Bloc Québécois

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe	>99%
2.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ safe	>99%
3.	Montcalm	BQ safe	>99%
4.	Mirabel	BQ safe	>99%
5.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ likely	>99%
6.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	>99%
7.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ likely	>99%
8.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ likely	>99%
9.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ likely	>99%
10.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ likely	>99%
11.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ likely	99%
12.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	BQ likely	99%
13.	Drummond	BQ likely	99%
14.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	BQ likely	98%
15.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ likely	98%
16.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ likely	98%
17.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ likely	97%
18.	Saint-Jean	BQ likely	97%
19.	Jonquière	BQ likely	95%
20.	Repentigny	BQ likely	95%
21.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	BQ likely	93%
22.	Terrebonne	BQ likely	92%
23.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	BQ leaning	89%
24.	La Prairie—Atateken	BQ leaning	81%
25.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles	Toss up LPC/BQ	58%
26.	Shefford	Toss up LPC/BQ	48%
27.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie	Toss up LPC/BQ	47%
28.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	Toss up CPC/BQ	46%
29.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	LPC leaning	29%
30.	Trois-Rivières	Toss up CPC/BQ	23%
31.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj	LPC leaning	21%
32.	Thérèse-De Blainville	LPC leaning	19%
33.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	CPC leaning	19%
34.	Beauport—Limoilou	CPC leaning	14%
35.	Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville	LPC likely	8%
36.	Brome—Missisquoi	LPC likely	3%