Bloc Québécois

Latest update: July 6, 2025
Leader | Yves-François Blanchet |
National popular vote in 2025 | 6.3% (QC: 27.9%) |
Current vote projection | 6.0% ± 0.7% (QC: 26.3% ± 3.9%) |
Current number of MP's | 22 |
Current seat projection | 21 [11-27] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.
Popular vote projection | July 6, 2025
Seat projection | July 6, 2025
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | 2025 winner | Last projection | Odds of winning |
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1. | Abitibi—Témiscamingue | ![]() |
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BQ likely | >99% |
2. | Montcalm | ![]() |
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BQ likely | >99% |
3. | Lac-Saint-Jean | ![]() |
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BQ likely | >99% |
4. | Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak | ![]() |
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BQ likely | >99% |
5. | Joliette—Manawan | ![]() |
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BQ likely | 99% |
6. | Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan | ![]() |
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BQ likely | 97% |
7. | Drummond | ![]() |
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BQ likely | 96% |
8. | Jonquière | ![]() |
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BQ likely | 95% |
9. | Beloeil—Chambly | ![]() |
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BQ likely | 94% |
10. | Berthier—Maskinongé | ![]() |
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BQ likely | 91% |
11. | Rivière-du-Nord | ![]() |
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BQ likely | 90% |
12. | Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon | ![]() |
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BQ leaning | 89% |
13. | Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton | ![]() |
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BQ leaning | 81% |
14. | Rimouski—La Matapédia | ![]() |
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BQ leaning | 81% |
15. | Saint-Jean | ![]() |
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BQ leaning | 81% |
16. | Laurentides—Labelle | ![]() |
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BQ leaning | 77% |
17. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 62% |
18. | Mirabel | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 62% |
19. | Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 61% |
20. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 51% |
21. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 39% |
22. | Repentigny | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 37% |
23. | Shefford | ![]() |
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LPC leaning | 22% |
24. | Terrebonne | ![]() |
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LPC leaning | 18% |
25. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 13% |
26. | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert | ![]() |
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LPC leaning | 13% |
27. | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou | ![]() |
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LPC likely | 3% |
28. | Les Pays-d’en-Haut | ![]() |
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LPC likely | 3% |