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Recent electoral history | Burlington


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 45% ± 9% 40.4% 42.5% 43.1% OLP 42% ± 9% 24.6% 29.4% 43.1% NDP 8% ± 4% 28.6% 17.6% 8.0% GPO 3% ± 2% 4.5% 6.7% 3.4% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 2.5% 1.3%

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338Canada Burlington projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Burlington 36% 54% 45% ± 9% PC 33% 51% 42% ± 9% OLP 4% 11% 8% ± 4% NDP PC 2025 43.14% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Burlington 69%▼ PC 31%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Burlington

OLP 42% ± 9% PC 45% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Burlington 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 42% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 43% OLP 31% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 45% OLP 30% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 45% OLP 30% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 45% OLP 30% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 46% OLP 30% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 46% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 43% OLP 32% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 44% OLP 32% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 44% OLP 32% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 45% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 45% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 43% OLP 34% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 43% OLP 34% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 45% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 45% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 43% OLP 43% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 43% OLP 43% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 43% OLP 43% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 44% OLP 42% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 47% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 3% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 47% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 3% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 47% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 3% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 45% OLP 41% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 45% OLP 41% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 45% OLP 42% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Burlington

OLP 31% PC 69% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 53% OLP 47% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 75% OLP 25% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 72% OLP 28% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 69% OLP 31% NDP <1% 2026-02-18