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338Canada federal projection | Ontario, 121 districts


Latest update: March 17, 2024
Ontario 44% ± 6% 28% ± 5% 19% ± 4% 5% ± 2%▼ 3% ± 3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Ontario, 121 federal districts 89 [74-102] 22▲ [9-37] 9▼ [3-15] 1 [1-1] 338Canada seat projection | March 17, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Ontario

LPC 28% ± 5% CPC 44% ± 6% NDP 19% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 2% PPC 3% ± 3% 338Canada Popular vote projection % | Ontario 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Seat projection | Ontario

LPC 22 [9-37] CPC 89 [74-102] NDP 9 [3-15] GPC 1 [1-1] 338Canada seat projection | Ontario 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
51 24 9 5 89 37
8 4 5 5 22 78
3 0 5 1 9 5
0 1 0 0 1 1

List of electoral districts


Latest update: March 17, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
35001 Ajax LPC leaning hold
35002 Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold
35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC safe gain
35004 Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
35006 Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold
35007 Beaches–East York LPC safe hold
35008 Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain
35009 Brampton East LPC leaning hold
35010 Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC
35011 Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
35012 Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC
35013 Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
35015 Burlington CPC likely gain
35016 Cambridge CPC safe gain
35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
35018 Davenport NDP leaning gain
35019 Don Valley East LPC likely hold
35020 Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC
35021 Don Valley West CPC likely gain
35022 Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
35023 Durham CPC safe hold
35024 Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain
35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
35026 Essex CPC safe hold
35027 Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain
35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
35029 Etobicoke North LPC likely hold
35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC safe hold
35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC likely gain
35032 Guelph CPC leaning gain
35033 Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
35035 Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold
35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain
35037 Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain
35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain
35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold
35040 Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
35041 Kanata–Carleton CPC safe gain
35042 Kenora CPC safe hold
35043 King–Vaughan CPC safe hold
35044 Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35045 Kitchener Centre GPC likely hold
35046 Kitchener–Conestoga CPC safe gain
35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC safe gain
35048 Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
35049 Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
35051 London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold
35052 London North Centre CPC likely gain
35053 London West CPC safe gain
35054 Markham–Stouffville CPC likely gain
35055 Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold
35056 Markham–Unionville CPC safe gain
35057 Milton CPC leaning gain
35058 Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold
35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain
35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain
35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
35062 Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
35063 Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain
35064 Nepean CPC likely gain
35065 Newmarket–Aurora CPC safe gain
35066 Niagara Centre CPC safe gain
35067 Niagara Falls CPC safe hold
35068 Niagara West CPC safe hold
35069 Nickel Belt CPC likely gain
35070 Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC safe gain
35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
35072 Oakville CPC safe gain
35073 Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain
35074 Oshawa CPC safe hold
35075 Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
35076 Orléans CPC leaning gain
35077 Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
35078 Ottawa–Vanier LPC leaning hold
35079 Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain
35080 Oxford CPC safe hold
35081 Parkdale–High Park NDP leaning gain
35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
35083 Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
35084 Peterborough–Kawartha CPC safe hold
35085 Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain
35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
35087 Richmond Hill CPC likely gain
35088 Carleton CPC safe hold
35089 St. Catharines CPC safe gain
35090 Toronto–St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
35091 Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
35092 Sault Ste. Marie CPC safe gain
35093 Scarborough–Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC
35094 Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold
35095 Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold
35096 Scarborough North LPC safe hold
35097 Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold
35098 Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
35099 Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
35100 Simcoe North CPC safe hold
35101 Spadina–Fort York NDP leaning gain
35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
35103 Sudbury CPC likely gain
35104 Thornhill CPC safe hold
35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC likely gain
35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain
35107 Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP
35108 Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
35109 Toronto–Danforth NDP leaning gain
35110 University–Rosedale LPC leaning hold
35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC safe gain
35112 Waterloo CPC likely gain
35113 Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
35114 Whitby CPC likely gain
35115 Willowdale CPC likely gain
35116 Windsor–Tecumseh CPC leaning gain
35117 Windsor West NDP safe hold
35118 York Centre CPC likely gain
35119 York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
35120 York South–Weston LPC safe hold
35121 Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold