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Ontario

London—Fanshawe


MPP: Armstrong, Teresa (NDP)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Leaning NDP
London—Fanshawe 41% ± 9% NDP 35% ± 8% PCPO 13% ± 5% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO 3% ± 2% NBPO NDP 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% London—Fanshawe 85%▼ NDP 15%▲ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | London—Fanshawe

OLP 13% ± 5% PCPO 35% ± 8% NDP 41% ± 9% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | London—Fanshawe 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 41% PCPO 31% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 40% PCPO 32% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 40% PCPO 32% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 40% PCPO 32% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 40% PCPO 32% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 40% PCPO 32% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 39% PCPO 32% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 39% PCPO 32% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 39% PCPO 32% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 39% PCPO 32% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 37% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 37% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 36% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 37% PCPO 29% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 36% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 36% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 36% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 36% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 39% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 38% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 38% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 47% PCPO 33% OLP 10% GPO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 48% PCPO 32% OLP 10% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 45% PCPO 33% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 45% PCPO 33% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 45% PCPO 33% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 46% PCPO 33% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 48% PCPO 29% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 48% PCPO 29% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 48% PCPO 30% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 47% PCPO 31% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 49% PCPO 29% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 48% PCPO 30% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 47% PCPO 32% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 47% PCPO 32% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 47% PCPO 32% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 43% PCPO 31% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 43% PCPO 33% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 42% PCPO 33% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 42% PCPO 34% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 40% PCPO 36% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 41% PCPO 35% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 41% PCPO 35% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | London—Fanshawe

OLP <1% PCPO 15% NDP 85% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 96% PCPO 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 88% PCPO 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 88% PCPO 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 86% PCPO 14% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 86% PCPO 14% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 96% PCPO 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 77% PCPO 23% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 88% PCPO 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 85% PCPO 15% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | London—Fanshawe



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 50.1% 55.7% 47.1% 41% ± 9% PCPO 22.8% 29.8% 32.8% 35% ± 8% OLP 20.2% 8.4% 10.4% 13% ± 5% GPO 4.2% 4.5% 3.5% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1% ± 2%