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Canada


Toronto–Danforth (federal)


MP: Julie Drabusin (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

NDP leaning gain
Toronto–Danforth 34% ± 7% 29% ± 6% 25% ± 6% 10% ± 5%▲ LPC 2021 48.39% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Toronto–Danforth 85%▲ 14%▼ 1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Toronto–Danforth

LPC 29% ± 6% CPC 25% ± 6% NDP 34% ± 7% GPC 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Toronto–Danforth 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Toronto–Danforth

LPC 14% CPC 1% NDP 85% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Toronto–Danforth



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.3% 47.7% 48.39% 29% ± 6% NDP 40.2% 33.2% 33.68% 34% ± 7% CPC 9.9% 10.5% 12.49% 25% ± 6% PPC 0.0% 1.1% 2.46% 2% ± 2% GPC 4.7% 6.5% 1.96% 10% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0% ± 0%