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Welcome to 338Canada Toronto!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Enjoy the website!


2023 Toronto mayoral by-election: June 26, 2023




338Canada Projection | Toronto Mayoral Election


Latest update: June 26, 2023

Popular vote projection 34% ± 6%▲ Chow 26% ± 6%▼ Bailão 12% ± 4% Saunders 9% ± 4%▼ Furey 8% ± 3% Matlow 5% ± 3% Hunter 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 26, 2023
50% 100% Odds of winning 89%▲ Chow 11%▼ Bailão <1% Saunders <1% Furey <1% Matlow Odds of winning | June 26, 2023

[▲▼: movement since previous update]
Bailão Saunders Chow Furey Hunter Matlow Bradford Voting intentions % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-05-15 2023-06-01 2023-06-15 2023-07-01 Election 2023 Campaign►


Toronto | Popular vote projection

Bailão Saunders Chow Furey Hunter Matlow Bradford Bailão 26% ± 6% Saunders 12% ± 4% Chow 34% ± 6% Furey 9% ± 4% Hunter 5% ± 3% Matlow 8% ± 3% Bradford 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-05-15 2023-06-01 2023-06-15 2023-07-01 Election 2023 Campaign►

Toronto | Odds of winning

Bailão 11% Saunders <1% Chow 89% Furey <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-05-15 2023-06-01 2023-06-15 2023-07-01 Election 2023 Campaign► Bailão Saunders Chow Furey