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Ontario

Timiskaming—Cochrane


MPP: Vanthof, John (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Toss up PCPO/NDP

Candidates | Timiskaming—Cochrane


PC Party of Ontario Tory Delaurier
Liberal Party Rick Ellsmere
Ontario NDP John Vanthof
Green Party Kris Rivard
New Blue Party Stephen Macleod

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Timiskaming—Cochrane 41% ± 10% PCPO 38% ± 10% NDP 9% ± 5% OLP 9% ± 5% GPO NDP 2022 42.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Timiskaming—Cochrane 67% PCPO 33% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Timiskaming—Cochrane

OLP 9% ± 5% PCPO 41% ± 10% NDP 38% ± 10% GPO 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Timiskaming—Cochrane 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 39% NDP 37% GPO 9% OLP 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 39% NDP 36% GPO 9% OLP 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 43% NDP 36% GPO 8% OLP 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 43% NDP 37% GPO 8% OLP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 42% NDP 37% OLP 8% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 43% NDP 36% OLP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 43% NDP 36% OLP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 43% NDP 35% OLP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 43% NDP 35% OLP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 43% NDP 36% OLP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 43% NDP 36% OLP 8% GPO 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 43% NDP 36% OLP 8% GPO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 43% NDP 35% OLP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 44% NDP 34% OLP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 45% NDP 35% OLP 9% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 42% NDP 38% OLP 9% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 42% NDP 38% OLP 9% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 42% NDP 38% OLP 9% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 40% NDP 39% OLP 9% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 41% NDP 39% OLP 9% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 41% NDP 38% OLP 9% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 41% NDP 38% OLP 9% GPO 9% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Timiskaming—Cochrane

OLP <1% PCPO 67% NDP 33% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 64% NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 84% NDP 16% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 77% NDP 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 85% NDP 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 88% NDP 12% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 88% NDP 12% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 89% NDP 11% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 93% NDP 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 93% NDP 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 73% NDP 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 59% NDP 41% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 60% NDP 40% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Timiskaming—Cochrane



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 55.5% 61.2% 42.9% 38% ± 10% PCPO 17.2% 22.5% 35.5% 41% ± 10% OLP 23.2% 9.0% 6.8% 9% ± 5% GPO 1.8% 4.0% 6.2% 9% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 3% ± 3%