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Richmond Hill South



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Richmond Hill South


Liberal Majid Jowhari*
Conservative Vincent Neil Ho
NDP Ebrahim Astaraki
Green Alison Lam
PPC Joshua Sideris
Canadian Future Juni Yeung
Independent Yan Wang

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Richmond Hill South 52% ± 9% LPC 40% ± 8%▼ CPC 4% ± 3% NDP LPC 2021 47.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond Hill South 95%▲ LPC 5%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond Hill South

LPC 52% ± 9% CPC 40% ± 8% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Richmond Hill South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 47% CPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Richmond Hill South

LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Richmond Hill South



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 43.0% 47.8% 52% ± 9% CPC 43.4% 38.8% 40% ± 8% NDP 8.8% 8.8% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.0% 3.0% 1% ± 2% GPC 3.4% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.