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Canada


Kitchener Centre (federal)


MP: Mike Morrice (GPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

GPC likely hold
Kitchener Centre 39% ± 8%▲ 26% ± 6% 17% ± 5%▼ 15% ± 5%▲ 3% ± 3% GPC 2021 34.85% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Kitchener Centre 98% 2% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 26% ± 6% NDP 15% ± 5% GPC 39% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

LPC <1% CPC 2% NDP <1% GPC 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre



2015 2019 2021 Proj. GPC 3.1% 26.0% 34.85% 39% ± 8% CPC 30.4% 23.8% 24.45% 26% ± 6% NDP 16.6% 11.3% 17.43% 15% ± 5% LPC 48.8% 36.7% 16.18% 17% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.9% 6.79% 3% ± 3%