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Ontario

Bay of Quinte


MPP : Tyler Allsopp (PCPO)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Likely PCPO

Recent electoral history | Bay of Quinte


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 39.0% 48.1% 49.3% 45% ± 9% NDP 17.1% 31.8% 20.9% 18% ± 6% OLP 38.2% 14.9% 18.5% 32% ± 8% GPO 4.9% 3.4% 6.3% 3% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 1% ± 1%

Bay of Quinte 45% ± 9% PCPO 32% ± 8%▲ OLP 18% ± 6% NDP PCPO 2022 49.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bay of Quinte 99% PCPO 1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bay of Quinte

OLP 32% ± 8% PCPO 45% ± 9% NDP 18% ± 6% GPO 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Bay of Quinte 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 41% OLP 30% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 41% OLP 30% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 44% OLP 29% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 44% OLP 29% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 43% OLP 30% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 44% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 44% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 45% OLP 30% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 46% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 46% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 46% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 46% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 47% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 47% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 44% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 45% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Bay of Quinte

OLP 1% PCPO 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-27