Bloc Québécois

Latest update: December 3, 2023
Leader | Yves-François Blanchet |
National popular vote in 2021 | 7.6% (QC: 32.1%) |
Current vote projection | 7.0% ± 0.7% (QC: 29.6% ± 3.9%) |
Current number of MP's | 32 |
Current seat projection | 33 [27-40] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Popular vote projection | December 3, 2023
Seat projection | December 3, 2023
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
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1. | Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
2. | Joliette | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
3. | Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
4. | Beloeil–Chambly | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
5. | Rivière-du-Nord | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
6. | Montcalm | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
7. | Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
8. | Abitibi–Témiscamingue | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
9. | Laurentides–Labelle | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
10. | Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
11. | Mirabel | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
12. | Repentigny | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
13. | Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
14. | Salaberry–Suroît | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
15. | Saint-Jean | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
16. | Drummond | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
17. | Berthier–Maskinongé | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
18. | Manicouagan | ![]() |
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BQ safe hold | >99% |
19. | Terrebonne | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 99% |
20. | Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 99% |
21. | Shefford | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 99% |
22. | Montarville | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 98% |
23. | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 98% |
24. | La Prairie | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 98% |
25. | Thérèse-De Blainville | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 97% |
26. | Lac-Saint-Jean | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 96% |
27. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 96% |
28. | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert | ![]() |
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BQ likely hold | 96% |
29. | Brome–Missisquoi | ![]() |
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BQ leaning gain | 80% |
30. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | ![]() |
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BQ leaning gain | 77% |
31. | Jonquière | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/BQ | 63% |
32. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 62% |
33. | Compton–Stanstead | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 55% |
34. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix | ![]() |
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Toss up CPC/BQ | 50% |
35. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 45% |
36. | Québec | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 37% |
37. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/BQ | 37% |
38. | Sherbrooke | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 28% |
39. | Beauport–Limoilou | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 15% |
40. | Trois-Rivières | ![]() |
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CPC leaning gain | 11% |
41. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 9% |
42. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | ![]() |
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LPC likely hold | 7% |
43. | Hochelaga | ![]() |
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LPC leaning hold | 5% |
44. | Louis-Hébert | ![]() |
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Toss up LPC/CPC | 3% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
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1. | Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia | BQ safe hold |
2. | Joliette | BQ safe hold |
3. | Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères | BQ safe hold |
4. | Beloeil–Chambly | BQ safe hold |
5. | Rivière-du-Nord | BQ safe hold |
6. | Montcalm | BQ safe hold |
7. | Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques | BQ safe hold |
8. | Abitibi–Témiscamingue | BQ safe hold |
9. | Laurentides–Labelle | BQ safe hold |
10. | Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot | BQ safe hold |
11. | Mirabel | BQ safe hold |
12. | Repentigny | BQ safe hold |
13. | Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel | BQ safe hold |
14. | Salaberry–Suroît | BQ safe hold |
15. | Saint-Jean | BQ safe hold |
16. | Drummond | BQ safe hold |
17. | Berthier–Maskinongé | BQ safe hold |
18. | Manicouagan | BQ safe hold |
19. | Terrebonne | BQ likely hold |
20. | Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou | BQ likely hold |
21. | Shefford | BQ likely hold |
22. | Montarville | BQ likely hold |
23. | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | BQ likely hold |
24. | La Prairie | BQ likely hold |
25. | Thérèse-De Blainville | BQ likely hold |
26. | Lac-Saint-Jean | BQ likely hold |
27. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | BQ likely hold |
28. | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert | BQ likely hold |
29. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ leaning gain |
30. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | BQ leaning gain |
31. | Jonquière | Toss up CPC/BQ |
32. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | Toss up LPC/BQ |
33. | Compton–Stanstead | Toss up LPC/BQ |
34. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix | Toss up CPC/BQ |
35. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | Toss up LPC/BQ |
36. | Québec | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ |
37. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Toss up LPC/BQ |
38. | Sherbrooke | LPC leaning hold |
39. | Beauport–Limoilou | CPC leaning gain |
40. | Trois-Rivières | CPC leaning gain |
41. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | LPC likely hold |
42. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | LPC likely hold |
43. | Hochelaga | LPC leaning hold |
44. | Louis-Hébert | Toss up LPC/CPC |