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Canada

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin


MP: Carlos Leitao (LPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 52% ± 8% 44.5% 44.1% 52.0% BQ 24% ± 6% 32.4% 30.8% 23.6% CPC 21% ± 6% 9.7% 11.7% 20.7% NDP 4% ± 3% 8.5% 8.6% 3.7% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.8% 2.9% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.


Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 52% ± 8% LPC 24% ± 6% BQ 21% ± 6% CPC 4% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 52.0% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marc-Aurèle-Fortin >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LPC 52% ± 8% CPC 21% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 3% BQ 24% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 37% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 10% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 37% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 10% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 36% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 10% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 36% LPC 28% CPC 22% NDP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 33% LPC 32% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 35% BQ 33% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 37% BQ 31% CPC 21% NDP 8% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 40% BQ 29% CPC 20% NDP 8% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 41% BQ 28% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 42% BQ 28% CPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 44% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 45% BQ 26% CPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 45% BQ 26% CPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 45% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 48% BQ 26% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 48% BQ 26% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 48% BQ 25% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 49% BQ 24% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 50% BQ 24% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% BQ 23% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 50% BQ 23% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% BQ 21% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% BQ 21% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 57% BQ 20% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% BQ 20% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 55% BQ 21% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 55% BQ 21% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 55% BQ 21% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 54% BQ 21% CPC 20% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 54% BQ 21% CPC 20% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 53% BQ 21% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 53% CPC 21% BQ 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 53% CPC 21% BQ 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 54% BQ 21% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 52% BQ 23% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 52% BQ 24% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 52% BQ 24% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 52% BQ 24% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 52% BQ 24% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 4% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 5% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 8% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 43% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 66% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 84% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 97% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 98% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader