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Ontario

Hamilton Mountain


MPP elect: Monica Ciriello (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Hamilton Mountain


PC Party of Ontario Monica Ciriello
Liberal Party Dawn Danko
Ontario NDP Kojo Damptey
Green Party Joshua Czerniga
New Blue Party Layla Marie-Angela Protopapa
Ontario Party Bing Wong
None of the Above Party Dan Preston
Independent Ejaz Butt

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Hamilton Mountain 36% ± 0%▲ PCPO 31% ± 0%▲ OLP 26% ± 0%▼ NDP 4% ± 0%▼ GPO NDP 2022 45.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Mountain 92%▲ PCPO 8%▲ OLP <1%▼ NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hamilton Mountain

OLP 31% ± 0% PCPO 36% ± 0% NDP 26% ± 0% GPO 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Mountain 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 38% PCPO 33% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 38% PCPO 33% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 18% GPO 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 36% PCPO 36% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 36% PCPO 36% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 36% NDP 36% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 36% PCPO 36% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 36% PCPO 36% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 35% NDP 35% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 36% PCPO 35% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 36% PCPO 35% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Hamilton Mountain

OLP 8% PCPO 92% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 66% PCPO 34% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 64% PCPO 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 68% PCPO 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 56% PCPO 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 56% PCPO 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 51% NDP 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 51% PCPO 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 62% PCPO 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 67% PCPO 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 62% PCPO 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 54% PCPO 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 53% NDP 47% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 53% NDP 47% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 65% PCPO 35% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 63% PCPO 37% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 64% PCPO 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 74% PCPO 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 73% PCPO 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 66% PCPO 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 67% PCPO 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 68% PCPO 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 71% PCPO 29% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 61% PCPO 39% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 60% PCPO 40% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Mountain



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 48.6% 54.6% 45.0% 26% ± 0% PCPO 17.6% 28.8% 29.9% 36% ± 0% OLP 28.1% 9.2% 15.5% 31% ± 0% GPO 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 4% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 1% ± 0% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 0%