Bloc Québécois

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe	>99%
2.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ likely	98%
3.	Montcalm	BQ likely	97%
4.	Drummond	BQ likely	93%
5.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	92%
6.	Mirabel	BQ likely	91%
7.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ likely	91%
8.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ leaning	89%
9.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ leaning	88%
10.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ leaning	87%
11.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ leaning	85%
12.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ leaning	82%
13.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ leaning	81%
14.	Jonquière	BQ leaning	78%
15.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ leaning	78%
16.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	Toss up LPC/BQ	69%
17.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	Toss up LPC/BQ	61%
18.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	Toss up LPC/BQ	53%
19.	Saint-Jean	Toss up LPC/BQ	50%
20.	Terrebonne	Toss up LPC/BQ	43%
21.	Repentigny	Toss up LPC/BQ	41%
22.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	Toss up LPC/BQ	39%
23.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	Toss up LPC/BQ	37%
24.	La Prairie—Atateken	LPC leaning	16%
25.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles	LPC likely	5%
26.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	CPC likely	4%
27.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	CPC leaning	3%
28.	Shefford	LPC likely	3%
29.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie	LPC likely	2%
30.	Trois-Rivières	Toss up LPC/CPC	2%
31.	Beauport—Limoilou	CPC leaning	1%