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Canada

Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt


MP elect: Jim Belanger (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt


Liberal Marc Serre*
Conservative Jim Belanger
NDP Andreane Chenier
Green Himal Hossain
PPC Shari St. Louis

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 48% ± 6%▼ CPC 42% ± 6%▲ LPC 8% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 90%▼ CPC 10%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

LPC 42% ± 6% CPC 48% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 20% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 39% NDP 32% LPC 21% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 38% NDP 31% LPC 21% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 37% NDP 30% LPC 25% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 35% NDP 28% LPC 28% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 35% LPC 32% NDP 25% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 23% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 28% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 28% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 32% LPC 32% NDP 26% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 35% CPC 32% NDP 25% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 25% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 24% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 24% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 24% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 24% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 40% CPC 32% NDP 21% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 40% CPC 32% NDP 21% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41% CPC 31% NDP 20% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 42% CPC 32% NDP 19% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 42% CPC 32% NDP 19% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 43% CPC 32% NDP 18% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 18% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 44% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 45% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 45% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 47% CPC 31% NDP 17% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 46% CPC 31% NDP 17% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 46% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 47% CPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 47% CPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 47% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 46% CPC 32% NDP 17% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

LPC 10% CPC 90% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 87% NDP 13% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 89% NDP 11% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 88% NDP 12% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 88% NDP 11% LPC 1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 86% NDP 8% LPC 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 73% LPC 26% NDP 1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 12% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 55% LPC 32% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 49% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 72% CPC 27% NDP 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 78% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 48% ± 6% 22.0% 26.9% 48.3% LPC 42% ± 6% 34.4% 32.0% 41.6% NDP 8% ± 3% 35.7% 30.3% 8.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.3% 8.9% 0.8% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.5% 1.7% 0.8% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.