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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: March 17, 2024

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection42.1% ± 3.9%
Current number of MP's118
Current seat projection211 [182-232]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% Majority: 170 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada ©2023 6.3 seat/% 211 [182-232] 42% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × CPC 211 [182-232] March 17, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 3/4 NS 8/11 NB 6/10 QC 15/78 ON 89/121 MB 7/14 SK 14/14 AB 32/34 BC 31/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 33.7% Min. 38.2% 42.1% ± 3.9% Max. 46.0% Probabilities % CPC

Seat projection | March 17, 2024

151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Majority 170 seats Min. 182 211 Max. 232 Probabilities % CPC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold >99%
2. Bow River CPC safe hold >99%
3. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold >99%
4. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold >99%
5. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold >99%
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold >99%
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold >99%
9. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold >99%
10. Yellowhead CPC safe hold >99%
11. Foothills CPC safe hold >99%
12. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold >99%
13. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold >99%
14. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold >99%
15. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold >99%
16. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold >99%
17. Prince Albert CPC safe hold >99%
18. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold >99%
19. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold >99%
20. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold >99%
21. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold >99%
22. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold >99%
23. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold >99%
24. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold >99%
25. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold >99%
26. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold >99%
27. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold >99%
28. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold >99%
29. Beauce CPC safe hold >99%
30. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold >99%
31. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold >99%
32. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold >99%
33. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold >99%
34. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold >99%
35. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold >99%
36. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold >99%
37. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold >99%
38. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold >99%
39. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold >99%
40. Thornhill CPC safe hold >99%
41. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold >99%
42. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold >99%
43. Carleton CPC safe hold >99%
44. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold >99%
45. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold >99%
46. Lethbridge CPC safe hold >99%
47. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold >99%
48. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold >99%
49. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold >99%
50. West Nova CPC safe hold >99%
51. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold >99%
52. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold >99%
53. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold >99%
54. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold >99%
55. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold >99%
56. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold >99%
57. Abbotsford CPC safe hold >99%
58. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold >99%
59. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold >99%
60. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold >99%
61. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold >99%
62. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold >99%
63. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold >99%
64. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
65. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold >99%
66. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold >99%
67. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold >99%
68. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold >99%
69. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold >99%
70. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold >99%
71. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold >99%
72. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold >99%
73. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold >99%
74. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold >99%
75. Cumberland–Colchester CPC safe hold >99%
76. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold >99%
77. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold >99%
78. Niagara West CPC safe hold >99%
79. Durham CPC safe hold >99%
80. King–Vaughan CPC safe hold >99%
81. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold >99%
82. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold >99%
83. South Surrey–White Rock CPC safe hold >99%
84. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold >99%
85. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold >99%
86. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold >99%
87. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold >99%
88. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold >99%
89. Simcoe North CPC safe hold >99%
90. Kootenay–Columbia CPC safe hold >99%
91. Provencher CPC safe hold >99%
92. Oxford CPC safe hold >99%
93. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold >99%
94. Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold >99%
95. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold >99%
96. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC safe hold >99%
97. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC safe hold >99%
98. Calgary Confederation CPC safe hold >99%
99. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC safe hold >99%
100. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC safe hold >99%
101. Niagara Falls CPC safe hold >99%
102. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC safe hold >99%
103. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC safe hold >99%
104. Edmonton West CPC safe hold >99%
105. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC safe hold >99%
106. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
107. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold >99%
108. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC safe hold >99%
109. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC safe hold >99%
110. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC safe gain >99%
111. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC safe gain >99%
112. Sault Ste. Marie CPC safe gain >99%
113. Oshawa CPC safe hold >99%
114. Cambridge CPC safe gain >99%
115. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe hold >99%
116. St. Catharines CPC safe gain >99%
117. Kanata–Carleton CPC safe gain >99%
118. Essex CPC safe hold >99%
119. Kenora CPC safe hold >99%
120. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC safe hold >99%
121. Markham–Unionville CPC safe gain >99%
122. Niagara Centre CPC safe gain >99%
123. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC safe gain >99%
124. Newmarket–Aurora CPC safe gain >99%
125. London West CPC safe gain >99%
126. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC safe gain >99%
127. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC safe gain >99%
128. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC safe hold >99%
129. Oakville CPC safe gain >99%
130. Fredericton CPC safe gain >99%
131. Sydney–Victoria CPC safe gain >99%
132. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity CPC safe gain >99%
133. Long Range Mountains CPC safe gain >99%
134. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC likely gain 99%
135. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC likely gain 99%
136. Burlington CPC likely gain 99%
137. Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain 99%
138. Richmond Hill CPC likely gain 99%
139. Whitby CPC likely gain 99%
140. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC likely gain 99%
141. Richmond Centre CPC likely gain 99%
142. York Centre CPC likely gain 99%
143. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain 99%
144. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold 98%
145. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain 98%
146. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain 98%
147. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 98%
148. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold 98%
149. Nanaimo–Ladysmith CPC likely gain 98%
150. Calgary Skyview CPC likely gain 98%
151. Nepean CPC likely gain 98%
152. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain 98%
153. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain 98%
154. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain 97%
155. Trois-Rivières CPC likely gain 97%
156. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC likely gain 97%
157. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain 97%
158. Sudbury CPC likely gain 97%
159. Beauport–Limoilou CPC likely gain 97%
160. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain 96%
161. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold 96%
162. North Island–Powell River CPC likely gain 96%
163. London North Centre CPC likely gain 95%
164. Edmonton Centre CPC likely gain 95%
165. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain 95%
166. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain 95%
167. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain 95%
168. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain 94%
169. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC likely gain 94%
170. Markham–Stouffville CPC likely gain 93%
171. Waterloo CPC likely gain 93%
172. Don Valley West CPC likely gain 93%
173. Louis-Hébert CPC likely gain 92%
174. Malpeque CPC likely gain 92%
175. Cape Breton–Canso CPC likely gain 91%
176. Willowdale CPC likely gain 91%
177. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain 91%
178. Delta CPC likely gain 91%
179. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain 89%
180. Guelph CPC leaning gain 88%
181. Avalon CPC leaning gain 88%
182. Central Nova CPC leaning gain 88%
183. Courtenay–Alberni CPC leaning gain 87%
184. Windsor–Tecumseh CPC leaning gain 87%
185. Saint John–Rothesay CPC leaning gain 87%
186. Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain 86%
187. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain 83%
188. Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain 82%
189. Labrador CPC leaning gain 79%
190. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain 78%
191. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain 77%
192. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain 76%
193. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain 76%
194. Orléans CPC leaning gain 76%
195. Milton CPC leaning gain 75%
196. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain 72%
197. Egmont CPC leaning gain 72%
198. North Vancouver Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
199. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC 70%
200. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 69%
201. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
202. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
203. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 65%
204. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 64%
205. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
206. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
207. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC 59%
208. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ 55%
209. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
210. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
211. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 50%
212. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
213. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
214. Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP 46%
215. Pontiac Toss up LPC/CPC 44%
216. Scarborough–Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
217. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
218. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 36%
219. Toronto–St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
220. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
221. Brampton East LPC leaning hold 28%
222. Compton–Stanstead Toss up CPC/BQ 28%
223. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold 27%
224. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold 26%
225. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold 19%
226. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold 19%
227. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold 18%
228. Québec Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 18%
229. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold 17%
230. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold 16%
231. Ajax LPC leaning hold 13%
232. Saint-Maurice–Champlain Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 13%
233. Ottawa–Vanier LPC leaning hold 12%
234. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely hold 10%
235. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold 7%
236. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold 7%
237. Vancouver South LPC likely hold 7%
238. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold 6%
239. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold 5%
240. Halifax West LPC likely hold 5%
241. Brome–Missisquoi BQ likely gain 4%
242. University–Rosedale LPC leaning hold 3%
243. Spadina–Fort York NDP leaning gain 3%
244. Kitchener Centre GPC likely hold 3%
245. Toronto–Danforth NDP leaning gain 3%
246. Mount Royal LPC likely hold 2%
247. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold 2%
248. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely hold 1%
249. Beauséjour LPC likely hold 1%
250. Don Valley East LPC likely hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold
2. Bow River CPC safe hold
3. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold
4. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold
5. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold
9. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold
10. Yellowhead CPC safe hold
11. Foothills CPC safe hold
12. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold
13. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold
14. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold
15. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold
16. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold
17. Prince Albert CPC safe hold
18. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold
19. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
20. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold
21. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold
22. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold
23. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold
24. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold
25. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold
26. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
27. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold
28. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold
29. Beauce CPC safe hold
30. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold
31. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold
32. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold
33. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold
34. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
35. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
36. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
37. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold
38. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold
39. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold
40. Thornhill CPC safe hold
41. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
42. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
43. Carleton CPC safe hold
44. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold
45. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold
46. Lethbridge CPC safe hold
47. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold
48. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold
49. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold
50. West Nova CPC safe hold
51. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
52. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold
53. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold
54. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
55. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
56. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold
57. Abbotsford CPC safe hold
58. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
59. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
60. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold
61. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
62. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold
63. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
64. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold
65. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold
66. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
67. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold
68. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
69. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold
70. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
71. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold
72. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
73. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold
74. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold
75. Cumberland–Colchester CPC safe hold
76. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold
77. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold
78. Niagara West CPC safe hold
79. Durham CPC safe hold
80. King–Vaughan CPC safe hold
81. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
82. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
83. South Surrey–White Rock CPC safe hold
84. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold
85. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold
86. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold
87. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold
88. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
89. Simcoe North CPC safe hold
90. Kootenay–Columbia CPC safe hold
91. Provencher CPC safe hold
92. Oxford CPC safe hold
93. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold
94. Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold
95. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
96. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC safe hold
97. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC safe hold
98. Calgary Confederation CPC safe hold
99. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC safe hold
100. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC safe hold
101. Niagara Falls CPC safe hold
102. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC safe hold
103. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC safe hold
104. Edmonton West CPC safe hold
105. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC safe hold
106. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC safe hold
107. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold
108. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC safe hold
109. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC safe hold
110. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC safe gain
111. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC safe gain
112. Sault Ste. Marie CPC safe gain
113. Oshawa CPC safe hold
114. Cambridge CPC safe gain
115. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe hold
116. St. Catharines CPC safe gain
117. Kanata–Carleton CPC safe gain
118. Essex CPC safe hold
119. Kenora CPC safe hold
120. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC safe hold
121. Markham–Unionville CPC safe gain
122. Niagara Centre CPC safe gain
123. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC safe gain
124. Newmarket–Aurora CPC safe gain
125. London West CPC safe gain
126. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC safe gain
127. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC safe gain
128. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC safe hold
129. Oakville CPC safe gain
130. Fredericton CPC safe gain
131. Sydney–Victoria CPC safe gain
132. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity CPC safe gain
133. Long Range Mountains CPC safe gain
134. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC likely gain
135. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC likely gain
136. Burlington CPC likely gain
137. Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain
138. Richmond Hill CPC likely gain
139. Whitby CPC likely gain
140. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC likely gain
141. Richmond Centre CPC likely gain
142. York Centre CPC likely gain
143. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain
144. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold
145. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain
146. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain
147. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
148. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold
149. Nanaimo–Ladysmith CPC likely gain
150. Calgary Skyview CPC likely gain
151. Nepean CPC likely gain
152. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain
153. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain
154. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain
155. Trois-Rivières CPC likely gain
156. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC likely gain
157. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain
158. Sudbury CPC likely gain
159. Beauport–Limoilou CPC likely gain
160. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain
161. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold
162. North Island–Powell River CPC likely gain
163. London North Centre CPC likely gain
164. Edmonton Centre CPC likely gain
165. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain
166. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain
167. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
168. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain
169. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
170. Markham–Stouffville CPC likely gain
171. Waterloo CPC likely gain
172. Don Valley West CPC likely gain
173. Louis-Hébert CPC likely gain
174. Malpeque CPC likely gain
175. Cape Breton–Canso CPC likely gain
176. Willowdale CPC likely gain
177. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain
178. Delta CPC likely gain
179. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain
180. Guelph CPC leaning gain
181. Avalon CPC leaning gain
182. Central Nova CPC leaning gain
183. Courtenay–Alberni CPC leaning gain
184. Windsor–Tecumseh CPC leaning gain
185. Saint John–Rothesay CPC leaning gain
186. Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain
187. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain
188. Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain
189. Labrador CPC leaning gain
190. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain
191. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain
192. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain
193. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain
194. Orléans CPC leaning gain
195. Milton CPC leaning gain
196. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain
197. Egmont CPC leaning gain
198. North Vancouver Toss up LPC/CPC
199. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
200. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
201. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC
202. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC
203. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
204. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP
205. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
206. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
207. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC
208. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ
209. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC
210. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
211. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
212. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC
213. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
214. Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP
215. Pontiac Toss up LPC/CPC
216. Scarborough–Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC
217. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC
218. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP
219. Toronto–St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
220. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC
221. Brampton East LPC leaning hold
222. Compton–Stanstead Toss up CPC/BQ
223. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold
224. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold
225. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold
226. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold
227. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold
228. Québec Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
229. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold
230. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold
231. Ajax LPC leaning hold
232. Saint-Maurice–Champlain Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
233. Ottawa–Vanier LPC leaning hold
234. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely hold
235. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold
236. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold
237. Vancouver South LPC likely hold
238. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold
239. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold
240. Halifax West LPC likely hold
241. Brome–Missisquoi BQ likely gain
242. University–Rosedale LPC leaning hold
243. Spadina–Fort York NDP leaning gain
244. Kitchener Centre GPC likely hold
245. Toronto–Danforth NDP leaning gain
246. Mount Royal LPC likely hold
247. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold
248. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely hold
249. Beauséjour LPC likely hold
250. Don Valley East LPC likely hold