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Canada

Vancouver Centre


Latest projection: September 8, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Vancouver Centre 34% ± 7%▲ LPC 33% ± 7%▼ CPC 25% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 40.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver Centre 53%▲ LPC 46%▼ CPC 1% NDP Odds of winning | September 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Centre

LPC 34% ± 7% CPC 33% ± 7% NDP 25% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC September 8, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 39% LPC 29% NDP 25% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 38% LPC 29% NDP 26% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 37% LPC 30% NDP 26% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 36% LPC 31% NDP 26% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 36% LPC 31% NDP 26% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 35% LPC 32% NDP 26% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 34% LPC 31% NDP 28% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 33% LPC 31% NDP 27% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 33% LPC 32% NDP 27% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 33% LPC 32% NDP 27% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 33% LPC 32% NDP 27% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 33% LPC 32% NDP 27% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 32% LPC 32% NDP 28% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 33% LPC 32% NDP 27% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 33% LPC 32% NDP 28% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 33% LPC 32% NDP 27% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 34% LPC 33% NDP 25% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 34% CPC 33% NDP 25% GPC 5% 2024-09-08

Odds of winning | Vancouver Centre

LPC 53% CPC 46% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 8, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP 1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 88% LPC 11% NDP 1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 83% LPC 15% NDP 1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 78% LPC 20% NDP 2% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 73% LPC 26% NDP 1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 68% LPC 27% NDP 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 60% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 59% LPC 36% NDP 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 54% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 54% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 54% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 57% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 52% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 54% LPC 45% NDP 1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 53% CPC 46% NDP 1% 2024-09-08

Recent electoral history | Vancouver Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.3% 40.7% 34% ± 7% NDP 23.5% 30.3% 25% ± 6% CPC 19.6% 21.9% 33% ± 7% GPC 12.3% 3.8% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.3% 3.3% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.