Bloc Québécois

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ likely	>99%
2.	Montcalm	BQ likely	>99%
3.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ likely	>99%
4.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ likely	>99%
5.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ likely	99%
6.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ likely	97%
7.	Drummond	BQ likely	96%
8.	Jonquière	BQ likely	95%
9.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ likely	94%
10.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	91%
11.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ likely	90%
12.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ leaning	89%
13.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	BQ leaning	81%
14.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ leaning	81%
15.	Saint-Jean	BQ leaning	81%
16.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ leaning	77%
17.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj	Toss up LPC/BQ	62%
18.	Mirabel	Toss up LPC/BQ	62%
19.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	Toss up LPC/BQ	61%
20.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	Toss up LPC/BQ	51%
21.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	39%
22.	Repentigny	Toss up LPC/BQ	37%
23.	Shefford	LPC leaning	22%
24.	Terrebonne	LPC leaning	18%
25.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	13%
26.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	LPC leaning	13%
27.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	LPC likely	3%
28.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	LPC likely	3%