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Bloc Québécois

Latest update: February 8, 2026
LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20256.3% (QC: 27.9%)
Current vote projection6.5% ± 0.7% (QC: 28.5% ± 4.1%)
Current number of MP's22
Current seat projection26 [18-31]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada 7.5 seat/% 26 [18-31] 28% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

✓ ✓ ✓ × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ BQ 26 [18-31] February 8, 2026 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 26/78 ON 0/122 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 0/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | February 8, 2026

19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 24.3% ▼ 2021 27.9% 28.5% ± 4.1% ▼ Max. 32.6% ▼ Probabilities % BQ February 8, 2026

Seat projection | February 8, 2026

10 15 20 25 30 35 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 18 ▼ 2021 22 seats 26 ▼ Max. 31 ▼ Probabilities % BQ February 8, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Districts and MPs Current party Projection
1.
Montcalm
Luc Theriault
 B BQ safe
2.
Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Sebastien Lemire
 B BQ safe
3.
Lac-Saint-Jean
Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe
 B BQ safe
4.
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak
Louis Plamondon
 B BQ safe
5.
Joliette—Manawan
Gabriel Ste-Marie
 B BQ safe
6.
Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan
Marilene Gill
 B BQ likely
7.
Drummond
Martin Champoux
 B BQ likely
8.
Beloeil—Chambly
Yves-Francois Blanchet
 B BQ likely
9.
Jonquière
Mario Simard
 B BQ likely
10.
Rivière-du-Nord
Rheal Fortin
 B BQ likely
11.
Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon
Claude DeBellefeuille
 B BQ likely
12.
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton
Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay
 B BQ likely
13.
Berthier—Maskinongé
Yves Perron
 B BQ likely
14.
Saint-Jean
Christine Normandin
 B BQ likely
15.
Rimouski—La Matapédia
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas
 B BQ likely
16.
Laurentides—Labelle
Marie-Helene Gaudreau
 B BQ likely
17.
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj
Alexis Deschenes
 B BQ likely
18.
Mirabel
Jean-Denis Garon
 B BQ likely
19.
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères
Xavier Barsalou-Duval
 B BQ likely
20.
La Pointe-de-l’Île
Mario Beaulieu
 B BQ leaning
21.
Repentigny
Patrick Bonin
 B BQ leaning
22.
Shefford
Andreanne Larouche
 B BQ leaning
23.
Terrebonne
Tatiana Auguste
 L Toss up LPC/BQ
24.
Montmorency—Charlevoix
Gabriel Hardy
 C Toss up CPC/BQ
25.
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
Natilien Joseph
 L Toss up LPC/BQ
26.
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Richard Martel
 C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
27.
Les Pays-d’en-Haut
Timothy Watchorn
 L Toss up LPC/BQ
28.
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou
Mandy Gull
 L LPC leaning
29.
Beauport—Limoilou
Steeve Lavoie
 L LPC leaning
30.
Richmond—Arthabaska
Éric Lefebvre
 C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
31.
La Prairie—Atateken
Jacques Ramsay
 L LPC leaning
32.
Québec Centre
Jean-Yves Duclos
 L LPC likely
33.
Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie
Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba
 L LPC likely
34.
Rivière-des-Milles-Îles
Linda Lapointe
 L LPC likely
35.
Thérèse-De Blainville
Madeleine Chenette
 L LPC likely
36.
Trois-Rivières
Caroline Desrochers
 L LPC likely
37.
Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville
Nathalie Provost
 L LPC likely
38.
Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est
Marie-Gabrielle Menard
 L LPC likely
39.
Compton—Stanstead
Marianne Dandurand
 L LPC safe
40.
Brome—Missisquoi
Louis Villeneuve
 L LPC safe
41.
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne
Sherry Romanado
 L LPC safe
42.
Sherbrooke
Elisabeth Briere
 L LPC safe
43.
Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata
Bernard Genereux
 C CPC likely
44.
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Pierre Paul-Hus
 C CPC leaning