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Ontario

London—Fanshawe


MPP: Armstrong, Teresa (NDP)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Likely NDP
London—Fanshawe 42% ± 9% NDP 34% ± 9%▼ PCPO 14% ± 5%▲ OLP 5% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% London—Fanshawe 92%▲ NDP 8%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | London—Fanshawe

OLP 14% ± 5% PCPO 34% ± 9% NDP 42% ± 9% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | London—Fanshawe 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 NDP 45% PCPO 33% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 45% PCPO 33% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 45% PCPO 33% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 46% PCPO 33% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 48% PCPO 29% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 48% PCPO 29% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 48% PCPO 30% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 47% PCPO 31% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 49% PCPO 29% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 48% PCPO 30% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 47% PCPO 32% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 47% PCPO 32% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 47% PCPO 32% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 43% PCPO 31% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 43% PCPO 33% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 42% PCPO 33% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 42% PCPO 34% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 40% PCPO 36% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 41% PCPO 35% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 41% PCPO 35% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 42% PCPO 36% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 NDP 42% PCPO 34% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | London—Fanshawe

OLP <1% PCPO 8% NDP 92% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 NDP 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 99% PCPO 1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 99% PCPO 1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 99% PCPO 1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 93% PCPO 7% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 96% PCPO 4% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 93% PCPO 7% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 92% PCPO 8% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 77% PCPO 23% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 85% PCPO 15% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 84% PCPO 16% OLP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 NDP 92% PCPO 8% OLP <1% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | London—Fanshawe



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 50.1% 55.7% 47.1% 42% ± 9% PCPO 22.8% 29.8% 32.8% 34% ± 9% OLP 20.2% 8.4% 10.4% 14% ± 5% GPO 4.2% 4.5% 3.5% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1% ± 1%