Bloc Québécois

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ safe	>99%
2.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe	>99%
3.	Montcalm	BQ safe	>99%
4.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ safe	>99%
5.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ safe	>99%
6.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ safe	>99%
7.	Drummond	BQ safe	>99%
8.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ likely	>99%
9.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	>99%
10.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ likely	>99%
11.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ likely	>99%
12.	Saint-Jean	BQ likely	99%
13.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	BQ likely	99%
14.	Jonquière	BQ likely	98%
15.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ likely	98%
16.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ likely	97%
17.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj	BQ likely	93%
18.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	BQ likely	93%
19.	Mirabel	BQ likely	92%
20.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ leaning	86%
21.	Repentigny	BQ leaning	77%
22.	Shefford	Toss up LPC/BQ	57%
23.	Terrebonne	Toss up LPC/BQ	49%
24.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	Toss up CPC/BQ	41%
25.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	Toss up LPC/BQ	39%
26.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	19%
27.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	LPC leaning	14%
28.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	LPC leaning	11%
29.	Beauport—Limoilou	LPC leaning	3%
30.	La Prairie—Atateken	LPC likely	2%