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Canada


Louis-Saint-Laurent (federal)


MP: Gérard Deltell (CPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC safe hold
Louis-Saint-Laurent 56% ± 7%▼ 20% ± 6% 13% ± 4%▼ 6% ± 4% 3% ± 2% CPC 2021 51.64% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Louis-Saint-Laurent >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Louis-Saint-Laurent

LPC 13% ± 4% CPC 56% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 4% BQ 20% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Louis-Saint-Laurent 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Louis-Saint-Laurent

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Louis-Saint-Laurent



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 50.5% 44.7% 51.64% 56% ± 7% BQ 10.3% 22.4% 20.39% 20% ± 6% LPC 21.4% 20.7% 17.52% 13% ± 4% NDP 15.9% 6.6% 5.26% 6% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 2.4% 2.09% 1% ± 1% GPC 1.9% 3.3% 1.42% 3% ± 2%