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Canada

Bloc Québécois



Latest update: February 16, 2025

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20217.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection7.8% ± 0.9% (QC: 32.6% ± 4.9%)
Current number of MP'sTBD
Current seat projection37 [29-45]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 16, 2025 50 45 40 35 30 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada 7.6 seat/% 37 [29-45] 33% ± 5% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ BQ 37 [29-45] February 16, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 37/78 ON 0/122 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 0/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | February 16, 2025

22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 27.7% ▼ 2021 32.1% 32.6% ± 4.9% ▼ Max. 37.5% ▼ Probabilities % BQ February 16, 2025

Seat projection | February 16, 2025

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 29 ▼ 2021 32 seats 37 ▼ Max. 45 ▼ Probabilities % BQ February 16, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe >99%
2. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe >99%
3. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe >99%
4. Montcalm BQ safe >99%
5. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe >99%
6. Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe >99%
7. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe >99%
8. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe >99%
9. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe >99%
10. Mirabel BQ safe >99%
11. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe >99%
12. Terrebonne BQ safe >99%
13. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe >99%
14. Repentigny BQ safe >99%
15. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe >99%
16. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe >99%
17. Saint-Jean BQ safe >99%
18. La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe >99%
19. Shefford BQ likely >99%
20. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ likely >99%
21. Drummond BQ likely >99%
22. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely 99%
23. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ likely 99%
24. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely 99%
25. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ likely 99%
26. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ likely 99%
27. Jonquière BQ likely 98%
28. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely 98%
29. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely 93%
30. Brome—Missisquoi BQ leaning 82%
31. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ leaning 81%
32. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ leaning 81%
33. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 63%
34. Compton—Stanstead Toss up LPC/BQ 60%
35. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ 57%
36. Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ 56%
37. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ 51%
38. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ 46%
39. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 39%
40. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Toss up LPC/BQ 33%
41. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ 32%
42. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 31%
43. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning 24%
44. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning 13%
45. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC leaning 9%
46. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely 6%
47. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC 4%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe
2. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe
3. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe
4. Montcalm BQ safe
5. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe
6. Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe
7. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe
8. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe
9. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe
10. Mirabel BQ safe
11. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe
12. Terrebonne BQ safe
13. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe
14. Repentigny BQ safe
15. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe
16. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe
17. Saint-Jean BQ safe
18. La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe
19. Shefford BQ likely
20. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ likely
21. Drummond BQ likely
22. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely
23. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ likely
24. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely
25. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ likely
26. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ likely
27. Jonquière BQ likely
28. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely
29. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely
30. Brome—Missisquoi BQ leaning
31. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ leaning
32. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ leaning
33. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
34. Compton—Stanstead Toss up LPC/BQ
35. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ
36. Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ
37. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ
38. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ
39. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
40. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Toss up LPC/BQ
41. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ
42. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
43. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning
44. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning
45. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC leaning
46. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely
47. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC