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Ontario

Niagara Centre


MPP: Burch, Jeff (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Niagara Centre


PC Party of Ontario Bill Steele
Liberal Party Damien O'Brien
Ontario NDP Jeff Burch
Green Party Natashia Bergen
New Blue Party Jimmy Jackson
Ontario Party Darryl Weinberg
Alliance Angela Browne

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Niagara Centre 42% ± 9% PCPO 33% ± 9% NDP 17% ± 6% OLP 6% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 39.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Centre 93%▲ PCPO 7%▼ NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Niagara Centre

OLP 17% ± 6% PCPO 42% ± 9% NDP 33% ± 9% GPO 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Niagara Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 41% NDP 34% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 42% NDP 33% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 44% NDP 33% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 43% NDP 34% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 42% NDP 34% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 43% NDP 33% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 43% NDP 33% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 44% NDP 32% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 43% NDP 33% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 42% NDP 33% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 42% NDP 34% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 43% NDP 33% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 43% NDP 33% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 43% NDP 32% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 43% NDP 32% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 43% NDP 32% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 42% NDP 33% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 42% NDP 33% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 41% NDP 34% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 41% NDP 34% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 42% NDP 33% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 42% NDP 33% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Niagara Centre

OLP <1% PCPO 93% NDP 7% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 91% NDP 9% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 97% NDP 3% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 93% NDP 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 96% NDP 4% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 96% NDP 4% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 97% NDP 3% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 97% NDP 3% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 94% NDP 6% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 94% NDP 6% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 96% NDP 4% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 97% NDP 3% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 98% NDP 2% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 98% NDP 2% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 94% NDP 6% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 95% NDP 5% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 93% NDP 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Niagara Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 47.9% 44.3% 39.7% 33% ± 9% PCPO 26.6% 37.5% 37.6% 42% ± 9% OLP 20.4% 11.8% 13.3% 17% ± 6% GPO 4.0% 3.7% 4.5% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1% ± 1%