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Ontario

Parry Sound—Muskoka


MPP elect: Graydon Smith (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Parry Sound—Muskoka


PC Party of Ontario Graydon Smith
Liberal Party David Innes
Ontario NDP Jim Ronholm
Green Party Matt Richter
New Blue Party Brandon Nicksy
Ontario Party Helen Kroeker

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Parry Sound—Muskoka 47% ± 0%▼ PCPO 42% ± 0%▲ GPO 6% ± 0%▼ OLP PCPO 2022 45.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Parry Sound—Muskoka 90%▲ PCPO 10%▼ GPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Parry Sound—Muskoka

OLP 6% ± 0% PCPO 47% ± 0% GPO 42% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Parry Sound—Muskoka 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 46% GPO 37% OLP 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 46% GPO 37% OLP 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 49% GPO 35% OLP 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 49% GPO 35% OLP 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 49% GPO 34% OLP 10% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 49% GPO 35% OLP 10% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 49% GPO 35% OLP 10% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 50% GPO 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 50% GPO 34% OLP 10% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 49% GPO 34% OLP 10% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 49% GPO 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 49% GPO 34% OLP 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 49% GPO 35% OLP 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 49% GPO 35% OLP 10% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 50% GPO 35% OLP 10% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 50% GPO 35% OLP 10% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 50% GPO 34% OLP 10% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 50% GPO 34% OLP 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 49% GPO 35% OLP 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 49% GPO 35% OLP 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 50% GPO 34% OLP 10% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 48% GPO 38% OLP 8% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 47% GPO 38% OLP 8% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 47% GPO 38% OLP 8% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 47% GPO 38% OLP 8% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 47% GPO 38% OLP 8% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 48% GPO 38% OLP 8% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 48% GPO 38% OLP 8% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 48% GPO 39% OLP 8% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 47% GPO 42% OLP 6% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Parry Sound—Muskoka

OLP <1% PCPO 90% NDP <1% GPO 10% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 87% GPO 13% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 87% GPO 13% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 97% GPO 3% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 97% GPO 3% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 97% GPO 3% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 97% GPO 3% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 97% GPO 3% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 99% GPO 1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 99% GPO 1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 98% GPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 99% GPO 1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 90% GPO 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 90% GPO 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 90% GPO 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 89% GPO 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 89% GPO 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 90% GPO 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 92% GPO 8% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 88% GPO 12% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 90% GPO 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Parry Sound—Muskoka



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 40.7% 48.1% 45.4% 47% ± 0% GPO 19.3% 20.0% 40.7% 42% ± 0% NDP 12.9% 22.0% 7.6% 3% ± 0% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 1% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2% ± 0% OLP 26.2% 8.6% 0.0% 6% ± 0%