Bloc Québécois

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe	>99%
2.	Montcalm	BQ likely	>99%
3.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ likely	>99%
4.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ likely	99%
5.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ likely	98%
6.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ likely	98%
7.	Mirabel	BQ likely	96%
8.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ likely	96%
9.	Drummond	BQ likely	95%
10.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ likely	93%
11.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ likely	91%
12.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ likely	91%
13.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	BQ leaning	89%
14.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ leaning	86%
15.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ leaning	85%
16.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	BQ leaning	84%
17.	Saint-Jean	BQ leaning	77%
18.	Repentigny	BQ leaning	74%
19.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	BQ leaning	73%
20.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ leaning	71%
21.	Terrebonne	Toss up LPC/BQ	70%
22.	Jonquière	Toss up CPC/BQ	70%
23.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	Toss up LPC/BQ	48%
24.	La Prairie—Atateken	Toss up LPC/BQ	45%
25.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	Toss up LPC/BQ	38%
26.	Trois-Rivières	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	28%
27.	Thérèse-De Blainville	LPC leaning	28%
28.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	CPC leaning	27%
29.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie	LPC leaning	19%
30.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj	LPC leaning	16%
31.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles	LPC leaning	11%
32.	Beauport—Limoilou	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	11%
33.	Shefford	LPC likely	8%
34.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	CPC likely	8%
35.	Québec Centre	LPC likely	3%