logo
Ontario

Thunder Bay—Superior North


MPP : Lise Vaugeois (NDP)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Leaning NDP

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Superior North


2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 29.5% 37.1% 34.1% 40% ± 10% PCPO 7.2% 18.0% 30.9% 34% ± 10% OLP 56.0% 39.9% 28.3% 21% ± 8% GPO 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%

Thunder Bay—Superior North 40% ± 10% NDP 34% ± 10% PCPO 21% ± 8% OLP NDP 2022 34.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Superior North 83%▼ NDP 17%▲ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Superior North

OLP 21% ± 8% PCPO 34% ± 10% NDP 40% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Superior North 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 35% PCPO 31% NDP 27% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 35% PCPO 32% NDP 27% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 27% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 31% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 33% OLP 31% NDP 31% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 33% OLP 32% NDP 29% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 33% OLP 32% NDP 29% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 29% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 29% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 29% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 30% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 30% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 29% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 28% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 28% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 28% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 33% OLP 32% NDP 29% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 33% OLP 32% NDP 29% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 30% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 30% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 33% OLP 33% NDP 29% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 33% NDP 31% OLP 30% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 33% NDP 32% OLP 30% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 33% NDP 32% OLP 30% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 33% NDP 32% OLP 30% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 33% NDP 32% OLP 30% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 33% NDP 32% OLP 30% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 33% NDP 32% OLP 30% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 33% NDP 31% OLP 30% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 41% PCPO 34% OLP 21% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 21% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 21% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Superior North

OLP <1% PCPO 17% NDP 83% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 68% PCPO 26% NDP 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 66% PCPO 28% NDP 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 50% OLP 46% NDP 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 55% OLP 22% NDP 22% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 50% OLP 27% NDP 24% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 53% OLP 32% NDP 15% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 54% OLP 32% NDP 15% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 62% OLP 26% NDP 13% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 60% OLP 27% NDP 13% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 56% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 59% OLP 21% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 59% OLP 25% NDP 16% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 59% OLP 30% NDP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 59% OLP 33% NDP 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 59% OLP 33% NDP 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 59% OLP 34% NDP 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 14% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 46% PCPO 37% NDP 17% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 45% PCPO 39% NDP 16% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 46% OLP 40% NDP 14% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 52% NDP 28% OLP 20% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 44% NDP 36% OLP 20% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 44% NDP 37% OLP 19% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 44% NDP 37% OLP 18% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 45% NDP 37% OLP 18% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 44% NDP 38% OLP 17% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 52% NDP 30% OLP 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 51% NDP 30% OLP 19% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 94% PCPO 6% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 84% PCPO 16% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP <1% 2025-06-27