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Canada

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin


Liberal Carlos Leitao
Conservative Janina Moran
NDP Alexandrah Cardona-Fortin
Bloc Quebecois Claude Tousignant

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 56% ± 8% LPC 20% ± 5% BQ 19% ± 6% CPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 44.1% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marc-Aurèle-Fortin >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LPC 56% ± 8% CPC 19% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 4% BQ 20% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 41% BQ 28% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 42% BQ 28% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 44% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 45% BQ 26% CPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 45% BQ 26% CPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 45% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 48% BQ 26% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 48% BQ 26% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 48% BQ 25% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 49% BQ 24% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 50% BQ 24% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% BQ 23% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 50% BQ 23% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% BQ 21% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% BQ 21% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 57% BQ 20% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% BQ 20% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.5% 44.1% 56% ± 8% BQ 32.4% 30.8% 20% ± 5% CPC 9.7% 11.7% 19% ± 6% NDP 8.5% 8.6% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.8% 2.9% 0% ± 0% GPC 3.8% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.