Electoral District Projections — Ontario

Latest update: April 29, 2026

Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Likely OLP
Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Likely PCPO
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Likely PCPO
Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Likely PCPO
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Beaches—East York Mary-Margaret Mcmahon	L	Safe OLP
Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Leaning PCPO
Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Likely PCPO
Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Likely PCPO
Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Likely PCPO
Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Likely PCPO
Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Leaning PCPO
Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Likely OLP
Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Carleton George Darouze	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Chatham-Kent—Leamington Trevor Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
Davenport Marit Stiles	N	Safe NDP
Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Safe OLP
Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Likely OLP
Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Safe OLP
Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Likely PCPO
Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Likely PCPO
Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Leaning OLP
Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
Essex Anthony Leardi	PC	Safe PCPO
Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Likely OLP
Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Leaning PCPO
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Guelph Mike Schreiner	G	Safe GPO
Haldimand—Norfolk Bobbi Ann Brady	I	IND safe
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
Hamilton Centre Robin Lennox	N	Safe NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Leaning OLP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Likely NDP
Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Leaning PCPO
Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up OLP/PC/NDP
Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Likely PCPO
Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Likely OLP
Kenora—Rainy River Greg Rickford	PC	Safe PCPO
Kiiwetinoong Sol Mamakwa	N	Safe NDP
Kingston and the Islands Ted Hsu	L	Safe OLP
King—Vaughan Stephen Lecce	PC	Safe PCPO
Kitchener Centre Aislinn Clancy	G	Safe GPO
Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Likely PCPO
Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Likely PCPO
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Leaning PCPO
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Likely PCPO
London North Centre Terence Kernaghan	N	Safe NDP
London West Peggy Sattler	N	Safe NDP
London—Fanshawe Teresa Armstrong	N	Safe NDP
Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Likely PCPO
Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Leaning OLP
Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Leaning OLP
Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning OLP
Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Likely OLP
Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning OLP
Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning OLP
Mushkegowuk—James Bay Guy Bourgouin	N	Leaning NDP
Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Safe OLP
Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Leaning OLP
Niagara Centre Jeff Burch	N	Likely NDP
Niagara Falls Wayne J. Gates	N	Safe NDP
Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Likely PCPO
Nickel Belt France Gélinas	N	Safe NDP
Nipissing Vic Fedeli	PC	Safe PCPO
Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Leaning PCPO
Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning OLP
Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Safe OLP
Oshawa Jennifer French	N	Likely NDP
Ottawa Centre Catherine Mckenney	N	Safe NDP
Ottawa South John Fraser	L	Safe OLP
Ottawa West—Nepean Chandra Pasma	N	Safe NDP
Ottawa—Vanier Lucille Collard	L	Safe OLP
Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
Parkdale—High Park Alexa Gilmour	N	Likely NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka Graydon Smith	PC	Toss up PC/GPO
Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Likely PCPO
Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Likely PCPO
Sarnia—Lambton Bob Bailey	PC	Safe PCPO
Sault Ste. Marie Chris Scott [Elected as PC]	I	Toss up PC/NDP
Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	N	Likely NDP
Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Likely PCPO
Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Likely PCPO
Spadina—Fort York Chris Glover	N	Likely NDP
St. Catharines Jennie Stevens	N	Likely NDP
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Nolan Quinn	PC	Safe PCPO
Sudbury Jamie West	N	Likely NDP
Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Likely PCPO
Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Likely NDP
Timiskaming—Cochrane John Vanthof	N	Likely NDP
Timmins George Pirie	PC	Safe PCPO
Toronto Centre Kristyn Wong-Tam	N	Leaning NDP
Toronto—Danforth Peter Tabuns	N	Safe NDP
Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
University—Rosedale Jessica Bell	N	Likely NDP
Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Tibollo	PC	Safe PCPO
Waterloo Catherine Fife	N	Safe NDP
Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Likely PCPO
Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Leaning OLP
Windsor West Lisa Gretzky	N	Safe NDP
Windsor—Tecumseh Andrew Dowie	PC	Likely PCPO
York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Leaning OLP
York—Simcoe Caroline Mulroney	PC	Safe PCPO