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Ontario

Niagara Centre


MPP: Burch, Jeff (NDP)

Latest projection: October 9, 2024
Leaning PCPO
Niagara Centre 38% ± 9%▼ PCPO 33% ± 8%▲ NDP 18% ± 6% OLP 6% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 39.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Centre 81%▼ PCPO 19%▲ NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | October 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Niagara Centre

OLP 18% ± 6% PCPO 38% ± 9% NDP 33% ± 8% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Niagara Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO October 9, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 39% NDP 29% OLP 20% GPO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 38% NDP 30% OLP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 38% NDP 30% OLP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 38% NDP 30% OLP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 38% NDP 30% OLP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 37% NDP 30% OLP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 37% NDP 30% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 37% NDP 30% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 37% NDP 30% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 38% NDP 30% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 38% NDP 30% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 38% NDP 29% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 40% NDP 30% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 40% NDP 30% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 39% NDP 31% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 38% NDP 34% OLP 19% GPO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 38% NDP 34% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 18% GPO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 18% GPO 8% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 18% GPO 8% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 18% GPO 8% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 37% NDP 35% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 37% NDP 35% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 39% NDP 35% OLP 14% GPO 8% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 40% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 40% PCPO 37% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 38% NDP 38% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 38% NDP 38% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 38% NDP 38% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 38% PCPO 37% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 41% PCPO 34% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 41% PCPO 34% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 40% PCPO 35% OLP 14% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 40% PCPO 35% OLP 14% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 14% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 40% PCPO 35% OLP 14% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 40% PCPO 37% OLP 13% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 39% PCPO 37% OLP 14% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 39% PCPO 37% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 35% PCPO 35% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 36% NDP 33% OLP 20% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 19% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 37% NDP 34% OLP 19% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 38% NDP 34% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 39% NDP 32% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 38% NDP 33% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2024-10-09

Odds of winning | Niagara Centre

OLP <1% PCPO 81% NDP 19% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO October 9, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 96% NDP 4% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 89% NDP 11% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 91% NDP 9% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 93% NDP 7% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 94% NDP 6% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 95% NDP 5% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 95% NDP 5% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 95% NDP 5% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 94% NDP 6% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 74% NDP 26% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 75% NDP 25% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 75% NDP 25% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 66% NDP 34% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 61% NDP 39% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 62% NDP 38% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 59% NDP 41% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 59% NDP 41% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 57% NDP 43% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 71% NDP 29% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 74% NDP 26% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 70% PCPO 30% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 68% PCPO 32% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 51% NDP 49% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 51% NDP 49% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 51% NDP 49% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 88% PCPO 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 82% PCPO 18% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 78% PCPO 22% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 84% PCPO 16% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 66% PCPO 34% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 69% PCPO 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 68% NDP 32% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 61% NDP 39% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 68% NDP 32% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 73% NDP 27% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 90% NDP 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 81% NDP 19% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09

Recent electoral history | Niagara Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 47.9% 44.3% 39.7% 33% ± 8% PCPO 26.6% 37.5% 37.6% 38% ± 9% OLP 20.4% 11.8% 13.3% 18% ± 6% GPO 4.0% 3.7% 4.5% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2% ± 2%