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Ontario

Southwestern Ontario, 23 districts


Latest update: August 31, 2025
Southwestern Ontario 47% ± 7%▲ PCPO 19% ± 4% OLP 18% ± 4%▼ NDP 9% ± 2%▼ GPO 3% ± 1% IND 338Canada Popular vote projection | August 31, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Southwestern Ontario, 23 districts 15 [15-18] PCPO 5 [2-5] NDP 2 [2-2] GPO 1 [1-1] IND 0 [0-0] OLP 338Canada seat projection | August 31, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Southwestern Ontario

OLP 19% ± 4% PCPO 47% ± 7% NDP 18% ± 4% GPO 9% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Southwestern Ontario 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP GPO August 31, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 43% NDP 24% OLP 16% GPO 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 43% NDP 23% OLP 16% GPO 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 46% NDP 23% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 46% NDP 23% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 46% NDP 23% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 46% NDP 22% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 46% NDP 22% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 47% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 47% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 47% NDP 22% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 47% NDP 22% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 47% NDP 22% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 47% NDP 21% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 47% NDP 20% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 47% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 47% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 48% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 49% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 49% NDP 21% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 42% NDP 21% OLP 19% GPO 10% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 43% NDP 21% OLP 19% GPO 10% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 43% NDP 21% OLP 20% GPO 10% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PCPO 43% NDP 20% OLP 19% GPO 10% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PCPO 47% OLP 19% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-08-31

Seat projection | Southwestern Ontario

PCPO 15 [15-18] NDP 5 [2-5] GPO 2 [2-2] IND 1 [1-1] Seat projection | Southwestern Ontario 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 PCPO NDP GPO August 31, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 15 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 16 NDP 4 GPO 2 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 17 NDP 3 GPO 2 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 17 NDP 3 GPO 2 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 16 NDP 4 GPO 2 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 18 NDP 2 GPO 2 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 18 NDP 2 GPO 2 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 18 NDP 2 GPO 2 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 18 NDP 2 GPO 2 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 18 NDP 2 GPO 2 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 18 NDP 2 GPO 2 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 18 NDP 2 GPO 2 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 18 NDP 2 GPO 2 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 19 GPO 2 NDP 1 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 19 GPO 2 NDP 1 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 15 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 17 NDP 4 GPO 2 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 17 NDP 4 GPO 2 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 15 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 16 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 16 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 16 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 16 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 16 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 16 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 16 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 16 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 17 NDP 4 GPO 2 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 17 NDP 4 GPO 2 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 15 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 15 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 15 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PCPO 15 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PCPO 15 NDP 5 GPO 2 2025-08-31

Seat projection | Southwestern Ontario


Latest update: August 31, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
14 1 0 0 15 15
0 1 1 3 5 6
2 0 0 0 2 1
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Southwestern Ontario


Latest update: August 31, 2025
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
013 Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO
014 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO
016 Cambridge Likely PCPO
018 Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO
026 Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO
027 Essex Safe PCPO
033 Guelph Safe GPO
034 Haldimand—Norfolk IND likely
042 Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO
048 Kitchener Centre Safe GPO
049 Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO
050 Kitchener—Conestoga Safe PCPO
051 Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO
054 London North Centre Leaning NDP
055 London West Toss up PCPO/NDP
056 London—Fanshawe Toss up PCPO/NDP
084 Oxford Safe PCPO
087 Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO
092 Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO
116 Waterloo Likely NDP
117 Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO
120 Windsor West Toss up PCPO/NDP
121 Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO