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Ontario

Algoma—Manitoulin


MPP elect: Bill Rosenberg (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Algoma—Manitoulin


PC Party of Ontario Bill Rosenberg
Liberal Party Reg Niganobe
Ontario NDP David Timeriski
Green Party Maria Legault
New Blue Party Sheldon Pressey
Independent Michael Mantha

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Algoma—Manitoulin 41% ± 0%▲ PCPO 27% ± 0%▼ NDP 14% ± 0%▲ OLP 12% ± 0%▲ IND NDP 2022 46.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Algoma—Manitoulin >99%▲ PCPO <1%▼ NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Algoma—Manitoulin

OLP 14% ± 0% PCPO 41% ± 0% NDP 27% ± 0% IND 12% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Algoma—Manitoulin 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP IND February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 41% PCPO 39% OLP 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% PCPO 40% OLP 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 41% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 43% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 43% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 43% NDP 37% OLP 12% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 43% NDP 37% OLP 11% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 39% NDP 36% OLP 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 41% NDP 27% OLP 14% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Algoma—Manitoulin

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 57% PCPO 43% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 55% PCPO 45% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 75% NDP 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 73% NDP 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 76% NDP 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 81% NDP 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 81% NDP 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 82% NDP 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 61% NDP 39% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 57% NDP 43% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 54% NDP 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 54% NDP 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 63% NDP 37% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 63% NDP 37% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Algoma—Manitoulin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 53.4% 58.3% 46.0% 27% ± 0% PCPO 17.3% 24.6% 35.4% 41% ± 0% OLP 24.5% 8.3% 8.7% 14% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 3% ± 0% GPO 3.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12% ± 0%