New Democratic Party
Latest update: March 17, 2024
Leader | Jagmeet Singh |
National popular vote in 2021 | 17.8% |
Current vote projection | 18.9% ± 3.0% |
Current number of MP's | 25 |
Current seat projection | 25 [15-38] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
Seat projection | March 17, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Winnipeg Centre | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
2. | Elmwood–Transcona | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
3. | Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
4. | Vancouver East | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
5. | Hamilton Centre | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
6. | Churchill–Keewatinook Aski | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
7. | Edmonton Strathcona | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
8. | Vancouver Kingsway | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
9. | Victoria | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
10. | Windsor West | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
11. | Nunavut | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
12. | New Westminster–Burnaby | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
13. | London–Fanshawe | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
14. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | NDP likely hold | 94% | ||
15. | Davenport | NDP leaning gain | 88% | ||
16. | Parkdale–High Park | NDP leaning gain | 85% | ||
17. | Burnaby South | NDP leaning hold | 83% | ||
18. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | NDP leaning hold | 81% | ||
19. | Toronto–Danforth | NDP leaning gain | 77% | ||
20. | Spadina–Fort York | NDP leaning gain | 72% | ||
21. | Northwest Territories | NDP leaning gain | 71% | ||
22. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | Toss up LPC/NDP | 65% | ||
23. | Edmonton Griesbach | Toss up CPC/NDP | 64% | ||
24. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP | 56% | ||
25. | Timmins–James Bay | Toss up CPC/NDP | 54% | ||
26. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP | 50% | ||
27. | St. John’s East | Toss up LPC/NDP | 48% | ||
28. | Outremont | Toss up LPC/NDP | 42% | ||
29. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 37% | ||
30. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | Toss up CPC/NDP | 36% | ||
31. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | LPC leaning hold | 29% | ||
32. | Hamilton Mountain | CPC leaning gain | 28% | ||
33. | Hochelaga | Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ | 23% | ||
34. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 21% | ||
35. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | CPC leaning gain | 19% | ||
36. | Winnipeg North | LPC leaning hold | 13% | ||
37. | Windsor–Tecumseh | CPC leaning gain | 13% | ||
38. | Courtenay–Alberni | CPC leaning gain | 13% | ||
39. | University–Rosedale | LPC leaning hold | 11% | ||
40. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain | 11% | ||
41. | Toronto Centre | LPC likely hold | 10% | ||
42. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Toss up LPC/CPC | 7% | ||
43. | Ottawa–Vanier | LPC leaning hold | 7% | ||
44. | Nickel Belt | CPC likely gain | 5% | ||
45. | North Island–Powell River | CPC likely gain | 4% | ||
46. | Edmonton Centre | CPC likely gain | 4% | ||
47. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | LPC likely hold | 4% | ||
48. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely hold | 4% | ||
49. | Papineau | LPC likely hold | 4% | ||
50. | Saint Boniface–Saint Vital | LPC leaning hold | 4% | ||
51. | Vancouver Centre | LPC leaning hold | 3% | ||
52. | London North Centre | CPC likely gain | 3% | ||
53. | Sudbury | CPC likely gain | 3% | ||
54. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain | 3% | ||
55. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | CPC likely gain | 3% | ||
56. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
57. | Regina–Lewvan | CPC likely hold | 2% | ||
58. | Saskatoon–University | CPC likely hold | 2% | ||
59. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | CPC likely gain | 2% | ||
60. | Edmonton Manning | CPC likely hold | 2% | ||
61. | Guelph | CPC leaning gain | 1% | ||
62. | Halifax West | LPC likely hold | 1% | ||
63. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | CPC likely gain | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Winnipeg Centre | NDP safe hold |
2. | Elmwood–Transcona | NDP safe hold |
3. | Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | NDP safe hold |
4. | Vancouver East | NDP safe hold |
5. | Hamilton Centre | NDP safe hold |
6. | Churchill–Keewatinook Aski | NDP safe hold |
7. | Edmonton Strathcona | NDP safe hold |
8. | Vancouver Kingsway | NDP safe hold |
9. | Victoria | NDP safe hold |
10. | Windsor West | NDP safe hold |
11. | Nunavut | NDP safe hold |
12. | New Westminster–Burnaby | NDP safe hold |
13. | London–Fanshawe | NDP safe hold |
14. | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke | NDP likely hold |
15. | Davenport | NDP leaning gain |
16. | Parkdale–High Park | NDP leaning gain |
17. | Burnaby South | NDP leaning hold |
18. | Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing | NDP leaning hold |
19. | Toronto–Danforth | NDP leaning gain |
20. | Spadina–Fort York | NDP leaning gain |
21. | Northwest Territories | NDP leaning gain |
22. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | Toss up LPC/NDP |
23. | Edmonton Griesbach | Toss up CPC/NDP |
24. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP |
25. | Timmins–James Bay | Toss up CPC/NDP |
26. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP |
27. | St. John’s East | Toss up LPC/NDP |
28. | Outremont | Toss up LPC/NDP |
29. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
30. | Cowichan–Malahat–Langford | Toss up CPC/NDP |
31. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | LPC leaning hold |
32. | Hamilton Mountain | CPC leaning gain |
33. | Hochelaga | Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ |
34. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
35. | Thunder Bay–Superior North | CPC leaning gain |
36. | Winnipeg North | LPC leaning hold |
37. | Windsor–Tecumseh | CPC leaning gain |
38. | Courtenay–Alberni | CPC leaning gain |
39. | University–Rosedale | LPC leaning hold |
40. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain |
41. | Toronto Centre | LPC likely hold |
42. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Toss up LPC/CPC |
43. | Ottawa–Vanier | LPC leaning hold |
44. | Nickel Belt | CPC likely gain |
45. | North Island–Powell River | CPC likely gain |
46. | Edmonton Centre | CPC likely gain |
47. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | LPC likely hold |
48. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely hold |
49. | Papineau | LPC likely hold |
50. | Saint Boniface–Saint Vital | LPC leaning hold |
51. | Vancouver Centre | LPC leaning hold |
52. | London North Centre | CPC likely gain |
53. | Sudbury | CPC likely gain |
54. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain |
55. | Thunder Bay–Rainy River | CPC likely gain |
56. | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | CPC likely gain |
57. | Regina–Lewvan | CPC likely hold |
58. | Saskatoon–University | CPC likely hold |
59. | Port Moody–Coquitlam | CPC likely gain |
60. | Edmonton Manning | CPC likely hold |
61. | Guelph | CPC leaning gain |
62. | Halifax West | LPC likely hold |
63. | Skeena–Bulkley Valley | CPC likely gain |