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Ontario

London—Fanshawe


MPP: Armstrong, Teresa (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning NDP

Candidates | London—Fanshawe


PC Party of Ontario Pete Vanderley
Liberal Party Kevin May
Ontario NDP Teresa Armstrong
Green Party William Osbourne-Sorrell
New Blue Party Christopher West
Freedom Party Dave Durnin
Independent Alan John Mcdonald

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

London—Fanshawe 43% ± 9% NDP 38% ± 9% PCPO 12% ± 5% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% London—Fanshawe 80% NDP 20% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | London—Fanshawe

OLP 12% ± 5% PCPO 38% ± 9% NDP 43% ± 9% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | London—Fanshawe 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 43% PCPO 35% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 42% PCPO 36% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 42% PCPO 38% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 42% PCPO 39% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 42% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 41% PCPO 39% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 40% PCPO 39% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 40% PCPO 40% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 40% PCPO 39% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 40% PCPO 39% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 41% PCPO 39% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 41% PCPO 39% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 40% PCPO 39% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 40% NDP 39% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 40% NDP 39% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 43% PCPO 38% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 43% PCPO 38% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 43% PCPO 38% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 44% PCPO 37% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 43% PCPO 37% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 43% PCPO 38% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 43% PCPO 38% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | London—Fanshawe

OLP <1% PCPO 20% NDP 80% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 86% PCPO 14% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 71% PCPO 29% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 74% PCPO 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 62% PCPO 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 61% PCPO 39% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 54% PCPO 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 56% PCPO 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 60% PCPO 40% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 65% PCPO 35% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 59% PCPO 41% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 52% PCPO 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 57% NDP 43% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 78% PCPO 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 78% PCPO 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 87% PCPO 13% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 85% PCPO 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | London—Fanshawe



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 50.1% 55.7% 47.1% 43% ± 9% PCPO 22.8% 29.8% 32.8% 38% ± 9% OLP 20.2% 8.4% 10.4% 12% ± 5% GPO 4.2% 4.5% 3.5% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 2% ± 2%