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Ontario

London West


MPP: Sattler, Peggy (NDP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up PCPO/NDP
London West 39% ± 9% NDP 36% ± 9% PCPO 15% ± 5% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 45.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% London West 70% NDP 30% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | London West

OLP 15% ± 5% PCPO 36% ± 9% NDP 39% ± 9% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | London West 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 39% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 41% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 39% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 39% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 39% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 39% PCPO 30% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 39% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 39% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 39% PCPO 32% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 38% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 38% PCPO 32% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 39% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 37% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 37% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 36% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 36% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 36% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 36% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 36% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 39% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 38% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 38% PCPO 32% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 45% PCPO 34% OLP 12% GPO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 46% PCPO 33% OLP 12% GPO 3% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 43% PCPO 34% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 43% PCPO 34% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 43% PCPO 34% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 44% PCPO 34% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 46% PCPO 30% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 46% PCPO 31% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 46% PCPO 31% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 45% PCPO 32% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 47% PCPO 30% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 46% PCPO 31% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 45% PCPO 33% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 45% PCPO 33% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 44% PCPO 33% OLP 14% GPO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 41% PCPO 32% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 41% PCPO 34% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 40% PCPO 35% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 38% PCPO 37% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 39% PCPO 36% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 39% PCPO 36% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | London West

OLP <1% PCPO 30% NDP 70% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 96% PCPO 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 88% PCPO 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 88% PCPO 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 85% PCPO 15% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 85% PCPO 15% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 85% PCPO 15% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 84% PCPO 16% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 82% PCPO 18% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 59% PCPO 41% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 74% PCPO 26% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 70% PCPO 30% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 70% PCPO 30% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | London West



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 40.2% 55.3% 45.1% 39% ± 9% PCPO 29.9% 29.0% 33.9% 36% ± 9% OLP 23.7% 9.9% 12.2% 15% ± 5% GPO 4.1% 3.8% 3.4% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 1%