Bloc Québécois

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ safe	>99%
2.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ safe	>99%
3.	Montcalm	BQ safe	>99%
4.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe	>99%
5.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ safe	>99%
6.	Drummond	BQ safe	>99%
7.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ safe	>99%
8.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ safe	>99%
9.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ safe	>99%
10.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ safe	>99%
11.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe	>99%
12.	Saint-Jean	BQ likely	>99%
13.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	BQ likely	>99%
14.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ likely	>99%
15.	Jonquière	BQ likely	99%
16.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ likely	99%
17.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	BQ likely	97%
18.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj	BQ likely	97%
19.	Mirabel	BQ likely	96%
20.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ likely	91%
21.	Repentigny	BQ leaning	82%
22.	Shefford	Toss up LPC/BQ	62%
23.	Terrebonne	Toss up LPC/BQ	51%
24.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	Toss up LPC/BQ	42%
25.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	Toss up CPC/BQ	35%
26.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	20%
27.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	LPC leaning	11%
28.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	LPC leaning	11%
29.	Beauport—Limoilou	LPC likely	2%