logo
Ontario

Waterloo


MPP : Catherine Fife (NDP)
Latest projection: June 7, 2025
Safe NDP

Recent electoral history | Waterloo


2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 36.7% 50.5% 45.9% 50% ± 9% PCPO 27.2% 31.4% 29.3% 28% ± 8% OLP 30.2% 12.2% 13.9% 16% ± 6% GPO 5.0% 4.8% 6.9% 4% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1% ± 1%

Waterloo 50% ± 9% NDP 28% ± 8%▲ PCPO 16% ± 6% OLP 4% ± 2% GPO NDP 2022 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 7, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Waterloo >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | June 7, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Waterloo

OLP 16% ± 6% PCPO 28% ± 8% NDP 50% ± 9% GPO 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Waterloo 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 7, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 41% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 50% PCPO 27% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 50% PCPO 28% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2025-06-07

Odds of winning | Waterloo

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 7, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 96% PCPO 4% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 95% PCPO 5% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 86% PCPO 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 89% PCPO 11% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 77% PCPO 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 81% PCPO 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 85% PCPO 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 81% PCPO 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 67% PCPO 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 66% PCPO 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 66% PCPO 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 77% PCPO 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 68% PCPO 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 68% PCPO 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 70% PCPO 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 71% PCPO 29% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 72% PCPO 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 72% PCPO 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 73% PCPO 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 63% PCPO 37% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 62% PCPO 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07