Bloc Québécois
Latest update: July 21, 2024
| Leader | Yves-François Blanchet |
| National popular vote in 2021 | 7.6% (QC: 32.1%) |
| Current vote projection | 8.0% ± 0.9% (QC: 33.5% ± 4.7%) |
| Current number of MP's | TBD |
| Current seat projection | 38 [33-44] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.
Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
Seat projection | July 21, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois
| Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Transposed 2021 winner |
Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak |  |
 |
BQ safe | >99% |
| 2. | Joliette—Manawan | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 3. | Beloeil—Chambly | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 4. | Rimouski—La Matapédia | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 5. | Montcalm | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 6. | Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 7. | Repentigny | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 8. | Laurentides—Labelle | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 9. | Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 10. | Abitibi—Témiscamingue | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 11. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 12. | Rivière-du-Nord | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 13. | Mirabel | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 14. | La Prairie—Atateken | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 15. | Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 16. | Les Pays-d’en-Haut | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 17. | Saint-Jean | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 18. | Terrebonne | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 19. | Rivière-des-Milles-Îles | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 20. | Shefford | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 21. | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 22. | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 23. | Drummond | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 24. | Lac-Saint-Jean | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 25. | Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 26. | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 27. | Thérèse-De Blainville | |
|
BQ safe | >99% |
| 28. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | |
|
BQ likely | 98% |
| 29. | Brome—Missisquoi | |
 |
BQ likely | 98% |
| 30. | Jonquière | |
|
BQ likely | 96% |
| 31. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | |
|
BQ likely | 96% |
| 32. | Berthier—Maskinongé | |
|
BQ likely | 93% |
| 33. | Compton—Stanstead | |
|
BQ likely | 91% |
| 34. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | |
|
BQ likely | 91% |
| 35. | Sherbrooke | |
|
BQ leaning | 80% |
| 36. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | |
|
BQ leaning | 80% |
| 37. | Québec Centre | |
|
BQ leaning | 73% |
| 38. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | |
|
Toss up LPC/BQ | 65% |
| 39. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
Toss up CPC/BQ | 48% |
| 40. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | |
|
Toss up LPC/BQ | 37% |
| 41. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
Toss up CPC/BQ | 34% |
| 42. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
LPC leaning | 25% |
| 43. | Trois-Rivières | |
|
CPC leaning | 23% |
| 44. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
 |
CPC likely | 9% |
| 45. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | |
|
LPC leaning | 8% |
| 46. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
CPC leaning | 8% |