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Ontario

Brampton North


MPP: Mcgregor, Graham (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Likely PCPO
Brampton North 46% ± 9% PCPO 29% ± 8% OLP 18% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 45.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brampton North >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Brampton North

OLP 29% ± 8% PCPO 46% ± 9% NDP 18% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Brampton North 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 21% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 24% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 25% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 25% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 25% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 25% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 25% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 24% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 24% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 24% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 24% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 36% OLP 32% NDP 24% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 25% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 36% OLP 32% NDP 26% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 35% OLP 33% NDP 26% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 24% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 24% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 36% OLP 32% NDP 24% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 26% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 26% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 26% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 25% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 25% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 35% OLP 31% NDP 25% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 35% OLP 31% NDP 25% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 35% OLP 31% NDP 25% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 38% OLP 30% NDP 24% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 45% OLP 29% NDP 20% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 45% OLP 29% NDP 20% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 45% OLP 30% NDP 19% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 18% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 18% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 19% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 41% OLP 30% NDP 21% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 41% OLP 30% NDP 21% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 20% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 20% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 21% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 21% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 45% OLP 29% NDP 20% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 20% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 19% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 19% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 18% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 19% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 44% OLP 31% NDP 19% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 45% OLP 29% NDP 19% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 47% OLP 29% NDP 18% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 46% OLP 29% NDP 18% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 46% OLP 29% NDP 18% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Brampton North

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 61% OLP 39% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 60% OLP 39% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 65% OLP 35% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 62% OLP 37% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 60% OLP 39% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 55% OLP 44% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 53% OLP 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 72% OLP 28% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 72% OLP 28% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 78% OLP 22% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 68% OLP 31% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 69% OLP 30% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 72% OLP 27% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 74% OLP 26% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 73% OLP 26% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 74% OLP 25% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 72% OLP 27% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 76% OLP 23% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 75% OLP 24% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 76% OLP 23% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 84% OLP 16% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Brampton North



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 24.4% 36.3% 45.0% 46% ± 9% OLP 39.9% 21.2% 28.8% 29% ± 8% NDP 31.3% 37.6% 19.8% 18% ± 6% GPO 3.4% 3.5% 3.0% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 1%