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Canada

Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke


Liberal Cyndi Mills
Conservative Cheryl Gallant*
NDP Eileen Jones-Whyte
Green Danilo Velasquez
United Randy Briand
Independent Stefan Klietsch
Independent Seth Malina

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke 59% ± 8%▲ CPC 28% ± 7% LPC 9% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 49.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke

LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 59% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 59% LPC 18% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% LPC 19% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 58% LPC 21% NDP 12% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 57% LPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 57% LPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 58% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 59% LPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 52.7% 49.5% 59% ± 8% LPC 19.6% 19.4% 28% ± 7% NDP 14.9% 21.0% 9% ± 4% GPC 5.5% 1.9% 3% ± 3% PPC 2.5% 7.6% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.