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Ontario

Kitchener South—Hespeler


MPP: Dixon, Jess (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Safe PCPO
Kitchener South—Hespeler 40% ± 9%▲ PCPO 21% ± 7% NDP 19% ± 6% OLP 16% ± 7%▼ GPO 3% ± 3% NBPO PCPO 2022 40.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener South—Hespeler >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kitchener South—Hespeler

OLP 19% ± 6% PCPO 40% ± 9% NDP 21% ± 7% GPO 16% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener South—Hespeler 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 38% OLP 25% NDP 22% GPO 9% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 38% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 38% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 38% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 38% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 37% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 8% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 37% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 37% NDP 25% OLP 24% GPO 8% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 37% NDP 25% OLP 24% GPO 8% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 38% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 8% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 38% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 8% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 38% NDP 24% OLP 23% GPO 8% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 39% NDP 25% OLP 24% GPO 9% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 40% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 8% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 39% NDP 26% OLP 24% GPO 8% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 39% OLP 25% NDP 24% GPO 9% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 39% OLP 25% NDP 24% GPO 9% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 38% OLP 24% NDP 24% GPO 11% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 37% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 12% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 37% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 12% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 36% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 12% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 37% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 12% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 37% NDP 25% OLP 23% GPO 12% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 37% NDP 24% OLP 23% GPO 12% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 37% NDP 24% OLP 23% GPO 12% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 36% NDP 29% OLP 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 37% NDP 28% OLP 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 37% NDP 28% OLP 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 35% NDP 30% OLP 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 35% NDP 29% OLP 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 38% NDP 29% OLP 18% GPO 11% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 40% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 11% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 40% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 11% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 39% NDP 25% OLP 17% GPO 13% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 39% NDP 25% OLP 17% GPO 13% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 39% NDP 25% OLP 17% GPO 12% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 39% NDP 25% OLP 17% GPO 12% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 35% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 15% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 36% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 14% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 37% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 13% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 37% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 13% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 35% NDP 28% OLP 18% GPO 14% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 37% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 13% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 38% NDP 26% GPO 16% OLP 16% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 37% NDP 25% OLP 17% GPO 16% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 37% NDP 25% OLP 18% GPO 16% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 35% NDP 22% OLP 22% GPO 16% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 37% NDP 21% OLP 21% GPO 17% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 37% NDP 22% OLP 20% GPO 16% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 38% NDP 22% OLP 19% GPO 16% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 39% NDP 22% OLP 18% GPO 17% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 40% NDP 20% OLP 18% GPO 17% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 39% NDP 21% OLP 19% GPO 17% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 40% NDP 21% OLP 19% GPO 16% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Kitchener South—Hespeler

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 98% NDP 1% OLP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 93% NDP 7% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 96% NDP 4% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 97% NDP 3% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 87% NDP 13% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 95% NDP 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Kitchener South—Hespeler



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.1% 38.9% 40.0% 40% ± 9% NDP 23.3% 37.1% 26.5% 21% ± 7% OLP 36.5% 14.9% 16.5% 19% ± 6% GPO 6.3% 7.5% 11.2% 16% ± 7% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 3% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1% ± 2%