Conservative Party of Canada
Latest update: April 28, 2024
| Leader | Pierre Poilievre |
| National popular vote in 2021 | 33.7% |
| Current vote projection | 42.1% ± 4.0% |
| Current number of MP's | 126 |
| Current seat projection | 211 [182-232] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Popular vote projection | April 28, 2024
Seat projection | April 28, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada
| Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Transposed 2021 winner |
Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Souris—Moose Mountain |  |
 |
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 2. | Battle River—Crowfoot |  |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 3. | Bow River | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 4. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 5. | Foothills | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 6. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies |  |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 7. | Grande Prairie | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 8. | Ponoka—Didsbury | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 9. | Yorkton—Melville | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 10. | Lakeland | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 11. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 12. | Huron—Bruce |  |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 13. | Beauce |  |
 |
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 14. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 15. | Cariboo—Prince George | |
 |
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 16. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 17. | Prince Albert | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 18. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 19. | Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna | |
 |
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 20. | Tobique—Mactaquac |  |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 21. | Calgary Shephard | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 22. | Perth—Wellington | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 23. | Red Deer | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 24. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 25. | Thornhill | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 26. | Peace River—Westlock | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 27. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 28. | York—Durham | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 29. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 30. | Lethbridge | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 31. | Brandon—Souris |  |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 32. | Riding Mountain | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 33. | Richmond—Arthabaska | |
 |
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 34. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 35. | Acadie—Annapolis |  |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 36. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 37. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 38. | Carleton | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 39. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 40. | Calgary Heritage | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 41. | Calgary Midnapore | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 42. | Abbotsford—South Langley | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 43. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | |
 |
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 44. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 45. | Chilliwack—Hope | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 46. | Parkland | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 47. | Airdrie—Cochrane | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 48. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 49. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 50. | Yellowhead | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 51. | South Surrey—White Rock | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 52. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 53. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 54. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 55. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 56. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 57. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 58. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 59. | Lanark—Frontenac | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 60. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 61. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 62. | Dufferin—Caledon | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 63. | Haldimand—Norfolk | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 64. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 65. | Kelowna | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 66. | Fundy Royal | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 67. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 68. | Barrie South—Innisfil | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 69. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 70. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 71. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 72. | Portage—Lisgar | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 73. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 74. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 75. | Calgary East | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 76. | King—Vaughan | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 77. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 78. | Oxford | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 79. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 80. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 81. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 82. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 83. | Wellington—Halton Hills North | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 84. | Middlesex—London | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 85. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 86. | Calgary Centre | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 87. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 88. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 89. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 90. | Bowmanville—Oshawa North | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 91. | Niagara West | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 92. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 93. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 94. | South Shore—St. Margarets | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 95. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 96. | Lévis—Lotbinière | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 97. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 98. | Provencher | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 99. | Simcoe North | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 100. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 101. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 102. | Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 103. | Edmonton West | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 104. | Peterborough | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 105. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 106. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 107. | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 108. | North Island—Powell River | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 109. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 110. | West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 111. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 112. | Richmond Centre—Marpole | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 113. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 114. | Niagara South | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 115. | Richmond East—Steveston | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 116. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 117. | Delta | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 118. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 119. | Saskatoon South | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 120. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 121. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 122. | Kitchener South—Hespeler | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 123. | Central Newfoundland |  |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 124. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 125. | Oshawa | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 126. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 127. | Edmonton Northwest | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 128. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 129. | Milton East—Halton Hills South | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 130. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 131. | Essex | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 132. | Edmonton Southeast | |
|
CPC safe hold | >99% |
| 133. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 134. | London West | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 135. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 136. | Vancouver Quadra | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 137. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 138. | Fredericton—Oromocto | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 139. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 140. | Burnaby North—Seymour | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 141. | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas | |
|
CPC safe gain | >99% |
| 142. | Cambridge | |
|
CPC likely gain | 99% |
| 143. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
CPC likely hold | 99% |
| 144. | Sydney—Glace Bay | |
|
CPC likely gain | 99% |
| 145. | Regina—Lewvan | |
|
CPC likely hold | 99% |
| 146. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | |
|
CPC likely gain | 99% |
| 147. | St. Catharines | |
|
CPC likely gain | 99% |
| 148. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
CPC likely gain | 99% |
| 149. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | |
|
CPC likely gain | 99% |
| 150. | Courtenay—Alberni | |
|
CPC likely gain | 99% |
| 151. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
CPC likely gain | 99% |
| 152. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
CPC likely gain | 99% |
| 153. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | |
|
CPC likely gain | 99% |
| 154. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
CPC likely gain | 98% |
| 155. | Kanata | |
|
CPC likely gain | 98% |
| 156. | Oakville East | |
|
CPC likely gain | 98% |
| 157. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
CPC likely hold | 98% |
| 158. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
CPC likely gain | 98% |
| 159. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
CPC likely gain | 98% |
| 160. | Burlington | |
|
CPC likely gain | 97% |
| 161. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
CPC likely gain | 97% |
| 162. | Malpeque |  |
|
CPC likely gain | 97% |
| 163. | Central Nova | |
|
CPC likely gain | 97% |
| 164. | Richmond Hill South | |
|
CPC likely gain | 96% |
| 165. | Oakville West | |
|
CPC likely gain | 96% |
| 166. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | |
|
CPC likely gain | 95% |
| 167. | York Centre | |
|
CPC likely gain | 95% |
| 168. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | |
|
CPC likely gain | 94% |
| 169. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
CPC likely gain | 94% |
| 170. | Saskatoon West | |
|
CPC likely hold | 93% |
| 171. | Burlington North—Milton West | |
|
CPC likely gain | 93% |
| 172. | Whitby | |
|
CPC likely gain | 92% |
| 173. | Vancouver Centre | |
|
CPC likely gain | 91% |
| 174. | Winnipeg West | |
|
CPC likely hold | 91% |
| 175. | Kings—Hants | |
|
CPC likely gain | 91% |
| 176. | Nepean | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 87% |
| 177. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
|
CPC leaning hold | 87% |
| 178. | Calgary McKnight | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 87% |
| 179. | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 87% |
| 180. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 86% |
| 181. | Labrador | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 85% |
| 182. | Egmont | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 83% |
| 183. | Etobicoke Centre | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 83% |
| 184. | Avalon | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 83% |
| 185. | Edmonton Centre | |
|
CPC leaning hold | 83% |
| 186. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 82% |
| 187. | Charlottetown | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 81% |
| 188. | Willowdale | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 81% |
| 189. | Sudbury | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 79% |
| 190. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 78% |
| 191. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 77% |
| 192. | Burnaby Central | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 75% |
| 193. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 73% |
| 194. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 72% |
| 195. | Trois-Rivières | |
|
CPC leaning gain | 72% |
| 196. | Cardigan | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 69% |
| 197. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 69% |
| 198. | Surrey Centre | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 67% |
| 199. | Brampton Centre | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 65% |
| 200. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | |
|
Toss up CPC/NDP | 64% |
| 201. | Yukon |  |
|
Toss up CPC/NDP | 64% |
| 202. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 64% |
| 203. | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | |
|
Toss up CPC/NDP | 63% |
| 204. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
Toss up CPC/BQ | 60% |
| 205. | Brampton North—Caledon | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 59% |
| 206. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 55% |
| 207. | Ottawa West—Nepean | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 53% |
| 208. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 52% |
| 209. | Waterloo | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 50% |
| 210. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 48% |
| 211. | Don Valley North | |
 |
Toss up LPC/CPC | 47% |
| 212. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
Toss up CPC/BQ | 45% |
| 213. | Guelph | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 44% |
| 214. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | |
|
Toss up CPC/NDP | 41% |
| 215. | London Centre | |
|
Toss up CPC/NDP | 41% |
| 216. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 41% |
| 217. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 41% |
| 218. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
Toss up CPC/NDP | 39% |
| 219. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 39% |
| 220. | Edmonton Griesbach | |
|
Toss up CPC/NDP | 38% |
| 221. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 37% |
| 222. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
Toss up LPC/CPC | 36% |
| 223. | Ottawa South | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 23% |
| 224. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 23% |
| 225. | Brampton South | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 23% |
| 226. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
NDP leaning hold | 22% |
| 227. | Brampton East | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 22% |
| 228. | Orléans | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 21% |
| 229. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
|
NDP leaning hold | 21% |
| 230. | Mississauga Centre | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 19% |
| 231. | Don Valley West | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 15% |
| 232. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 14% |
| 233. | Halifax West | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 11% |
| 234. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 11% |
| 235. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 10% |
| 236. | Brampton West | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 10% |
| 237. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
NDP leaning gain | 8% |
| 238. | Ajax | |
|
LPC likely hold | 8% |
| 239. | Winnipeg South | |
|
LPC likely hold | 7% |
| 240. | Kitchener Centre | |
|
GPC likely hold | 6% |
| 241. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | |
|
GPC likely hold | 5% |
| 242. | St. Boniface—St. Vital | |
|
LPC likely hold | 4% |
| 243. | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East | |
|
LPC likely hold | 3% |
| 244. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
Toss up LPC/NDP | 3% |
| 245. | Jonquière | |
|
BQ likely hold | 3% |
| 246. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 3% |
| 247. | Northwest Territories |  |
|
Toss up LPC/NDP | 2% |
| 248. | St. John’s East | |
|
LPC leaning hold | 2% |
| 249. | Winnipeg South Centre | |
|
LPC likely hold | 2% |
| 250. | Surrey Newton | |
|
LPC likely hold | 2% |
| 251. | Etobicoke North | |
|
LPC likely hold | 2% |
| 252. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | |
|
NDP likely hold | 1% |
| 253. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
LPC likely hold | 1% |
| 254. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
NDP likely hold | 1% |
| 255. | Cape Spear | |
|
LPC likely hold | 1% |
| 256. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
LPC likely hold | 1% |
| Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Souris—Moose Mountain | CPC safe hold |
| 2. | Battle River—Crowfoot | CPC safe hold |
| 3. | Bow River | CPC safe hold |
| 4. | Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | CPC safe hold |
| 5. | Foothills | CPC safe hold |
| 6. | Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies | CPC safe hold |
| 7. | Grande Prairie | CPC safe hold |
| 8. | Ponoka—Didsbury | CPC safe hold |
| 9. | Yorkton—Melville | CPC safe hold |
| 10. | Lakeland | CPC safe hold |
| 11. | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | CPC safe hold |
| 12. | Huron—Bruce | CPC safe hold |
| 13. | Beauce | CPC safe hold |
| 14. | Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | CPC safe hold |
| 15. | Cariboo—Prince George | CPC safe hold |
| 16. | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | CPC safe hold |
| 17. | Prince Albert | CPC safe hold |
| 18. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | CPC safe hold |
| 19. | Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna | CPC safe hold |
| 20. | Tobique—Mactaquac | CPC safe hold |
| 21. | Calgary Shephard | CPC safe hold |
| 22. | Perth—Wellington | CPC safe hold |
| 23. | Red Deer | CPC safe hold |
| 24. | Leduc—Wetaskiwin | CPC safe hold |
| 25. | Thornhill | CPC safe hold |
| 26. | Peace River—Westlock | CPC safe hold |
| 27. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | CPC safe hold |
| 28. | York—Durham | CPC safe hold |
| 29. | Regina—Qu’Appelle | CPC safe hold |
| 30. | Lethbridge | CPC safe hold |
| 31. | Brandon—Souris | CPC safe hold |
| 32. | Riding Mountain | CPC safe hold |
| 33. | Richmond—Arthabaska | CPC safe hold |
| 34. | Calgary Signal Hill | CPC safe hold |
| 35. | Acadie—Annapolis | CPC safe hold |
| 36. | Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière | CPC safe hold |
| 37. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | CPC safe hold |
| 38. | Carleton | CPC safe hold |
| 39. | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | CPC safe hold |
| 40. | Calgary Heritage | CPC safe hold |
| 41. | Calgary Midnapore | CPC safe hold |
| 42. | Abbotsford—South Langley | CPC safe hold |
| 43. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | CPC safe hold |
| 44. | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | CPC safe hold |
| 45. | Chilliwack—Hope | CPC safe hold |
| 46. | Parkland | CPC safe hold |
| 47. | Airdrie—Cochrane | CPC safe hold |
| 48. | Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake | CPC safe hold |
| 49. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | CPC safe hold |
| 50. | Yellowhead | CPC safe hold |
| 51. | South Surrey—White Rock | CPC safe hold |
| 52. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | CPC safe hold |
| 53. | Cumberland—Colchester | CPC safe hold |
| 54. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London South | CPC safe hold |
| 55. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | CPC safe hold |
| 56. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | CPC safe hold |
| 57. | Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | CPC safe hold |
| 58. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | CPC safe hold |
| 59. | Lanark—Frontenac | CPC safe hold |
| 60. | Saint John—St. Croix | CPC safe hold |
| 61. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | CPC safe hold |
| 62. | Dufferin—Caledon | CPC safe hold |
| 63. | Haldimand—Norfolk | CPC safe hold |
| 64. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | CPC safe hold |
| 65. | Kelowna | CPC safe hold |
| 66. | Fundy Royal | CPC safe hold |
| 67. | Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | CPC safe hold |
| 68. | Barrie South—Innisfil | CPC safe hold |
| 69. | Calgary Nose Hill | CPC safe hold |
| 70. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | CPC safe hold |
| 71. | St. Albert—Sturgeon River | CPC safe hold |
| 72. | Portage—Lisgar | CPC safe hold |
| 73. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | CPC safe hold |
| 74. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | CPC safe hold |
| 75. | Calgary East | CPC safe hold |
| 76. | King—Vaughan | CPC safe hold |
| 77. | Simcoe—Grey | CPC safe hold |
| 78. | Oxford | CPC safe hold |
| 79. | Calgary Crowfoot | CPC safe hold |
| 80. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | CPC safe hold |
| 81. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | CPC safe hold |
| 82. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | CPC safe hold |
| 83. | Wellington—Halton Hills North | CPC safe hold |
| 84. | Middlesex—London | CPC safe hold |
| 85. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | CPC safe hold |
| 86. | Calgary Centre | CPC safe hold |
| 87. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | CPC safe hold |
| 88. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | CPC safe hold |
| 89. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North | CPC safe hold |
| 90. | Bowmanville—Oshawa North | CPC safe hold |
| 91. | Niagara West | CPC safe hold |
| 92. | Northumberland—Clarke | CPC safe hold |
| 93. | Regina—Wascana | CPC safe hold |
| 94. | South Shore—St. Margarets | CPC safe hold |
| 95. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | CPC safe hold |
| 96. | Lévis—Lotbinière | CPC safe hold |
| 97. | Cloverdale—Langley City | CPC safe gain |
| 98. | Provencher | CPC safe hold |
| 99. | Simcoe North | CPC safe hold |
| 100. | Bay of Quinte | CPC safe hold |
| 101. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | CPC safe hold |
| 102. | Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations | CPC safe hold |
| 103. | Edmonton West | CPC safe hold |
| 104. | Peterborough | CPC safe hold |
| 105. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | CPC safe hold |
| 106. | Calgary Confederation | CPC safe hold |
| 107. | Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay | CPC safe gain |
| 108. | North Island—Powell River | CPC safe gain |
| 109. | Edmonton Riverbend | CPC safe hold |
| 110. | West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | CPC safe gain |
| 111. | Skeena—Bulkley Valley | CPC safe gain |
| 112. | Richmond Centre—Marpole | CPC safe gain |
| 113. | Calgary Skyview | CPC safe hold |
| 114. | Niagara South | CPC safe hold |
| 115. | Richmond East—Steveston | CPC safe gain |
| 116. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | CPC safe gain |
| 117. | Delta | CPC safe gain |
| 118. | Edmonton Gateway | CPC safe hold |
| 119. | Saskatoon South | CPC safe hold |
| 120. | Kildonan—St. Paul | CPC safe hold |
| 121. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | CPC safe gain |
| 122. | Kitchener South—Hespeler | CPC safe gain |
| 123. | Central Newfoundland | CPC safe hold |
| 124. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | CPC safe hold |
| 125. | Oshawa | CPC safe hold |
| 126. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | CPC safe hold |
| 127. | Edmonton Northwest | CPC safe hold |
| 128. | Kitchener—Conestoga | CPC safe gain |
| 129. | Milton East—Halton Hills South | CPC safe gain |
| 130. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | CPC safe hold |
| 131. | Essex | CPC safe hold |
| 132. | Edmonton Southeast | CPC safe hold |
| 133. | Long Range Mountains | CPC safe gain |
| 134. | London West | CPC safe gain |
| 135. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | CPC safe gain |
| 136. | Vancouver Quadra | CPC safe gain |
| 137. | North Vancouver—Capilano | CPC safe gain |
| 138. | Fredericton—Oromocto | CPC safe gain |
| 139. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | CPC safe gain |
| 140. | Burnaby North—Seymour | CPC safe gain |
| 141. | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas | CPC safe gain |
| 142. | Cambridge | CPC likely gain |
| 143. | Saskatoon—University | CPC likely hold |
| 144. | Sydney—Glace Bay | CPC likely gain |
| 145. | Regina—Lewvan | CPC likely hold |
| 146. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | CPC likely gain |
| 147. | St. Catharines | CPC likely gain |
| 148. | Vancouver Granville | CPC likely gain |
| 149. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | CPC likely gain |
| 150. | Courtenay—Alberni | CPC likely gain |
| 151. | Newmarket—Aurora | CPC likely gain |
| 152. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | CPC likely gain |
| 153. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | CPC likely gain |
| 154. | Markham—Unionville | CPC likely gain |
| 155. | Kanata | CPC likely gain |
| 156. | Oakville East | CPC likely gain |
| 157. | Edmonton Manning | CPC likely hold |
| 158. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | CPC likely gain |
| 159. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | CPC likely gain |
| 160. | Burlington | CPC likely gain |
| 161. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | CPC likely gain |
| 162. | Malpeque | CPC likely gain |
| 163. | Central Nova | CPC likely gain |
| 164. | Richmond Hill South | CPC likely gain |
| 165. | Oakville West | CPC likely gain |
| 166. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | CPC likely gain |
| 167. | York Centre | CPC likely gain |
| 168. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | CPC likely gain |
| 169. | Eglinton—Lawrence | CPC likely gain |
| 170. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely hold |
| 171. | Burlington North—Milton West | CPC likely gain |
| 172. | Whitby | CPC likely gain |
| 173. | Vancouver Centre | CPC likely gain |
| 174. | Winnipeg West | CPC likely hold |
| 175. | Kings—Hants | CPC likely gain |
| 176. | Nepean | CPC leaning gain |
| 177. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | CPC leaning hold |
| 178. | Calgary McKnight | CPC leaning gain |
| 179. | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby | CPC leaning gain |
| 180. | Mississauga—Streetsville | CPC leaning gain |
| 181. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain |
| 182. | Egmont | CPC leaning gain |
| 183. | Etobicoke Centre | CPC leaning gain |
| 184. | Avalon | CPC leaning gain |
| 185. | Edmonton Centre | CPC leaning hold |
| 186. | Pickering—Brooklin | CPC leaning gain |
| 187. | Charlottetown | CPC leaning gain |
| 188. | Willowdale | CPC leaning gain |
| 189. | Sudbury | CPC leaning gain |
| 190. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | CPC leaning gain |
| 191. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | CPC leaning gain |
| 192. | Burnaby Central | CPC leaning gain |
| 193. | Louis-Hébert | CPC leaning gain |
| 194. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | CPC leaning gain |
| 195. | Trois-Rivières | CPC leaning gain |
| 196. | Cardigan | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 197. | Markham—Stouffville | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 198. | Surrey Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 199. | Brampton Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 200. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | Toss up CPC/NDP |
| 201. | Yukon | Toss up CPC/NDP |
| 202. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 203. | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | Toss up CPC/NDP |
| 204. | Beauport—Limoilou | Toss up CPC/BQ |
| 205. | Brampton North—Caledon | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 206. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 207. | Ottawa West—Nepean | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 208. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 209. | Waterloo | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 210. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 211. | Don Valley North | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 212. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | Toss up CPC/BQ |
| 213. | Guelph | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 214. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | Toss up CPC/NDP |
| 215. | London Centre | Toss up CPC/NDP |
| 216. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
| 217. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
| 218. | Hamilton Mountain | Toss up CPC/NDP |
| 219. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
| 220. | Edmonton Griesbach | Toss up CPC/NDP |
| 221. | Madawaska—Restigouche | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 222. | Mississauga—Malton | Toss up LPC/CPC |
| 223. | Ottawa South | LPC leaning hold |
| 224. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | LPC leaning hold |
| 225. | Brampton South | LPC leaning hold |
| 226. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | NDP leaning hold |
| 227. | Brampton East | LPC leaning hold |
| 228. | Orléans | LPC leaning hold |
| 229. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | NDP leaning hold |
| 230. | Mississauga Centre | LPC leaning hold |
| 231. | Don Valley West | LPC leaning hold |
| 232. | Scarborough—Agincourt | LPC leaning hold |
| 233. | Halifax West | LPC leaning hold |
| 234. | Moncton—Dieppe | LPC leaning hold |
| 235. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | LPC leaning hold |
| 236. | Brampton West | LPC leaning hold |
| 237. | Spadina—Harbourfront | NDP leaning gain |
| 238. | Ajax | LPC likely hold |
| 239. | Winnipeg South | LPC likely hold |
| 240. | Kitchener Centre | GPC likely hold |
| 241. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | GPC likely hold |
| 242. | St. Boniface—St. Vital | LPC likely hold |
| 243. | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East | LPC likely hold |
| 244. | Toronto—Danforth | Toss up LPC/NDP |
| 245. | Jonquière | BQ likely hold |
| 246. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | LPC leaning hold |
| 247. | Northwest Territories | Toss up LPC/NDP |
| 248. | St. John’s East | LPC leaning hold |
| 249. | Winnipeg South Centre | LPC likely hold |
| 250. | Surrey Newton | LPC likely hold |
| 251. | Etobicoke North | LPC likely hold |
| 252. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | NDP likely hold |
| 253. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | LPC likely hold |
| 254. | London—Fanshawe | NDP likely hold |
| 255. | Cape Spear | LPC likely hold |
| 256. | Markham—Thornhill | LPC likely hold |
