logo
British columbia

Welcome to 338Canada British Columbia!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | British Columbia


Latest update: February 1, 2024

Popular vote projection 46% ± 5%▲ 22% ± 4% 18% ± 3%▼ 11% ± 3%▼ 3% ± 3% OTH338Canada Popular vote projection | February 1, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 47 seats for a majority 81▲ [67-90] 6▲ [0-19] 4▼ [0-10] 2 [1-3] 338Canada seat projection | February 1, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% <1% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 1, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% NDP maj. <1% NDP min. <1% BCC min. <1% BCC maj. Odds of outcome | February 1, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

British Columbia | Popular vote projection

BCU BCC NDP BCG BCU 18% ± 3% BCC 22% ± 4% NDP 46% ± 5% BCG 11% ± 3% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2024

British Columbia | Seat projection

BCU 3 [0-10] BCC 7 [0-19] NDP 81 [67-90] BCG 2 [1-3] Seat projection 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP BCG Majority: 47 seats

British Columbia | Odds of winning the most seats

NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP BCG Tie

British Columbia | Odds of election outcome

NDP majority >99% NDP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2024 NDP majority NDP minority