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Canada

Toronto Centre


MP: Evan Solomon (LPC)

Latest projection: December 21, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Toronto Centre


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 57% ± 7% 57.8% 49.8% 64.3% NDP 20% ± 6% 21.6% 26.2% 12.5% CPC 19% ± 5% 12.6% 12.9% 20.9% GPC 2% ± 2% 6.8% 8.1% 1.1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Toronto-Centre


Toronto Centre 50% 65% 57% ± 7% LPC 14% 26% 20% ± 6% NDP 14% 24% 19% ± 5% CPC LPC 2025 64.3% 338Canada vote projection | December 21, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto Centre >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 21, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Toronto Centre

LPC 57% ± 7% CPC 19% ± 5% NDP 20% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Toronto Centre 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND December 21, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 39% NDP 29% CPC 23% GPC 7% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 39% NDP 29% CPC 23% GPC 7% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 42% NDP 27% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 45% NDP 25% CPC 21% GPC 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 50% NDP 21% CPC 20% GPC 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 53% CPC 20% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 54% CPC 19% NDP 18% GPC 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 56% CPC 19% NDP 17% GPC 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 58% CPC 18% NDP 16% GPC 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 58% CPC 18% NDP 16% GPC 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 59% CPC 18% NDP 15% GPC 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 59% CPC 18% NDP 15% GPC 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 59% CPC 18% NDP 15% GPC 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 59% CPC 18% NDP 15% GPC 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 13% GPC 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 13% GPC 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 63% CPC 18% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 63% CPC 18% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 64% CPC 18% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 64% CPC 19% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 65% CPC 19% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 67% CPC 19% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 66% CPC 17% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 66% CPC 17% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 67% CPC 17% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 67% CPC 17% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 67% CPC 17% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 66% CPC 17% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 64% CPC 19% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 64% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 65% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 65% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 65% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 65% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 64% CPC 18% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 65% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 18% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 12% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 12% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 64% CPC 20% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 64% CPC 20% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 64% CPC 20% NDP 14% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 63% CPC 20% NDP 14% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 64% CPC 19% NDP 15% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 64% CPC 19% NDP 15% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 63% CPC 19% NDP 15% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 63% CPC 19% NDP 15% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 63% CPC 19% NDP 16% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 63% CPC 18% NDP 16% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 62% CPC 20% NDP 16% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 17% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 60% CPC 20% NDP 17% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 60% CPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 59% CPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 19% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 19% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 19% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 57% CPC 20% NDP 19% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 19% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 58% NDP 19% CPC 19% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 58% NDP 20% CPC 19% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 57% NDP 20% CPC 19% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Toronto Centre

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 21, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 87% NDP 13% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 95% NDP 5% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 96% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader