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Canada

Bay of Quinte


MP elect: Christopher Malette (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Bay of Quinte


Liberal Christopher Malette
Conservative Ryan Williams*
NDP Kate Crothers
Green Erica Charlton

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Bay of Quinte 50% ± 6% LPC 45% ± 6% CPC 4% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 50.4% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bay of Quinte 85%▼ LPC 15%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Bay of Quinte

LPC 50% ± 6% CPC 45% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Bay of Quinte 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 57% LPC 19% NDP 17% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 56% LPC 21% NDP 16% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 56% LPC 21% NDP 16% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 53% LPC 24% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 51% LPC 27% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 11% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 50% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 47% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Bay of Quinte

LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Bay of Quinte



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 50% ± 6% 39.4% 37.0% 50.4% CPC 45% ± 6% 36.3% 40.6% 44.7% NDP 4% ± 2% 16.2% 15.3% 3.6% GPC 1% ± 1% 6.1% 2.2% 1.3% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.9% 4.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.