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Canada

Edmonton Northwest


MP: Billy Morin (CPC)

Latest projection: November 2, 2025
CPC likely

Recent electoral history | Edmonton Northwest


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 49% ± 8% 58.6% 43.1% 53.4% LPC 39% ± 7% 21.8% 22.9% 38.3% NDP 10% ± 5% 15.1% 27.6% 6.6% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.1% 6.2% 1.1% GPC 1% ± 1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Edmonton-Nord-Ouest


Edmonton Northwest 49% ± 8% CPC 39% ± 7% LPC 10% ± 5% NDP CPC 2025 53.4% 338Canada vote projection | November 2, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Edmonton Northwest 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 2, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Edmonton Northwest

LPC 39% ± 7% CPC 49% ± 8% NDP 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Edmonton Northwest 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 2, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 55% NDP 24% LPC 18% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 56% NDP 23% LPC 18% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 56% NDP 23% LPC 18% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 55% NDP 23% LPC 19% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 54% NDP 22% LPC 21% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 54% NDP 21% LPC 21% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% LPC 22% NDP 19% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 52% LPC 25% NDP 19% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 25% NDP 19% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 47% LPC 39% NDP 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 47% LPC 39% NDP 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 11% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 10% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 46% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 53% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 50% LPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 10% 2025-11-02 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Edmonton Northwest

LPC 5% CPC 95% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 2, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader