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Ontario

Ottawa West—Nepean


MPP: Pasma, Chandra (NDP)

Latest projection: July 29, 2024
Leaning PCPO
Ottawa West—Nepean 36% ± 9%▲ PCPO 33% ± 8%▼ NDP 24% ± 7% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 37.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa West—Nepean 72%▲ PCPO 27%▼ NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | July 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa West—Nepean

OLP 24% ± 7% PCPO 36% ± 9% NDP 33% ± 8% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa West—Nepean 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO July 29, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 40% PCPO 30% NDP 22% GPO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 37% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 37% PCPO 31% NDP 24% GPO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 37% PCPO 31% NDP 24% GPO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 37% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 25% GPO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 24% GPO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 34% PCPO 30% NDP 28% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 33% PCPO 31% NDP 28% GPO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 28% GPO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 28% GPO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 28% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 33% PCPO 33% NDP 28% GPO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 34% PCPO 32% NDP 28% GPO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 35% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 34% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 34% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 28% GPO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 28% GPO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 33% PCPO 31% NDP 28% GPO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 33% OLP 33% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 33% OLP 33% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 33% PCPO 33% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 33% PCPO 33% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 33% PCPO 33% NDP 25% GPO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 35% NDP 35% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 35% NDP 35% OLP 24% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 35% PCPO 35% OLP 24% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 36% PCPO 35% OLP 24% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 38% PCPO 31% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 38% PCPO 31% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 37% PCPO 32% OLP 23% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 37% PCPO 33% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 38% PCPO 30% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 38% PCPO 32% OLP 23% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 23% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 36% PCPO 33% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 36% PCPO 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 35% PCPO 31% OLP 28% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 27% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 35% PCPO 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 35% PCPO 34% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 35% PCPO 35% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 36% NDP 33% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2024-07-29

Odds of winning | Ottawa West—Nepean

OLP <1% PCPO 72% NDP 27% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO July 29, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 94% PCPO 6% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 96% PCPO 4% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 86% PCPO 14% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 86% PCPO 14% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 87% PCPO 13% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 90% PCPO 10% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 92% PCPO 8% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 71% PCPO 23% NDP 7% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 56% PCPO 36% NDP 8% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 56% PCPO 37% NDP 7% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 54% PCPO 40% NDP 6% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 54% PCPO 40% NDP 6% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 47% PCPO 46% NDP 7% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 59% PCPO 34% NDP 7% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 65% PCPO 32% NDP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 63% PCPO 34% NDP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 60% PCPO 37% NDP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 59% PCPO 36% NDP 6% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 58% PCPO 36% NDP 6% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 60% PCPO 34% NDP 6% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 56% PCPO 39% NDP 5% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 58% PCPO 38% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 57% PCPO 39% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 57% PCPO 39% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 54% PCPO 42% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 49% OLP 49% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 49% OLP 49% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 49% PCPO 49% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 50% PCPO 49% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 50% PCPO 49% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 71% PCPO 29% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 70% PCPO 30% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 50% NDP 50% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 50% NDP 50% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 50% NDP 50% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 57% PCPO 43% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 90% PCPO 10% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 93% PCPO 7% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 84% PCPO 16% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 68% PCPO 32% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 70% PCPO 30% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 68% PCPO 32% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 74% PCPO 22% OLP 4% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 56% PCPO 42% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 64% PCPO 36% OLP 1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 56% PCPO 43% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 52% PCPO 48% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 72% NDP 27% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-07-29

Recent electoral history | Ottawa West—Nepean



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 14.4% 32.5% 37.0% 33% ± 8% PCPO 33.9% 32.8% 34.9% 36% ± 9% OLP 44.8% 29.3% 22.7% 24% ± 7% GPO 6.2% 3.8% 3.9% 5% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1%