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Canada

Vancouver Centre


MP: Hedy Fry (LPC)

Latest projection: June 8, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Vancouver Centre


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 55% ± 8% 42.3% 40.7% 55.2% CPC 31% ± 7% 19.6% 21.9% 30.3% NDP 13% ± 5% 23.5% 30.3% 12.6% GPC 1% ± 2% 12.3% 3.8% 1.4% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.3% 3.3% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Vancouver-Centre


Vancouver Centre 55% ± 8% LPC 31% ± 7%▲ CPC 13% ± 5% NDP LPC 2025 55.2% 338Canada vote projection | June 8, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver Centre >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 8, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Centre

LPC 55% ± 8% CPC 31% ± 7% NDP 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Centre 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 35% LPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 36% LPC 31% NDP 28% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 35% LPC 31% NDP 28% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 34% LPC 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 36% CPC 33% NDP 25% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 39% CPC 31% NDP 24% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 42% CPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 46% CPC 27% NDP 21% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 46% CPC 27% NDP 21% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 48% CPC 27% NDP 19% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 27% NDP 15% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 54% CPC 27% NDP 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 27% NDP 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% CPC 27% NDP 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 27% NDP 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 55% CPC 27% NDP 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 11% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 26% NDP 11% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 11% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 60% CPC 26% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 63% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 64% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 64% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 63% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 26% NDP 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 62% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 63% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 61% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 61% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 61% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 61% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 61% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 61% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 61% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 55% CPC 31% NDP 13% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Vancouver Centre

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 76% LPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 77% LPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 74% LPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 60% LPC 37% NDP 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 69% CPC 30% NDP 1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader