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Bloc Québécois





Last update: February 5, 2023

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20217.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection7.0% ± 0.7% (QC: 29.6% ± 3.9%)
Current number of MP's32
Current seat projection32 [25-36]

Popular vote projection | February 5, 2023

21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 25.7% 29.6% ± 3.9% 2021 32.1% Max. 33.5% Probabilities % BQ

Seat projection | February 5, 2023

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 25 2021 32 seats 32 Max. 36 Probabilities % BQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ safe hold >99%
2. Joliette BQ safe hold >99%
3. Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel BQ safe hold >99%
4. Montcalm BQ safe hold >99%
5. Beloeil–Chambly BQ safe hold >99%
6. Drummond BQ safe hold >99%
7. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe hold >99%
8. Manicouagan BQ safe hold >99%
9. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ safe hold >99%
10. Laurentides–Labelle BQ safe hold >99%
11. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ safe hold >99%
12. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ safe hold >99%
13. Mirabel BQ safe hold >99%
14. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ safe hold >99%
15. Repentigny BQ safe hold >99%
16. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe hold >99%
17. Salaberry–Suroît BQ safe hold >99%
18. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ safe hold >99%
19. Saint-Jean BQ likely hold 99%
20. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold 95%
21. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely hold 95%
22. Jonquière BQ likely hold 92%
23. Terrebonne BQ likely hold 92%
24. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning hold 86%
25. Montarville BQ leaning hold 85%
26. Shefford BQ leaning hold 83%
27. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ leaning hold 83%
28. La Prairie BQ leaning hold 80%
29. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ leaning hold 78%
30. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ leaning hold 71%
31. Beauport–Limoilou BQ leaning hold 70%
32. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ 48%
33. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ 31%
34. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning hold 29%
35. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning hold 17%
36. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning hold 10%
37. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely hold 7%
38. Québec LPC likely hold 7%
39. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC likely hold 6%
40. Hochelaga LPC likely hold 5%
41. Sherbrooke LPC likely hold 3%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ safe hold
2. Joliette BQ safe hold
3. Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel BQ safe hold
4. Montcalm BQ safe hold
5. Beloeil–Chambly BQ safe hold
6. Drummond BQ safe hold
7. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe hold
8. Manicouagan BQ safe hold
9. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ safe hold
10. Laurentides–Labelle BQ safe hold
11. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ safe hold
12. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ safe hold
13. Mirabel BQ safe hold
14. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ safe hold
15. Repentigny BQ safe hold
16. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe hold
17. Salaberry–Suroît BQ safe hold
18. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ safe hold
19. Saint-Jean BQ likely hold
20. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold
21. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely hold
22. Jonquière BQ likely hold
23. Terrebonne BQ likely hold
24. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning hold
25. Montarville BQ leaning hold
26. Shefford BQ leaning hold
27. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ leaning hold
28. La Prairie BQ leaning hold
29. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ leaning hold
30. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ leaning hold
31. Beauport–Limoilou BQ leaning hold
32. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ
33. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ
34. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning hold
35. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation LPC leaning hold
36. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne LPC leaning hold
37. Compton–Stanstead LPC likely hold
38. Québec LPC likely hold
39. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LPC likely hold
40. Hochelaga LPC likely hold
41. Sherbrooke LPC likely hold