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Abitibi—Témiscamingue



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
BQ likely

Candidates | Abitibi—Témiscamingue


Liberal Jonathan Andresen
Conservative Steve Tardif
NDP Jeremie Juneau
Bloc Quebecois Sebastien Lemire*
Rhinoceros Vincent Palin-Bussieres

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Abitibi—Témiscamingue 42% ± 8% BQ 31% ± 7% LPC 21% ± 6% CPC 5% ± 3% NDP BQ 2021 50.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abitibi—Témiscamingue 97%▲ BQ 3%▼ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Abitibi—Témiscamingue

LPC 31% ± 7% CPC 21% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 42% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Abitibi—Témiscamingue 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 BQ 46% CPC 21% LPC 20% NDP 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 45% LPC 22% CPC 20% NDP 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 44% LPC 23% CPC 20% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 44% LPC 23% CPC 20% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 44% LPC 23% CPC 20% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 44% LPC 23% CPC 20% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 44% LPC 23% CPC 20% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 44% LPC 23% CPC 20% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 43% LPC 26% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 43% LPC 26% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 42% LPC 27% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 42% LPC 27% CPC 20% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 41% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 40% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 41% LPC 28% CPC 20% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 41% LPC 29% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 40% LPC 29% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 40% LPC 30% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 40% LPC 30% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 40% LPC 30% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 40% LPC 30% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 40% LPC 30% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 20% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 19% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 42% LPC 31% CPC 20% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 42% LPC 31% CPC 20% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 42% LPC 31% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 42% LPC 31% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 42% LPC 30% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 42% LPC 31% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 42% LPC 31% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 42% LPC 31% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Abitibi—Témiscamingue

LPC 3% NDP <1% BQ 97% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Abitibi—Témiscamingue



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 45.5% 50.6% 42% ± 8% LPC 24.8% 24.1% 31% ± 7% CPC 15.0% 11.7% 21% ± 6% NDP 10.2% 6.1% 5% ± 3% PPC 1.0% 3.4% 0% ± 0% GPC 3.6% 1.6% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.