Bloc Québécois

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ safe	>99%
2.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ safe	>99%
3.	Montcalm	BQ safe	>99%
4.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe	>99%
5.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ likely	>99%
6.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ likely	99%
7.	Drummond	BQ likely	99%
8.	Jonquière	BQ likely	98%
9.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ likely	98%
10.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ likely	96%
11.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ likely	95%
12.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	BQ likely	91%
13.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ likely	91%
14.	Saint-Jean	BQ likely	90%
15.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	90%
16.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ leaning	88%
17.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj	BQ leaning	78%
18.	Mirabel	BQ leaning	77%
19.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	BQ leaning	77%
20.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	Toss up LPC/BQ	67%
21.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	58%
22.	Repentigny	Toss up LPC/BQ	55%
23.	Shefford	Toss up LPC/BQ	38%
24.	Terrebonne	Toss up LPC/BQ	32%
25.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	27%
26.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	LPC leaning	25%
27.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	LPC likely	9%
28.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	LPC likely	8%
29.	Richmond—Arthabaska	Toss up LPC/CPC	3%
30.	Beauport—Limoilou	LPC likely	3%
31.	La Prairie—Atateken	LPC likely	2%