338Canada.com - Conservative Party of Canada






338Canada Projection for the Conservative Party of Canada

Latest update: September 17th, 2019



Regional Popular Vote Projection






Regional Seat Projection






National Seat Projection





Ordered list of districts

(Percentages indicate the odds of winning the districts according to the 338Canada Projection of September 17th, 2019.)

#1 48002 Battle River–Crowfoot Safe CPC>99%
#2 48003 Bow River Safe CPC>99%
#3 48029 Red Deer–Mountain View Safe CPC>99%
#4 48022 Foothills Safe CPC>99%
#5 48033 Sturgeon River–Parkland Safe CPC>99%
#6 48025 Lakeland Safe CPC>99%
#7 48024 Grande Prairie–Mackenzie Safe CPC>99%
#8 48034 Yellowhead Safe CPC>99%
#9 48008 Calgary Midnapore Safe CPC>99%
#10 48028 Peace River–Westlock Safe CPC>99%
#11 48030 Red Deer–Lacombe Safe CPC>99%
#12 47002 Cypress Hills–Grasslands Safe CPC>99%
#13 47013 Souris–Moose Mountain Safe CPC>99%
#14 47001 Battlefords–Lloydminster Safe CPC>99%
#15 48021 Edmonton–Wetaskiwin Safe CPC>99%
#16 48032 Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan Safe CPC>99%
#17 48027 Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner Safe CPC>99%
#18 48007 Calgary Heritage Safe CPC>99%
#19 48011 Calgary Shepard Safe CPC>99%
#20 47004 Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek Safe CPC>99%
#21 48009 Calgary Nose Hill Safe CPC>99%
#22 48001 Banff–Airdrie Safe CPC>99%
#23 48026 Lethbridge Safe CPC>99%
#24 48023 Fort McMurray–Cold Lake Safe CPC>99%
#25 47014 Yorkton–Melville Safe CPC>99%
#26 46007 Portage–Lisgar Safe CPC>99%
#27 48010 Calgary Rocky Ridge Safe CPC>99%
#28 48012 Calgary Signal Hill Safe CPC>99%
#29 48018 Edmonton Riverbend Safe CPC>99%
#30 47005 Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan Safe CPC>99%
#31 47008 Regina–Qu'Appelle Safe CPC>99%
#32 48020 Edmonton West Safe CPC>99%
#33 46010 Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman Safe CPC>99%
#34 46004 Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa Safe CPC>99%
#35 46001 Brandon–Souris Safe CPC>99%
#36 47006 Prince Albert Safe CPC>99%
#37 59024 Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies Safe CPC>99%
#38 48016 Edmonton Manning Safe CPC>99%
#39 46008 Provencher Safe CPC>99%
#40 47010 Saskatoon–Grasswood Safe CPC>99%
#41 24010 Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis Safe CPC>99%
#42 24045 Louis-Saint-Laurent Safe CPC>99%
#43 59001 Abbotsford Safe CPC>99%
#44 24042 Lévis–Lotbinière Safe CPC>99%
#45 24019 Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles Safe CPC>99%
#46 24058 Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier Safe CPC>99%
#47 24061 Richmond–Arthabaska Safe CPC>99%
#48 47011 Saskatoon–University Safe CPC>99%
#49 48006 Calgary Forest Lawn Safe CPC>99%
#50 48031 St. Albert–Edmonton Safe CPC>99%
#51 24047 Mégantic–L'Érable Safe CPC>99%
#52 59020 North Okanagan–Shuswap Safe CPC>99%
#53 59016 Langley–Aldergrove Safe CPC>99%
#54 59006 Chilliwack–Hope Safe CPC>99%
#55 48015 Edmonton Griesbach Safe CPC>99%
#56 35048 Lambton–Kent–Middlesex Safe CPC>99%
#57 48005 Calgary Confederation Safe CPC>99%
#58 46006 Kildonan–St. Paul Safe CPC>99%
#59 59013 Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo Safe CPC>99%
#60 35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London Safe CPC>99%
#61 59004 Cariboo–Prince George Safe CPC>99%
#62 59015 Kootenay–Columbia Likely CPC>99%
#63 24022 Chicoutimi–Le Fjord Likely CPC>99%
#64 47007 Regina–Lewvan Likely CPC>99%
#65 35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock Likely CPC>99%
#66 35080 Oxford Likely CPC>99%
#67 48017 Edmonton Mill Woods Likely CPC>99%
#68 35049 Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston Likely CPC>99%
#69 59005 Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola Likely CPC>99%
#70 59025 Richmond Centre Likely CPC>99%
#71 35113 Wellington–Halton Hills Likely CPC>99%
#72 35088 Carleton Likely CPC>99%
#73 35023 Durham Likely CPC99%
#74 35068 Niagara West Likely CPC99%
#75 24020 Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix Likely CPC99%
#76 35091 Sarnia–Lambton Likely CPC99%
#77 48004 Calgary Centre Likely CPC98%
#78 46005 Elmwood–Transcona Likely CPC98%
#79 35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes Likely CPC97%
#80 35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke Likely CPC97%
#81 59017 Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Likely CPC97%
#82 47012 Saskatoon West Likely CPC97%
#83 59022 Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Likely CPC96%
#84 59029 South Okanagan–West Kootenay Likely CPC96%
#85 59030 South Surrey–White Rock Likely CPC96%
#86 59008 Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Likely CPC96%
#87 35099 Simcoe–Grey Likely CPC96%
#88 59023 Port Moody–Coquitlam Likely CPC95%
#89 35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound Likely CPC95%
#90 35033 Haldimand–Norfolk Likely CPC95%
#91 35104 Thornhill Likely CPC95%
#92 35022 Dufferin–Caledon Likely CPC95%
#93 35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry Likely CPC93%
#94 47003 Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Likely CPC93%
#95 48014 Edmonton Centre Likely CPC92%
#96 59014 Kelowna–Lake Country Likely CPC91%
#97 35083 Perth–Wellington Likely CPC91%
#98 35004 Barrie–Innisfil Likely CPC91%
#99 35040 Huron–Bruce Likely CPC90%
#100 35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington Leaning CPC90%
#101 59031 Steveston–Richmond East Leaning CPC89%
#102 35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook Leaning CPC88%
#103 35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka Leaning CPC88%
#104 35100 Simcoe North Leaning CPC87%
#105 13008 New Brunswick Southwest Leaning CPC86%
#106 35067 Niagara Falls Leaning CPC86%
#107 35119 York–Simcoe Leaning CPC86%
#108 24051 Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup Leaning CPC85%
#109 48013 Calgary Skyview Leaning CPC84%
#110 59009 Courtenay–Alberni Leaning CPC84%
#111 13004 Fundy Royal Leaning CPC78%
#112 35074 Oshawa Leaning CPC78%
#113 35013 Brantford–Brant Leaning CPC77%
#114 59007 Cloverdale–Langley City Leaning CPC77%
#115 24008 Beauport–Limoilou Leaning CPC75%
#116 35056 Markham–Unionville Leaning CPC75%
#117 24035 Lac-Saint-Jean Leaning CPC74%
#118 13006 Miramichi–Grand Lake Leaning CPC73%
#119 35046 Kitchener–Conestoga Leaning CPC73%
#120 59037 North Island–Powell River Leaning CPC70%
#121 35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington Toss up69%
#122 24007 Beauce Toss up69%
#123 46013 Winnipeg South Toss up68%
#124 35026 Essex Toss up66%
#125 13010 Tobique–Mactaquac Toss up62%
#126 59002 Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up61%
#127 59010 Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up60%
#128 13009 Saint John–Rothesay Toss up57%
#129 35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South Toss up57%
#130 35057 Milton Toss up55%
#131 35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte Toss up54%
#132 35114 Whitby Toss up53%
#133 59040 Vancouver South Toss up53%
#134 46009 Saint Boniface–Saint Vital Toss up52%
#135 35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up52%
#136 35118 York Centre Toss up51%
#137 24025 Drummond Toss up51%
#138 59011 Delta Toss up49%
#139 35043 King–Vaughan Toss up49%
#140 35016 Cambridge Toss up48%
#141 11003 Egmont Toss up46%
#142 48019 Edmonton Strathcona Toss up45%
#143 35065 Newmarket–Aurora Toss up43%
#144 46002 Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Toss up41%
#145 59012 Fleetwood–Port Kells Toss up41%
#146 24076 Trois-Rivières Toss up40%
#147 35084 Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up40%
#148 35087 Richmond Hill Toss up39%
#149 35073 Oakville North–Burlington Toss up38%
#150 35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Toss up38%
#151 13003 Fredericton Toss up37%
#152 12003 Cumberland–Colchester Toss up36%
#153 59028 Skeena–Bulkley Valley Toss up36%
#154 61001 Northwest Territories Toss up35%
#155 24032 Jonquière Toss up35%
#156 35093 Scarborough–Agincourt Toss up34%
#157 35041 Kanata–Carleton Toss up34%
#158 60001 Yukon Toss up33%
#159 46014 Winnipeg South Centre Toss up33%
#160 59003 Burnaby South Toss up33%
#161 35015 Burlington Toss up32%
#162 35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up31%
#163 35063 Mississauga–Streetsville Toss up31%
#164 62001 Nunavut Toss up30%
#165 35054 Markham–Stouffville Leaning LPC29%
#166 35024 Eglinton–Lawrence Leaning LPC28%
#167 24066 Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot Toss up28%
#168 47009 Regina–Wascana Leaning LPC27%
#169 35089 St. Catharines Leaning LPC23%
#170 12002 Central Nova Leaning LPC23%
#171 12009 South Shore–St. Margarets Leaning LPC20%
#172 59038 Vancouver Kingsway Leaning NDP19%
#173 35053 London West Leaning LPC18%
#174 35116 Windsor–Tecumseh Toss up18%
#175 59019 New Westminster–Burnaby Leaning NDP18%
#176 35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore Leaning LPC16%
#177 35092 Sault Ste. Marie Leaning LPC14%
#178 35020 Don Valley North Leaning LPC11%
#179 59021 North Vancouver Leaning LPC11%
#180 35066 Niagara Centre Likely LPC9%
#181 35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills Likely LPC8%
#182 24059 Québec Likely LPC8%
#183 35042 Kenora Leaning LPC8%
#184 11001 Cardigan Likely LPC7%
#185 35064 Nepean Likely LPC6%
#186 59018 Nanaimo–Ladysmith Likely GPC6%
#187 10003 Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Likely LPC6%
#188 35072 Oakville Likely LPC5%
#189 59042 West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Likely LPC5%