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Ontario

Kitchener South—Hespeler


MPP elect: Jess Dixon (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Kitchener South—Hespeler


PC Party of Ontario Jess Dixon
Liberal Party Ismail Mohamed
Ontario NDP Jeff Donkersgoed
Green Party Jessica Riley
New Blue Party John Soule

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Kitchener South—Hespeler 45% ± 0%▼ PCPO 26% ± 0%▲ OLP 18% ± 0%▲ NDP 9% ± 0%▼ GPO PCPO 2022 40.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener South—Hespeler >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kitchener South—Hespeler

OLP 26% ± 0% PCPO 45% ± 0% NDP 18% ± 0% GPO 9% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener South—Hespeler 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 40% NDP 22% OLP 19% GPO 15% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 41% NDP 21% OLP 19% GPO 16% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 43% NDP 21% OLP 19% GPO 15% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 44% NDP 21% OLP 19% GPO 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 43% NDP 21% OLP 19% GPO 14% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 44% OLP 20% NDP 20% GPO 15% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 44% OLP 20% NDP 20% GPO 15% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 45% NDP 19% OLP 19% GPO 15% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 44% NDP 19% OLP 19% GPO 15% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 44% NDP 20% OLP 19% GPO 15% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 44% NDP 20% OLP 19% GPO 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 44% NDP 20% OLP 19% GPO 15% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 45% OLP 20% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 45% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 45% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 45% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 46% OLP 20% NDP 17% GPO 15% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 46% OLP 20% NDP 17% GPO 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 45% OLP 21% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 45% OLP 21% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 45% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 46% OLP 20% NDP 17% GPO 15% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 46% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 46% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 46% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 46% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 46% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 46% OLP 20% NDP 17% GPO 15% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 46% OLP 20% NDP 17% GPO 14% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 45% OLP 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Kitchener South—Hespeler

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Kitchener South—Hespeler



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.1% 38.9% 40.0% 45% ± 0% NDP 23.3% 37.1% 26.5% 18% ± 0% OLP 36.5% 14.9% 16.5% 26% ± 0% GPO 6.3% 7.5% 11.2% 9% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 2% ± 0%