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Ontario


London North Centre


MPP: Kernaghan, Terence (NDP)


Latest projection: April 4, 2024

Leaning NDP
London North Centre 34% ± 8%▲ 29% ± 8% 26% ± 7%▼ 6% ± 4%▼ NDP 2022 39.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 4, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% London North Centre 85%▲ 13%▼ 2%▼ Odds of winning | April 4, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | London North Centre

OLP 26% ± 7% PCPO 29% ± 8% NDP 34% ± 8% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | London North Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | London North Centre

OLP 2% PCPO 13% NDP 85% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | London North Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 30.0% 47.6% 39.1% 34% ± 8% PCPO 26.6% 30.9% 30.0% 29% ± 8% OLP 36.4% 15.7% 20.6% 26% ± 7% GPO 5.3% 4.6% 4.8% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1% ± 1%