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Ontario

Etobicoke—Lakeshore


MPP: Hogarth, Christine (PCPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Leaning PCPO
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 40% ± 9%▲ PCPO 36% ± 9%▼ OLP 16% ± 6% NDP 6% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 37.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Etobicoke—Lakeshore 74%▲ PCPO 26%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Etobicoke—Lakeshore

OLP 36% ± 9% PCPO 40% ± 9% NDP 16% ± 6% GPO 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke—Lakeshore 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 23% GPO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 34% PCPO 34% NDP 23% GPO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 34% PCPO 34% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 34% PCPO 34% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 34% PCPO 34% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 34% PCPO 33% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 34% PCPO 33% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 35% PCPO 33% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 35% OLP 34% NDP 23% GPO 4% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 35% OLP 34% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 35% OLP 33% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 35% PCPO 35% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 35% PCPO 35% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 35% PCPO 34% NDP 22% GPO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 34% PCPO 34% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 34% PCPO 34% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 34% PCPO 34% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 34% PCPO 34% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 35% OLP 34% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 35% OLP 34% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 35% OLP 34% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 35% OLP 34% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 37% OLP 32% NDP 21% GPO 5% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 37% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 37% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 37% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 37% PCPO 36% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 37% PCPO 37% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 37% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 37% PCPO 33% NDP 19% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 37% PCPO 33% NDP 19% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 37% PCPO 34% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 37% PCPO 35% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 38% PCPO 32% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 36% PCPO 34% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 38% PCPO 35% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 38% PCPO 35% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 43% PCPO 31% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 41% PCPO 34% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 40% PCPO 35% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 39% PCPO 36% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 38% PCPO 37% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 38% PCPO 37% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 40% OLP 36% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Etobicoke—Lakeshore

OLP 26% PCPO 74% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 54% PCPO 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 50% PCPO 50% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 50% PCPO 50% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 50% PCPO 50% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 54% PCPO 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 58% PCPO 42% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 63% PCPO 37% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 57% OLP 43% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 57% OLP 43% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 64% OLP 36% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 57% PCPO 43% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 55% PCPO 45% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 51% PCPO 48% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 54% PCPO 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 50% PCPO 50% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 61% OLP 39% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 61% OLP 39% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 85% OLP 15% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 59% OLP 41% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 75% PCPO 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 75% PCPO 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 68% PCPO 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 66% PCPO 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 88% PCPO 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 66% PCPO 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 66% PCPO 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 73% PCPO 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 79% PCPO 21% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 73% PCPO 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke—Lakeshore



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.1% 38.4% 37.4% 40% ± 9% OLP 47.6% 24.3% 35.8% 36% ± 9% NDP 12.5% 32.8% 17.9% 16% ± 6% GPO 4.1% 3.6% 4.7% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 2% ± 2%