Liberal Party of Canada
Latest update: March 17, 2024
Leader | Justin Trudeau |
National popular vote in 2021 | 32.6% |
Current vote projection | 24.4% ± 3.2% |
Current number of MP's | 158 |
Current seat projection | 64 [43-90] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
Seat projection | March 17, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
2. | Scarborough North | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
3. | Acadie–Bathurst | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
4. | Scarborough–Rouge Park | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
5. | Markham–Thornhill | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
6. | Bourassa | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
7. | Honoré-Mercier | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
8. | Humber River–Black Creek | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
9. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
10. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
11. | Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
12. | Hull–Aylmer | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
13. | Scarborough–Guildwood | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
14. | Brossard–Saint-Lambert | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
15. | Surrey–Newton | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
16. | Lac-Saint-Louis | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
17. | Saint-Laurent | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
18. | Vimy | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
19. | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
20. | Beaches–East York | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
21. | Gatineau | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
22. | Pierrefonds–Dollard | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
23. | York South–Weston | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
24. | Vaudreuil–Soulanges | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
25. | Scarborough Southwest | LPC safe hold | >99% | ||
26. | St. John’s South–Mount Pearl | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
27. | Laval–Les Îles | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
28. | Don Valley East | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
29. | Beauséjour | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
30. | Winnipeg South Centre | LPC likely hold | 99% | ||
31. | Alfred-Pellan | LPC likely hold | 98% | ||
32. | Mount Royal | LPC likely hold | 98% | ||
33. | Papineau | LPC likely hold | 96% | ||
34. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | LPC likely hold | 96% | ||
35. | Etobicoke North | LPC likely hold | 95% | ||
36. | Halifax West | LPC likely hold | 94% | ||
37. | Vancouver South | LPC likely hold | 93% | ||
38. | Scarborough Centre | LPC likely hold | 93% | ||
39. | Surrey Centre | LPC likely hold | 93% | ||
40. | Toronto Centre | LPC likely hold | 90% | ||
41. | Ajax | LPC leaning hold | 87% | ||
42. | Winnipeg North | LPC leaning hold | 87% | ||
43. | University–Rosedale | LPC leaning hold | 85% | ||
44. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | LPC leaning hold | 82% | ||
45. | Madawaska–Restigouche | LPC leaning hold | 81% | ||
46. | Ottawa–Vanier | LPC leaning hold | 81% | ||
47. | Saint Boniface–Saint Vital | LPC leaning hold | 81% | ||
48. | Mississauga Centre | LPC leaning hold | 74% | ||
49. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | LPC leaning hold | 74% | ||
50. | Brampton East | LPC leaning hold | 72% | ||
51. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | LPC leaning hold | 70% | ||
52. | Vancouver Centre | LPC leaning hold | 70% | ||
53. | Brampton West | Toss up LPC/CPC | 69% | ||
54. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | Toss up LPC/CPC | 64% | ||
55. | Winnipeg South | Toss up LPC/CPC | 60% | ||
56. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 60% | ||
57. | Hochelaga | Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ | 58% | ||
58. | Outremont | Toss up LPC/NDP | 58% | ||
59. | Scarborough–Agincourt | Toss up LPC/CPC | 57% | ||
60. | Pontiac | Toss up LPC/CPC | 56% | ||
61. | Cardigan | Toss up LPC/CPC | 53% | ||
62. | St. John’s East | Toss up LPC/NDP | 52% | ||
63. | Don Valley North | Toss up LPC/CPC | 51% | ||
64. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP | 50% | ||
65. | Mississauga–Malton | Toss up LPC/CPC | 46% | ||
66. | Brampton North | Toss up LPC/CPC | 46% | ||
67. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP | 44% | ||
68. | Sherbrooke | Toss up LPC/BQ | 42% | ||
69. | Burnaby North–Seymour | Toss up LPC/CPC | 41% | ||
70. | Brampton South | Toss up LPC/CPC | 38% | ||
71. | Ottawa South | Toss up LPC/CPC | 37% | ||
72. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | Toss up LPC/NDP | 35% | ||
73. | Vancouver Quadra | Toss up LPC/CPC | 33% | ||
74. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Toss up LPC/BQ | 30% | ||
75. | Charlottetown | Toss up LPC/CPC | 30% | ||
76. | North Vancouver | Toss up LPC/CPC | 30% | ||
77. | Québec | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 30% | ||
78. | Northwest Territories | NDP leaning gain | 29% | ||
79. | Egmont | CPC leaning gain | 28% | ||
80. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Toss up LPC/CPC | 26% | ||
81. | Milton | CPC leaning gain | 25% | ||
82. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | BQ leaning gain | 25% | ||
83. | Spadina–Fort York | NDP leaning gain | 24% | ||
84. | Orléans | CPC leaning gain | 24% | ||
85. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | CPC leaning gain | 23% | ||
86. | Kings–Hants | CPC leaning gain | 22% | ||
87. | Toronto–Danforth | NDP leaning gain | 20% | ||
88. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain | 18% | ||
89. | Mississauga East–Cooksville | CPC leaning gain | 18% | ||
90. | Steveston–Richmond East | CPC leaning gain | 17% | ||
91. | Parkdale–High Park | NDP leaning gain | 15% | ||
92. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 14% | ||
93. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | CPC leaning gain | 14% | ||
94. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | BQ leaning gain | 14% | ||
95. | Saint John–Rothesay | CPC leaning gain | 13% | ||
96. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain | 13% | ||
97. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 13% | ||
98. | Davenport | NDP leaning gain | 12% | ||
99. | Central Nova | CPC leaning gain | 12% | ||
100. | Avalon | CPC leaning gain | 12% | ||
101. | Brampton Centre | CPC leaning gain | 11% | ||
102. | Guelph | CPC leaning gain | 10% | ||
103. | Delta | CPC likely gain | 9% | ||
104. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | CPC likely gain | 9% | ||
105. | Willowdale | CPC likely gain | 9% | ||
106. | Cape Breton–Canso | CPC likely gain | 9% | ||
107. | Compton–Stanstead | Toss up CPC/BQ | 8% | ||
108. | Malpeque | CPC likely gain | 8% | ||
109. | Don Valley West | CPC likely gain | 7% | ||
110. | Waterloo | CPC likely gain | 7% | ||
111. | Markham–Stouffville | CPC likely gain | 7% | ||
112. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | BQ likely gain | 6% | ||
113. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | CPC likely gain | 6% | ||
114. | Mississauga–Streetsville | CPC likely gain | 6% | ||
115. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | CPC leaning gain | 6% | ||
116. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | CPC likely gain | 5% | ||
117. | Louis-Hébert | CPC likely gain | 5% | ||
118. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | CPC likely gain | 5% | ||
119. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ likely gain | 4% | ||
120. | Ottawa West–Nepean | CPC likely gain | 4% | ||
121. | Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas | CPC likely gain | 3% | ||
122. | Etobicoke Centre | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
123. | Eglinton–Lawrence | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
124. | Nepean | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
125. | Calgary Skyview | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
126. | London North Centre | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
127. | Pickering–Uxbridge | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
128. | York Centre | CPC likely gain | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel | LPC safe hold |
2. | Scarborough North | LPC safe hold |
3. | Acadie–Bathurst | LPC safe hold |
4. | Scarborough–Rouge Park | LPC safe hold |
5. | Markham–Thornhill | LPC safe hold |
6. | Bourassa | LPC safe hold |
7. | Honoré-Mercier | LPC safe hold |
8. | Humber River–Black Creek | LPC safe hold |
9. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount | LPC safe hold |
10. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | LPC safe hold |
11. | Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle | LPC safe hold |
12. | Hull–Aylmer | LPC safe hold |
13. | Scarborough–Guildwood | LPC safe hold |
14. | Brossard–Saint-Lambert | LPC safe hold |
15. | Surrey–Newton | LPC safe hold |
16. | Lac-Saint-Louis | LPC safe hold |
17. | Saint-Laurent | LPC safe hold |
18. | Vimy | LPC safe hold |
19. | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs | LPC safe hold |
20. | Beaches–East York | LPC safe hold |
21. | Gatineau | LPC safe hold |
22. | Pierrefonds–Dollard | LPC safe hold |
23. | York South–Weston | LPC safe hold |
24. | Vaudreuil–Soulanges | LPC safe hold |
25. | Scarborough Southwest | LPC safe hold |
26. | St. John’s South–Mount Pearl | LPC likely hold |
27. | Laval–Les Îles | LPC likely hold |
28. | Don Valley East | LPC likely hold |
29. | Beauséjour | LPC likely hold |
30. | Winnipeg South Centre | LPC likely hold |
31. | Alfred-Pellan | LPC likely hold |
32. | Mount Royal | LPC likely hold |
33. | Papineau | LPC likely hold |
34. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | LPC likely hold |
35. | Etobicoke North | LPC likely hold |
36. | Halifax West | LPC likely hold |
37. | Vancouver South | LPC likely hold |
38. | Scarborough Centre | LPC likely hold |
39. | Surrey Centre | LPC likely hold |
40. | Toronto Centre | LPC likely hold |
41. | Ajax | LPC leaning hold |
42. | Winnipeg North | LPC leaning hold |
43. | University–Rosedale | LPC leaning hold |
44. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | LPC leaning hold |
45. | Madawaska–Restigouche | LPC leaning hold |
46. | Ottawa–Vanier | LPC leaning hold |
47. | Saint Boniface–Saint Vital | LPC leaning hold |
48. | Mississauga Centre | LPC leaning hold |
49. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | LPC leaning hold |
50. | Brampton East | LPC leaning hold |
51. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | LPC leaning hold |
52. | Vancouver Centre | LPC leaning hold |
53. | Brampton West | Toss up LPC/CPC |
54. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | Toss up LPC/CPC |
55. | Winnipeg South | Toss up LPC/CPC |
56. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ |
57. | Hochelaga | Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ |
58. | Outremont | Toss up LPC/NDP |
59. | Scarborough–Agincourt | Toss up LPC/CPC |
60. | Pontiac | Toss up LPC/CPC |
61. | Cardigan | Toss up LPC/CPC |
62. | St. John’s East | Toss up LPC/NDP |
63. | Don Valley North | Toss up LPC/CPC |
64. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP |
65. | Mississauga–Malton | Toss up LPC/CPC |
66. | Brampton North | Toss up LPC/CPC |
67. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP |
68. | Sherbrooke | Toss up LPC/BQ |
69. | Burnaby North–Seymour | Toss up LPC/CPC |
70. | Brampton South | Toss up LPC/CPC |
71. | Ottawa South | Toss up LPC/CPC |
72. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | Toss up LPC/NDP |
73. | Vancouver Quadra | Toss up LPC/CPC |
74. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Toss up LPC/BQ |
75. | Charlottetown | Toss up LPC/CPC |
76. | North Vancouver | Toss up LPC/CPC |
77. | Québec | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ |
78. | Northwest Territories | NDP leaning gain |
79. | Egmont | CPC leaning gain |
80. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Toss up LPC/CPC |
81. | Milton | CPC leaning gain |
82. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | BQ leaning gain |
83. | Spadina–Fort York | NDP leaning gain |
84. | Orléans | CPC leaning gain |
85. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | CPC leaning gain |
86. | Kings–Hants | CPC leaning gain |
87. | Toronto–Danforth | NDP leaning gain |
88. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain |
89. | Mississauga East–Cooksville | CPC leaning gain |
90. | Steveston–Richmond East | CPC leaning gain |
91. | Parkdale–High Park | NDP leaning gain |
92. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
93. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | CPC leaning gain |
94. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | BQ leaning gain |
95. | Saint John–Rothesay | CPC leaning gain |
96. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain |
97. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
98. | Davenport | NDP leaning gain |
99. | Central Nova | CPC leaning gain |
100. | Avalon | CPC leaning gain |
101. | Brampton Centre | CPC leaning gain |
102. | Guelph | CPC leaning gain |
103. | Delta | CPC likely gain |
104. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | CPC likely gain |
105. | Willowdale | CPC likely gain |
106. | Cape Breton–Canso | CPC likely gain |
107. | Compton–Stanstead | Toss up CPC/BQ |
108. | Malpeque | CPC likely gain |
109. | Don Valley West | CPC likely gain |
110. | Waterloo | CPC likely gain |
111. | Markham–Stouffville | CPC likely gain |
112. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | BQ likely gain |
113. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | CPC likely gain |
114. | Mississauga–Streetsville | CPC likely gain |
115. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | CPC leaning gain |
116. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | CPC likely gain |
117. | Louis-Hébert | CPC likely gain |
118. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | CPC likely gain |
119. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ likely gain |
120. | Ottawa West–Nepean | CPC likely gain |
121. | Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas | CPC likely gain |
122. | Etobicoke Centre | CPC likely gain |
123. | Eglinton–Lawrence | CPC likely gain |
124. | Nepean | CPC likely gain |
125. | Calgary Skyview | CPC likely gain |
126. | London North Centre | CPC likely gain |
127. | Pickering–Uxbridge | CPC likely gain |
128. | York Centre | CPC likely gain |