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Canada

Bay of Quinte



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Bay of Quinte


Liberal Christopher Malette
Conservative Ryan Williams*
NDP Kate Crothers
Green Erica Charlton

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Bay of Quinte 47% ± 8%▼ CPC 45% ± 8%▲ LPC 6% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 40.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bay of Quinte 64%▼ CPC 36%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Bay of Quinte

LPC 45% ± 8% CPC 47% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Bay of Quinte 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 47% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Bay of Quinte

LPC 36% CPC 64% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Bay of Quinte



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 36.3% 40.6% 47% ± 8% LPC 39.4% 37.0% 45% ± 8% NDP 16.2% 15.3% 6% ± 4% GPC 6.1% 2.2% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.9% 4.9% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.