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Ontario

Southwestern Ontario, 23 districts



Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
9 6 0 0 15 15
0 4 1 0 5 6
2 0 0 0 2 1
0 0 0 0 0 0




Projection | Southwestern Ontario


Latest update: December 1, 2023
Southwestern Ontario 40% ± 6%▲ 27% ± 6%▼ 13% ± 3%▼ 11% ± 3%▲ 3% ± 1%▼ 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 1, 2023
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Southwestern Ontario, 23 districts 15 [15-16] 5▼ [4-5] 2▲ [2-2] 1 [0-1] IND 338Canada seat projection | December 1, 2023
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Southwestern Ontario

OLP 13% ± 3% PCPO 40% ± 6% NDP 27% ± 6% GPO 11% ± 3% NBPO 3% ± 1% Popular vote projection % | Southwestern Ontario 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Seat projection | Southwestern Ontario

PCPO 15 [15-16] NDP 5 [4-5] GPO 2 [2-2] IND 1 [0-1] Seat projection | Southwestern Ontario 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 PCPO NDP GPO

List of electoral districts


Latest update: December 1, 2023
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
013 Brantford—Brant Likely PCPO
014 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO
016 Cambridge Likely PCPO
018 Chatham-Kent—Leamington Likely PCPO
026 Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO
027 Essex Safe PCPO
033 Guelph Safe GPO
034 Haldimand—Norfolk IND leaning
042 Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO
048 Kitchener Centre Safe GPO
049 Kitchener South—Hespeler Likely PCPO
050 Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO
051 Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO
054 London North Centre Likely NDP
055 London West Likely NDP
056 London—Fanshawe Likely NDP
084 Oxford Safe PCPO
087 Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO
092 Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO
116 Waterloo Likely NDP
117 Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO
120 Windsor West Leaning NDP
121 Windsor—Tecumseh Likely PCPO