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Recent electoral history | Bay of Quinte


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 46% ± 9% 48.1% 49.3% 44.4% OLP 30% ± 8% 14.9% 18.5% 31.5% NDP 18% ± 6% 31.8% 20.9% 18.5% GPO 3% ± 2% 3.4% 6.3% 3.4% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 2.6% 1.1% ONP 1% ± 1% 0.0% 2.5% 1.1%

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338Canada Bay of Quinte projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Bay of Quinte 37% 55% 46% ± 9% PC 22% 39% 30% ± 8% OLP 12% 24% 18% ± 6% NDP PC 2025 44.42% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bay of Quinte >99% PC <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Bay of Quinte

OLP 30% ± 8% PC 46% ± 9% NDP 18% ± 6% GPO 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Bay of Quinte 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 41% OLP 30% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 41% OLP 30% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 44% OLP 29% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 44% OLP 29% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 43% OLP 30% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 44% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 44% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 45% OLP 30% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 44% OLP 30% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 44% OLP 30% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 44% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 44% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 44% OLP 32% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 44% OLP 32% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 46% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 46% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 46% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 46% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 47% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 47% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 44% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 45% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 49% OLP 30% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 49% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 48% OLP 30% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 47% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 47% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 46% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Bay of Quinte

OLP <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-18