Conservative Party of Canada
Latest update: March 17, 2024
Leader | Pierre Poilievre |
National popular vote in 2021 | 33.7% |
Current vote projection | 42.1% ± 3.9% |
Current number of MP's | 118 |
Current seat projection | 211 [182-232] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
Seat projection | March 17, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Souris–Moose Mountain | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
2. | Bow River | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
3. | Fort McMurray–Cold Lake | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
4. | Battle River–Crowfoot | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
5. | Cypress Hills–Grasslands | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
6. | Lakeland | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
7. | Yorkton–Melville | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
8. | Grande Prairie–Mackenzie | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
9. | Red Deer–Lacombe | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
10. | Yellowhead | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
11. | Foothills | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
12. | Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
13. | Mégantic–L’Érable | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
14. | Red Deer–Mountain View | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
15. | Portage–Lisgar | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
16. | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
17. | Prince Albert | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
18. | Battlefords–Lloydminster | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
19. | Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
20. | Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
21. | Sturgeon River–Parkland | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
22. | Regina–Qu’Appelle | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
23. | Peace River–Westlock | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
24. | Calgary Shepard | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
25. | Calgary Heritage | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
26. | Huron–Bruce | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
27. | Calgary Midnapore | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
28. | Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
29. | Beauce | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
30. | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
31. | Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
32. | Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
33. | Lévis–Lotbinière | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
34. | Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
35. | Wellington–Halton Hills | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
36. | Haldimand–Norfolk | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
37. | Louis-Saint-Laurent | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
38. | Richmond–Arthabaska | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
39. | Calgary Signal Hill | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
40. | Thornhill | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
41. | Barrie–Innisfil | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
42. | Perth–Wellington | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
43. | Carleton | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
44. | Tobique–Mactaquac | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
45. | Cariboo–Prince George | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
46. | Lethbridge | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
47. | Banff–Airdrie | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
48. | Calgary Nose Hill | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
49. | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
50. | West Nova | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
51. | Elgin–Middlesex–London | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
52. | Edmonton–Wetaskiwin | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
53. | Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
54. | Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
55. | York–Simcoe | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
56. | New Brunswick Southwest | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
57. | Abbotsford | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
58. | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
59. | Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
60. | Langley–Aldergrove | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
61. | Lambton–Kent–Middlesex | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
62. | Fundy Royal | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
63. | Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
64. | Calgary Rocky Ridge | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
65. | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
66. | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
67. | North Okanagan–Shuswap | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
68. | Simcoe–Grey | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
69. | Hastings–Lennox and Addington | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
70. | Sarnia–Lambton | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
71. | Brandon–Souris | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
72. | Dufferin–Caledon | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
73. | Kelowna–Lake Country | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
74. | Chilliwack–Hope | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
75. | Cumberland–Colchester | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
76. | Regina–Wascana | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
77. | Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
78. | Niagara West | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
79. | Durham | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
80. | King–Vaughan | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
81. | Parry Sound–Muskoka | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
82. | Northumberland–Peterborough South | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
83. | South Surrey–White Rock | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
84. | Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
85. | Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
86. | Calgary Centre | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
87. | Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
88. | Chatham-Kent–Leamington | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
89. | Simcoe North | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
90. | Kootenay–Columbia | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
91. | Provencher | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
92. | Oxford | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
93. | Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
94. | Bay of Quinte | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
95. | Brantford–Brant | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
96. | Flamborough–Glanbrook | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
97. | Peterborough–Kawartha | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
98. | Calgary Confederation | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
99. | Calgary Forest Lawn | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
100. | South Shore–St. Margarets | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
101. | Niagara Falls | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
102. | Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
103. | Miramichi–Grand Lake | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
104. | Edmonton West | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
105. | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
106. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
107. | Edmonton Riverbend | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
108. | Edmonton Mill Woods | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
109. | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
110. | Kitchener South–Hespeler | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
111. | Kitchener–Conestoga | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
112. | Sault Ste. Marie | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
113. | Oshawa | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
114. | Cambridge | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
115. | St. Albert–Edmonton | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
116. | St. Catharines | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
117. | Kanata–Carleton | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
118. | Essex | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
119. | Kenora | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
120. | Kildonan–St. Paul | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
121. | Markham–Unionville | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
122. | Niagara Centre | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
123. | Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
124. | Newmarket–Aurora | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
125. | London West | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
126. | Vaughan–Woodbridge | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
127. | Nipissing–Timiskaming | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
128. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | CPC safe hold | >99% | ||
129. | Oakville | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
130. | Fredericton | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
131. | Sydney–Victoria | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
132. | Bonavista–Burin–Trinity | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
133. | Long Range Mountains | CPC safe gain | >99% | ||
134. | Glengarry–Prescott–Russell | CPC likely gain | 99% | ||
135. | Cloverdale–Langley City | CPC likely gain | 99% | ||
136. | Burlington | CPC likely gain | 99% | ||
137. | Oakville North–Burlington | CPC likely gain | 99% | ||
138. | Richmond Hill | CPC likely gain | 99% | ||
139. | Whitby | CPC likely gain | 99% | ||
140. | South Okanagan–West Kootenay | CPC likely gain | 99% | ||
141. | Richmond Centre | CPC likely gain | 99% | ||
142. | York Centre | CPC likely gain | 99% | ||
143. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | CPC likely gain | 99% | ||
144. | Edmonton Manning | CPC likely hold | 98% | ||
145. | Pickering–Uxbridge | CPC likely gain | 98% | ||
146. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | CPC likely gain | 98% | ||
147. | Saskatoon–University | CPC likely hold | 98% | ||
148. | Regina–Lewvan | CPC likely hold | 98% | ||
149. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | CPC likely gain | 98% | ||
150. | Calgary Skyview | CPC likely gain | 98% | ||
151. | Nepean | CPC likely gain | 98% | ||
152. | Eglinton–Lawrence | CPC likely gain | 98% | ||
153. | Etobicoke Centre | CPC likely gain | 98% | ||
154. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | CPC likely gain | 97% | ||
155. | Trois-Rivières | CPC likely gain | 97% | ||
156. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | CPC likely gain | 97% | ||
157. | Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas | CPC likely gain | 97% | ||
158. | Sudbury | CPC likely gain | 97% | ||
159. | Beauport–Limoilou | CPC likely gain | 97% | ||
160. | Ottawa West–Nepean | CPC likely gain | 96% | ||
161. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely hold | 96% | ||
162. | North Island–Powell River | CPC likely gain | 96% | ||
163. | London North Centre | CPC likely gain | 95% | ||
164. | Edmonton Centre | CPC likely gain | 95% | ||
165. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | CPC likely gain | 95% | ||
166. | Nickel Belt | CPC likely gain | 95% | ||
167. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | CPC likely gain | 95% | ||
168. | Mississauga–Streetsville | CPC likely gain | 94% | ||
169. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | CPC likely gain | 94% | ||
170. | Markham–Stouffville | CPC likely gain | 93% | ||
171. | Waterloo | CPC likely gain | 93% | ||
172. | Don Valley West | CPC likely gain | 93% | ||
173. | Louis-Hébert | CPC likely gain | 92% | ||
174. | Malpeque | CPC likely gain | 92% | ||
175. | Cape Breton–Canso | CPC likely gain | 91% | ||
176. | Willowdale | CPC likely gain | 91% | ||
177. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | CPC likely gain | 91% | ||
178. | Delta | CPC likely gain | 91% | ||
179. | Brampton Centre | CPC leaning gain | 89% | ||
180. | Guelph | CPC leaning gain | 88% | ||
181. | Avalon | CPC leaning gain | 88% | ||
182. | Central Nova | CPC leaning gain | 88% | ||
183. | Courtenay–Alberni | CPC leaning gain | 87% | ||
184. | Windsor–Tecumseh | CPC leaning gain | 87% | ||
185. | Saint John–Rothesay | CPC leaning gain | 87% | ||
186. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | CPC leaning gain | 86% | ||
187. | Steveston–Richmond East | CPC leaning gain | 83% | ||
188. | Mississauga East–Cooksville | CPC leaning gain | 82% | ||
189. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain | 79% | ||
190. | Kings–Hants | CPC leaning gain | 78% | ||
191. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | CPC leaning gain | 77% | ||
192. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain | 76% | ||
193. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | CPC leaning gain | 76% | ||
194. | Orléans | CPC leaning gain | 76% | ||
195. | Milton | CPC leaning gain | 75% | ||
196. | Hamilton Mountain | CPC leaning gain | 72% | ||
197. | Egmont | CPC leaning gain | 72% | ||
198. | North Vancouver | Toss up LPC/CPC | 70% | ||
199. | Charlottetown | Toss up LPC/CPC | 70% | ||
200. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix | Toss up CPC/BQ | 69% | ||
201. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Toss up LPC/CPC | 67% | ||
202. | Vancouver Quadra | Toss up LPC/CPC | 67% | ||
203. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 65% | ||
204. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | Toss up CPC/NDP | 64% | ||
205. | Ottawa South | Toss up LPC/CPC | 63% | ||
206. | Brampton South | Toss up LPC/CPC | 62% | ||
207. | Burnaby North–Seymour | Toss up LPC/CPC | 59% | ||
208. | Jonquière | Toss up CPC/BQ | 55% | ||
209. | Brampton North | Toss up LPC/CPC | 54% | ||
210. | Mississauga–Malton | Toss up LPC/CPC | 54% | ||
211. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 50% | ||
212. | Don Valley North | Toss up LPC/CPC | 49% | ||
213. | Cardigan | Toss up LPC/CPC | 47% | ||
214. | Timmins–James Bay | Toss up CPC/NDP | 46% | ||
215. | Pontiac | Toss up LPC/CPC | 44% | ||
216. | Scarborough–Agincourt | Toss up LPC/CPC | 43% | ||
217. | Winnipeg South | Toss up LPC/CPC | 40% | ||
218. | Edmonton Griesbach | Toss up CPC/NDP | 36% | ||
219. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | Toss up LPC/CPC | 36% | ||
220. | Brampton West | Toss up LPC/CPC | 31% | ||
221. | Brampton East | LPC leaning hold | 28% | ||
222. | Compton–Stanstead | Toss up CPC/BQ | 28% | ||
223. | Vancouver Centre | LPC leaning hold | 27% | ||
224. | Mississauga Centre | LPC leaning hold | 26% | ||
225. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | NDP leaning hold | 19% | ||
226. | Madawaska–Restigouche | LPC leaning hold | 19% | ||
227. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | LPC leaning hold | 18% | ||
228. | Québec | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 18% | ||
229. | Burnaby South | NDP leaning hold | 17% | ||
230. | Saint Boniface–Saint Vital | LPC leaning hold | 16% | ||
231. | Ajax | LPC leaning hold | 13% | ||
232. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 13% | ||
233. | Ottawa–Vanier | LPC leaning hold | 12% | ||
234. | Lac-Saint-Jean | BQ likely hold | 10% | ||
235. | Surrey Centre | LPC likely hold | 7% | ||
236. | Scarborough Centre | LPC likely hold | 7% | ||
237. | Vancouver South | LPC likely hold | 7% | ||
238. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | NDP likely hold | 6% | ||
239. | Etobicoke North | LPC likely hold | 5% | ||
240. | Halifax West | LPC likely hold | 5% | ||
241. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ likely gain | 4% | ||
242. | University–Rosedale | LPC leaning hold | 3% | ||
243. | Spadina–Fort York | NDP leaning gain | 3% | ||
244. | Kitchener Centre | GPC likely hold | 3% | ||
245. | Toronto–Danforth | NDP leaning gain | 3% | ||
246. | Mount Royal | LPC likely hold | 2% | ||
247. | Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou | BQ likely hold | 2% | ||
248. | Winnipeg South Centre | LPC likely hold | 1% | ||
249. | Beauséjour | LPC likely hold | 1% | ||
250. | Don Valley East | LPC likely hold | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Souris–Moose Mountain | CPC safe hold |
2. | Bow River | CPC safe hold |
3. | Fort McMurray–Cold Lake | CPC safe hold |
4. | Battle River–Crowfoot | CPC safe hold |
5. | Cypress Hills–Grasslands | CPC safe hold |
6. | Lakeland | CPC safe hold |
7. | Yorkton–Melville | CPC safe hold |
8. | Grande Prairie–Mackenzie | CPC safe hold |
9. | Red Deer–Lacombe | CPC safe hold |
10. | Yellowhead | CPC safe hold |
11. | Foothills | CPC safe hold |
12. | Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek | CPC safe hold |
13. | Mégantic–L’Érable | CPC safe hold |
14. | Red Deer–Mountain View | CPC safe hold |
15. | Portage–Lisgar | CPC safe hold |
16. | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner | CPC safe hold |
17. | Prince Albert | CPC safe hold |
18. | Battlefords–Lloydminster | CPC safe hold |
19. | Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry | CPC safe hold |
20. | Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies | CPC safe hold |
21. | Sturgeon River–Parkland | CPC safe hold |
22. | Regina–Qu’Appelle | CPC safe hold |
23. | Peace River–Westlock | CPC safe hold |
24. | Calgary Shepard | CPC safe hold |
25. | Calgary Heritage | CPC safe hold |
26. | Huron–Bruce | CPC safe hold |
27. | Calgary Midnapore | CPC safe hold |
28. | Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan | CPC safe hold |
29. | Beauce | CPC safe hold |
30. | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier | CPC safe hold |
31. | Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup | CPC safe hold |
32. | Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis | CPC safe hold |
33. | Lévis–Lotbinière | CPC safe hold |
34. | Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock | CPC safe hold |
35. | Wellington–Halton Hills | CPC safe hold |
36. | Haldimand–Norfolk | CPC safe hold |
37. | Louis-Saint-Laurent | CPC safe hold |
38. | Richmond–Arthabaska | CPC safe hold |
39. | Calgary Signal Hill | CPC safe hold |
40. | Thornhill | CPC safe hold |
41. | Barrie–Innisfil | CPC safe hold |
42. | Perth–Wellington | CPC safe hold |
43. | Carleton | CPC safe hold |
44. | Tobique–Mactaquac | CPC safe hold |
45. | Cariboo–Prince George | CPC safe hold |
46. | Lethbridge | CPC safe hold |
47. | Banff–Airdrie | CPC safe hold |
48. | Calgary Nose Hill | CPC safe hold |
49. | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa | CPC safe hold |
50. | West Nova | CPC safe hold |
51. | Elgin–Middlesex–London | CPC safe hold |
52. | Edmonton–Wetaskiwin | CPC safe hold |
53. | Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan | CPC safe hold |
54. | Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound | CPC safe hold |
55. | York–Simcoe | CPC safe hold |
56. | New Brunswick Southwest | CPC safe hold |
57. | Abbotsford | CPC safe hold |
58. | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke | CPC safe hold |
59. | Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | CPC safe hold |
60. | Langley–Aldergrove | CPC safe hold |
61. | Lambton–Kent–Middlesex | CPC safe hold |
62. | Fundy Royal | CPC safe hold |
63. | Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston | CPC safe hold |
64. | Calgary Rocky Ridge | CPC safe hold |
65. | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola | CPC safe hold |
66. | Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte | CPC safe hold |
67. | North Okanagan–Shuswap | CPC safe hold |
68. | Simcoe–Grey | CPC safe hold |
69. | Hastings–Lennox and Addington | CPC safe hold |
70. | Sarnia–Lambton | CPC safe hold |
71. | Brandon–Souris | CPC safe hold |
72. | Dufferin–Caledon | CPC safe hold |
73. | Kelowna–Lake Country | CPC safe hold |
74. | Chilliwack–Hope | CPC safe hold |
75. | Cumberland–Colchester | CPC safe hold |
76. | Regina–Wascana | CPC safe hold |
77. | Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman | CPC safe hold |
78. | Niagara West | CPC safe hold |
79. | Durham | CPC safe hold |
80. | King–Vaughan | CPC safe hold |
81. | Parry Sound–Muskoka | CPC safe hold |
82. | Northumberland–Peterborough South | CPC safe hold |
83. | South Surrey–White Rock | CPC safe hold |
84. | Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River | CPC safe hold |
85. | Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon | CPC safe hold |
86. | Calgary Centre | CPC safe hold |
87. | Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles | CPC safe hold |
88. | Chatham-Kent–Leamington | CPC safe hold |
89. | Simcoe North | CPC safe hold |
90. | Kootenay–Columbia | CPC safe hold |
91. | Provencher | CPC safe hold |
92. | Oxford | CPC safe hold |
93. | Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo | CPC safe hold |
94. | Bay of Quinte | CPC safe hold |
95. | Brantford–Brant | CPC safe hold |
96. | Flamborough–Glanbrook | CPC safe hold |
97. | Peterborough–Kawartha | CPC safe hold |
98. | Calgary Confederation | CPC safe hold |
99. | Calgary Forest Lawn | CPC safe hold |
100. | South Shore–St. Margarets | CPC safe hold |
101. | Niagara Falls | CPC safe hold |
102. | Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame | CPC safe hold |
103. | Miramichi–Grand Lake | CPC safe hold |
104. | Edmonton West | CPC safe hold |
105. | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley | CPC safe hold |
106. | Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge | CPC safe hold |
107. | Edmonton Riverbend | CPC safe hold |
108. | Edmonton Mill Woods | CPC safe hold |
109. | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord | CPC safe hold |
110. | Kitchener South–Hespeler | CPC safe gain |
111. | Kitchener–Conestoga | CPC safe gain |
112. | Sault Ste. Marie | CPC safe gain |
113. | Oshawa | CPC safe hold |
114. | Cambridge | CPC safe gain |
115. | St. Albert–Edmonton | CPC safe hold |
116. | St. Catharines | CPC safe gain |
117. | Kanata–Carleton | CPC safe gain |
118. | Essex | CPC safe hold |
119. | Kenora | CPC safe hold |
120. | Kildonan–St. Paul | CPC safe hold |
121. | Markham–Unionville | CPC safe gain |
122. | Niagara Centre | CPC safe gain |
123. | Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill | CPC safe gain |
124. | Newmarket–Aurora | CPC safe gain |
125. | London West | CPC safe gain |
126. | Vaughan–Woodbridge | CPC safe gain |
127. | Nipissing–Timiskaming | CPC safe gain |
128. | Saskatoon–Grasswood | CPC safe hold |
129. | Oakville | CPC safe gain |
130. | Fredericton | CPC safe gain |
131. | Sydney–Victoria | CPC safe gain |
132. | Bonavista–Burin–Trinity | CPC safe gain |
133. | Long Range Mountains | CPC safe gain |
134. | Glengarry–Prescott–Russell | CPC likely gain |
135. | Cloverdale–Langley City | CPC likely gain |
136. | Burlington | CPC likely gain |
137. | Oakville North–Burlington | CPC likely gain |
138. | Richmond Hill | CPC likely gain |
139. | Whitby | CPC likely gain |
140. | South Okanagan–West Kootenay | CPC likely gain |
141. | Richmond Centre | CPC likely gain |
142. | York Centre | CPC likely gain |
143. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | CPC likely gain |
144. | Edmonton Manning | CPC likely hold |
145. | Pickering–Uxbridge | CPC likely gain |
146. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | CPC likely gain |
147. | Saskatoon–University | CPC likely hold |
148. | Regina–Lewvan | CPC likely hold |
149. | Nanaimo–Ladysmith | CPC likely gain |
150. | Calgary Skyview | CPC likely gain |
151. | Nepean | CPC likely gain |
152. | Eglinton–Lawrence | CPC likely gain |
153. | Etobicoke Centre | CPC likely gain |
154. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | CPC likely gain |
155. | Trois-Rivières | CPC likely gain |
156. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | CPC likely gain |
157. | Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas | CPC likely gain |
158. | Sudbury | CPC likely gain |
159. | Beauport–Limoilou | CPC likely gain |
160. | Ottawa West–Nepean | CPC likely gain |
161. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely hold |
162. | North Island–Powell River | CPC likely gain |
163. | London North Centre | CPC likely gain |
164. | Edmonton Centre | CPC likely gain |
165. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | CPC likely gain |
166. | Nickel Belt | CPC likely gain |
167. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | CPC likely gain |
168. | Mississauga–Streetsville | CPC likely gain |
169. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | CPC likely gain |
170. | Markham–Stouffville | CPC likely gain |
171. | Waterloo | CPC likely gain |
172. | Don Valley West | CPC likely gain |
173. | Louis-Hébert | CPC likely gain |
174. | Malpeque | CPC likely gain |
175. | Cape Breton–Canso | CPC likely gain |
176. | Willowdale | CPC likely gain |
177. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | CPC likely gain |
178. | Delta | CPC likely gain |
179. | Brampton Centre | CPC leaning gain |
180. | Guelph | CPC leaning gain |
181. | Avalon | CPC leaning gain |
182. | Central Nova | CPC leaning gain |
183. | Courtenay–Alberni | CPC leaning gain |
184. | Windsor–Tecumseh | CPC leaning gain |
185. | Saint John–Rothesay | CPC leaning gain |
186. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | CPC leaning gain |
187. | Steveston–Richmond East | CPC leaning gain |
188. | Mississauga East–Cooksville | CPC leaning gain |
189. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain |
190. | Kings–Hants | CPC leaning gain |
191. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | CPC leaning gain |
192. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain |
193. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | CPC leaning gain |
194. | Orléans | CPC leaning gain |
195. | Milton | CPC leaning gain |
196. | Hamilton Mountain | CPC leaning gain |
197. | Egmont | CPC leaning gain |
198. | North Vancouver | Toss up LPC/CPC |
199. | Charlottetown | Toss up LPC/CPC |
200. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix | Toss up CPC/BQ |
201. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Toss up LPC/CPC |
202. | Vancouver Quadra | Toss up LPC/CPC |
203. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
204. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | Toss up CPC/NDP |
205. | Ottawa South | Toss up LPC/CPC |
206. | Brampton South | Toss up LPC/CPC |
207. | Burnaby North–Seymour | Toss up LPC/CPC |
208. | Jonquière | Toss up CPC/BQ |
209. | Brampton North | Toss up LPC/CPC |
210. | Mississauga–Malton | Toss up LPC/CPC |
211. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
212. | Don Valley North | Toss up LPC/CPC |
213. | Cardigan | Toss up LPC/CPC |
214. | Timmins–James Bay | Toss up CPC/NDP |
215. | Pontiac | Toss up LPC/CPC |
216. | Scarborough–Agincourt | Toss up LPC/CPC |
217. | Winnipeg South | Toss up LPC/CPC |
218. | Edmonton Griesbach | Toss up CPC/NDP |
219. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | Toss up LPC/CPC |
220. | Brampton West | Toss up LPC/CPC |
221. | Brampton East | LPC leaning hold |
222. | Compton–Stanstead | Toss up CPC/BQ |
223. | Vancouver Centre | LPC leaning hold |
224. | Mississauga Centre | LPC leaning hold |
225. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | NDP leaning hold |
226. | Madawaska–Restigouche | LPC leaning hold |
227. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | LPC leaning hold |
228. | Québec | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ |
229. | Burnaby South | NDP leaning hold |
230. | Saint Boniface–Saint Vital | LPC leaning hold |
231. | Ajax | LPC leaning hold |
232. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ |
233. | Ottawa–Vanier | LPC leaning hold |
234. | Lac-Saint-Jean | BQ likely hold |
235. | Surrey Centre | LPC likely hold |
236. | Scarborough Centre | LPC likely hold |
237. | Vancouver South | LPC likely hold |
238. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | NDP likely hold |
239. | Etobicoke North | LPC likely hold |
240. | Halifax West | LPC likely hold |
241. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ likely gain |
242. | University–Rosedale | LPC leaning hold |
243. | Spadina–Fort York | NDP leaning gain |
244. | Kitchener Centre | GPC likely hold |
245. | Toronto–Danforth | NDP leaning gain |
246. | Mount Royal | LPC likely hold |
247. | Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou | BQ likely hold |
248. | Winnipeg South Centre | LPC likely hold |
249. | Beauséjour | LPC likely hold |
250. | Don Valley East | LPC likely hold |