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Canada

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ likely
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 36% ± 7% BQ 29% ± 6% LPC 20% ± 5% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 44.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 93%▲ BQ 7%▼ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LPC 29% ± 6% CPC 20% ± 5% NDP 12% ± 4% BQ 36% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 36% BQ 33% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 36% BQ 35% CPC 17% NDP 10% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 37% BQ 34% CPC 17% NDP 10% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 38% BQ 32% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 38% BQ 31% CPC 19% NDP 10% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 38% BQ 30% CPC 19% NDP 10% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 34% BQ 31% CPC 22% NDP 11% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 35% BQ 31% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 35% BQ 31% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 34% BQ 30% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 35% BQ 30% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 36% BQ 29% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 36% BQ 30% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 35% BQ 30% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 34% LPC 33% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 34% LPC 31% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 34% LPC 31% CPC 20% NDP 12% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 34% LPC 32% CPC 19% NDP 12% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 35% LPC 32% CPC 19% NDP 11% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 35% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 11% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 35% LPC 32% CPC 19% NDP 11% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 36% LPC 32% CPC 19% NDP 11% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 35% LPC 31% CPC 19% NDP 11% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 36% LPC 30% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 35% LPC 30% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 36% LPC 29% CPC 20% NDP 12% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 36% LPC 29% CPC 20% NDP 12% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LPC 7% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 93% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 55% BQ 45% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 71% BQ 29% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 85% BQ 15% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 69% BQ 31% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 58% BQ 42% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 58% BQ 42% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 63% BQ 37% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 63% BQ 37% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 63% BQ 36% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 77% BQ 23% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 79% BQ 21% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 77% BQ 22% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 86% BQ 14% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 93% BQ 7% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 88% BQ 12% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 82% BQ 18% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 70% LPC 30% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 77% LPC 23% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 86% LPC 14% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 86% LPC 14% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 92% LPC 8% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 93% LPC 7% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.5% 44.1% 29% ± 6% BQ 32.4% 30.8% 36% ± 7% CPC 9.7% 11.7% 20% ± 5% NDP 8.5% 8.6% 12% ± 4% PPC 0.8% 2.9% 1% ± 2% GPC 3.8% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.