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Canada

Bloc Québécois



Latest update: April 25, 2025

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20217.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection6.2% ± 0.8% (QC: 26.1% ± 4.2%)
Current number of MP'sTBD
Current seat projection24 [14-33]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 25, 2025 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada 10.4 seat/% 24 [14-33] 26% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × BQ 24 [14-33] April 25, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 24/78 ON 0/122 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 0/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | April 25, 2025

17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 21.9% 26.1% ± 4.2% Max. 30.3% 2021 32.1% Probabilities % BQ April 25, 2025

Seat projection | April 25, 2025

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 14 24 2021 32 seats Max. 33 Probabilities % BQ April 25, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner
Last projection Odds of winning
1. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe >99%
2. Montcalm BQ safe >99%
3. Joliette—Manawan BQ likely >99%
4. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ likely 99%
5. Beloeil—Chambly BQ likely 99%
6. Rivière-du-Nord BQ likely 99%
7. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely 98%
8. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ likely 97%
9. Mirabel BQ likely 97%
10. Laurentides—Labelle BQ likely 95%
11. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ likely 94%
12. Drummond BQ likely 93%
13. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ likely 92%
14. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ leaning 90%
15. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ leaning 89%
16. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ leaning 88%
17. Saint-Jean BQ leaning 83%
18. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ leaning 82%
19. Repentigny BQ leaning 81%
20. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ leaning 79%
21. Terrebonne BQ leaning 77%
22. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ 64%
23. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Toss up LPC/BQ 54%
24. La Prairie—Atateken Toss up LPC/BQ 53%
25. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ 45%
26. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 42%
27. Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up LPC/BQ 35%
28. Trois-Rivières Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 30%
29. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC leaning 26%
30. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj LPC leaning 22%
31. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC leaning 16%
32. Shefford LPC leaning 12%
33. Beauport—Limoilou CPC leaning 9%
34. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC likely 5%
35. Québec Centre LPC likely 5%