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Canada

Bloc Québécois



Latest update: December 3, 2023

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20217.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection7.0% ± 0.7% (QC: 29.6% ± 3.9%)
Current number of MP's32
Current seat projection33 [27-40]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 3, 2023 45 40 35 30 25 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada ©2023 1.8 seat/% 33 [27-40] 30% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × BQ 33 [27-40] December 3, 2023 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 34/78 ON 0/121 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/34 BC 0/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | December 3, 2023

21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 25.7% 29.6% ± 3.9% 2021 32.1% Max. 33.5% Probabilities % BQ

Seat projection | December 3, 2023

20 25 30 35 40 45 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 27 2021 32 seats 33 Max. 40 Probabilities % BQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ safe hold >99%
2. Joliette BQ safe hold >99%
3. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ safe hold >99%
4. Beloeil–Chambly BQ safe hold >99%
5. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe hold >99%
6. Montcalm BQ safe hold >99%
7. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ safe hold >99%
8. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ safe hold >99%
9. Laurentides–Labelle BQ safe hold >99%
10. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ safe hold >99%
11. Mirabel BQ safe hold >99%
12. Repentigny BQ safe hold >99%
13. Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel BQ safe hold >99%
14. Salaberry–Suroît BQ safe hold >99%
15. Saint-Jean BQ safe hold >99%
16. Drummond BQ safe hold >99%
17. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ safe hold >99%
18. Manicouagan BQ safe hold >99%
19. Terrebonne BQ likely hold 99%
20. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold 99%
21. Shefford BQ likely hold 99%
22. Montarville BQ likely hold 98%
23. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ likely hold 98%
24. La Prairie BQ likely hold 98%
25. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely hold 97%
26. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely hold 96%
27. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely hold 96%
28. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ likely hold 96%
29. Brome–Missisquoi BQ leaning gain 80%
30. Châteauguay–Lacolle BQ leaning gain 77%
31. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ 63%
32. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ 62%
33. Compton–Stanstead Toss up LPC/BQ 55%
34. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 50%
35. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ 45%
36. Québec Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 37%
37. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ 37%
38. Sherbrooke LPC leaning hold 28%
39. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain 15%
40. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain 11%
41. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely hold 9%
42. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely hold 7%
43. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold 5%
44. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC 3%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ safe hold
2. Joliette BQ safe hold
3. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ safe hold
4. Beloeil–Chambly BQ safe hold
5. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe hold
6. Montcalm BQ safe hold
7. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ safe hold
8. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ safe hold
9. Laurentides–Labelle BQ safe hold
10. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ safe hold
11. Mirabel BQ safe hold
12. Repentigny BQ safe hold
13. Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel BQ safe hold
14. Salaberry–Suroît BQ safe hold
15. Saint-Jean BQ safe hold
16. Drummond BQ safe hold
17. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ safe hold
18. Manicouagan BQ safe hold
19. Terrebonne BQ likely hold
20. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold
21. Shefford BQ likely hold
22. Montarville BQ likely hold
23. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ likely hold
24. La Prairie BQ likely hold
25. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely hold
26. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely hold
27. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely hold
28. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ likely hold
29. Brome–Missisquoi BQ leaning gain
30. Châteauguay–Lacolle BQ leaning gain
31. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ
32. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ
33. Compton–Stanstead Toss up LPC/BQ
34. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
35. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ
36. Québec Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
37. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ
38. Sherbrooke LPC leaning hold
39. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain
40. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning gain
41. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC likely hold
42. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely hold
43. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold
44. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC