Bloc Québécois

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ safe	>99%
2.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe	>99%
3.	Montcalm	BQ safe	>99%
4.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ safe	>99%
5.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ safe	>99%
6.	Drummond	BQ safe	>99%
7.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ safe	>99%
8.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ safe	>99%
9.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ likely	>99%
10.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ likely	>99%
11.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	BQ likely	99%
12.	Saint-Jean	BQ likely	99%
13.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ likely	99%
14.	Jonquière	BQ likely	99%
15.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	99%
16.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ likely	99%
17.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	BQ likely	98%
18.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj	BQ likely	98%
19.	Mirabel	BQ likely	97%
20.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ likely	95%
21.	Repentigny	BQ likely	92%
22.	Shefford	BQ leaning	83%
23.	Terrebonne	BQ leaning	78%
24.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	BQ leaning	70%
25.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	Toss up CPC/BQ	69%
26.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	48%
27.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	Toss up LPC/BQ	46%
28.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	Toss up LPC/BQ	34%
29.	Beauport—Limoilou	Toss up LPC/BQ	21%
30.	La Prairie—Atateken	LPC leaning	20%
31.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie	LPC leaning	10%
32.	Québec Centre	LPC likely	8%
33.	Richmond—Arthabaska	CPC leaning	8%
34.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles	LPC likely	7%
35.	Thérèse-De Blainville	LPC likely	5%
36.	Trois-Rivières	LPC likely	3%
37.	Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville	LPC likely	1%