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Canada

Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt



Latest projection: December 29, 2024
CPC leaning
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 38% ± 7% CPC 34% ± 7% NDP 19% ± 5% LPC 4% ± 5% PPC 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 32.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 76%▲ CPC 24%▼ NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

LPC 19% ± 5% CPC 38% ± 7% NDP 34% ± 7% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 36% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 36% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 36% NDP 32% LPC 25% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 35% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 35% NDP 32% LPC 25% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 35% NDP 33% LPC 25% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 35% NDP 33% LPC 24% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 36% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 35% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 35% NDP 33% LPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 35% NDP 32% LPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 35% NDP 32% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 25% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 35% NDP 30% LPC 25% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 37% NDP 29% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 39% NDP 30% LPC 22% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 38% NDP 30% LPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 37% NDP 30% LPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 37% NDP 30% LPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 37% NDP 31% LPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 37% NDP 30% LPC 23% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 24% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 37% NDP 31% LPC 22% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 38% NDP 31% LPC 22% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 37% NDP 32% LPC 21% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 37% NDP 32% LPC 21% PPC 5% GPC 4% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 19% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 19% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-12-29

Odds of winning | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

LPC <1% CPC 76% NDP 24% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 75% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 71% NDP 29% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 73% NDP 27% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 64% NDP 35% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 60% NDP 40% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 76% NDP 23% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 77% NDP 23% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 80% NDP 20% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 81% NDP 19% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 81% NDP 19% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 68% NDP 32% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 70% NDP 30% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 70% NDP 30% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 69% NDP 30% LPC 1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC 1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 84% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 94% NDP 6% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 87% NDP 13% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 82% NDP 18% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 81% NDP 19% LPC <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2024-12-29

Recent electoral history | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 22.0% 26.9% 38% ± 7% NDP 35.7% 30.3% 34% ± 7% LPC 34.4% 32.0% 19% ± 5% PPC 2.3% 8.9% 4% ± 5% GPC 5.5% 1.7% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.