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Ontario

Etobicoke—Lakeshore


MPP: Hogarth, Christine (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Toss up OLP/PCPO

Candidates | Etobicoke—Lakeshore


PC Party of Ontario Christine Hogarth
Liberal Party Lee Fairclough
Ontario NDP Rozhen Asrani
Green Party Sean Mcclocklin
New Blue Party Tony Siskos
None of the Above Party Vitas Naudziunas
Moderate Party Larisa Berson

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Etobicoke—Lakeshore 40% ± 9% PCPO 40% ± 9%▼ OLP 10% ± 4% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 37.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Etobicoke—Lakeshore 50%▼ OLP 50%▲ PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Etobicoke—Lakeshore

OLP 40% ± 9% PCPO 40% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 4% GPO 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke—Lakeshore 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 40% OLP 36% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 41% OLP 36% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 43% OLP 35% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 43% OLP 36% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 43% OLP 36% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 43% OLP 36% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 44% OLP 36% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 44% OLP 36% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 44% OLP 36% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 44% OLP 36% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 44% OLP 36% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 44% OLP 37% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 44% OLP 37% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 44% OLP 37% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 41% PCPO 40% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 41% PCPO 40% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Etobicoke—Lakeshore

OLP 50% PCPO 50% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 74% OLP 26% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 90% OLP 10% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 53% OLP 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 63% PCPO 37% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 60% PCPO 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 53% PCPO 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 50% PCPO 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke—Lakeshore



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.1% 38.4% 37.4% 40% ± 9% OLP 47.6% 24.3% 35.8% 40% ± 9% NDP 12.5% 32.8% 17.9% 10% ± 4% GPO 4.1% 3.6% 4.7% 8% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 1% ± 1%