 [1-6] QS 0 ▼ [0-3] CAQ 338Canada seat projection | December 3, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.


50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS Odds of winning | December 3, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99%▲ PQ majority <1%▼ PQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority Odds of outcome | December 3, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

338Canada Quebec | Popular Vote Projection

LIB 22% ± 3% PQ 38% ± 4% CAQ 16% ± 3% QS 8% ± 2% CPQ 14% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 December 3, 2025 2025-03-05 PQ 32% CAQ 21% LIB 21% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 31% CAQ 23% LIB 20% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 32% CAQ 23% LIB 19% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 33% CAQ 21% LIB 20% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 32% LIB 24% CAQ 18% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 31% LIB 27% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 10% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 32% LIB 26% CAQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 34% LIB 25% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 37% LIB 26% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 37% LIB 26% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 36% LIB 25% CAQ 15% CPQ 14% QS 7% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 33% LIB 26% CAQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 8% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 38% LIB 22% CAQ 16% CPQ 14% QS 8% 2025-12-03 ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader ▼ Zanetti QS co-leader

338Canada Quebec | Seat Projection

LIB 33 [29-39] PQ 82 [73-87] CAQ 0 [0-3] QS 4 [1-6] CPQ 6 [3-10] Seat projection 80 60 40 20 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Majority: 63 seats December 3, 2025 2025-03-05 PQ 68 LIB 36 CPQ 9 CAQ 6 QS 6 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 61 LIB 34 CAQ 15 CPQ 9 QS 6 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 65 LIB 31 CAQ 14 CPQ 9 QS 6 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 74 LIB 33 CPQ 8 QS 6 CAQ 4 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 71 LIB 39 CPQ 8 QS 7 CAQ 0 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 69 LIB 41 CPQ 9 QS 6 CAQ 0 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 72 LIB 39 CPQ 8 QS 6 CAQ 0 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ 75 LIB 38 CPQ 7 QS 5 CAQ 0 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ 77 LIB 38 CPQ 6 QS 4 CAQ 0 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ 77 LIB 39 CPQ 6 QS 3 CAQ 0 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ 74 LIB 39 CPQ 9 QS 3 CAQ 0 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ 72 LIB 39 CPQ 7 QS 4 CAQ 3 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ 82 LIB 33 CPQ 6 QS 4 CAQ 0 2025-12-03 ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader ▼ Zanetti QS co-leader

338Canada Quebec | Odds of Winning the Most Seats

PLQ <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 PLQ PQ CAQ QS Tie December 3, 2025 2025-03-05 PQ >99% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% Tie <1% QS <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 99% CAQ <1% Tie <1% PLQ <1% QS <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% CAQ <1% Tie <1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ >99% PLQ <1% Tie <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% 2025-12-03 ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader ▼ Zanetti QS co-leader

338Canada Quebec | Odds of Election Outcome

PQ majority >99% PQ plurality <1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB majority LIB plurality PQ majority PQ plurality CAQ majority CAQ plurality December 3, 2025 2025-03-05 PQ majority 62% PQ plurality 38% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ plurality 63% PQ majority 36% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ plurality 54% PQ majority 46% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ majority 76% PQ plurality 24% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 PQ majority 99% PQ plurality 1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 PQ majority >99% PQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 PQ majority >99% PQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 PQ majority >99% PQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 PQ majority 87% PQ plurality 13% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 PQ majority >99% PQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-12-03 ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader ▼ Zanetti QS co-leader