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Canada


Kitchener Centre (federal)


MP: Mike Morrice (GPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

GPC likely hold
Kitchener Centre 35% ± 8% 24% ± 6% 23% ± 6% 14% ± 5% 3% ± 3% GPC 2021 34.85% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Kitchener Centre 97% 2% 1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

LPC 23% ± 6% CPC 24% ± 6% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 35% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

LPC 1% CPC 2% NDP <1% GPC 97% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre



2015 2019 2021 Proj. GPC 3.1% 26.0% 34.85% 35% ± 8% CPC 30.4% 23.8% 24.45% 24% ± 6% NDP 16.6% 11.3% 17.43% 14% ± 5% LPC 48.8% 36.7% 16.18% 23% ± 6% PPC 0.0% 1.9% 6.79% 3% ± 3%