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Canada

Bloc Québécois



Latest update: January 19, 2025

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20217.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection8.5% ± 0.9% (QC: 35.7% ± 5.0%)
Current number of MP'sTBD
Current seat projection42 [38-50]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | January 19, 2025 55 50 45 40 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada ©2023 5.6 seat/% 42 [38-50] 36% ± 5% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × ✓ × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ BQ 42 [38-50] January 19, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 42/78 ON 0/122 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 0/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | January 19, 2025

25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 30.7% ▼ 2021 32.1% 35.7% ± 5.0% ▼ Max. 40.6% ▼ Probabilities % BQ January 19, 2025

Seat projection | January 19, 2025

30 35 40 45 50 55 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 32 seats Min. 38 ▼ 42 ▼ Max. 50 ▼ Probabilities % BQ January 19, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe >99%
2. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe >99%
3. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe >99%
4. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe >99%
5. Montcalm BQ safe >99%
6. Repentigny BQ safe >99%
7. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe >99%
8. Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe >99%
9. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe >99%
10. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe >99%
11. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe >99%
12. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe >99%
13. Mirabel BQ safe >99%
14. La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe >99%
15. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe >99%
16. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ safe >99%
17. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe >99%
18. Saint-Jean BQ safe >99%
19. Terrebonne BQ safe >99%
20. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe >99%
21. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ safe >99%
22. Shefford BQ safe >99%
23. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ safe >99%
24. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ safe >99%
25. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely >99%
26. Drummond BQ likely >99%
27. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely >99%
28. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely >99%
29. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ likely 99%
30. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely 99%
31. Jonquière BQ likely 99%
32. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely 98%
33. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ likely 98%
34. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely 98%
35. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely 97%
36. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely 97%
37. Sherbrooke BQ likely 96%
38. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ likely 96%
39. Québec Centre BQ likely 95%
40. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning 90%
41. Alfred-Pellan BQ leaning 76%
42. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ 67%
43. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 45%
44. Vaudreuil Toss up LPC/BQ 44%
45. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 39%
46. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 37%
47. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning 29%
48. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC leaning 21%
49. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning 12%
50. Gatineau LPC leaning 12%
51. Vimy LPC leaning 11%
52. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC leaning 11%
53. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC 8%
54. Laurier—Sainte-Marie NDP leaning 5%
55. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC leaning 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe
2. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe
3. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe
4. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe
5. Montcalm BQ safe
6. Repentigny BQ safe
7. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe
8. Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe
9. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe
10. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe
11. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe
12. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe
13. Mirabel BQ safe
14. La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe
15. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe
16. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ safe
17. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe
18. Saint-Jean BQ safe
19. Terrebonne BQ safe
20. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe
21. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ safe
22. Shefford BQ safe
23. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ safe
24. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ safe
25. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely
26. Drummond BQ likely
27. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely
28. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely
29. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ likely
30. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely
31. Jonquière BQ likely
32. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely
33. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ likely
34. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely
35. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely
36. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely
37. Sherbrooke BQ likely
38. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ likely
39. Québec Centre BQ likely
40. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning
41. Alfred-Pellan BQ leaning
42. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
43. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
44. Vaudreuil Toss up LPC/BQ
45. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
46. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
47. Trois-Rivières CPC leaning
48. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC leaning
49. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning
50. Gatineau LPC leaning
51. Vimy LPC leaning
52. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC leaning
53. Laval—Les Îles Toss up LPC/CPC
54. Laurier—Sainte-Marie NDP leaning
55. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC leaning