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Canada


Mount Royal (federal)


MP: Anthony Housefather (LPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

LPC safe hold
Mount Royal 48% ± 7%▲ 30% ± 6%▲ 10% ± 4% 6% ± 3% 5% ± 3% LPC 2021 57.71% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Mount Royal >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mount Royal

LPC 48% ± 7% CPC 30% ± 6% NDP 10% ± 4% GPC 6% ± 3% BQ 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mount Royal 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Mount Royal

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Mount Royal



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 50.3% 56.3% 57.71% 48% ± 7% CPC 37.9% 24.9% 24.46% 30% ± 6% NDP 8.1% 8.3% 8.37% 10% ± 4% BQ 1.9% 4.0% 3.92% 5% ± 3% GPC 1.6% 5.5% 2.69% 6% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 0.8% 2.61% 2% ± 2%