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Ontario

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock


MPP elect: Laurie Scott (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock


PC Party of Ontario Laurie Scott
Liberal Party Alison Bennie
Ontario NDP Barbara Doyle
Green Party Tom Regina
New Blue Party Jacquie Barker
Ontario Party Brian Kerr
Freedom Party Bill Denby
Libertarian Party Zachary Tisdale
Independent Gene Balfour

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 52% ± 0%▼ PCPO 23% ± 0%▲ OLP 14% ± 0%▲ NDP 5% ± 0%▼ GPO PCPO 2022 52.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

OLP 23% ± 0% PCPO 52% ± 0% NDP 14% ± 0% GPO 5% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 53% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 53% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 57% OLP 15% NDP 15% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 57% OLP 15% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 56% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 57% OLP 16% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 57% OLP 16% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 57% OLP 16% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 57% OLP 16% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 57% OLP 16% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 58% OLP 17% NDP 12% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 59% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 59% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 57% OLP 17% NDP 12% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 58% OLP 17% NDP 12% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 58% OLP 17% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 59% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 58% OLP 17% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 59% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 59% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 52% OLP 23% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 40.3% 56.7% 52.8% 52% ± 0% NDP 20.1% 26.5% 15.8% 14% ± 0% OLP 35.3% 9.9% 13.6% 23% ± 0% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 2% ± 0% GPO 4.3% 4.5% 7.1% 5% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 2% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 0%