Bloc Québécois

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe	>99%
2.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ likely	96%
3.	Montcalm	BQ likely	93%
4.	Drummond	BQ leaning	90%
5.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ leaning	86%
6.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ leaning	84%
7.	Mirabel	BQ leaning	83%
8.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ leaning	83%
9.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ leaning	81%
10.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ leaning	78%
11.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ leaning	74%
12.	Jonquière	BQ leaning	71%
13.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	Toss up LPC/BQ	69%
14.	Beloeil—Chambly	Toss up LPC/BQ	66%
15.	Laurentides—Labelle	Toss up LPC/BQ	64%
16.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	Toss up LPC/BQ	53%
17.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	Toss up LPC/BQ	43%
18.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	Toss up LPC/BQ	35%
19.	Saint-Jean	Toss up LPC/BQ	33%
20.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	LPC leaning	27%
21.	Terrebonne	LPC leaning	27%
22.	Repentigny	LPC leaning	25%
23.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	LPC leaning	22%
24.	La Prairie—Atateken	LPC likely	8%
25.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	CPC likely	3%
26.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles	LPC likely	2%
27.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	CPC leaning	1%