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Ontario

Ottawa West—Nepean


MPP: Pasma, Chandra (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning PCPO

Candidates | Ottawa West—Nepean


PC Party of Ontario Husien Abu-Rayash
Liberal Party Brett Szmul
Ontario NDP Chandra Pasma
Green Party Sophia Andrew-Joiner
New Blue Party Rylan Vroom

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Ottawa West—Nepean 37% ± 9% PCPO 33% ± 8% NDP 25% ± 7% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 37.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa West—Nepean 75%▲ PCPO 25%▼ NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa West—Nepean

OLP 25% ± 7% PCPO 37% ± 9% NDP 33% ± 8% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa West—Nepean 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 36% NDP 34% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 37% NDP 35% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 23% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 38% NDP 33% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 38% NDP 32% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 38% NDP 32% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 37% NDP 32% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 36% NDP 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 36% NDP 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Ottawa West—Nepean

OLP <1% PCPO 75% NDP 25% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 68% NDP 32% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 71% NDP 29% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 63% NDP 37% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 73% NDP 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 74% NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 77% NDP 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 74% NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 75% NDP 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 85% NDP 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 85% NDP 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 81% NDP 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 77% NDP 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 78% NDP 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 67% NDP 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 68% NDP 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 74% NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 75% NDP 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Ottawa West—Nepean



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 14.4% 32.5% 37.0% 33% ± 8% PCPO 33.9% 32.8% 34.9% 37% ± 9% OLP 44.8% 29.3% 22.7% 25% ± 7% GPO 6.2% 3.8% 3.9% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%