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Canada

Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC leaning
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 36% ± 7% CPC 31% ± 7% NDP 24% ± 6% LPC 5% ± 6% PPC 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 32.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 81%▲ CPC 19%▼ NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

LPC 24% ± 6% CPC 36% ± 7% NDP 31% ± 7% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC 5% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 36% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 36% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 36% NDP 32% LPC 25% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 35% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 35% NDP 32% LPC 25% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 35% NDP 33% LPC 25% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 35% NDP 33% LPC 24% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 36% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 35% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

LPC <1% CPC 81% NDP 19% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 75% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 71% NDP 29% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 73% NDP 27% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 64% NDP 35% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 60% NDP 40% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 76% NDP 23% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 77% NDP 23% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 80% NDP 20% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 81% NDP 19% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 34.4% 32.0% 24% ± 6% NDP 35.7% 30.3% 31% ± 7% CPC 22.0% 26.9% 36% ± 7% PPC 2.3% 8.9% 5% ± 6% GPC 5.5% 1.7% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.