Bloc Québécois

Last update: February 5, 2023

Leader	Yves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 2021	7.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection	7.0% ± 0.7% (QC: 29.6% ± 3.9%)
Current number of MP's	32
Current seat projection	32 [25-36]

Popular vote projection | February 5, 2023

Seat projection | February 5, 2023

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia	BQ safe hold	>99%
2.	Joliette	BQ safe hold	>99%
3.	Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel	BQ safe hold	>99%
4.	Montcalm	BQ safe hold	>99%
5.	Beloeil–Chambly	BQ safe hold	>99%
6.	Drummond	BQ safe hold	>99%
7.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe hold	>99%
8.	Manicouagan	BQ safe hold	>99%
9.	Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères	BQ safe hold	>99%
10.	Laurentides–Labelle	BQ safe hold	>99%
11.	Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot	BQ safe hold	>99%
12.	Abitibi–Témiscamingue	BQ safe hold	>99%
13.	Mirabel	BQ safe hold	>99%
14.	Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques	BQ safe hold	>99%
15.	Repentigny	BQ safe hold	>99%
16.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold	>99%
17.	Salaberry–Suroît	BQ safe hold	>99%
18.	Berthier–Maskinongé	BQ safe hold	>99%
19.	Saint-Jean	BQ likely hold	99%
20.	Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou	BQ likely hold	95%
21.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ likely hold	95%
22.	Jonquière	BQ likely hold	92%
23.	Terrebonne	BQ likely hold	92%
24.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix	BQ leaning hold	86%
25.	Montarville	BQ leaning hold	85%
26.	Shefford	BQ leaning hold	83%
27.	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	BQ leaning hold	83%
28.	La Prairie	BQ leaning hold	80%
29.	Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ leaning hold	78%
30.	Longueuil–Saint-Hubert	BQ leaning hold	71%
31.	Beauport–Limoilou	BQ leaning hold	70%
32.	Trois-Rivières	Toss up CPC/BQ	48%
33.	Châteauguay–Lacolle	Toss up LPC/BQ	31%
34.	Brome–Missisquoi	LPC leaning hold	29%
35.	Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation	LPC leaning hold	17%
36.	Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne	LPC leaning hold	10%
37.	Compton–Stanstead	LPC likely hold	7%
38.	Québec	LPC likely hold	7%
39.	Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	LPC likely hold	6%
40.	Hochelaga	LPC likely hold	5%
41.	Sherbrooke	LPC likely hold	3%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia	BQ safe hold
2.	Joliette	BQ safe hold
3.	Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel	BQ safe hold
4.	Montcalm	BQ safe hold
5.	Beloeil–Chambly	BQ safe hold
6.	Drummond	BQ safe hold
7.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe hold
8.	Manicouagan	BQ safe hold
9.	Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères	BQ safe hold
10.	Laurentides–Labelle	BQ safe hold
11.	Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot	BQ safe hold
12.	Abitibi–Témiscamingue	BQ safe hold
13.	Mirabel	BQ safe hold
14.	Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques	BQ safe hold
15.	Repentigny	BQ safe hold
16.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold
17.	Salaberry–Suroît	BQ safe hold
18.	Berthier–Maskinongé	BQ safe hold
19.	Saint-Jean	BQ likely hold
20.	Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou	BQ likely hold
21.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ likely hold
22.	Jonquière	BQ likely hold
23.	Terrebonne	BQ likely hold
24.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix	BQ leaning hold
25.	Montarville	BQ leaning hold
26.	Shefford	BQ leaning hold
27.	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	BQ leaning hold
28.	La Prairie	BQ leaning hold
29.	Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ leaning hold
30.	Longueuil–Saint-Hubert	BQ leaning hold
31.	Beauport–Limoilou	BQ leaning hold
32.	Trois-Rivières	Toss up CPC/BQ
33.	Châteauguay–Lacolle	Toss up LPC/BQ
34.	Brome–Missisquoi	LPC leaning hold
35.	Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation	LPC leaning hold
36.	Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne	LPC leaning hold
37.	Compton–Stanstead	LPC likely hold
38.	Québec	LPC likely hold
39.	Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	LPC likely hold
40.	Hochelaga	LPC likely hold
41.	Sherbrooke	LPC likely hold