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Ontario

Timmins


MPP: Pirie, George (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Safe PCPO
Timmins 61% ± 12% PCPO 19% ± 9% NDP 15% ± 8% OLP 3% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 64.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Timmins >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Timmins

OLP 15% ± 8% PCPO 61% ± 12% NDP 19% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Timmins 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 42% PCPO 32% OLP 16% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 43% PCPO 31% OLP 16% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 42% PCPO 32% OLP 16% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 41% PCPO 32% OLP 16% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 42% PCPO 32% OLP 16% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 42% PCPO 32% OLP 16% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 42% PCPO 31% OLP 16% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 41% PCPO 32% OLP 17% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 41% PCPO 31% OLP 17% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 41% PCPO 32% OLP 16% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 41% PCPO 32% OLP 17% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 17% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 49% PCPO 39% OLP 0% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 49% PCPO 39% OLP 0% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 49% PCPO 39% OLP 0% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 48% PCPO 40% OLP 0% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 49% PCPO 38% OLP 0% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 49% PCPO 38% OLP 0% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 49% PCPO 37% OLP 0% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 49% PCPO 37% OLP 0% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 49% PCPO 37% OLP 0% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 48% PCPO 37% OLP 0% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 48% PCPO 37% OLP 0% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 47% PCPO 37% OLP 0% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 47% PCPO 37% OLP 0% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 47% PCPO 37% OLP 0% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 46% PCPO 38% OLP 0% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 46% PCPO 38% OLP 0% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 46% PCPO 38% OLP 0% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 46% PCPO 38% OLP 0% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 46% PCPO 39% OLP 0% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 65% NDP 29% OLP 0% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 64% NDP 30% OLP 0% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 66% NDP 28% OLP 0% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 66% NDP 28% OLP 0% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 66% NDP 28% OLP 0% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 65% NDP 29% OLP 0% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 60% NDP 32% OLP 0% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 55% NDP 30% OLP 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 56% NDP 29% OLP 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 57% NDP 29% OLP 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 54% NDP 30% OLP 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 56% NDP 29% OLP 8% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 59% NDP 28% OLP 8% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 58% NDP 28% OLP 8% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 58% NDP 28% OLP 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 52% NDP 23% OLP 20% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 57% NDP 20% OLP 18% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 57% NDP 21% OLP 17% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 59% NDP 20% OLP 16% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 60% NDP 20% OLP 15% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 62% NDP 18% OLP 15% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 61% NDP 19% OLP 15% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 61% NDP 19% OLP 15% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Timmins

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 89% PCPO 11% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 91% PCPO 9% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 90% PCPO 10% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 91% PCPO 9% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 87% PCPO 13% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 86% PCPO 14% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 86% PCPO 14% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 85% PCPO 15% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 85% PCPO 15% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 85% PCPO 15% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 85% PCPO 15% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 83% PCPO 17% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 79% PCPO 21% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Timmins



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 31.3% 29.6% 64.9% 61% ± 12% NDP 46.0% 57.4% 29.5% 19% ± 9% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2% ± 3% GPO 2.0% 1.8% 2.3% 3% ± 3% OLP 20.5% 8.8% 0.0% 15% ± 8%