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Canada

Bloc Québécois



Latest update: July 6, 2025

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20256.3% (QC: 27.9%)
Current vote projection6.0% ± 0.7% (QC: 26.3% ± 3.9%)
Current number of MP's22
Current seat projection21 [11-27]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | July 6, 2025 30 25 20 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada 9.9 seat/% 21 [11-27] 26% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × BQ 21 [11-27] July 6, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 21/78 ON 0/122 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 0/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | July 6, 2025

18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 22.4% 26.3% ± 3.9% 2021 27.9% Max. 30.2% Probabilities % BQ July 6, 2025

Seat projection | July 6, 2025

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 11 21 2021 22 seats Max. 27 Probabilities % BQ July 6, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ likely >99%
2. Montcalm BQ likely >99%
3. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely >99%
4. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ likely >99%
5. Joliette—Manawan BQ likely 99%
6. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely 97%
7. Drummond BQ likely 96%
8. Jonquière BQ likely 95%
9. Beloeil—Chambly BQ likely 94%
10. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely 91%
11. Rivière-du-Nord BQ likely 90%
12. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ leaning 89%
13. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ leaning 81%
14. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ leaning 81%
15. Saint-Jean BQ leaning 81%
16. Laurentides—Labelle BQ leaning 77%
17. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj Toss up LPC/BQ 62%
18. Mirabel Toss up LPC/BQ 62%
19. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Toss up LPC/BQ 61%
20. La Pointe-de-l’Île Toss up LPC/BQ 51%
21. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 39%
22. Repentigny Toss up LPC/BQ 37%
23. Shefford LPC leaning 22%
24. Terrebonne LPC leaning 18%
25. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 13%
26. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert LPC leaning 13%
27. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou LPC likely 3%
28. Les Pays-d’en-Haut LPC likely 3%