Bloc Québécois
Latest update: March 17, 2024
Leader | Yves-François Blanchet |
National popular vote in 2021 | 7.6% (QC: 32.1%) |
Current vote projection | 7.2% ± 0.7% (QC: 30.6% ± 3.7%) |
Current number of MP's | 32 |
Current seat projection | 36 [30-41] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
Seat projection | March 17, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
2. | Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
3. | Joliette | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
4. | Repentigny | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
5. | Beloeil–Chambly | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
6. | Rivière-du-Nord | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
7. | Montcalm | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
8. | Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
9. | Abitibi–Témiscamingue | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
10. | Laurentides–Labelle | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
11. | Salaberry–Suroît | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
12. | Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
13. | Saint-Jean | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
14. | Mirabel | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
15. | Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
16. | Terrebonne | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
17. | Shefford | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
18. | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
19. | Montarville | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
20. | La Prairie | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
21. | Thérèse-De Blainville | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
22. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
23. | Berthier–Maskinongé | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
24. | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
25. | Drummond | BQ safe hold | >99% | ||
26. | Manicouagan | BQ likely hold | 99% | ||
27. | Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou | BQ likely hold | 98% | ||
28. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | BQ likely gain | 94% | ||
29. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ likely gain | 92% | ||
30. | Lac-Saint-Jean | BQ likely hold | 90% | ||
31. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | BQ leaning gain | 86% | ||
32. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | BQ leaning gain | 75% | ||
33. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Toss up LPC/BQ | 70% | ||
34. | Compton–Stanstead | Toss up CPC/BQ | 64% | ||
35. | Sherbrooke | Toss up LPC/BQ | 57% | ||
36. | Québec | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 52% | ||
37. | Jonquière | Toss up CPC/BQ | 45% | ||
38. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix | Toss up CPC/BQ | 31% | ||
39. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ | 28% | ||
40. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | LPC leaning hold | 26% | ||
41. | Hochelaga | Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ | 19% | ||
42. | Beauport–Limoilou | CPC likely gain | 3% | ||
43. | Trois-Rivières | CPC likely gain | 3% | ||
44. | Louis-Hébert | CPC likely gain | 3% | ||
45. | Alfred-Pellan | LPC likely hold | 2% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia | BQ safe hold |
2. | Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères | BQ safe hold |
3. | Joliette | BQ safe hold |
4. | Repentigny | BQ safe hold |
5. | Beloeil–Chambly | BQ safe hold |
6. | Rivière-du-Nord | BQ safe hold |
7. | Montcalm | BQ safe hold |
8. | Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques | BQ safe hold |
9. | Abitibi–Témiscamingue | BQ safe hold |
10. | Laurentides–Labelle | BQ safe hold |
11. | Salaberry–Suroît | BQ safe hold |
12. | Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot | BQ safe hold |
13. | Saint-Jean | BQ safe hold |
14. | Mirabel | BQ safe hold |
15. | Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel | BQ safe hold |
16. | Terrebonne | BQ safe hold |
17. | Shefford | BQ safe hold |
18. | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | BQ safe hold |
19. | Montarville | BQ safe hold |
20. | La Prairie | BQ safe hold |
21. | Thérèse-De Blainville | BQ safe hold |
22. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | BQ safe hold |
23. | Berthier–Maskinongé | BQ safe hold |
24. | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert | BQ safe hold |
25. | Drummond | BQ safe hold |
26. | Manicouagan | BQ likely hold |
27. | Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou | BQ likely hold |
28. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | BQ likely gain |
29. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ likely gain |
30. | Lac-Saint-Jean | BQ likely hold |
31. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | BQ leaning gain |
32. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | BQ leaning gain |
33. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Toss up LPC/BQ |
34. | Compton–Stanstead | Toss up CPC/BQ |
35. | Sherbrooke | Toss up LPC/BQ |
36. | Québec | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ |
37. | Jonquière | Toss up CPC/BQ |
38. | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix | Toss up CPC/BQ |
39. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ |
40. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | LPC leaning hold |
41. | Hochelaga | Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ |
42. | Beauport–Limoilou | CPC likely gain |
43. | Trois-Rivières | CPC likely gain |
44. | Louis-Hébert | CPC likely gain |
45. | Alfred-Pellan | LPC likely hold |