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Ontario

Waterloo


MPP: Fife, Catherine (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Toss up PCPO/NDP

Candidates | Waterloo


PC Party of Ontario Peter Turkington
Liberal Party Clayton Moore
Ontario NDP Catherine Fife
Green Party Shefaza Esmail
New Blue Party Suja Biber
Ontario Party Chris Martin
Electoral Reform Party Peter House
Libertarian Party James Schulz

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Waterloo 37% ± 9% NDP 34% ± 9% PCPO 18% ± 6% OLP 9% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Waterloo 68% NDP 32% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Waterloo

OLP 18% ± 6% PCPO 34% ± 9% NDP 37% ± 9% GPO 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Waterloo 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 41% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Waterloo

OLP <1% PCPO 32% NDP 68% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 96% PCPO 4% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 95% PCPO 5% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 86% PCPO 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 89% PCPO 11% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 77% PCPO 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 81% PCPO 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 85% PCPO 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 81% PCPO 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 67% PCPO 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 66% PCPO 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 66% PCPO 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 77% PCPO 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 68% PCPO 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 68% PCPO 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Waterloo



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 36.7% 50.5% 45.9% 37% ± 9% PCPO 27.2% 31.4% 29.3% 34% ± 9% OLP 30.2% 12.2% 13.9% 18% ± 6% GPO 5.0% 4.8% 6.9% 9% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0% ± 1%