logo
logo
Canada

Toronto Centre



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC likely
Toronto Centre 38% ± 7% LPC 30% ± 7% NDP 22% ± 6% CPC 7% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 49.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto Centre 93%▼ LPC 7%▲ NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Toronto Centre

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 22% ± 6% NDP 30% ± 7% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 38% NDP 27% CPC 19% GPC 14% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 38% NDP 27% CPC 19% GPC 14% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 39% NDP 27% CPC 19% GPC 14% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 39% NDP 27% CPC 19% GPC 14% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 39% NDP 27% CPC 19% GPC 14% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 39% NDP 27% CPC 18% GPC 14% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 39% NDP 28% CPC 18% GPC 13% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 43% NDP 26% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 43% NDP 26% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 43% NDP 25% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 43% NDP 25% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 43% NDP 25% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 42% NDP 27% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 42% NDP 26% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 43% NDP 26% CPC 21% GPC 7% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 44% NDP 25% CPC 21% GPC 7% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 44% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 43% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 8% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 43% NDP 23% CPC 23% GPC 8% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 43% CPC 24% NDP 23% GPC 8% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 41% NDP 25% CPC 23% GPC 8% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 40% NDP 27% CPC 23% GPC 7% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 40% NDP 27% CPC 22% GPC 8% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 41% NDP 27% CPC 22% GPC 8% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 41% NDP 27% CPC 22% GPC 8% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 41% NDP 27% CPC 22% GPC 8% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 41% NDP 27% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 42% NDP 27% CPC 21% GPC 7% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 40% NDP 28% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 40% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 7% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Toronto Centre

LPC 93% CPC <1% NDP 7% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 94% NDP 6% CPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 93% NDP 7% CPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Toronto Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.8% 49.8% 38% ± 7% NDP 21.6% 26.2% 30% ± 7% CPC 12.6% 12.9% 22% ± 6% GPC 6.8% 8.1% 7% ± 4% PPC 0.1% 2.3% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.