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Ontario

Waterloo


MPP: Fife, Catherine (NDP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Likely NDP
Waterloo 40% ± 9%▲ NDP 31% ± 8% PCPO 17% ± 6% OLP 10% ± 5% GPO NDP 2022 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Waterloo 94%▼ NDP 6%▲ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Waterloo

OLP 17% ± 6% PCPO 31% ± 8% NDP 40% ± 9% GPO 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Waterloo 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 33% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 7% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 35% PCPO 32% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 35% PCPO 33% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 35% PCPO 32% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 35% PCPO 32% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 21% GPO 7% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 21% GPO 7% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 33% PCPO 33% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 33% PCPO 32% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 10% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 10% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 10% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 18% GPO 10% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 18% GPO 10% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 33% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 10% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 33% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 10% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 33% PCPO 32% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 33% PCPO 32% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 36% PCPO 32% OLP 15% GPO 8% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 36% PCPO 33% OLP 15% GPO 8% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 36% PCPO 33% OLP 15% GPO 8% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 46% PCPO 29% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 46% PCPO 29% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 44% PCPO 29% OLP 15% GPO 8% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 15% GPO 8% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 15% GPO 8% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 44% PCPO 29% OLP 14% GPO 8% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 46% PCPO 25% OLP 14% GPO 10% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 46% PCPO 26% OLP 14% GPO 10% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 46% PCPO 27% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 45% PCPO 27% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 47% PCPO 25% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 46% PCPO 26% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 45% PCPO 28% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 45% PCPO 28% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 45% PCPO 28% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 41% PCPO 27% OLP 19% GPO 9% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 39% PCPO 28% OLP 19% GPO 10% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 41% PCPO 29% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 40% PCPO 29% OLP 18% GPO 10% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 40% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 38% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 39% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 39% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Waterloo

OLP <1% PCPO 6% NDP 94% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 56% PCPO 44% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 68% PCPO 32% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 63% PCPO 37% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 61% PCPO 39% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 63% PCPO 37% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 65% PCPO 35% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 64% PCPO 36% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 66% PCPO 34% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 60% PCPO 40% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 57% PCPO 43% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 54% PCPO 46% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 54% PCPO 46% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 61% PCPO 39% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 68% PCPO 32% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 57% PCPO 43% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 57% PCPO 43% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 57% PCPO 43% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 70% PCPO 30% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 70% PCPO 30% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 72% PCPO 28% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 65% PCPO 35% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 65% PCPO 35% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 63% PCPO 37% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 63% PCPO 37% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 72% PCPO 28% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 60% PCPO 40% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 59% PCPO 41% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 77% PCPO 23% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 74% PCPO 26% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 68% PCPO 32% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 96% PCPO 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Waterloo



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 36.7% 50.5% 45.9% 40% ± 9% PCPO 27.2% 31.4% 29.3% 31% ± 8% OLP 30.2% 12.2% 13.9% 17% ± 6% GPO 5.0% 4.8% 6.9% 10% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0% ± 1%