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Canada

Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke


MP elect: Cheryl Gallant (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke


Liberal Cyndi Mills
Conservative Cheryl Gallant*
NDP Eileen Jones-Whyte
Green Danilo Velasquez
United Randy Briand
Independent Stefan Klietsch
Independent Seth Malina

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke 56% ± 6%▲ CPC 38% ± 6%▼ LPC 4% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 55.7% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke

LPC 38% ± 6% CPC 56% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 64% NDP 20% LPC 7% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 64% NDP 20% LPC 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 64% NDP 20% LPC 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 61% NDP 19% LPC 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 60% NDP 18% LPC 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 60% NDP 16% LPC 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 60% LPC 17% NDP 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 59% LPC 18% NDP 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 59% LPC 18% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% LPC 19% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 58% LPC 21% NDP 12% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 57% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 57% LPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 57% LPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 58% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 59% LPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 60% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 59% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 60% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 55% LPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 55% LPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 55% LPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 56% LPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 56% ± 6% 52.7% 49.5% 55.7% LPC 38% ± 6% 19.6% 19.4% 37.8% NDP 4% ± 2% 14.9% 21.0% 3.7% IND 2% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.5% 1.9% 0.9% PPC 0% ± 0% 2.5% 7.6% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.