logo
logo
Ontario

Thunder Bay—Superior North


MPP: Vaugeois, Lise (NDP)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Leaning OLP
Thunder Bay—Superior North 36% ± 10% OLP 31% ± 9% PCPO 25% ± 8% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 34.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Superior North 79%▼ OLP 20%▲ PCPO 1% NDP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Superior North

OLP 36% ± 10% PCPO 31% ± 9% NDP 25% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Superior North 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 58% NDP 19% PCPO 16% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 55% NDP 24% PCPO 15% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 54% NDP 25% PCPO 15% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 54% NDP 25% PCPO 15% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 54% NDP 25% PCPO 14% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 54% NDP 25% PCPO 14% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 54% NDP 25% PCPO 14% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 55% NDP 25% PCPO 14% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 51% NDP 27% PCPO 16% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 50% NDP 27% PCPO 17% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 50% NDP 27% PCPO 17% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 50% NDP 27% PCPO 17% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 49% NDP 27% PCPO 17% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 49% NDP 27% PCPO 17% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 49% NDP 27% PCPO 17% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 49% NDP 27% PCPO 17% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 45% NDP 29% PCPO 17% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 45% NDP 29% PCPO 17% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 44% NDP 30% PCPO 17% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 43% NDP 30% PCPO 17% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 43% NDP 30% PCPO 17% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 43% NDP 30% PCPO 18% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 44% NDP 30% PCPO 17% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 43% NDP 29% PCPO 17% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 43% NDP 29% PCPO 17% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 39% NDP 33% PCPO 18% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 39% NDP 32% PCPO 19% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 39% NDP 32% PCPO 19% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 39% NDP 32% PCPO 19% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 39% NDP 32% PCPO 19% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 38% NDP 33% PCPO 20% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 28% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 35% PCPO 31% OLP 28% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 32% PCPO 31% OLP 29% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 32% PCPO 31% OLP 30% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 32% PCPO 31% OLP 30% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 33% PCPO 31% OLP 29% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 35% OLP 29% PCPO 27% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 35% OLP 29% PCPO 28% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 34% OLP 29% PCPO 28% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 34% OLP 29% PCPO 29% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 35% OLP 30% PCPO 27% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 35% OLP 29% PCPO 28% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 34% PCPO 30% OLP 28% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 34% OLP 30% PCPO 29% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 33% OLP 31% PCPO 29% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 41% NDP 26% PCPO 26% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 39% PCPO 29% NDP 25% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 38% PCPO 29% NDP 26% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 37% PCPO 30% NDP 26% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 36% PCPO 31% NDP 26% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 36% PCPO 32% NDP 25% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 36% PCPO 31% NDP 25% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP 36% PCPO 31% NDP 25% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Superior North

OLP 79% PCPO 20% NDP 1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 82% NDP 18% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 86% NDP 14% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 86% NDP 14% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 86% NDP 14% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 86% NDP 14% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 80% NDP 20% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 73% PCPO 22% OLP 6% GPO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 68% PCPO 22% OLP 10% GPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 47% PCPO 33% OLP 20% GPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 44% PCPO 30% OLP 25% GPO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 45% PCPO 30% OLP 25% GPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 55% PCPO 28% OLP 17% GPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 80% OLP 14% PCPO 7% GPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 78% OLP 15% PCPO 7% GPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 74% OLP 15% PCPO 11% GPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 71% OLP 16% PCPO 13% GPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 76% OLP 20% PCPO 4% GPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 77% OLP 13% PCPO 10% GPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 68% PCPO 22% OLP 9% GPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 62% OLP 22% PCPO 17% GPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 55% OLP 29% PCPO 16% GPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 96% PCPO 3% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 92% PCPO 7% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 89% PCPO 9% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 80% PCPO 18% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 74% PCPO 26% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 81% PCPO 17% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP 79% PCPO 20% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Superior North



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 29.5% 37.1% 34.1% 25% ± 8% PCPO 7.2% 18.0% 30.9% 31% ± 9% OLP 56.0% 39.9% 28.3% 36% ± 10% GPO 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 4% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 2%