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Canada

Richmond Hill South


MP: Vincent Neil Ho (CPC)

Latest projection: July 13, 2025
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Richmond Hill South


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 8% 43.4% 38.8% 52.3% LPC 46% ± 8% 43.0% 47.8% 44.4% NDP 2% ± 2% 8.8% 8.8% 1.8% GPC 1% ± 1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.8% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.0% 3.0% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Richmond Hill-Sud


Richmond Hill South 50% ± 8%▼ CPC 46% ± 8%▲ LPC CPC 2025 52.3% 338Canada vote projection | July 13, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond Hill South 72%▼ CPC 28%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 13, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond Hill South

LPC 46% ± 8% CPC 50% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Richmond Hill South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC July 13, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 52% LPC 31% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 51% LPC 33% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 51% LPC 33% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 48% LPC 36% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 46% LPC 39% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 45% LPC 43% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 45% CPC 43% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 46% CPC 42% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 43% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 47% CPC 41% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 55% CPC 38% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 50% CPC 43% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% CPC 43% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 49% CPC 44% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 52% LPC 44% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 52% LPC 44% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 52% LPC 44% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 52% LPC 44% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 52% LPC 44% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 52% LPC 45% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 51% LPC 45% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 51% LPC 46% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 51% LPC 45% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 51% LPC 45% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 50% LPC 46% 2025-07-13 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Richmond Hill South

LPC 28% CPC 72% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 13, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader