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Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Superior North


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 46% ± 11% 37.1% 34.1% 40.9% PC 28% ± 9% 18.0% 30.9% 33.8% OLP 22% ± 8% 39.9% 28.3% 21.2% GPO 1% ± 2% 2.8% 3.0% 1.6% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 1.3% 1.0% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%

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338Canada Thunder Bay—Superior North projection

Latest update: September 3, 2026

Thunder Bay—Superior North 35% 57% 46% ± 11% NDP 19% 37% 28% ± 9% PC 14% 30% 22% ± 8% OLP NDP 2025 40.91% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 3, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Superior North >99% NDP <1% PC <1% OLP Odds of winning | September 3, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Thunder Bay—Superior North

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Superior North