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Canada


Thornhill (federal)


MP: Melissa Lantsman (CPC)


Latest projection: October 1, 2023

CPC safe hold
Thornhill 58% ± 7%▲ 29% ± 6%▼ 6% ± 3% 4% ± 3% 3% ± 3% CPC 2021 51.35% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 1, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Thornhill >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | October 1, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thornhill

LPC 29% ± 6% CPC 58% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Thornhill 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Thornhill

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Thornhill



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 58.6% 54.6% 51.35% 58% ± 7% LPC 33.8% 35.4% 36.28% 29% ± 6% NDP 5.2% 6.5% 6.05% 6% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 0.0% 4.64% 3% ± 3% GPC 1.2% 3.0% 1.69% 4% ± 3%