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Ontario

Thunder Bay—Superior North


MPP: Vaugeois, Lise (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP

Candidates | Thunder Bay—Superior North


PC Party of Ontario Rick Dumas
Liberal Party Brian Hamilton
Ontario NDP Lise Vaugeois
Green Party John Northey
New Blue Party Katherine Suutari
Northern Ontario Party Daniel K. Campbell
Independent Steve Hanssen

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Thunder Bay—Superior North 33% ± 9% PCPO 31% ± 9%▲ NDP 30% ± 9%▼ OLP 4% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 34.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Superior North 52%▲ PCPO 28%▲ NDP 20%▼ OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Superior North

OLP 30% ± 9% PCPO 33% ± 9% NDP 31% ± 9% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Superior North 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 35% PCPO 31% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 35% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 31% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 33% OLP 31% NDP 31% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 33% OLP 32% NDP 29% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 33% OLP 32% NDP 29% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 29% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 29% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 29% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 30% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 30% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 29% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 28% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 28% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 28% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 33% OLP 32% NDP 29% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 33% OLP 32% NDP 29% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 30% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 30% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 33% OLP 33% NDP 29% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 33% NDP 31% OLP 30% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Superior North

OLP 20% PCPO 52% NDP 28% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 68% PCPO 26% NDP 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 66% PCPO 28% NDP 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 50% OLP 46% NDP 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 55% OLP 22% NDP 22% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 50% OLP 27% NDP 24% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 53% OLP 32% NDP 15% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 54% OLP 32% NDP 15% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 62% OLP 26% NDP 13% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 60% OLP 27% NDP 13% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 56% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 59% OLP 21% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 59% OLP 25% NDP 16% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 59% OLP 30% NDP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 59% OLP 33% NDP 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 59% OLP 33% NDP 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 59% OLP 34% NDP 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 14% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 46% PCPO 37% NDP 17% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 45% PCPO 39% NDP 16% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 46% OLP 40% NDP 14% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 52% NDP 28% OLP 20% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Superior North



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 29.5% 37.1% 34.1% 31% ± 9% PCPO 7.2% 18.0% 30.9% 33% ± 9% OLP 56.0% 39.9% 28.3% 30% ± 9% GPO 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%