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Canada

Toronto—Danforth



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
Toronto—Danforth 33% ± 7% NDP 29% ± 6% LPC 29% ± 6% CPC 8% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 48.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto—Danforth 69%▲ NDP 16%▼ LPC 16% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Toronto—Danforth

LPC 29% ± 6% CPC 29% ± 6% NDP 33% ± 7% GPC 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—Danforth 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 31% LPC 30% CPC 26% GPC 11% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 31% LPC 30% CPC 26% GPC 11% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 32% NDP 31% CPC 25% GPC 11% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 31% NDP 31% CPC 25% GPC 11% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 31% NDP 31% CPC 25% GPC 11% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 31% NDP 31% CPC 25% GPC 11% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 32% LPC 30% CPC 25% GPC 11% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 32% CPC 29% NDP 29% GPC 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 33% CPC 29% NDP 28% GPC 7% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 32% CPC 29% NDP 28% GPC 7% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 32% CPC 29% NDP 28% GPC 8% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 32% CPC 29% NDP 28% GPC 8% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 32% NDP 29% CPC 29% GPC 8% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 32% NDP 29% CPC 29% GPC 8% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 33% NDP 29% CPC 28% GPC 8% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 33% NDP 28% CPC 28% GPC 8% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 34% CPC 29% NDP 27% GPC 8% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 33% CPC 29% NDP 27% GPC 8% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 33% CPC 30% NDP 26% GPC 9% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 32% CPC 31% NDP 26% GPC 9% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 31% CPC 30% NDP 27% GPC 8% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 30% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 8% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 31% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 8% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 31% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 8% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 31% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 8% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 31% NDP 30% CPC 28% GPC 8% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 31% NDP 30% CPC 28% GPC 8% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 32% NDP 30% CPC 28% GPC 8% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 30% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 8% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 31% LPC 30% CPC 29% GPC 8% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 33% LPC 29% CPC 29% GPC 8% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 33% LPC 29% CPC 29% GPC 8% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Toronto—Danforth

LPC 16% CPC 16% NDP 69% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 55% LPC 41% CPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 52% LPC 43% CPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 56% NDP 41% CPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 49% NDP 48% CPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 53% NDP 44% CPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 51% NDP 47% CPC 2% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 61% LPC 37% CPC 2% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 63% CPC 20% NDP 17% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 69% CPC 17% NDP 14% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 65% CPC 20% NDP 14% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 64% CPC 22% NDP 14% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 64% CPC 22% NDP 14% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 56% NDP 26% CPC 18% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 58% NDP 24% CPC 19% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 68% NDP 18% CPC 14% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 79% NDP 12% CPC 9% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 81% CPC 14% NDP 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 75% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 67% CPC 29% NDP 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 60% CPC 38% NDP 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 52% CPC 38% NDP 11% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 37% CPC 34% NDP 28% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 44% NDP 30% CPC 26% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 48% NDP 31% CPC 20% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 47% NDP 34% CPC 19% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 46% NDP 38% CPC 16% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 53% NDP 31% CPC 16% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 59% NDP 31% CPC 11% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 40% NDP 39% CPC 21% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 42% LPC 31% CPC 27% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 67% LPC 17% CPC 16% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 69% LPC 16% CPC 16% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Toronto—Danforth



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 47.7% 48.4% 29% ± 6% NDP 33.2% 33.7% 33% ± 7% CPC 10.5% 12.6% 29% ± 6% PPC 1.1% 2.5% 2% ± 2% GPC 6.5% 2.0% 8% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.