Bloc Québécois

Latest update: December 3, 2023

Leader	Yves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 2021	7.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection	7.0% ± 0.7% (QC: 29.6% ± 3.9%)
Current number of MP's	32
Current seat projection	33 [27-40]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Popular vote projection | December 3, 2023

Seat projection | December 3, 2023

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia	BQ safe hold	>99%
2.	Joliette	BQ safe hold	>99%
3.	Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères	BQ safe hold	>99%
4.	Beloeil–Chambly	BQ safe hold	>99%
5.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe hold	>99%
6.	Montcalm	BQ safe hold	>99%
7.	Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques	BQ safe hold	>99%
8.	Abitibi–Témiscamingue	BQ safe hold	>99%
9.	Laurentides–Labelle	BQ safe hold	>99%
10.	Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot	BQ safe hold	>99%
11.	Mirabel	BQ safe hold	>99%
12.	Repentigny	BQ safe hold	>99%
13.	Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel	BQ safe hold	>99%
14.	Salaberry–Suroît	BQ safe hold	>99%
15.	Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold	>99%
16.	Drummond	BQ safe hold	>99%
17.	Berthier–Maskinongé	BQ safe hold	>99%
18.	Manicouagan	BQ safe hold	>99%
19.	Terrebonne	BQ likely hold	99%
20.	Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou	BQ likely hold	99%
21.	Shefford	BQ likely hold	99%
22.	Montarville	BQ likely hold	98%
23.	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	BQ likely hold	98%
24.	La Prairie	BQ likely hold	98%
25.	Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ likely hold	97%
26.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ likely hold	96%
27.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ likely hold	96%
28.	Longueuil–Saint-Hubert	BQ likely hold	96%
29.	Brome–Missisquoi	BQ leaning gain	80%
30.	Châteauguay–Lacolle	BQ leaning gain	77%
31.	Jonquière	Toss up CPC/BQ	63%
32.	Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation	Toss up LPC/BQ	62%
33.	Compton–Stanstead	Toss up LPC/BQ	55%
34.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix	Toss up CPC/BQ	50%
35.	Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne	Toss up LPC/BQ	45%
36.	Québec	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	37%
37.	Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	Toss up LPC/BQ	37%
38.	Sherbrooke	LPC leaning hold	28%
39.	Beauport–Limoilou	CPC leaning gain	15%
40.	Trois-Rivières	CPC leaning gain	11%
41.	Saint-Maurice–Champlain	LPC likely hold	9%
42.	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	LPC likely hold	7%
43.	Hochelaga	LPC leaning hold	5%
44.	Louis-Hébert	Toss up LPC/CPC	3%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia	BQ safe hold
2.	Joliette	BQ safe hold
3.	Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères	BQ safe hold
4.	Beloeil–Chambly	BQ safe hold
5.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe hold
6.	Montcalm	BQ safe hold
7.	Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques	BQ safe hold
8.	Abitibi–Témiscamingue	BQ safe hold
9.	Laurentides–Labelle	BQ safe hold
10.	Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot	BQ safe hold
11.	Mirabel	BQ safe hold
12.	Repentigny	BQ safe hold
13.	Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel	BQ safe hold
14.	Salaberry–Suroît	BQ safe hold
15.	Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold
16.	Drummond	BQ safe hold
17.	Berthier–Maskinongé	BQ safe hold
18.	Manicouagan	BQ safe hold
19.	Terrebonne	BQ likely hold
20.	Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou	BQ likely hold
21.	Shefford	BQ likely hold
22.	Montarville	BQ likely hold
23.	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	BQ likely hold
24.	La Prairie	BQ likely hold
25.	Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ likely hold
26.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ likely hold
27.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ likely hold
28.	Longueuil–Saint-Hubert	BQ likely hold
29.	Brome–Missisquoi	BQ leaning gain
30.	Châteauguay–Lacolle	BQ leaning gain
31.	Jonquière	Toss up CPC/BQ
32.	Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation	Toss up LPC/BQ
33.	Compton–Stanstead	Toss up LPC/BQ
34.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix	Toss up CPC/BQ
35.	Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne	Toss up LPC/BQ
36.	Québec	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
37.	Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	Toss up LPC/BQ
38.	Sherbrooke	LPC leaning hold
39.	Beauport–Limoilou	CPC leaning gain
40.	Trois-Rivières	CPC leaning gain
41.	Saint-Maurice–Champlain	LPC likely hold
42.	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	LPC likely hold
43.	Hochelaga	LPC leaning hold
44.	Louis-Hébert	Toss up LPC/CPC