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Recent electoral history | Waterloo


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 52% ± 9% 50.5% 45.9% 50.2% PC 27% ± 8% 31.4% 29.3% 27.4% OLP 14% ± 6% 12.2% 13.9% 15.7% GPO 3% ± 2% 4.8% 6.9% 3.6% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 2.6% 1.1% ONP 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.0%

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338Canada Waterloo projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Waterloo 43% 62% 52% ± 9% NDP 19% 35% 27% ± 8% PC 9% 20% 14% ± 6% OLP NDP 2025 50.23% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Waterloo >99% NDP <1% PC <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Waterloo

OLP 14% ± 6% PC 27% ± 8% NDP 52% ± 9% GPO 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Waterloo 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 41% PC 31% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% PC 31% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 40% PC 33% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 40% PC 33% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 40% PC 33% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 38% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 38% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 37% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 37% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 37% PC 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 37% PC 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 37% PC 35% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 38% PC 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 38% PC 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 37% PC 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 37% PC 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 37% PC 34% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 38% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 38% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 38% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 38% PC 34% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 37% PC 35% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 37% PC 35% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 50% PC 27% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 50% PC 28% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 50% PC 28% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 49% PC 28% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 45% PC 32% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 47% PC 31% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 49% PC 29% OLP 15% GPO 3% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 52% PC 28% OLP 14% GPO 3% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 52% PC 27% OLP 14% GPO 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 52% PC 27% OLP 14% GPO 3% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Waterloo

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 96% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 95% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 88% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 86% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 89% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 82% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 82% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 77% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 79% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 81% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 85% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 81% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 75% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 69% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 69% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 67% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 66% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 66% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 77% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 75% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 68% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 68% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 70% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 71% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 72% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 72% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 73% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 63% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 62% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 99% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2026-02-18