logo
Canada


St. Catharines (federal)


MP: Chris Bittle (LPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC likely gain
St. Catharines 38% ± 7%▼ 31% ± 6% 21% ± 5% 5% ± 4% 4% ± 4% LPC 2021 37.82% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% St. Catharines 90%▼ 10%▲ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. Catharines

LPC 31% ± 6% CPC 38% ± 7% NDP 21% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | St. Catharines 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Odds of winning | St. Catharines

LPC 10% CPC 90% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | St. Catharines



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 43.2% 40.2% 37.82% 31% ± 6% CPC 37.6% 31.6% 32.64% 38% ± 7% NDP 16.5% 20.7% 21.06% 21% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.4% 6.61% 4% ± 4% GPC 2.6% 6.1% 1.87% 5% ± 4%