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Recent electoral history | Algoma—Manitoulin


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 43% ± 10% 24.6% 35.4% 41.3% NDP 26% ± 9% 58.3% 46.0% 27.2% OLP 14% ± 6% 8.3% 8.7% 14.5% IND 11% ± 7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% NBPO 3% ± 3% 0.0% 5.3% 2.6% GPO 2% ± 3% 3.6% 3.1% 2.5%

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338Canada Algoma—Manitoulin projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Algoma—Manitoulin 33% 53% 43% ± 10% PC 17% 35% 26% ± 9% NDP 8% 20% 14% ± 6% OLP 4% 19% 11% ± 7% IND PC 2025 41.33% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Algoma—Manitoulin >99% PC <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Algoma—Manitoulin

OLP 14% ± 6% PC 43% ± 10% NDP 26% ± 9% IND 11% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Algoma—Manitoulin 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP IND February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 41% PC 39% OLP 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% PC 40% OLP 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 42% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 42% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 41% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 43% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 43% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 43% NDP 37% OLP 12% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 43% NDP 37% OLP 11% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 40% NDP 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 40% NDP 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 40% NDP 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 39% NDP 36% OLP 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 38% NDP 37% OLP 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 38% NDP 36% OLP 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 41% NDP 27% OLP 14% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 42% NDP 27% OLP 14% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 42% NDP 27% OLP 15% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 42% NDP 26% OLP 14% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 47% NDP 23% OLP 14% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 47% NDP 22% OLP 14% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 46% NDP 24% OLP 14% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 44% NDP 26% OLP 14% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 43% NDP 26% OLP 14% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 43% NDP 26% OLP 14% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Algoma—Manitoulin

OLP <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 57% PC 43% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 55% PC 45% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 75% NDP 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 73% NDP 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 76% NDP 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 81% NDP 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 81% NDP 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 82% NDP 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 61% NDP 39% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 57% NDP 43% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 54% NDP 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 54% NDP 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 63% NDP 37% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 63% NDP 37% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2026-02-18