logo
logo
Canada

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
Toss up LPC/BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 33% ± 7% LPC 32% ± 7% BQ 21% ± 5% CPC 10% ± 4%▼ NDP LPC 2021 44.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 63% LPC 37% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 21% ± 5% NDP 10% ± 4% BQ 32% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 36% BQ 33% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 36% BQ 35% CPC 17% NDP 10% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 37% BQ 34% CPC 17% NDP 10% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 38% BQ 32% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 38% BQ 31% CPC 19% NDP 10% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 38% BQ 30% CPC 19% NDP 10% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 34% BQ 31% CPC 22% NDP 11% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LPC 63% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 37% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 55% BQ 45% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 71% BQ 29% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 85% BQ 15% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 69% BQ 31% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 58% BQ 42% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 58% BQ 42% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 63% BQ 37% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 63% BQ 37% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.5% 44.1% 33% ± 7% BQ 32.4% 30.8% 32% ± 7% CPC 9.7% 11.7% 21% ± 5% NDP 8.5% 8.6% 10% ± 4% PPC 0.8% 2.9% 1% ± 2% GPC 3.8% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.