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Canada

Abitibi—Témiscamingue


Latest projection: September 15, 2024
BQ safe
Abitibi—Témiscamingue 50% ± 8% BQ 19% ± 6% CPC 15% ± 5%▼ LPC 8% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC BQ 2021 50.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abitibi—Témiscamingue >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | September 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Abitibi—Témiscamingue

LPC 15% ± 5% CPC 19% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 50% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Abitibi—Témiscamingue 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ September 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 52% CPC 20% LPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 54% CPC 19% LPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 53% CPC 19% LPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 51% CPC 20% LPC 16% NDP 7% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 50% CPC 21% LPC 16% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 49% CPC 21% LPC 16% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 51% CPC 20% LPC 15% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 51% CPC 20% LPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 51% CPC 19% LPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 51% CPC 19% LPC 15% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 51% CPC 19% LPC 15% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 51% CPC 19% LPC 15% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 51% CPC 19% LPC 16% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 51% CPC 19% LPC 16% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 50% CPC 20% LPC 15% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 50% CPC 19% LPC 16% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 49% CPC 19% LPC 17% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 50% CPC 19% LPC 16% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 50% CPC 19% LPC 15% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-09-15

Odds of winning | Abitibi—Témiscamingue

LPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ September 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15

Recent electoral history | Abitibi—Témiscamingue



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 45.5% 50.6% 50% ± 8% LPC 24.8% 24.1% 15% ± 5% CPC 15.0% 11.7% 19% ± 6% NDP 10.2% 6.1% 8% ± 4% PPC 1.0% 3.4% 2% ± 2% GPC 3.6% 1.6% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.