Electoral District Projections — Ontario

Latest update: January 25, 2026

Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Toss up OLP/PC
Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Likely PCPO
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Safe PCPO
Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Safe PCPO
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Likely PCPO
Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Likely PCPO
Beaches—East York Mary-Margaret Mcmahon	L	Safe OLP
Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Likely PCPO
Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Safe PCPO
Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Safe PCPO
Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Safe PCPO
Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Safe PCPO
Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Likely PCPO
Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Leaning PCPO
Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Likely PCPO
Carleton George Darouze	PC	Likely PCPO
Chatham-Kent—Leamington Trevor Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
Davenport Marit Stiles	N	Safe NDP
Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Likely OLP
Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Toss up OLP/PC
Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Likely OLP
Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Safe PCPO
Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Leaning PCPO
Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
Essex Anthony Leardi	PC	Safe PCPO
Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Likely PCPO
Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Leaning OLP
Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Safe PCPO
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Likely PCPO
Guelph Mike Schreiner	G	Safe GPO
Haldimand—Norfolk Bobbi Ann Brady	I	IND safe
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
Hamilton Centre Robin Lennox	N	Safe NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Likely PCPO
Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Likely PCPO
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Leaning NDP
Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Safe PCPO
Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up PC/NDP
Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Safe PCPO
Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Toss up OLP/PC
Kenora—Rainy River Greg Rickford	PC	Safe PCPO
Kiiwetinoong Sol Mamakwa	N	Likely NDP
Kingston and the Islands Ted Hsu	L	Safe OLP
King—Vaughan Stephen Lecce	PC	Safe PCPO
Kitchener Centre Aislinn Clancy	G	Safe GPO
Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Safe PCPO
Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Likely PCPO
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Safe PCPO
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Safe PCPO
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Safe PCPO
London North Centre Terence Kernaghan	N	Likely NDP
London West Peggy Sattler	N	Likely NDP
London—Fanshawe Teresa Armstrong	N	Likely NDP
Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Likely PCPO
Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Likely PCPO
Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Safe PCPO
Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Likely PCPO
Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Likely PCPO
Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning PCPO
Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning PCPO
Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Likely PCPO
Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning PCPO
Mushkegowuk—James Bay Guy Bourgouin	N	Toss up PC/NDP
Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Leaning OLP
Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Likely PCPO
Niagara Centre Jeff Burch	N	Leaning NDP
Niagara Falls Wayne J. Gates	N	Safe NDP
Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Safe PCPO
Nickel Belt France Gélinas	N	Likely NDP
Nipissing Vic Fedeli	PC	Safe PCPO
Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Safe PCPO
Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning PCPO
Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Likely PCPO
Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Likely OLP
Oshawa Jennifer French	N	Leaning NDP
Ottawa Centre Catherine Mckenney	N	Safe NDP
Ottawa South John Fraser	L	Safe OLP
Ottawa West—Nepean Chandra Pasma	N	Safe NDP
Ottawa—Vanier Lucille Collard	L	Safe OLP
Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
Parkdale—High Park Alexa Gilmour	N	Safe NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka Graydon Smith	PC	Leaning PCPO
Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Safe PCPO
Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning PCPO
Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Likely PCPO
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Safe PCPO
Sarnia—Lambton Bob Bailey	PC	Safe PCPO
Sault Ste. Marie Chris Scott [Elected as PC]	I	Leaning PCPO
Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Leaning PCPO
Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	N	Likely NDP
Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Likely PCPO
Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Leaning OLP
Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Likely PCPO
Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Safe PCPO
Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Safe PCPO
Spadina—Fort York Chris Glover	N	Likely NDP
St. Catharines Jennie Stevens	N	Likely NDP
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Nolan Quinn	PC	Safe PCPO
Sudbury Jamie West	N	Likely NDP
Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Safe PCPO
Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Likely NDP
Timiskaming—Cochrane John Vanthof	N	Leaning NDP
Timmins George Pirie	PC	Safe PCPO
Toronto Centre Kristyn Wong-Tam	N	Likely NDP
Toronto—Danforth Peter Tabuns	N	Safe NDP
Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
University—Rosedale Jessica Bell	N	Safe NDP
Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Tibollo	PC	Safe PCPO
Waterloo Catherine Fife	N	Safe NDP
Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Safe PCPO
Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Likely PCPO
Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Leaning PCPO
Windsor West Lisa Gretzky	N	Likely NDP
Windsor—Tecumseh Andrew Dowie	PC	Safe PCPO
York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Leaning PCPO
York—Simcoe Caroline Mulroney	PC	Safe PCPO