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Canada


Abitibi–Témiscamingue (federal)


MP: Sébastien Lemire (BQ)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

BQ safe hold
Abitibi–Témiscamingue 52% ± 7%▲ 20% ± 5% 14% ± 5%▼ 8% ± 4% 4% ± 3% BQ 2021 50.63% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Abitibi–Témiscamingue >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Abitibi–Témiscamingue

LPC 20% ± 5% CPC 14% ± 5% NDP 8% ± 4% BQ 52% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Abitibi–Témiscamingue 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Abitibi–Témiscamingue

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Abitibi–Témiscamingue



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 19.4% 45.5% 50.63% 52% ± 7% LPC 29.6% 24.8% 24.11% 20% ± 5% CPC 6.9% 15.0% 11.69% 14% ± 5% NDP 41.5% 10.2% 6.08% 8% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.0% 3.36% 2% ± 2% GPC 1.7% 3.6% 1.64% 4% ± 3%