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Ontario

Burlington


MPP: Pierre, Natalie (PCPO)

Latest projection: October 9, 2024
Likely PCPO
Burlington 42% ± 9%▼ PCPO 30% ± 8%▲ OLP 16% ± 6% NDP 9% ± 5% GPO PCPO 2022 42.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Burlington 99%▼ PCPO 1%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | October 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Burlington

OLP 30% ± 8% PCPO 42% ± 9% NDP 16% ± 6% GPO 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Burlington 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO October 9, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 38% PCPO 38% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 36% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 36% PCPO 36% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 37% PCPO 36% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 38% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 38% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 37% OLP 36% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 38% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 38% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 37% OLP 34% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 37% OLP 34% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 36% OLP 34% NDP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 37% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 37% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 37% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 37% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 39% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 43% OLP 29% NDP 18% GPO 7% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 42% OLP 29% NDP 18% GPO 7% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 17% GPO 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 38% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 10% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 38% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 10% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 39% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 39% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 37% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 39% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 42% OLP 29% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 40% OLP 32% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 38% OLP 34% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 40% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 9% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 42% OLP 29% NDP 17% GPO 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 44% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 9% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 16% GPO 9% 2024-10-09

Odds of winning | Burlington

OLP 1% PCPO 99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO October 9, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 50% PCPO 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 54% OLP 46% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 59% OLP 41% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 62% OLP 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 54% OLP 46% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 50% PCPO 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 55% PCPO 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 63% OLP 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 63% OLP 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 61% OLP 39% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 66% OLP 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 67% OLP 33% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 68% OLP 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 85% OLP 15% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 81% OLP 19% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09

Recent electoral history | Burlington



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 36.9% 40.4% 42.5% 42% ± 9% OLP 43.4% 24.6% 29.4% 30% ± 8% NDP 14.4% 28.6% 17.6% 16% ± 6% GPO 4.1% 4.5% 6.7% 9% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1%