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Ontario

London North Centre


MPP: Kernaghan, Terence (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning NDP

Candidates | London North Centre


PC Party of Ontario Jerry Pribil
Liberal Party Tariq Khan
Ontario NDP Terence Kernaghan
Green Party Carol Dyck
New Blue Party Chris Wile
Freedom Party Paul Mckeever

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

London North Centre 36% ± 8% NDP 33% ± 8% PCPO 24% ± 7%▲ OLP 6% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 39.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% London North Centre 74% NDP 26% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | London North Centre

OLP 24% ± 7% PCPO 33% ± 8% NDP 36% ± 8% GPO 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | London North Centre 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 25% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 25% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 34% NDP 34% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 34% NDP 33% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 34% PCPO 34% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 34% NDP 32% OLP 25% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 34% NDP 32% OLP 25% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 35% NDP 32% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 35% NDP 32% OLP 25% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 34% NDP 32% OLP 25% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 34% NDP 33% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 34% NDP 33% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 35% NDP 32% OLP 25% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 35% NDP 31% OLP 25% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 35% NDP 31% OLP 26% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 36% PCPO 33% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 36% PCPO 33% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 36% PCPO 33% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 36% PCPO 32% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 36% PCPO 32% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 36% PCPO 33% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 36% PCPO 33% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | London North Centre

OLP <1% PCPO 26% NDP 74% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 72% PCPO 27% OLP 1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 70% PCPO 30% OLP 1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 52% NDP 48% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 54% NDP 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 50% PCPO 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP 1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 63% NDP 37% OLP 1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 69% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 67% NDP 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 63% NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 59% NDP 41% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 64% NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 71% NDP 29% OLP 1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 77% NDP 22% OLP 1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 76% NDP 23% OLP 1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 73% PCPO 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 72% PCPO 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 72% PCPO 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 74% PCPO 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 74% PCPO 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | London North Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 30.0% 47.6% 39.1% 36% ± 8% PCPO 26.6% 30.9% 30.0% 33% ± 8% OLP 36.4% 15.7% 20.6% 24% ± 7% GPO 5.3% 4.6% 4.8% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 1% ± 1%