338Canada | Bloc Québécois





Last update: September 20, 2021

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20197.6% (QC: 32.5%)
Current vote projection7.0% ± 0.9% (QC: 30.1% ± 3.7%)
Current number of MP's32
Current seat projection32 ± 10



Vote Projection | Bloc Québécois | September 20, 2021




Seat Projection | Bloc Québécois | September 20, 2021




Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Joliette BQ safe >99%
2. Montcalm BQ safe >99%
3. Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel BQ safe >99%
4. Beloeil–Chambly BQ safe >99%
5. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe >99%
6. Manicouagan BQ safe >99%
7. Mirabel BQ safe >99%
8. Drummond BQ safe >99%
9. Repentigny BQ safe >99%
10. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ safe >99%
11. Terrebonne BQ safe >99%
12. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ safe >99%
13. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe >99%
14. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ safe >99%
15. Laurentides–Labelle BQ likely 99%
16. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely 99%
17. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely 99%
18. Jonquière BQ likely 99%
19. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ likely 98%
20. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ likely 97%
21. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ likely 96%
22. Saint-Jean BQ likely 96%
23. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely 95%
24. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ leaning 85%
25. Montarville BQ leaning 81%
26. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning 80%
27. La Prairie BQ leaning 77%
28. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ 67%
29. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ 61%
30. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up LPC/BQ 56%
31. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 55%
32. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ 43%
33. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 40%
34. Québec Toss up LPC/BQ 39%
35. Hochelaga Toss up LPC/BQ 39%
36. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ 37%
37. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ 35%
38. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ 34%
39. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ 32%
40. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 31%
41. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning 28%
42. Compton–Stanstead LPC leaning 24%
43. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC leaning 12%
44. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely 2%
45. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Joliette BQ safe
2. Montcalm BQ safe
3. Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel BQ safe
4. Beloeil–Chambly BQ safe
5. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe
6. Manicouagan BQ safe
7. Mirabel BQ safe
8. Drummond BQ safe
9. Repentigny BQ safe
10. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ safe
11. Terrebonne BQ safe
12. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ safe
13. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe
14. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ safe
15. Laurentides–Labelle BQ likely
16. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely
17. Salaberry–Suroît BQ likely
18. Jonquière BQ likely
19. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ likely
20. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ likely
21. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ likely
22. Saint-Jean BQ likely
23. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely
24. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ leaning
25. Montarville BQ leaning
26. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ leaning
27. La Prairie BQ leaning
28. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ
29. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ
30. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up LPC/BQ
31. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
32. Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ
33. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
34. Québec Toss up LPC/BQ
35. Hochelaga Toss up LPC/BQ
36. Châteauguay–Lacolle Toss up LPC/BQ
37. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ
38. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ
39. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ
40. Beauport–Limoilou Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
41. Brome–Missisquoi LPC leaning
42. Compton–Stanstead LPC leaning
43. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC leaning
44. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC likely
45. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely



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