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Ontario

Algoma—Manitoulin


MPP: Vacant ()

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up PCPO/NDP
Algoma—Manitoulin 39% ± 10%▲ NDP 39% ± 10%▲ PCPO 14% ± 6% OLP 5% ± 4% GPO 3% ± 3%▼ NBPO NDP 2022 46.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Algoma—Manitoulin 50%▲ NDP 50%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Algoma—Manitoulin

OLP 14% ± 6% PCPO 39% ± 10% NDP 39% ± 10% GPO 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Algoma—Manitoulin 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 43% PCPO 27% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 43% PCPO 27% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 42% PCPO 27% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 42% PCPO 27% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 42% PCPO 27% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 43% PCPO 27% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 43% PCPO 27% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 42% PCPO 27% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 42% PCPO 27% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 42% PCPO 27% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 42% PCPO 28% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 42% PCPO 28% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 44% PCPO 29% OLP 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 44% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 44% PCPO 29% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 42% PCPO 29% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 44% PCPO 29% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 44% PCPO 28% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 44% PCPO 28% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 43% PCPO 27% GPO 14% OLP 11% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 43% PCPO 27% GPO 14% OLP 11% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 43% PCPO 28% GPO 14% OLP 11% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 43% PCPO 28% GPO 14% OLP 12% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 42% PCPO 28% GPO 14% OLP 11% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 42% PCPO 28% GPO 14% OLP 11% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 46% PCPO 28% OLP 12% GPO 9% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 45% PCPO 29% OLP 12% GPO 9% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 45% PCPO 29% OLP 12% GPO 9% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 47% PCPO 28% OLP 11% GPO 9% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 47% PCPO 29% OLP 11% GPO 9% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 46% PCPO 29% OLP 11% GPO 9% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 46% PCPO 35% OLP 9% GPO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 46% PCPO 35% OLP 9% GPO 3% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 44% PCPO 36% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 44% PCPO 36% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 44% PCPO 36% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 45% PCPO 35% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 47% PCPO 32% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 47% PCPO 32% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 47% PCPO 33% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 46% PCPO 33% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 48% PCPO 31% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 47% PCPO 33% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 47% PCPO 35% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 46% PCPO 35% OLP 10% GPO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 46% PCPO 35% OLP 10% GPO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 37% PCPO 31% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 35% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 37% PCPO 33% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 39% PCPO 36% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 39% PCPO 37% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 39% NDP 37% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 38% PCPO 37% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 38% NDP 38% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 39% PCPO 39% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Algoma—Manitoulin

OLP <1% PCPO 50% NDP 50% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 65% PCPO 35% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 71% PCPO 29% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 65% PCPO 35% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 62% PCPO 38% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 62% NDP 38% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 52% NDP 48% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 50% PCPO 50% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Algoma—Manitoulin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 53.4% 58.3% 46.0% 39% ± 10% PCPO 17.3% 24.6% 35.4% 39% ± 10% OLP 24.5% 8.3% 8.7% 14% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 3% ± 3% GPO 3.1% 3.6% 3.1% 5% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 2%