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Canada

Toronto Centre



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Toronto Centre


Liberal Evan Solomon
Conservative Luis Ibarra
NDP Samantha Green
Green Olivia Iheme
PPC Nathen Mazri
Marxist-Leninist Philip Fernandez
Animal Protection Simon Luisi
Independent Cleveland Marshall

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Toronto Centre 67% ± 8% LPC 17% ± 6% CPC 10% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 49.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto Centre >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Toronto Centre

LPC 67% ± 8% CPC 17% ± 6% NDP 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Toronto Centre 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 18% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 56% CPC 19% NDP 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 58% CPC 18% NDP 16% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 58% CPC 18% NDP 16% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 59% CPC 18% NDP 15% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 59% CPC 18% NDP 15% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 59% CPC 18% NDP 15% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 59% CPC 18% NDP 15% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 63% CPC 18% NDP 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 63% CPC 18% NDP 12% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 64% CPC 18% NDP 12% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 64% CPC 19% NDP 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 65% CPC 19% NDP 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 67% CPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 11% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 11% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 11% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 66% CPC 17% NDP 11% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 11% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 66% CPC 17% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 67% CPC 17% NDP 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 67% CPC 17% NDP 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 67% CPC 17% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Toronto Centre

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Toronto Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.8% 49.8% 67% ± 8% CPC 12.6% 12.9% 17% ± 6% NDP 21.6% 26.2% 10% ± 5% GPC 6.8% 8.1% 3% ± 3% PPC 0.1% 2.3% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.