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Canada

Bloc Québécois



Latest update: November 17, 2024

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20217.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection8.3% ± 0.9% (QC: 34.9% ± 4.8%)
Current number of MP'sTBD
Current seat projection44 [36-49]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024 50 45 40 35 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada ©2023 6.5 seat/% 44 [36-49] 35% ± 5% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ BQ 44 [36-49] November 17, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 44/78 ON 0/122 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 0/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024

24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 30.1% ▼ 2021 32.1% 34.9% ± 4.8% ▼ Max. 39.7% ▼ Probabilities % BQ November 17, 2024

Seat projection | November 17, 2024

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 34 seats Min. 36 ▼ 44 ▼ Max. 49 ▼ Probabilities % BQ November 17, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe >99%
2. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe >99%
3. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe >99%
4. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe >99%
5. Montcalm BQ safe >99%
6. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe >99%
7. Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe >99%
8. Repentigny BQ safe >99%
9. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe >99%
10. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe >99%
11. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe >99%
12. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe >99%
13. Mirabel BQ safe >99%
14. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe >99%
15. La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe >99%
16. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe >99%
17. Saint-Jean BQ safe >99%
18. Terrebonne BQ safe >99%
19. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe >99%
20. Shefford BQ safe >99%
21. Drummond BQ safe >99%
22. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ safe >99%
23. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ safe >99%
24. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe >99%
25. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ safe >99%
26. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ safe >99%
27. Jonquière BQ likely >99%
28. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely >99%
29. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely 98%
30. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely 98%
31. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely 98%
32. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely 94%
33. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely 94%
34. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely 92%
35. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely 92%
36. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning 87%
37. Québec Centre BQ leaning 83%
38. Sherbrooke BQ leaning 82%
39. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ leaning 77%
40. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning 77%
41. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 70%
42. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ 69%
43. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ 56%
44. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 54%
45. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ 41%
46. Alfred-Pellan Toss up LPC/BQ 33%
47. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 21%
48. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC leaning 15%
49. Vaudreuil LPC leaning 13%
50. Laurier—Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP 4%
51. Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe
2. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe
3. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe
4. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe
5. Montcalm BQ safe
6. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe
7. Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe
8. Repentigny BQ safe
9. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe
10. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe
11. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe
12. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe
13. Mirabel BQ safe
14. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe
15. La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe
16. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe
17. Saint-Jean BQ safe
18. Terrebonne BQ safe
19. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe
20. Shefford BQ safe
21. Drummond BQ safe
22. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ safe
23. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ safe
24. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe
25. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ safe
26. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ safe
27. Jonquière BQ likely
28. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely
29. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely
30. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely
31. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely
32. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est BQ likely
33. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely
34. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ likely
35. Compton—Stanstead BQ likely
36. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning
37. Québec Centre BQ leaning
38. Sherbrooke BQ leaning
39. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin BQ leaning
40. Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ leaning
41. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
42. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
43. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
44. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
45. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ
46. Alfred-Pellan Toss up LPC/BQ
47. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
48. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC leaning
49. Vaudreuil LPC leaning
50. Laurier—Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
51. Laval—Les-Îles LPC leaning