Bloc Québécois

Last update: October 2, 2022

Leader	Yves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 2021	7.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection	6.9% ± 0.7% (QC: 29.4% ± 3.8%)
Current number of MP's	32
Current seat projection	29 [24-36]

Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia	BQ safe hold	>99%
2.	Joliette	BQ safe hold	>99%
3.	Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères	BQ safe hold	>99%
4.	Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel	BQ safe hold	>99%
5.	Beloeil–Chambly	BQ safe hold	>99%
6.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe hold	>99%
7.	Montcalm	BQ safe hold	>99%
8.	Abitibi–Témiscamingue	BQ safe hold	>99%
9.	Laurentides–Labelle	BQ safe hold	>99%
10.	Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot	BQ safe hold	>99%
11.	Drummond	BQ safe hold	>99%
12.	Mirabel	BQ safe hold	>99%
13.	Repentigny	BQ safe hold	>99%
14.	Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques	BQ safe hold	>99%
15.	Manicouagan	BQ safe hold	>99%
16.	Salaberry–Suroît	BQ safe hold	>99%
17.	Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold	>99%
18.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ likely hold	99%
19.	Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou	BQ likely hold	98%
20.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ likely hold	98%
21.	Terrebonne	BQ likely hold	97%
22.	Montarville	BQ likely hold	92%
23.	Shefford	BQ likely hold	91%
24.	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	BQ likely hold	91%
25.	La Prairie	BQ leaning hold	89%
26.	Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ leaning hold	88%
27.	Berthier–Maskinongé	BQ leaning hold	81%
28.	Longueuil–Saint-Hubert	BQ leaning hold	78%
29.	Jonquière	Toss up CPC/BQ	67%
30.	Châteauguay–Lacolle	Toss up LPC/BQ	44%
31.	Brome–Missisquoi	Toss up LPC/BQ	43%
32.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix	CPC leaning gain	30%
33.	Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation	LPC leaning hold	26%
34.	Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne	LPC leaning hold	18%
35.	Compton–Stanstead	LPC leaning hold	12%
36.	Québec	LPC leaning hold	12%
37.	Beauport–Limoilou	CPC leaning gain	12%
38.	Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	LPC leaning hold	11%
39.	Hochelaga	LPC leaning hold	9%
40.	Trois-Rivières	CPC likely gain	5%
41.	Sherbrooke	LPC likely hold	5%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia	BQ safe hold
2.	Joliette	BQ safe hold
3.	Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères	BQ safe hold
4.	Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel	BQ safe hold
5.	Beloeil–Chambly	BQ safe hold
6.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe hold
7.	Montcalm	BQ safe hold
8.	Abitibi–Témiscamingue	BQ safe hold
9.	Laurentides–Labelle	BQ safe hold
10.	Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot	BQ safe hold
11.	Drummond	BQ safe hold
12.	Mirabel	BQ safe hold
13.	Repentigny	BQ safe hold
14.	Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques	BQ safe hold
15.	Manicouagan	BQ safe hold
16.	Salaberry–Suroît	BQ safe hold
17.	Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold
18.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ likely hold
19.	Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou	BQ likely hold
20.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ likely hold
21.	Terrebonne	BQ likely hold
22.	Montarville	BQ likely hold
23.	Shefford	BQ likely hold
24.	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	BQ likely hold
25.	La Prairie	BQ leaning hold
26.	Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ leaning hold
27.	Berthier–Maskinongé	BQ leaning hold
28.	Longueuil–Saint-Hubert	BQ leaning hold
29.	Jonquière	Toss up CPC/BQ
30.	Châteauguay–Lacolle	Toss up LPC/BQ
31.	Brome–Missisquoi	Toss up LPC/BQ
32.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix	CPC leaning gain
33.	Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation	LPC leaning hold
34.	Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne	LPC leaning hold
35.	Compton–Stanstead	LPC leaning hold
36.	Québec	LPC leaning hold
37.	Beauport–Limoilou	CPC leaning gain
38.	Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	LPC leaning hold
39.	Hochelaga	LPC leaning hold
40.	Trois-Rivières	CPC likely gain
41.	Sherbrooke	LPC likely hold