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Ontario

Waterloo


MPP elect: Catherine Fife (NDP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe NDP

Candidates | Waterloo


PC Party of Ontario Peter Turkington
Liberal Party Clayton Moore
Ontario NDP Catherine Fife
Green Party Shefaza Esmail
New Blue Party Suja Biber
Ontario Party Chris Martin
Electoral Reform Party Peter House
Libertarian Party James Schulz

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Waterloo 50% ± 0%▲ NDP 27% ± 0%▼ PCPO 16% ± 0%▼ OLP 4% ± 0%▼ GPO NDP 2022 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Waterloo >99%▲ NDP <1%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Waterloo

OLP 16% ± 0% PCPO 27% ± 0% NDP 50% ± 0% GPO 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Waterloo 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 41% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 50% PCPO 27% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Waterloo

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 96% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 95% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 88% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 86% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 89% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 82% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 82% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 77% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 79% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 81% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 85% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 81% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 75% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 69% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 69% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 67% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 66% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 66% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 77% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 75% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 68% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 68% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 70% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 71% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 72% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 72% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 73% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 63% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 62% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Waterloo



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 36.7% 50.5% 45.9% 50% ± 0% PCPO 27.2% 31.4% 29.3% 27% ± 0% OLP 30.2% 12.2% 13.9% 16% ± 0% GPO 5.0% 4.8% 6.9% 4% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1% ± 0% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1% ± 0%