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Ontario

Algoma—Manitoulin


MPP : Bill Rosenberg (PCPO)
Latest projection: June 7, 2025
Likely PCPO

Recent electoral history | Algoma—Manitoulin


2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 53.4% 58.3% 46.0% 27% ± 9% PCPO 17.3% 24.6% 35.4% 42% ± 10% OLP 24.5% 8.3% 8.7% 14% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 3% ± 3% GPO 3.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12% ± 7%

Algoma—Manitoulin 42% ± 10%▲ PCPO 27% ± 9% NDP 14% ± 6% OLP 12% ± 7% IND NDP 2022 46.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 7, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Algoma—Manitoulin 99%▼ PCPO 1%▲ NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | June 7, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Algoma—Manitoulin

OLP 14% ± 6% PCPO 42% ± 10% NDP 27% ± 9% IND 12% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Algoma—Manitoulin 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP IND June 7, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 41% PCPO 39% OLP 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% PCPO 40% OLP 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 41% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 43% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 43% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 43% NDP 37% OLP 12% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 43% NDP 37% OLP 11% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 39% NDP 36% OLP 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 41% NDP 27% OLP 14% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 42% NDP 27% OLP 14% 2025-06-07

Odds of winning | Algoma—Manitoulin

OLP <1% PCPO 99% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 7, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 57% PCPO 43% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 55% PCPO 45% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 75% NDP 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 73% NDP 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 76% NDP 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 81% NDP 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 81% NDP 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 82% NDP 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 61% NDP 39% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 57% NDP 43% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 54% NDP 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 54% NDP 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 63% NDP 37% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 63% NDP 37% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07