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Canada

Bloc Québécois



Latest update: December 7, 2025

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20256.3% (QC: 27.9%)
Current vote projection7.1% ± 0.8% (QC: 31.0% ± 4.5%)
Current number of MP's22
Current seat projection27 [21-35]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 7, 2025 40 35 30 25 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada 7.2 seat/% 27 [21-35] 31% ± 5% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


✓ ✓ ✓ × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ BQ 27 [21-35] December 7, 2025 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 27/78 ON 0/122 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 0/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Popular vote projection | December 7, 2025

21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 26.5% ▼ 2021 27.9% 31.0% ± 4.5% ▼ Max. 35.5% ▼ Probabilities % BQ December 7, 2025

Seat projection | December 7, 2025

15 20 25 30 35 40 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 21 ▼ 2021 22 seats 27 ▼ Max. 35 ▼ Probabilities % BQ December 7, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province 2025 winner Last projection Odds of winning
1. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe >99%
2. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe >99%
3. Montcalm BQ safe >99%
4. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe >99%
5. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe >99%
6. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ safe >99%
7. Drummond BQ safe >99%
8. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe >99%
9. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ likely >99%
10. Rivière-du-Nord BQ likely >99%
11. Jonquière BQ likely >99%
12. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ likely >99%
13. Saint-Jean BQ likely >99%
14. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ likely >99%
15. Laurentides—Labelle BQ likely 99%
16. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely 99%
17. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ likely 99%
18. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely 98%
19. Mirabel BQ likely 98%
20. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely 97%
21. Repentigny BQ likely 95%
22. Shefford BQ leaning 89%
23. Montmorency—Charlevoix BQ leaning 88%
24. Terrebonne BQ leaning 86%
25. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ leaning 80%
26. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord BQ leaning 71%
27. Les Pays-d’en-Haut Toss up LPC/BQ 61%
28. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Toss up LPC/BQ 46%
29. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up LPC/BQ 40%
30. La Prairie—Atateken Toss up LPC/BQ 33%
31. Richmond—Arthabaska Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 29%
32. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC leaning 20%
33. Québec Centre LPC leaning 17%
34. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC leaning 16%
35. Thérèse-De Blainville LPC leaning 13%
36. Trois-Rivières LPC likely 9%
37. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC likely 4%
38. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC likely 1%