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Ontario

Windsor West


MPP: Gretzky, Lisa (NDP)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Toss up PCPO/NDP
Windsor West 38% ± 8%▲ PCPO 36% ± 8%▼ NDP 16% ± 6% OLP 4% ± 3% ONP 4% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 42.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Windsor West 58%▲ PCPO 42%▼ NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Windsor West

OLP 16% ± 6% PCPO 38% ± 8% NDP 36% ± 8% ONP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Windsor West 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP ONP November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 34% PCPO 29% OLP 25% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 23% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 23% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 35% PCPO 30% OLP 23% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 24% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 24% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 24% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 24% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 25% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 35% PCPO 30% OLP 24% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 35% PCPO 30% OLP 24% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 34% PCPO 30% OLP 24% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 35% PCPO 31% OLP 25% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 36% PCPO 31% OLP 24% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 36% PCPO 30% OLP 25% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 35% PCPO 31% OLP 24% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 35% PCPO 31% OLP 24% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 35% PCPO 31% OLP 23% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 35% PCPO 30% OLP 23% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 35% PCPO 30% OLP 23% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 35% PCPO 30% OLP 23% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 35% PCPO 30% OLP 23% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 35% PCPO 30% OLP 23% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 34% PCPO 30% OLP 23% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 34% PCPO 30% OLP 23% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 36% PCPO 30% OLP 22% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 35% PCPO 31% OLP 22% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 35% PCPO 31% OLP 22% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 38% PCPO 30% OLP 19% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 38% PCPO 31% OLP 19% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 38% PCPO 31% OLP 19% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 42% PCPO 35% OLP 13% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 43% PCPO 35% OLP 13% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 40% PCPO 36% OLP 14% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 40% PCPO 35% OLP 14% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 40% PCPO 36% OLP 14% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 41% PCPO 35% OLP 14% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 43% PCPO 32% OLP 14% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 43% PCPO 32% OLP 14% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 43% PCPO 33% OLP 14% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 42% PCPO 33% OLP 14% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 44% PCPO 31% OLP 14% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 43% PCPO 33% OLP 13% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 43% PCPO 35% OLP 13% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 42% PCPO 35% OLP 14% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 42% PCPO 35% OLP 15% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 19% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 37% PCPO 35% OLP 18% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 17% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 37% PCPO 36% OLP 17% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 38% PCPO 37% OLP 16% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 38% NDP 36% OLP 16% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 37% NDP 37% OLP 16% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 38% NDP 36% OLP 16% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Windsor West

OLP <1% PCPO 58% NDP 42% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 76% PCPO 21% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 86% PCPO 13% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 87% PCPO 13% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 86% PCPO 14% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 87% PCPO 13% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 89% PCPO 10% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 87% PCPO 13% OLP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 88% PCPO 11% OLP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 84% PCPO 15% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 80% PCPO 19% OLP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 81% PCPO 19% OLP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 80% PCPO 19% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 85% PCPO 14% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 78% PCPO 22% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 85% PCPO 15% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 85% PCPO 15% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 86% PCPO 13% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 81% PCPO 19% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 80% PCPO 19% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 76% PCPO 24% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 77% PCPO 23% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 78% PCPO 22% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 82% PCPO 18% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 96% PCPO 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 80% PCPO 20% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 62% PCPO 38% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 69% PCPO 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 61% PCPO 39% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 53% NDP 47% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 58% NDP 42% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Windsor West



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 41.4% 52.1% 42.1% 36% ± 8% PCPO 14.4% 28.4% 35.3% 38% ± 8% OLP 38.5% 14.8% 13.1% 16% ± 6% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 4% ± 3% GPO 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2% ± 2%