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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Federal Projection


Latest update: April 21, 2024

Popular vote projection 41% ± 4%▼ 25% ± 3% 17% ± 3%▼ 8% ± 1% 4% ± 2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 172 seats for a majority 207▲ [176-231] 74▲ [51-102] 40▲ [33-45] 20 [13-33] 2 [1-3] 0 338Canada seat projection | April 21, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 21, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% 338Canada Odds of outcome 98%▼ CPC maj. 2%▲ CPC min. <1% LPC min. <1% LPC maj. Odds of outcome | April 21, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Projection of potential coalitions


CPC 207 LPC+BQ 114 L+N+G 96 LPC+NDP 94 LPC+GPC 76 LPC 74 338Canada | April 21, 2024Seat projections of potential coalitions* 172 seats
Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
50% 100% 98% CPC 2% CPC+BQ 2% CPC+NDP <1% LPC+BQ <1% LPC+GPC <1% L+N+G <1% LPC+NDP <1% LPC 338Canada | April 21, 2024Odds of reaching 172 seats
These are the probabilities of reaching 172 seats in a coalition by necessity. For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.


338Canada popular vote projection

LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC LPC 25% ± 3% CPC 41% ± 4% NDP 17% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 2% BQ 8% ± 1% PPC 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01

338Canada seat projection

LPC 74 [51-102] CPC 207 [176-231] NDP 20 [13-33] GPC 2 [1-3] BQ 40 [33-45] Seat projection 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ Majority: 172 seats

338Canada odds of winning the most seats

LPC <1% CPC >99% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC Tie

338Canada odds of election outcome

CPC majority 98% CPC minority 2% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC majority LPC minority CPC majority CPC minority