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Southwestern Ontario

23 provincial districts
Latest update: February 18, 2026

Southwestern Ontario 37% 50% 44% ± 7% PC 17% 26% 21% ± 5% NDP 14% 23% 19% ± 5% OLP 7% 12% 9% ± 3% GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Southwestern Ontario, 23 federal districts 15 [15-15] PC 5 [5-5] NDP 2 [2-2] GPO 1  [1-1] IND 0  [0-0] OLP 338Canada seat projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. Seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. Brackets indicate the current range of outcomes. Values near the mean are more likely than extremes.

Ontario Projection | Southwestern Ontario

Ontario Seat Projection | Southwestern Ontario



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List of districts | Southwestern Ontario
Latest update: February 18, 2026

Electoral districts
Current party
Projection
Will Bouma
PC Safe PCPO
PC Likely PCPO
Brian Riddell
PC Likely PCPO
PC Safe PCPO
PC Safe PCPO
Anthony Leardi
PC Safe PCPO
Mike Schreiner
G Safe GPO
Bobbi Ann Brady
I IND safe
Lisa Thompson
PC Safe PCPO
Aislinn Clancy
G Safe GPO
PC Safe PCPO
Mike Harris
PC Likely PCPO
Stephen Pinsonneault
PC Safe PCPO
Terence Kernaghan
N Likely NDP
Peggy Sattler
N Likely NDP
Teresa Armstrong
N Likely NDP
Ernie Hardeman
PC Safe PCPO
Matthew Rae
PC Safe PCPO
Bob Bailey
PC Safe PCPO
Catherine Fife
N Safe NDP
Joseph Racinsky
PC Safe PCPO
Lisa Gretzky
N Likely NDP
Andrew Dowie
PC Safe PCPO