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Ontario

London—Fanshawe


MPP: Armstrong, Teresa (NDP)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Likely NDP
London—Fanshawe 42% ± 9%▼ NDP 33% ± 8% PCPO 14% ± 5% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO 3% ± 2% NBPO NDP 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% London—Fanshawe 93%▼ NDP 7%▲ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | London—Fanshawe

OLP 14% ± 5% PCPO 33% ± 8% NDP 42% ± 9% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | London—Fanshawe 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | London—Fanshawe

OLP <1% PCPO 7% NDP 93% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | London—Fanshawe



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 50.1% 55.7% 47.1% 42% ± 9% PCPO 22.8% 29.8% 32.8% 33% ± 8% OLP 20.2% 8.4% 10.4% 14% ± 5% GPO 4.2% 4.5% 3.5% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1% ± 2%