logo
Canada

Recent electoral history | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 42% ± 7% 22.0% 26.9% 48.3% LPC 42% ± 7% 34.4% 32.0% 41.6% NDP 12% ± 5% 35.7% 30.3% 8.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.3% 8.9% 0.8%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Canada flag

338Canada Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt projection

Latest update: March 8, 2026

Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 35% 49% 42% ± 7% CPC 35% 48% 42% ± 7% LPC 8% 17% 12% ± 5% NDP CPC 2025 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 53%▼ CPC 47%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

LPC 42% ± 7% CPC 42% ± 7% NDP 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 46% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 11% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 11% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 46% LPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 45% LPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 46% LPC 40% NDP 12% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 12% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 43% LPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 43% LPC 36% NDP 16% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 43% LPC 36% NDP 16% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 43% LPC 36% NDP 16% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 16% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 12% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 12% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 12% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 12% 2026-03-08

Odds of winning | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

LPC 47% CPC 53% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2026-03-08


Flag of Canada

Demographic data | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 79.9% English 19.0% French 0.4% Algonquian 0.1% German 0.1% Spanish 0.1% Polish 0.0% CantoneseSudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 10.9% No diploma 27.0% High school 9.4% Trade 36.6% College / Cégep 1.3% Some university 11.3% Bachelor's 3.4% PostgraduateSudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 98.4% Not visible minority 1.6% Visible minority 0.5% Black 0.3% South Asian 0.2% Southeast Asian 0.1% Chinese 0.1% Other 0.1% FilipinoSudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 49.9% Catholic 30.6% No Religion 4.5% United Church 3.8% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.0% Anglican 1.8% Other Christian 1.2% Indigenous Spirituality 0.9% PentecostalSudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 77.7% Owner 19.8% Renter 2.5% Community housingSudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 51.0% Employed 43.7% Not in labour force 5.4% UnemployedSudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 81.6% Non-Indigenous 18.4% Indigenous identity 10.2% First Nations 7.7% Metis 0.3% Multiple 0.2% Others 0.1% InukSudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 92.2% Car / truck / van 3.7% Walking 2.7% Other 1.0% Public transit 0.4% BicycleSudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.