338Canada.com - Conservative Party of Canada






338Canada Projection for the Conservative Party of Canada

Latest update: July 14th 2019



Regional Popular Vote Projection







Regional Seat Projection







National Seat Projection






Ordered list of districts

(Percentages indicate the odds of winning the districts according to the 338Canada Projection of July 14th 2019.)

#1 48002 Battle River–Crowfoot Safe CPC>99%
#2 48003 Bow River Safe CPC>99%
#3 48022 Foothills Safe CPC>99%
#4 48029 Red Deer–Mountain View Safe CPC>99%
#5 48033 Sturgeon River–Parkland Safe CPC>99%
#6 48025 Lakeland Safe CPC>99%
#7 48024 Grande Prairie–Mackenzie Safe CPC>99%
#8 48034 Yellowhead Safe CPC>99%
#9 48030 Red Deer–Lacombe Safe CPC>99%
#10 48008 Calgary Midnapore Safe CPC>99%
#11 48028 Peace River–Westlock Safe CPC>99%
#12 47013 Souris–Moose Mountain Safe CPC>99%
#13 47002 Cypress Hills–Grasslands Safe CPC>99%
#14 47001 Battlefords–Lloydminster Safe CPC>99%
#15 48021 Edmonton–Wetaskiwin Safe CPC>99%
#16 48032 Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan Safe CPC>99%
#17 48007 Calgary Heritage Safe CPC>99%
#18 48027 Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner Safe CPC>99%
#19 48011 Calgary Shepard Safe CPC>99%
#20 47004 Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek Safe CPC>99%
#21 48001 Banff–Airdrie Safe CPC>99%
#22 48009 Calgary Nose Hill Safe CPC>99%
#23 48026 Lethbridge Safe CPC>99%
#24 48023 Fort McMurray–Cold Lake Safe CPC>99%
#25 47014 Yorkton–Melville Safe CPC>99%
#26 46007 Portage–Lisgar Safe CPC>99%
#27 24010 Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis Safe CPC>99%
#28 24045 Louis-Saint-Laurent Safe CPC>99%
#29 48012 Calgary Signal Hill Safe CPC>99%
#30 24042 Lévis–Lotbinière Safe CPC>99%
#31 48016 Edmonton Manning Safe CPC>99%
#32 48010 Calgary Rocky Ridge Safe CPC>99%
#33 24019 Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles Safe CPC>99%
#34 24058 Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier Safe CPC>99%
#35 48018 Edmonton Riverbend Safe CPC>99%
#36 47005 Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan Safe CPC>99%
#37 47006 Prince Albert Safe CPC>99%
#38 59024 Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies Safe CPC>99%
#39 46004 Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa Safe CPC>99%
#40 24047 Mégantic–L'Érable Safe CPC>99%
#41 24061 Richmond–Arthabaska Safe CPC>99%
#42 47008 Regina–Qu'Appelle Safe CPC>99%
#43 46010 Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman Safe CPC>99%
#44 48031 St. Albert–Edmonton Safe CPC>99%
#45 47010 Saskatoon–Grasswood Safe CPC>99%
#46 48020 Edmonton West Safe CPC>99%
#47 47011 Saskatoon–University Safe CPC>99%
#48 59001 Abbotsford Safe CPC>99%
#49 35048 Lambton–Kent–Middlesex Safe CPC>99%
#50 46001 Brandon–Souris Safe CPC>99%
#51 48006 Calgary Forest Lawn Safe CPC>99%
#52 46008 Provencher Safe CPC>99%
#53 35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London Safe CPC>99%
#54 24020 Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix Safe CPC>99%
#55 24022 Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Safe CPC>99%
#56 59020 North Okanagan–Shuswap Safe CPC>99%
#57 48015 Edmonton Griesbach Safe CPC>99%
#58 24008 Beauport–Limoilou Safe CPC>99%
#59 48005 Calgary Confederation Safe CPC>99%
#60 35068 Niagara West Likely CPC>99%
#61 48014 Edmonton Centre Likely CPC>99%
#62 35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock Likely CPC>99%
#63 35049 Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston Likely CPC>99%
#64 35080 Oxford Likely CPC>99%
#65 35113 Wellington–Halton Hills Likely CPC>99%
#66 59016 Langley–Aldergrove Likely CPC>99%
#67 13008 New Brunswick Southwest Likely CPC>99%
#68 59006 Chilliwack–Hope Likely CPC>99%
#69 48017 Edmonton Mill Woods Likely CPC>99%
#70 48004 Calgary Centre Likely CPC>99%
#71 35023 Durham Likely CPC>99%
#72 46006 Kildonan–St. Paul Likely CPC>99%
#73 13004 Fundy Royal Likely CPC>99%
#74 24035 Lac-Saint-Jean Likely CPC>99%
#75 35013 Brantford–Brant Likely CPC>99%
#76 13006 Miramichi–Grand Lake Likely CPC>99%
#77 35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke Likely CPC>99%
#78 59004 Cariboo–Prince George Likely CPC>99%
#79 35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes Likely CPC>99%
#80 48013 Calgary Skyview Likely CPC>99%
#81 46005 Elmwood–Transcona Likely CPC>99%
#82 47007 Regina–Lewvan Likely CPC>99%
#83 24051 Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup Likely CPC99%
#84 35091 Sarnia–Lambton Likely CPC99%
#85 59013 Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Likely CPC99%
#86 35067 Niagara Falls Likely CPC99%
#87 13010 Tobique–Mactaquac Likely CPC98%
#88 35099 Simcoe–Grey Likely CPC98%
#89 35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound Likely CPC98%
#90 13009 Saint John–Rothesay Likely CPC98%
#91 35033 Haldimand–Norfolk Likely CPC98%
#92 35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry Likely CPC98%
#93 35022 Dufferin–Caledon Likely CPC98%
#94 59005 Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola Likely CPC98%
#95 59025 Richmond Centre Likely CPC97%
#96 35040 Huron–Bruce Likely CPC96%
#97 35083 Perth–Wellington Likely CPC96%
#98 35088 Carleton Likely CPC96%
#99 35004 Barrie–Innisfil Likely CPC96%
#100 35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington Likely CPC96%
#101 35104 Thornhill Likely CPC95%
#102 35119 York–Simcoe Likely CPC95%
#103 35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook Likely CPC95%
#104 47003 Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Likely CPC95%
#105 35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka Likely CPC94%
#106 35100 Simcoe North Likely CPC94%
#107 59015 Kootenay–Columbia Likely CPC94%
#108 46002 Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Likely CPC93%
#109 47012 Saskatoon West Likely CPC92%
#110 35056 Markham–Unionville Likely CPC89%
#111 59017 Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Likely CPC89%
#112 59030 South Surrey–White Rock Likely CPC88%
#113 35057 Milton Likely CPC88%
#114 35046 Kitchener–Conestoga Likely CPC87%
#115 59022 Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Likely CPC86%
#116 59008 Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Likely CPC85%
#117 35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington Likely CPC83%
#118 11003 Egmont Leaning CPC78%
#119 24025 Drummond Leaning CPC78%
#120 59014 Kelowna–Lake Country Leaning CPC78%
#121 59031 Steveston–Richmond East Leaning CPC75%
#122 35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South Leaning CPC74%
#123 35074 Oshawa Leaning CPC73%
#124 35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte Leaning CPC70%
#125 24076 Trois-Rivières Leaning CPC68%
#126 35118 York Centre Leaning CPC67%
#127 59023 Port Moody–Coquitlam Leaning CPC67%
#128 24044 Louis-Hébert Leaning CPC67%
#129 35016 Cambridge Leaning CPC66%
#130 59029 South Okanagan–West Kootenay Leaning CPC65%
#131 24007 Beauce Leaning CPC64%
#132 12003 Cumberland–Colchester Leaning CPC63%
#133 35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Leaning CPC62%
#134 35089 St. Catharines Leaning CPC60%
#135 24059 Québec Toss up60%
#136 24066 Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot Toss up60%
#137 35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up59%
#138 35065 Newmarket–Aurora Toss up59%
#139 46013 Winnipeg South Toss up58%
#140 35114 Whitby Toss up57%
#141 35043 King–Vaughan Toss up57%
#142 59007 Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up55%
#143 35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up55%
#144 59002 Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up55%
#145 35087 Richmond Hill Toss up54%
#146 35015 Burlington Toss up54%
#147 35093 Scarborough–Agincourt Toss up54%
#148 35073 Oakville North–Burlington Toss up54%
#149 12002 Central Nova Toss up52%
#150 35024 Eglinton–Lawrence Toss up51%
#151 24032 Jonquière Toss up51%
#152 35063 Mississauga–Streetsville Toss up51%
#153 12009 South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up48%
#154 35084 Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up48%
#155 13003 Fredericton Toss up47%
#156 35041 Kanata–Carleton Toss up44%
#157 10003 Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Leaning LPC39%
#158 60001 Yukon Leaning LPC38%
#159 48019 Edmonton Strathcona Leaning NDP37%
#160 47009 Regina–Wascana Leaning LPC36%
#161 35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore Leaning LPC34%
#162 35053 London West Leaning LPC34%
#163 59009 Courtenay–Alberni Toss up33%
#164 61001 Northwest Territories Leaning LPC29%
#165 59040 Vancouver South Leaning LPC27%
#166 35020 Don Valley North Leaning LPC26%
#167 62001 Nunavut Leaning LPC25%
#168 59011 Delta Leaning LPC24%
#169 35066 Niagara Centre Toss up23%
#170 59010 Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up23%
#171 59037 North Island–Powell River Leaning NDP23%
#172 46009 Saint Boniface–Saint Vital Leaning LPC22%
#173 35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills Leaning LPC22%
#174 46014 Winnipeg South Centre Leaning LPC21%
#175 13007 Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe Leaning LPC20%
#176 10004 Labrador Likely LPC17%
#177 35064 Nepean Likely LPC17%
#178 35092 Sault Ste. Marie Likely LPC16%
#179 35026 Essex Likely NDP16%
#180 35072 Oakville Likely LPC16%
#181 35054 Markham–Stouffville Likely LPC15%
#182 35085 Pickering–Uxbridge Likely LPC15%
#183 11001 Cardigan Leaning LPC14%
#184 59012 Fleetwood–Port Kells Likely LPC14%
#185 12011 West Nova Likely LPC14%
#186 35011 Brampton South Likely LPC13%
#187 35021 Don Valley West Likely LPC13%
#188 35006 Bay of Quinte Likely LPC12%
#189 35094 Scarborough Centre Likely LPC12%
#190 35027 Etobicoke Centre Likely LPC12%
#191 35042 Kenora Leaning NDP12%
#192 35115 Willowdale Likely LPC12%
#193 35008 Brampton Centre Likely LPC11%
#194 35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Likely LPC10%
#195 35055 Markham–Thornhill Likely LPC10%
#196 35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Likely LPC9%
#197 35012 Brampton West Likely LPC9%
#198 35010 Brampton North Likely LPC9%
#199 35112 Waterloo Likely LPC8%
#200 11002 Charlottetown Leaning LPC8%
#201 11004 Malpeque Leaning LPC8%
#202 10005 Long Range Mountains Likely LPC8%
#203 13005 Madawaska–Restigouche Likely LPC6%
#204 35045 Kitchener Centre Likely LPC6%
#205 35001 Ajax Likely LPC5%