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Canada

Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt


MP: Jim Belanger (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 47% ± 8% 22.0% 26.9% 48.3% LPC 42% ± 8% 34.4% 32.0% 41.6% NDP 9% ± 5% 35.7% 30.3% 8.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.5% 1.7% 0.8% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.3% 8.9% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt


Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 47% ± 8% CPC 42% ± 8% LPC 9% ± 5% NDP CPC 2025 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 77% CPC 23% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

LPC 42% ± 8% CPC 47% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 20% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 39% NDP 32% LPC 21% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 38% NDP 31% LPC 21% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 37% NDP 30% LPC 25% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 35% NDP 28% LPC 28% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 35% LPC 32% NDP 25% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 23% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 28% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 28% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 32% LPC 32% NDP 26% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 35% CPC 32% NDP 25% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 25% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 24% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 24% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 24% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 24% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 40% CPC 32% NDP 21% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 40% CPC 32% NDP 21% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41% CPC 31% NDP 20% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 42% CPC 32% NDP 19% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 42% CPC 32% NDP 19% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 43% CPC 32% NDP 18% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 18% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 44% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 45% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 45% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 47% CPC 31% NDP 17% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 46% CPC 31% NDP 17% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 46% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 47% CPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 47% CPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 47% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

LPC 23% CPC 77% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 87% NDP 13% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 89% NDP 11% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 88% NDP 12% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 88% NDP 11% LPC 1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 86% NDP 8% LPC 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 73% LPC 26% NDP 1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 12% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 55% LPC 32% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 49% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 72% CPC 27% NDP 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 78% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader