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Ontario

Burlington


MPP: Pierre, Natalie (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Burlington


PC Party of Ontario Natalie Pierre
Liberal Party Andrea Grebenc
Ontario NDP Megan Beauchemin
Green Party Kyle Hutton
New Blue Party James Chilli Chillingworth
None of the Above Party David Crombie

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Burlington 44% ± 9% PCPO 33% ± 8%▼ OLP 13% ± 5% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 42.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Burlington 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Burlington

OLP 33% ± 8% PCPO 44% ± 9% NDP 13% ± 5% GPO 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Burlington 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 45% OLP 30% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 45% OLP 30% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 45% OLP 30% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 46% OLP 30% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 45% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 45% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 43% OLP 34% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 43% OLP 34% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Burlington

OLP 3% PCPO 97% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Burlington



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 36.9% 40.4% 42.5% 44% ± 9% OLP 43.4% 24.6% 29.4% 33% ± 8% NDP 14.4% 28.6% 17.6% 13% ± 5% GPO 4.1% 4.5% 6.7% 8% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 1% ± 1%