logo
logo
Canada

Bloc Québécois



Latest update: December 15, 2024

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20217.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection8.4% ± 0.9% (QC: 35.4% ± 4.8%)
Current number of MP'sTBD
Current seat projection45 [38-50]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024 55 50 45 40 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada ©2023 6.0 seat/% [38-50] 35% ± 5% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ BQ [38-50] December 15, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 45/78 ON 0/122 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 0/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024

25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 30.6% ▼ 2021 32.1% 35.4% ± 4.8% ▼ Max. 40.2% ▼ Probabilities % BQ December 15, 2024

Seat projection | December 15, 2024

30 35 40 45 50 55 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 34 seats Min. 38 ▼ 45 ▼ Max. 50 ▼ Probabilities % BQ December 15, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe >99%
2. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe >99%
3. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe >99%
4. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe >99%
5. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe >99%
6. Montcalm BQ safe >99%
7. Repentigny BQ safe >99%
8. Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe >99%
9. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe >99%
10. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe >99%
11. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe >99%
12. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe >99%
13. Mirabel BQ safe >99%
14. La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe >99%
15. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe >99%
16. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ safe >99%
17. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe >99%
18. Saint-Jean BQ safe >99%
19. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe >99%
20. Terrebonne BQ safe >99%
21. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ safe >99%
22. Shefford BQ safe >99%
23. Drummond BQ safe >99%
24. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe >99%
25. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ safe >99%
26. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ safe >99%
27. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ safe >99%
28. Jonquière BQ likely >99%
29. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely >99%
30. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely >99%
31. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely >99%
32. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely 98%
33. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely 98%
34. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely 97%
35. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ likely 96%
36. Québec Centre BQ likely 94%
37. Sherbrooke BQ likely 94%
38. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ likely 93%
39. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ leaning 87%
40. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning 84%
41. Montmorency—Charlevoix BQ leaning 72%
42. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 64%
43. Alfred-Pellan Toss up LPC/BQ 62%
44. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 57%
45. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up NDP/BQ 51%
46. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ 44%
47. Vaudreuil Toss up LPC/BQ 35%
48. Ahuntsic-Cartierville Toss up LPC/BQ 31%
49. Louis-Hébert Toss up CPC/BQ 28%
50. Gatineau LPC likely 5%
51. Vimy LPC likely 5%
52. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC 5%
53. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC likely 4%
54. Laurier—Sainte-Marie NDP leaning 2%
55. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe
2. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe
3. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe
4. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe
5. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe
6. Montcalm BQ safe
7. Repentigny BQ safe
8. Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe
9. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe
10. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe
11. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe
12. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe
13. Mirabel BQ safe
14. La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe
15. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe
16. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ safe
17. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe
18. Saint-Jean BQ safe
19. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe
20. Terrebonne BQ safe
21. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ safe
22. Shefford BQ safe
23. Drummond BQ safe
24. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe
25. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ safe
26. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ safe
27. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ safe
28. Jonquière BQ likely
29. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely
30. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely
31. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely
32. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely
33. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely
34. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely
35. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ likely
36. Québec Centre BQ likely
37. Sherbrooke BQ likely
38. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ likely
39. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ leaning
40. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning
41. Montmorency—Charlevoix BQ leaning
42. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
43. Alfred-Pellan Toss up LPC/BQ
44. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
45. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up NDP/BQ
46. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ
47. Vaudreuil Toss up LPC/BQ
48. Ahuntsic-Cartierville Toss up LPC/BQ
49. Louis-Hébert Toss up CPC/BQ
50. Gatineau LPC likely
51. Vimy LPC likely
52. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC
53. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC likely
54. Laurier—Sainte-Marie NDP leaning
55. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely