Bloc Québécois

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ safe	>99%
2.	Montcalm	BQ safe	>99%
3.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ safe	>99%
4.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe	>99%
5.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ safe	>99%
6.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ likely	>99%
7.	Drummond	BQ likely	>99%
8.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ likely	>99%
9.	Jonquière	BQ likely	99%
10.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ likely	99%
11.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ likely	99%
12.	Saint-Jean	BQ likely	97%
13.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	BQ likely	97%
14.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ likely	97%
15.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely	96%
16.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ likely	96%
17.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj	BQ likely	92%
18.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	BQ likely	91%
19.	Mirabel	BQ likely	91%
20.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ leaning	84%
21.	Repentigny	BQ leaning	77%
22.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	Toss up CPC/BQ	69%
23.	Shefford	Toss up LPC/BQ	63%
24.	Terrebonne	Toss up LPC/BQ	56%
25.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	Toss up LPC/BQ	47%
26.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	41%
27.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	LPC leaning	24%
28.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	LPC leaning	18%
29.	Beauport—Limoilou	LPC leaning	9%
30.	La Prairie—Atateken	LPC likely	7%
31.	Richmond—Arthabaska	Toss up LPC/CPC	6%
32.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie	LPC likely	3%
33.	Québec Centre	LPC likely	3%
34.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles	LPC likely	2%
35.	Thérèse-De Blainville	LPC likely	1%